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The End of the Census? Population Patterns Seminar Series supported by Partnership

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Over the next year, ILC-UK, supported by the specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, plans to undertake a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.

We started the series by exploring how proposals to change the way we undertake our Census may impact on our ability to understand our future society.

The Census was first carried out in 1801 - when the official population of Great Britain was revealed for the first time at 9 million. But current plans may mean significant changes to the future collection of data. In September 2013, the ONS initiated a three month consultation on the future of the national Census.

The ONS has proposed two options for reform. Either continuing with a Census each decade, but conducted primarily online; or using annual but smaller surveys in conjunction with existing government administrative data. The motivation is partly cost. However, the ONS has also stressed that any decision needs to be based not on cost, but on how to get the best and most timely information given technological advances.

Census findings are a tool to help governments allocate spending and plan ahead. The smaller annual survey would identify demographic and social trends more quickly but would be less detailed and comprehensive.

The Census has uncovered social phenomena that would otherwise have remained hidden – slum housing, fertility rates and transport among them. For example, the 1971 Census revealed how many people were living without hot running water. These findings can have a marked impact on policy. Danny Dorling, Professor of Human Geography at Oxford University, said “If you want to highlight the inequalities in a society there is no better way than to ask everybody how many bedrooms they have and how many people live in their house.”

The case for replacing the traditional Census with an annual alternative is based on a number of tenets, one of which is cost. The 2011 Census cost £480m; in 2021, the cost is expected to be £800m if the same, paper-based system were used. Replacing the Census would also allow for more timely data for planners and decision makers and could potentially avoid statistical surprises such as the unexpectedly big population growth uncovered by the 2011 Census.

The debate will feed now into an ILC-UK response to the Census consultation.

Throughout this debate and resulting policy brief we explored:

■How important is the Census to policy makers and industry (including the financial services industry)?
■Might the loss of some very local data make identifying exclusion more difficult?
■Might other datasets prove to be better than the Census in helping us understand our population and how it is changing?
■Are there any unintended consequences of scrapping the Census in its current form?
■How can we ensure that reforms to the Census do not risk our understanding of demographic change and ageing?

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The End of the Census? Population Patterns Seminar Series supported by Partnership

