This document analyzes 20 years of rainfall data from 1999 to 2018 in Badulla District, Sri Lanka. Some key findings include: - Annual rainfall in Badulla District averaged 1823.9 mm over the period, with an increasing trend of 15.8 mm/year. About 60% of years saw below average rainfall. - The Northeast monsoon season (December-February) saw the highest average rainfall at 583.2 mm, contributing about 32% of the annual total. The Southwest monsoon season (May-September) showed an increasing trend of 14.8 mm/year. - Monthly rainfall varied significantly, with November typically seeing the most at 286 mm on average. July typically saw

1. International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development-– Volume 2 Issue 5, Sep – Oct 2019
Available at www.ijsred.com
ISSN : 2581-7175 ©IJSRED: All Rights are Reserved Page 348
Analysis of 20 Years Rainfall Data from 1999 to
2018 in Badulla District: A Case Study
N. R. A. M. Ruwangika*, C. N. Hettiarachchi**, G. M. L. P. Aponsu***
(*Department of Physical Sciences and Technology, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka.
Email: ruwangika.@appsc.sab.ac.lk)
(** Center for Computer Studies, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka.
Email :chathurani.@appsc.sab.ac.lk)
(***Department of Physical Sciences and Technology, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka.
Email: aponsul@appsc.sab.ac.lk)
----------------------------------------************************----------------------------------
Abstract:
The Climate in Sri Lanka is tropical and consists of very characteristic in dry and wet seasons. As
compared with the land area of Sri Lanka, Badulla district covers 4.4 %. Badulla district is a capital city of
Uva province and it consists of 15 AGA divisions and 1960 villages. Badulla district is an agricultural
district where vegetables, tea, fruits, and paddy are cultivated. The district has been separated into two
portions as Upper region and Lower region considering the climatic and geographical features. The upper
region of the district is eminent for tea plantation and vegetable cultivation while the lower region is
famous for paddy agriculture. Changing climate is an uncountable cause of worry for all over the world
especially rain-fed developing country. The fluctuated rainfall pattern harmfully affects their crops. The
attempt was made to study the variation of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over Badulla district of
Sri Lanka during twenty years’ period from 1999 to 2018. Annual rainfall trends over the Badulla District
showed the increasing trends of about 15.8 mm/Year. Near about 12 years (60 %) shows annual rainfall
less than that of mean annual rainfall and 08 years (40 %) show annual rainfall more that of mean annual
rainfall. First Inter-Monsoon Season (March-April), Southwest-monsoon Season (May-September) and
Second Inter-Monsoon Season (October-November) rainfall trends show the decreasing rainfall trends
while Northeast-Monsoon Season (December-February) rainfall trends shows the increasing rainfall trend.
Keywords —Rainfall, Annual, Seasonal, Monthly, Rainfall trends
----------------------------------------************************----------------------------------
I. INTRODUCTION
Water is one of the most important substances on
the Earth. It is vigorous for life process of while it
is a basis of power for living being. There is no
substitute for it. Beyond above, water serves many
other useful purposes for domestic consumption,
agriculture, industry and so on. The main vital
source of water in World is the rain which has a
dramatic consequence mainly on agriculture.
Vegetations get their water supply from natural
sources as well as through the irrigation. The yield
of crops in rainfed areas depends mainly on the
rainfall pattern. The studying of these patterns is
very important. It makes significant to predict the
probability of amount of rainfall based on the past
records of hydrological data using statistical
analysis. By appropriating a frequency distribution
to the set of rainfall data, the probability of
incidences of random parameter can be calculated.
RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS

2. International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development-– Volume 2 Issue 5, Sep – Oct 2019
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II. STUDY AREA
The present study is carried out at Badulla district
(Fig.1) located in Uva province. The region has a
latitude and longitude of 6.9934° N and 81.0550° E,
respectively and Elevation is 670 m. Agriculture is
the main occupation in this area and almost
encircled by the BaduluOya River. This area is
surrounded by tea plantations and also includes
paddy, rubber, banana and vegetables. In Badulla
district, it receives rainfall from Inter, northeast and
southwest Monsoons. The daily rainfall data is
collected from the Meteorological Department of
Sri Lanka, for a period of 20 years from 1999 to
2018. These data is used for the Annual, Monthly
and Seasonal Rainfall data analysis.
