Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition Ding Qiuyu, UCL Energy Institute 16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino

1. Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
——Bridging the Gap Between NDC Commitments and Global
Climate Imperatives
DING QIUYU
UCL Energy Institute
qiuyu.ding.20@ucl.ac.uk
UCL Energy Institute | UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources
WINTER 2023 ETSAP MEETING
17th Nov, 2023

2. Project Contributor:
Dr. Anandarajah, Gabrial
Dr. McDowall, Will
Research Objectives:
Combining energy system modelling output with MCDM
identical plausible pathways to decarbonise China energy
system.
UCL Energy Institute | UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources
Dr. Freeman, Rachel
This presentation focusses on various VRE scenarios under different climate
policies.

3. 1. Background – The case of China
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Installed capacity in 2020 (GW)
Total CO2 emission in 2020 (Mt) VRE ? (Wind+Solar)
NDC
(1) Carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutral in 2060; (2) Reduce its CO2 emissions per unit of GDP
by over 65% compared to 2005 levels; (3) Non fossil-fuels make up about 25% of its primary energy
consumption; (4) Forest carbon stock by 6 billion cubic meters; (5) Wind and Solar energy exceeding
1200 GW.
282
118
62
38.5 24.4 10.8
254
75
53 39.3
13.4 21
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
China United
States
Germany India United
Kingdom
Italy
Wind Solar
Unpredictable, Low short-run cost, Certain located, Variable
Variable Renewable Energy

4. 2. Model TIAM-UCL

5. 2. Model
Scenario Name Description Global Limit Carbon Emission
NDC NDC - 2030 - -
NDC-LTP
(Long Term Policy)
NDC - 2030
+ China 2060 CO2
Net-zero
- -
2 ℃ NDC - 2030 2 D IPCC 2D CO2 Budget
1.5 ℃ NDC - 2030 1.5 D IPCC 1.5D CO2 Budget
VRE rate
Constraints

6. Solar PV Investment cost ($/GW)
Onshore Wind Investment Cost ($/GW)
- Investment Cost - Lifetime -
- Efficiency –Available factor
- Region-level NDC 2030 target
- Region-level GHG/CO2 Net-zero target

7. 3. Results China’s CO2 Emission Comparisons across Scenarios
NDC NDC-LTP
1.5 °C 2 °C
- NDC-LTP: considerable uncertainty
concerning the achievement of net-zero
emissions by 2060.
- In the 2°C scenario, net-zero emissions
are projected to be reached by 2080; in
the 1.5°C scenario, net-zero is anticipated
by 2050.
- The industrial sector accounts for
substantial CO2 emissions and requires
significant deployment of CCS and BECCS
for decarbonization.

8. Energy Consumption by fuel in different sector
- Early electrification happening in residential land commercial sectors followed by industry and
transport.
- The commercial and residential sectors are more amenable to electrification and decarbonization.

9. Energy Consumption by fuel in different sector
- The industrial sector needs to accelerate electrification before 2040.
- Fossil fuels still dominate in transport sector during the first half of the century.
- In stricter carbon emission scenarios, the transportation sector increasingly requires
hydrogen energy for transformation.

10. China's CO2 Emissions under Different VRE Rates and Scenarios(Gt)
- In the NDC-LTP scenario, higher VRE rates
significantly lower the pressure to achieve net-zero
by 2060.
- For the 2°C target, high VRE rates marginally
decrease systemic carbon emissions.
- Initial VRE rate constraints lead to increased
emissions for the 1.5 °C target, with high VRE
scenarios reducing emissions after 2055.
3. VRE Results
NDC
NDC- LTP VRE Sets
LTP – VRE 95%
2 ℃
1.5 ℃

11. China’s CO2 Emission by sector across Scenarios
Electricity Industry Transport
- NDC scenario: Power
sector has significant
emission reduction
potential with synergistic
effects reducing carbon
emissions in the hard-to-
decarbonise industry and
transport sectors.
- Temperature and carbon
emission constraint
scenarios: limited VRE
lead to substantial
restrictions post-2050,
limiting emissions space in
the industry and transport
sectors.

12. China’s Power installed capacity under
Different VRE Rates and Scenarios in 2050
(GW)
- The total installed capacity is directly proportional
to the VRE rate.
- With low VRE rates, coal power sees an increase in
capacity due to cost advantages.
- Under the 1.5°C scenario, biomass plays a more
significant role in the mix at lower VRE rates
compared to other scenarios.