  1. 1. The End of the Census? Population Patterns Seminar Series supported by Partnership Thursday 28th November 2013 This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  2. 2. Welcome Norma Cohen Demographic Correspondent Financial Times This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  3. 3. Andy Teague Head of Statistical Development for Beyond 2011 ONS This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  4. 4. International Longevity Centre – UK, Population Patterns Seminar Series, 28 November 2013 The Census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales – Public consultation Andy Teague Beyond 2011
  5. 5. The Beyond 2011 Programme • Census – every 10 years for over 200 years • Review a normal part of the census cycle but the need greater than ever Rapidly changing society Evolving user requirements Technological advances Improved data sources DRIVERS : Cost, efficiency, opportunity, burden CRITERIA : Cost V social and economic benefit of outputs, privacy, public acceptability, risk etc • Government proposes to Parliament (with NS advice) • Beyond 2011 findings will be published in 2014
  6. 6. Government Spending 2010 . Source: guardian.co.uk Cost of the 2011 Census – £50m / year
  7. 7. Beyond 2011 : Two potential approaches A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys
  8. 8. Beyond 2011 : An online census – what it is A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online A compulsory questionnaire for every household (and communal) Majority of responses online (and mix of ways to complete) 1% survey to adjust for those who don‟t respond Administrative data to check the quality Population estimates produced annually using births, deaths, etc Questions and topics similar to 2011 Census – but will consult later
  9. 9. Beyond 2011 : Administrative data and surveys – what it is NHS Patient Register DWP/HMRC Customer Information System Electoral roll (> 17 yrs) School Census (5-15 yrs) Higher Education Statistics Agency data (Students) Birth and Death registrations NO PERSONAL DATA HELD – ALL NAMES & ADDRESSES AND DATES OF BIRTH ANONYMISED A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys Re-use of admin sources to produce annual population estimates Anonymous data from eg NHS, DWP, HMRC, DfE, HESA Annual compulsory 1% survey to adjust for error in the admin sources Annual compulsory 4% survey to collect characteristics information Majority of responses online (and mix of ways to complete) Questions and topics similar to 2011 Census – but will consult later
  10. 10. Beyond 2011 : An online census – what you get A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online Huge richness of data Data for very small areas and very small populations Detailed cross tabulations – nearly 6 billion cells Continuity – tradition A benchmark – a definitive snapshot of the nation - certainty Data that is (or might be) out of date most of the time An illusion of knowledge (some of the time) but the best we‟ve got
  11. 11. Beyond 2011 : The admin data approach – what you get A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys Administrative data and survey approach population estimates
  12. 12. Administrative data and survey option NHS patient register DWP/HMRC Customer information system 1% coverage survey HESA data (students) population estimates
  13. 13. Admin data method lower than 2011 Census Admin data method higher than 2011 Census SPD 5
  14. 14. Population Pyramids using admin data Administrative data method population pyramid with Census comparison: England & Wales Females Males 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Admininstrative data method Census 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Admininstrative data method Census 0.5 0 0 population (millions) SPD 5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
  15. 15. greater than 15% higher between 14% and 15% between 13% and 14% between 12% and 13% between 11% and 12% between 10% and 11% between 9% and 10% between 8% and 9% between 7% and 8% 10 between 6% and 7% 12 between 5% and 6% 14 between 4% and 5% between 3% and 4% between 2% and 3% between 1% and 2% 16 within 1% between -2% and -1% between -3% and -2% between -4% and -3% between -5% and -4% between -6% and -5% between -7% and -6% between -8% and -7% between -9% and -8% between -10% and -9% between -11% and -10% between -12% and -11% between -13% and -12% between -14% and -13% between -15% and -14% % greater than -15% lower Percentage difference between administrative data approach and Census estimates – Output Area level 0% 88% of OAs within +/-10% Ave 30 people 8 6 4 2 0 Note that central bar covers double the range of the other bars
  16. 16. Administrative data and survey approach What you get – population estimates • Annual population estimates – for all geographic levels – down to output areas • Annual estimates age & sex – for all levels down to LSOA • OA level currently unproven but all the signs are that this will be possible • Research is ongoing