Fig. 1Location map of the study area
III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY
The daily rainfall measured in millimetre (mm) of
Badulla district for a period of twenty years from
1999 to 2018 was collected from Metrological
Department of Sri Lanka because this study was
performed separately for annual, seasonal and
monthly rainfall. The monthly rainfall was
calculated by taking the total of daily rainfall of the
particular month while seasonal and annual rainfall
were calculated by taking the total of monthly
rainfalls of the particular season and seasonal
rainfalls for the particular year, respectively. And
finally, average values of each three parameters for
the said period were calculated. First Inter-
Monsoon Season (March-April), Southwest-
Monsoon Season (May-September), Second Inter-
Monsoon Season (October-November) and
Northeast-Monsoon Season (December-February)
time series of all parameters under study rainfall are
prepared and analyzing of data were done using
Minitab software.
The Mean, Standard Deviation (St. Dev),
Variance, Coefficient of Variation (Coef. Var),
Minimum, Maximum, Mean of the Squared
Successive Differences (MSSD) of the monthly,
seasonal and annual rainfall contributed for the
entire period of study (1969-2010) is computed.
IV. RAINFALL FEATURES
Rainfall characteristics of Badulla district are
shown in table 1. Annual rainfall over Badulla
district from 1999 to 2018 is 1823.9 mm with a
standard deviation 385.5 mm. The coefficient of
variation of annual rainfall for Badulla is 21.13%.
The seasonal rainfall for First Inter-Monsoon
Season (March-April), Southwest-Monsoon Season
(May- September), Second Inter-Monsoon Season
(October-November), and Northeast-Monsoon
Season (December-February) are 313.7mm, 378.0
mm, 544.7 mm, and 583.2 mm, respectively.
Maximum rainfall was observed in Northeast-
Monsoon Season which contributes near about
32.22%. First Inter-Monsoon Season, Southwest-
Monsoon Season, Second Inter-Monsoon Season
contribute nearly 17.2 %, 20.73 % and 29.86 %
respectively to annual rainfall.
The Maximum coefficient of variation was
observed in February and it is 101.64 % which
mean rainfall is more variable in February. The
Minimum coefficient of variation is observed in
November and it is 34.59% which means that
rainfall is more November. Maximum monthly
rainfall was observed in November, December,
October, January, and April are 286.00 mm,
269.85mm, 258.66 mm, 201.34 mm and 201.21 mm
respectively. November contributes highest in
monthly rainfall and it is 15.68% to the annual
rainfall. Rainfall in July (47.46 mm) is least and
contributes only 2.60 % to the annual rainfall.

3. International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development
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TABLE I
RAINFALL CHARACTERISTICS IN MILLIMETERS (
BADULLA DISTRICT
A. Analysis of Annual Rainfall Trends
Annual rainfall trends over the Badulla District
showed the increasing trends of about 15.8
mm/Year. Near about 12 years (60 %) shows
annual rainfall less than that of mean annual
and 08 years (40 %) show annual rainfall more that
of mean annual rainfall. The maximum rainfall was
observed in 2001 and it is 2525.1 mm. The
minimum rainfall was observed in 2010 and it was
1034.7 mm. As considered with the departure of
annual rainfall from normal over Badulla,
maximum negative departure was shown in 2016
which was -789.225 mm/year. The maximum
positive departure was shown in 2011 and it was
701.175 mm/year. The minimum departure was
3.975 mm/year and it was shown in 2018. Annual
rainfall shows 21.13 mm/year coefficient of
variation from 1999 to 2018.
Variable Mean
St.D
ev
Varia
nce
Coef.
Var
Minim
um
January 201.3
132.
5
17562.
3 65.82 24.7
February 116.3
117.
5
13800.
3 100.97 17.4
March 112.5 84.8 7182.9 75.32 3.4
April 201.2
103.
1
10633.