  17. 17. Administrative data and survey option NHS patient register DWP/HMRC Customer information system 1% coverage survey 4% characteristics survey HESA data (students) population estimates characteristics
  18. 18. How survey works • Most characteristics not currently covered by an administrative source, although lots of unproven potential • Need compulsory 4% survey • Reliable statistics could be produced for characteristics representing: 800 or more people using 1 year‟s data (4%) 230 or more people using 3 years‟ data (12%) 130 or more people using 5 years‟ data (20%) • Statistics for smaller populations would be produced but lower accuracy (CI > 40%)
  19. 19. 0.9% nationally
  20. 20. 4.4% nationally
  21. 21. Administrative data and survey approach spotting change over time 45,000 HARINGEY Country of Birth: Other EU 40,000 ? 35,000 Estimated annual population 30,000 Non-overlapping significant change 25,000 20,000 Assuming constant rate of change by 2003 a significant change in the „Other EU Country of Birth Category would be identified Estimate 15,000 Lower Bound 10,000 Upper Bound 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  22. 22. Administrative data and survey approach spotting change over time 5,000 WELLINGBOROUGH Tenure: Private rented from landlord or letting agency 4,500 4,000 Estimated annual household population 3,500 3,000 ? Non-overlapping significant change Assuming constant rate of change by 2006 a significant change in the „Private rented from landlord or letting agency‟ Tenure Category would be identified 2,500 2,000 Estimate 1,500 Lower Bound Upper Bound 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  23. 23. Administrative data and survey approach What you get - characteristics Box F: Statistics possible using survey data 1 year’s data (800 threshold) 3 years’ data (230 threshold) 5 years’ data (130 threshold) LA Average number of residents 160,000 Detailed crosstabulations (c 200 cells) Detailed crosstabulations (c 500 cells) Very detailed cross-tabulations (c 1000 cells) MSOA 7,800 Some single Very simple Simple crossvariable statistics cross-tabulations tabulations (c 10 cells) (c 30 cells) (c 50 cells) LSOA 1,600 Not available Some single Some single variable statistics variable statistics (c 5 cells) (c 10 cells) OA 300 Not available Not available Area type Not available
  24. 24. Admin data for characteristics - the potential ?? Key advantage – broad coverage sources allow statistics at lowest geographies ? – every year ? Household composition Income Economic status Health status (index?) Qualifications Industry of employer Carers Ethnicity – various – HMRC / DWP – HMRC / DWP – HSCIC / NHS Wales – Census / DfE / BIS – HMRC? – HMRC / DWP (limited) – NHS (quality?) – HMRC / DWP (limited) (Full list in paper M12)
  25. 25. Comparison of Percentage of Households of Each Size for selected LAs Birmingham Boston Bournemouth Brent Cambridge Camden 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 Cardiff 20 30 40 10 Ceredigion 20 30 40 10 Cheshire East 20 30 40 10 Chesterfield 20 30 40 10 Coventry 20 30 40 East Devon 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 Eastbourne 20 30 40 Forest Heath 10 20 30 40 10 Herefordshire, County of 20 30 40 Hillingdon 10 20 30 40 Kensington and Chelsea 10 20 30 40 Kingston upon Thames Household Size 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 Lambeth 20 30 40 10 Leicester 20 30 40 Manchester 10 20 30 40 10 Newcastle upon Tyne 20 30 40 10 Newham 20 30 Administrative Data Method 40 Northumberland 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 Oxford 20 30 40 10 Powys 20 30 40 10 Reading 20 30 40 10 Richmondshire 20 30 40 Rotherham 10 20 30 40 Stratford-on-Avon 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 Tonbridge and Malling 20 30 40 10 Waltham Forest 20 30 40 10 Warwick 20 30 40 10 Waveney 20 30 40 10 Westminster 20 30 40 Wirral 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Percentage of Households 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Census
  26. 26. The two approaches Advantages and disadvantages
  27. 27. Beyond 2011 : Advantages and disadvantages A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online RISKS • Increasingly difficult to get high response • Other methods of completion required for some households • Considered an invasion of privacy by some STRENGTHS • A rich set of statistics for a range of geographies, a wide range of topics, small populations, detailed cross tabulations • Proven ability to deliver - proven and tested • High degree of continuity • A single, high quality snapshot of the nation WEAKNESSES • Only every 10 years (except for LA population estimates) – reduces usefulness • Costs more than the admin data option £625m per decade - £1.10 per person per year • Build-up and run-down challenging • A burden on all households OPPORTUNITIES • Online completion will be cheaper and more efficient