3 51.25 35.7
May 114.4 86 7395.9 75.2 0.4
June 47.6 47.9 2295.6 100.61 2.7
July 47.46
35.6
8
1273.1
8 75.18 10.3
August 69.9 49.1 2408.3 70.24 3
September 98.7 60.7 3690.3 61.55 0.5
October 258.7
142.
5
20310.
2 55.1 60.1
November 286 98.9 9786.3 34.59 137.1
December 269.9
144.
4 20861 53.52 65
First Inter-
Monsoon Se
ason 555.9
178.
4 31825 32.09 241.7
Southwest -
monsoon Se
ason 1748 472
22239
7 26.97 1048
Second
Inter-
Monsoon Se
ason 2304 642
41176
9 27.85 1290
Northeast -
Monsoon Se
ason 4608 1283
16470
75 27.85 2579
Annual 1823.9
385.
5
14859
0.9 21.13 1034.7
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ACTERISTICS IN MILLIMETERS (mm) OF
Annual rainfall trends over the Badulla District
showed the increasing trends of about 15.8
mm/Year. Near about 12 years (60 %) shows
annual rainfall less than that of mean annual rainfall
and 08 years (40 %) show annual rainfall more that
of mean annual rainfall. The maximum rainfall was
observed in 2001 and it is 2525.1 mm. The
minimum rainfall was observed in 2010 and it was
1034.7 mm. As considered with the departure of
ainfall from normal over Badulla,
maximum negative departure was shown in 2016
789.225 mm/year. The maximum
positive departure was shown in 2011 and it was
701.175 mm/year. The minimum departure was
3.975 mm/year and it was shown in 2018. Annual
rainfall shows 21.13 mm/year coefficient of
Fig. 2 Annual Rainfall Trend
Fig. 3 Departure of Annual Rainfall from normal
B. Seasonal Rainfall Trends
During the past 20 years, seasonal rainfall has
been considerably changed. Considering with
coefficient of variation in seasons First Inter
Monsoon season, it shows the highest variation as
32.09 mm/year and Southwest
Second Inter-Monsoon Season, Northeast
Monsoon Season shows 26.97 mm/year, 27.85
mm/year, 27.85 mm/year coefficient of variation
respectively.
First Inter-Monsoon season rainfall shows a small
increasing trend of 0.15 mm/year. The minimum
First Inter-Monsoon seasonal rainfall
2014 and maximum First Inter
rainfall was shown in 2016. The respective values
are 241.7 mm/year and 947.9 mm/year. In May to
September (Southwest-monsoon Season) shows a
comparatively high increasing trend of 14.8
mm/year. 1047.9 mm/year and 2815.3 mm/year
were shown as a minimum and maximum
202012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
Year
Rainfall(mm)
Annual Rainf
Linear Trend Mo
Yt = 1658 + 15.Maxim
um
MSS
D
579.7
20812
.2
538
14747
.7
355.1
7503.
9
406.4 10843
309.4
6703.
9
188.8
3022.
3
162.6
1750.
72
186.7
2401.
6
229.6
4272.
9
508.5
20433
.6
470
11867
.1
669.5
25388
.2
947.9
34845
.7
2815
23506
5
3763
44387
2
7526
17754
89
2525.1
17687
7.5
Volume 2 Issue 5, Sep – Oct 2019
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Page 350
Rainfall Trend
Departure of Annual Rainfall from normal
During the past 20 years, seasonal rainfall has
been considerably changed. Considering with
coefficient of variation in seasons First Inter-
Monsoon season, it shows the highest variation as
32.09 mm/year and Southwest-Monsoon Season,
eason, Northeast -
Monsoon Season shows 26.97 mm/year, 27.85
mm/year, 27.85 mm/year coefficient of variation
Monsoon season rainfall shows a small
increasing trend of 0.15 mm/year. The minimum
Monsoon seasonal rainfall was shown in
2014 and maximum First Inter-Monsoon seasonal
rainfall was shown in 2016. The respective values
are 241.7 mm/year and 947.9 mm/year. In May to
monsoon Season) shows a
comparatively high increasing trend of 14.8
047.9 mm/year and 2815.3 mm/year
were shown as a minimum and maximum
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
201312
MAPE 17
MAD 288
MSD 132904
Accuracy Measures
Actual
Fits
Variable
fall
odel
.8×t

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2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
MAPE 21
MAD 353
MSD 203982
Accuracy Measures
Year
Southwest-monsoonSeason
Actual
Fits
Variable
Southwest -monsoon Season
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 1593 + 14.8×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
MAPE 29.5
MAD 135.3
MSD 30233.1
Accuracy Measures
Year
FirstInter-monsoonSeason
Actual
Fits
Variable
First Inter-monsoon Season
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 554.3 + 0.15×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
MAPE 32
MAD 617
MSD 623962
Accuracy Measures
Year
SecondInter-monsoonSeason
Actual
Fits
Variable
Second Inter-monsoon Season
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 2146 + 15.1×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
MAPE 48
MAD 1586
MSD 4113854
Accuracy Measures
Year
Northeast-monsoonSeason
Actual
Fits
Variable
Northeast -monsoon Season
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 4136 + 45.0×t
Southwest -Monsoon Seasonal rainfalls in the year
2016 and year 2014 respectively. Long term Second
Inter-Monsoon Seasonal rainfall shows 15.1
mm/year increasing trend with a maximum in 2014
and minimum in 1016 as 4155.25 mm/year and
947.44 mm/year respectively. Northeast -Monsoon
Season in December to February shows a
comparatively very high increasing trend with 45.0
mm/year rainfall. The maximum Northeast -
Monsoon Seasonal rainfall was shown in 2014 as
9377.43 mm/ year and the minimum was shown in
2016 as 1250.42 mm/year.
Fig. 4 FirstInter-Monsoon Season Rainfall Trend
Fig. 5 Southwest -Monsoon Season Rainfalls
Fig. 6 Second Inter-Monsoon Season Rainfall
Fig. 7 Northeast -Monsoon Season Rainfall Trend
C. Monthly Rainfall Trends
Characteristics of monthly rainfall over Badulla
have been calculated for individual months by
fitting them to the linear trends. Maximum monthly
rainfall was observed for November, December and
October and they were 5173.1 mm, 5397 mm and
5720.1 mm respectively. The minimum monthly
rainfall was observed in July, June and August and
they were 949.2 mm, 952.4 mm and 1397.3 mm
correspondingly.
Analysing the fitted linear trends, four months
(33.33%) shows the decreasing monthly rainfall
trend and eight months (66.66%) shows the
increasing monthly rainfall trends. The negative
maximum monthly rainfall trends were shown in

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2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
MAPE 81.6
MAD 86.7
MSD 15300.9
Accuracy Measures
Year
january
Actual
Fits
Variable
january
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 269.1 - 6.45×t
January and November. The minimum negative
rainfall trend was shown in September and it was -
0.66. Within the other Eight months May and
October shows maximum positive monthly rainfall
trends, respectively given by 8.15 mm and 6.35 mm.
For monthly rainfall, maximum coefficient of
variation was observed for February and June and
they were 100.97 % and 100.61 % respectively and
minimum coefficient of variation was observed for
November and it was 34.59 %. This means that
monthly rainfall was more variable in February and
June it is more stable in November.