  28. 28. Beyond 2011 : Advantages and disadvantages STRENGTHS • Continually updated – statistics on an annual basis • Changes and trends identified more quickly • Less expensive - £460m a decade – 80p per person per year • Reduced burden on households WEAKNESSES • Will never produce the detail provided by the census • Data combined for several years – makes date to which it refers more complex • Loss of a single historical record (options to store more – but not yet developed) • Requires new legislation OPPORTUNITIES • Use of admin data can be extended over time • Potential to be more flexible in questions • New opportunities for historic research (in 2121) A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys RISKS • New and untested methods – other countries have taken decades • Some discontinuities • Requires access to admin data • Survey response will be challenging here too • Requires public acceptance of use of admin data
  29. 29. beyond2011@ons.gov.uk
  30. 30. Richard Willetts Director of Longevity Partnership This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  31. 31. The End of the Census? • A commercial perspective Richard Willets • International Longevity Centre – 28 November 2013
  32. 32. Uses of census information 32 • Some use of the detailed information provided – (including data published at Output Area level) • Very widespread use of individual age mid-year population estimates for England & Wales Life expectancy projections used to value pension scheme liabilities and assess insurance company solvency Mortality rate (for each age) = death count / mid-year population estimate 2-d ‘surface’ of mortality rates November 13
  33. 33. Impact of the 2011 Census on population estimates 33 Revision to England & Wales population estimates for mid-year 2011 following 2011 Census, by age 5% Females Males 0% 40-44 45-49 50-54 -5% -10% -15% -20% • Source: own calculations using ONS data November 13 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
  34. 34. Impact on apparent mortality improvement rates Annual rates of mortality improvement, males in England & Wales, 2001-2011, by age, before and after publication of 2011 Census results 3.0% 2010-based 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 80-84 • Source: own calculations using ONS data November 13 85-89 90-94 95-99 34
  35. 35. Impact on apparent mortality improvement rates Annual rates of mortality improvement, males in England & Wales, 2001-2011, by age, before and after publication of 2011 Census results 3.0% 2010-based Revised 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 80-84 • Source: own calculations using ONS data November 13 85-89 90-94 95-99 35
  36. 36. Example consequences 36 • Small but material reductions in the projected lifespans of pensioners/annuitants (typically circa 1%) • Likely to see more significant revisions in the projected number of elderly individuals The ONS publication “What are the chances of reaching age 100?” published in Spring 2012 projected that 12% (95,000) of individuals aged 65 would reach age 100* A more realistic projection – following the publication of Census 2011 results – might be approx 7%-8% (about 60,000 individuals)** • *Source: ONS November 13 • **Source: own calculation
  37. 37. More significant revisions in the US • In 2004 the US Census Bureau projected there would be:• • 114,000 Americans aged 100 plus in 2010 1.1 million centenarians in 2050 • Following the 2010 Census, figures revised to:• • • 53,364 Americans aged 100 plus in 2010 0.59 million centenarians in 2050 Source: Wall Street Journal November 13 37
  38. 38. Options for Beyond 2011 • „Once a decade‟ approach • • Population estimates at high ages can „drift‟ significantly away from reality between censuses But we can be reasonably confident that figures are correct on the census date • „Administrative data‟ approach • • • May provide estimates with more consistent accuracy Could be difficult to monitor degree of accuracy over time Particular challenges in making high age estimates If the latter approach is chosen:need to test accuracy of higher age estimates (ideally with a transition period of „dual running‟) November 13 38
  39. 39. Thank you Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05465261), and Partnership Home Loans Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05108846). Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Partnership Home Loans Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office for both companies is Sackville House, 143-149 Fenchurch Street, London EC3M 6BN. November 13 39
  40. 40. Professor Peter Goldblatt Deputy Director, Department of Epidemiology & Public Health UCL Institute of Health Equity This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  41. 41. Professor Heather Joshi Professor of Economic and Developmental Demography, Emeritus Professor, Centre for Longitudinal Studies Institute of Education University of London This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  42. 42. ‘The End of the Census’ ILC-UK, 28th November 2013 Remarks by Heather Joshi, IOE. cls.ioe.ac.uk
  43. 43. Census Continues FOR Comprehensive Details Geographical granularity locality of disadvantage Relationships- variables -people Households and families – Eg Complex households Carers – co-resident/ others Comparability over time Continue the ONS LS AGAINST Only once in ten years Not timely Cost Irregular work-flow Uncertain success on-line Unpopular?
  44. 44. Admin census + surveys FOR Up to date information Timely Cheaper Could include new variables AGAINST Limited spatial resolution Quality not proven Limited scope for linkage of individual records across people or data sets May not provide continuity or historical record
  45. 45. The best of both Keep census for at least another round Develop admin sources for current updates Enrich admin data sources, developing address and e-mail data bases. Pilot new approaches for more gradual introduction of new modes.
  46. 46. Professor Ludi Simpson Beyond 2011 Independent Working group University of Manchester This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  47. 47. Beyond 2011 Independent Working Group http://popgeog.org/beyond-2011-independent-working-group/ International Longevity Centre 28 November 2013 Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester President British Society for Population Studies 2011-13 (Drawing on comments by many others)
  48. 48. Option: Admin records for population estimates, 4% survey for attributes • Very positive potential for population estimates • Attractive promise of more annual statistics • But lost, by design – Flow data for migration and commuting – Longitudinal data from linking census records – Nationally comparable data for small areas • Risks of new legislation and methods
  49. 49. Option: online census • Maintains a known structure and continuity • Challenges of response, that also affect a survey • Option not developed sufficiently to prove opportunities for efficiency
  50. 50. How will we interpret area attribute data pooled over different numbers of years? • Helpful survey accuracy tool from ONS – 40% CI is very wide for adequate estimates? • Smaller populations (areas, or social groups) – Large Each year – Medium 3 year average – Small 5 years or more average • Key need currently satisfied once each decade: Compare social change in area X with area Y – Often impossible even for averages of less than 10 years – When possible, best data may be from different time periods
  51. 51. Examples of information loss without a census • Causes of death linked to life circumstances – Recent and lifetime: Longitudinal Study • Age-sex-structures national and sub-national – Unproven validation of estimates from administration records (RSS comments; legislation) – Survey insufficient for detailed age structure of social groups within local authorities, even once in 10 years
  52. 52. Examples of information loss without a census • Life chances linked to place – Unable to identify from a survey even over ten years: • Health related to private renting within cities • Overcrowding in housing neighbourhoods • Cultural demand for burial services in towns • Response to emergencies (flooding, industrial, ...) – Affected areas not predictable in advance, local information now from census will not be available
  53. 53. Costs and benefits 2013 prices across one decade • Costs in 2021 – Census option (£625m) more than Survey (£460m): +£165m (ONS consultation paper C1) • Benefits to users – Census option (£797m) more than Survey (£557m): +£240m (preliminary, ONS consultation paper C3) • “Census saves £1bn” – (Head of Census Glen Watson to Commons S&T Cttee 2011)
  54. 54. Biggest decision on UK social statistics for many decades • Neither option alone is optimal – A disaster to rely on administrative data, but stupid not to take advantage of them – Knowledge of small populations is essential to stable government, but a mainly paper census is inefficient
  55. 55. An organised transition to... • A replacement for the Census – Validated attributes from administrative records together with survey modelling, offering mainly equivalent and better products than Census, tested with a mainly online 2021 Census • The Census as a basis for updates – A mainly online census, with legislation to allow samples to be drawn from it – A mainly online census, with legislation to allow a personally updateable record
  56. 56. Consultation to December 13th 2013 • The seriousness with which government will treat their decision • The examples which will be taken into the political and media arenas • Individuals and organisations We are interested in a copy of your comments: AreaStatistics@gmail.com http://popgeog.org/beyond-2011-independent-working-group/ has link to presentations and examples from October 21st event
  57. 57. Phil Rossall Research Manager Age UK Vivienne Avery Research Adviser Age UK This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns
  58. 58. Voluntary Sector use of Census data – supporting the daily work of Age UK Phil Rossall and Vivienne Avery Age UK 28 November 2013
  59. 59. Introduction to Age UK • • • • • • Mission – to improve the lives of older people Social enterprise and charity 7 areas of activity 170 local Age UKs 3000 employees 50,000 volunteers There are over 200,000 charities in the UK and some much bigger than us!