Fig. 8 January Rainfall Trend
Fig. 9 February Rainfall Trend
Fig. 10MarchRainfall Trend
Fig. 11AprilRainfall Trend
Fig. 12 MayRainfall Trend
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
400
300
200
100
0
MAPE 202.84
MAD 58.86
MSD 6372.59
Accuracy Measures
Year
march
Actual
Fits
Variable
March
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 73.8 + 3.68×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
400
300
200
100
0
MAPE 80.24
MAD 78.74
MSD 9952.04
Accuracy Measures
Year
April
Actual
Fits
Variable
April
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 178.9 + 2.12×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
MAPE 1841.75
MAD 58.48
MSD 4815.90
Accuracy Measures
Year
May
Actual
Fits
Variable
May
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 28.8 + 8.15×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
MAPE 109.5
MAD 76.9
MSD 13009.7
Accuracy Measures
Year
february
Actual
Fits
Variable
february
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 98.1 + 1.74×t

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2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
200
150
100
50
0
MAPE 269.95
MAD 34.54
MSD 2149.22
Accuracy Measures
Year
August
Actual
Fits
Variable
August
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 91.3 - 2.04×t
Fig. 13 JuneRainfall Trend
Fig. 14 JulyRainfall Trend
Fig. 15 AugustRainfall Trend
Fig. 16September Rainfall Trend
Fig. 17October Rainfall Trend
Fig. 18 November Rainfall Trend
Fig. 19 DecemberRainfall Trend
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
200
150
100
50
0
MAPE 261.94
MAD 35.10
MSD 2113.54
Accuracy Measures
Year
June
Actual
Fits
Variable
June
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 32.7 + 1.42×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MAPE 93.75
MAD 27.93
MSD 1153.60
Accuracy Measures
Year
July
Actual
Fits
Variable
July
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 33.8 + 1.30×t
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
250
200
150
100
50
0
MAPE 1032.19
MAD 47.11
MSD 3491.20
Accuracy Measures
Year
september
Actual
Fits
Variable
September Rainfall Trend
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 105.7 - 0.66×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
500
400
300
200
100
0
MAPE 69.9
MAD 107.5
MSD 17954.0
Accuracy Measures
Year
October
Actual
Fits
Variable
October
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 192.0 + 6.35×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
500
400
300
200
100
MAPE 30.45
MAD 78.69
MSD 8916.59
Accuracy Measures
Year
November
Actual
Fits
Variable
November
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 321.5 - 3.38×t
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
MAPE 63.0
MAD 106.9
MSD 19403.7
Accuracy Measures
Year
December
Actual
Fits
Variable
December
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 232.8 + 3.53×t
Fig. 15 AugustRainfall Trend

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V. CONCLUSIONS
The aim of the present study was to identify rainfall
trends for the period of 1999 to 2018 over Badulla
district. Annual rainfall trends showed a
significantly increasing trend of about 15.8
mm/Year. Near about 12 years (60 %) shows
annual rainfall less than that of mean annual rainfall
and 08 years (40 %) show annual rainfall more that
of mean annual rainfall. The maximum rainfall was
observed in 2001 and it is 2525.1 mm and
minimum rainfall was observed in 2010 and it was
1034.7 mm.
The minimum First Inter-Monsoon seasonal rainfall
was shown in 2014 and maximum First Inter-
Monsoon seasonal rainfall was shown in 2016. The
respective values are 241.7 mm/year and 947.9
mm/year.
In May to September (Southwest-Monsoon season)
shows a comparatively high increasing trend of
14.8 mm/year. 1047.9 mm/year and 2815.3mm/year
were shown as minimum and maximum Southwest-
monsoon seasonal rainfalls in the year 2016 and
year 2014 respectively.
Long term Second Inter-Monsoon seasonal rainfall
shows 15.1 mm/year increasing trend with a
maximum in 2014 and minimum in 1016 as
4155.25 mm/year and 947.44 mm/year respectively.
Northeast-Monsoon Season in December to
February shows a comparatively very high
increasing trend with 45.0 mm/year rainfall. The
maximum Northeast-Monsoon seasonal rainfall was
shown in 2014 as 9377.43 mm/ year and the
minimum was shown in 2016 as 1250.42 mm/year.
Characteristics of monthly rainfall over Badulla
have been calculated for individual months by
fitting them to the linear trends. Maximum monthly
rainfall was observed for November, December and
October and they were 5173.1 mm, 5397 mm and
5720.1 mm respectively. The minimum monthly
rainfall was observed in July, June and August and
they were 949.2 mm, 952.4 mm and 1397.3 mm
correspondingly.
Analyzing the fitted linear trends, four months
(33.33%) shows the decreasing monthly rainfall
trend and eight Months (66.66%) shows the
increasing monthly rainfall trends. The negative
maximum monthly rainfall trends were shown in
January and November. The minimum negative
rainfall trend was shown in September and it was -
0.66. Within the other, eight months May and
October shows maximum positive monthly rainfall
trends, respectively given by 8.15 mm and 6.35
mm.
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