  60. 60. Who uses research and statistics in Age UK? • Campaigns Team: basis of Care in Crisis and Spread the Warmth campaigns • Research Team: in-house research, Economic Monitor, research publications • Media Team: stats and survey-led press releases (e.g. loneliness, winter alerts) • Policy Team: Agenda for Later Life report, policy briefs, submissions to parliamentary committees, consultation responses • Services: stats support for local Age UKs, Information and Advice, special projects (e.g. digital inclusion programme) • Local partners: independent charities, e.g. bids for commissioned services • Enterprises and shops: support services, product choice e.g. mobile phones, customer intelligence (market failure) • Training: nurses, social workers awareness training, empathy
  61. 61. Examples of Age UK Research Impact  Development of the exercise programmes in the NSF falls services (2001)  Development of the DWP ageing strategy in „Opportunity Age‟ (2005)  Development of the Social Exclusion Units strategy in „A Sure Start to Later Life‟ (2006)  Development of treatment for reducing post-event inflammation in thrombotic stroke (2009)  Changes to the diagnosis and treatment of urinary incontinence (2010)  Removal of the default retirement age (2011)
  62. 62. Examples of using LSOA data (1) • Strategic planning • Targeting services for older people - growing focus on loneliness and vulnerability need for data with multiple characteristics
  63. 63. Examples of using LSOA data (2) Combining Census, benefits, transportation & advice service data to help locate a new local office to reach those with the greatest needs Data also used for • Fundraising • Tendering for commissioned services • Impact and evaluation
  64. 64. Local Age UK views on Census proposals “It is already hard to find detailed information using the current available data. The changes would make this even trickier to look at need in localised areas, making it hard to apply for funding and produce evidence or track changes which may be positive in terms of work relating to the prevention agenda. Lack of data may cause further inequalities to develop for populations which are already disadvantaged. This is especially relevant for Stockport as it is very varied - we have some of the wealthiest pockets and some in the top ten IMD. These pockets are small so would cease to be significant.” Age UK Stockport “It seems shocking to me that HMG are so poor at capturing and manipulating reliable current data. Tesco knows my age, my politics, my favourite television programme and in all likelihood the hour of my death.” Age UK Northampton
  65. 65. Ready for Ageing? Future Census and population statistics must address • Population growth • Life expectancy gap • Changing services  Health & social care – aiding independent living  Urban planning / Housing  Retirement income / planning financially for older age  Addressing inequality – interplay between age, gender, generation & wealth
  66. 66. Population Growth and Life Expectancy Gap Living with long-term / multiple conditions (dementia) Local Authority level data masks the detailed picture Medical records provide data on the condition rather than it‟s impact on daily life
  67. 67. Our thoughts on ONS proposals Internet Census • • • We know the methodology works down to low levels The data are rich and valuable Should be easy to get >16% response overall but will need to take care with 80+ age group – numbers who have never used the internet are increasing Admin records/Survey Census • Timeliness benefits – by 2010 much unreliable data – poor resource allocation and decision making • Survey potential for more detail at local authority level but compulsory? Can merged survey years really produce reliable LSOA data? • Merged admin data should produce better neighbourhood data over time but concerned there will be a data gap in short term
  68. 68. Our conclusions • Small State v Big Society We need the best information possible –little difference between an annual cost of 80p & £1.10 per person given costs of market failure due to lack of information. NHS annual budget per person is c£2,000 + education, transport etc • Before taking a final decision we need a better impact assessment beyond population numbers for local authorities – more evidence of how combined survey and admin data will measure up at smaller areas • We need a better development programme and more dual running to enable us to decide when not if a traditional Census can be replaced. That programme should include identifying broader future information needs not just for ageing but more widely.
  69. 69. Thank you! To contact us: vivienne.avery@ageuk.org.uk phil.rossall@ageuk.org.uk
  70. 70. Panel Debate and Q&A
  71. 71. The End of the Census? Population Patterns Seminar Series supported by Partnership Thursday 28th November 2013 This event is kindly supported by Partnership #populationpatterns

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