13. - As the world's second-largest economy and the largest consumer of primary energy and
CO2 emitter, China also leads globally in installed wind and solar capacity.
- Solar PV and wind energy are set for rapid development in the future, but the specific
VRE (Variable Renewable Energy) rates are subject to discussion.
- The rapid development of VRE can have a synergistic effect on reducing carbon
emissions in the industrial and transportation sectors, aiding in decarbonization.
- Under scenarios with VRE limitations, the proportion of coal and biomass in the energy
mix is likely to increase.
- The emissions under the NDC-LTP are close to those in the 2°C but are associated with
significant uncertainty. Early planning for higher development of wind and solar energy
can reduce the uncertainty surrounding the net-zero targets.
4. Conclusions

14. VRE-Induced Uncertainty at Multi-Region Nation Level
Research:
TIMES-Reliability Assessment for China
Examining the Influence of Varied Variable Renewable Energy on the
Reliability of Energy Systems
One more thing: Later Research
Reliability
assessment

15. Thanks for your
listening
DING QIUYU
UCL Energy Institute
qiuyu.ding.20@ucl.ac.uk

16. Appendix
◼ Ethics approval
◼ Climate module
◼ Environmental case
◼ Multi-criteria analysis
◼ Model Structure
◼ CCS
TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION PROGRAMME BY IEA
WINTER 2023 SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING

17. Appendix - TIAM-UCL

18. Energy Storage
Chinese Power Energy Storage Market Capacity (by the end of 2021
Global Power Energy Storage Market Capacity (by the end of 2021
Total:46.1 GW
Total: 209 GW
China’s Government Target:
(Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030)
• 30 GW new types of energy storage – 2025
• hydro 120 GW pumped-storage - 2030

19. Energy Storage in TIAM-UCL
Attribute:
- Investment Cost
- Lifetime
- Efficiency
TIAM-UCL Storage
Source:
- Irena
- NREL
- UK-TIMES

20. Appendix - TIAM-UCL

21. Appendix - TIAM-UCL

22. Appendix - TIAM-UCL

23. Radiative forcing:
Temperature increase:
Appendix - Climate Module in TIAM-UCL

24. Appendix - CCS in TIAM-UCL
◼ DAC
◼ BECCS

25. Appendix – Multi-criteria Analysis

26. Appendix – Multi-criteria Analysis

27. Appendix – Environmental Case

28. Appendix – Ethic Approval
1) Low-Risk Ethics Application
2) Participants: professors, energy experts, directors et al…
3) Interview

29. H2 generation
Electrolysis
SMR
Gasification
(Gas)
ELCCD
GASNGA
BIOBSL
Blend with gas
Electrolysis
Electrolysis
ELCC
Grid electricity
Transport (Bus, HGV,
etc)
End-use
(industry,
commercial)
Technology (Coal)
Technology (Coal+CCS)
Technology (Gas)
Technology (Gas+CCS)
Coal
Coal
Gas
Gas
Liquefaction
H2 export
Long- distance Transportation
(Pipeline)
Truck1
Pipeline Liquefaction
Distribution
network
(transport,
blend with gas)
Truck2
Technology+CCS
Technology
Biomass
Biomass Upstream (for liquid
fuel production)
Truck/ship
Technology (gas)
Technology + CCS
Electrolysis
Electricity
production
Gas
Gas
Electricity
Liquefaction
Electricity
Truck
Blend with gas
Refuelling
station
(transport and
industry)
Technology + CCS
Technology
Biomass
Biomass
Distribution to
industry, residential
and commercial
sectors
Centralised large scale H2 generation
Centralised mid-scale generation
Small scale (decentralised) generation
Appendix – H2 generation

30. H2 infrastructure
Centralised-
Large
Long distance pipeline-
Gas. H2
Centralised-
Medium
Liquefaction
Long distance
Truck-L
Liquefaction
Liquefaction
Distribution
Liquid H2
Distribution
Gaseous H2
Refuelling
station H2-G
End-use
sectors
(IND, RES,
COM)
H2-decentralised
End-use
Transport
(Car, bus,
truck, air,
ship, etc)
Gas
Biomass
ELCC
ELCD
Blend with
natural gas
Natural
gas
H2-L
H2-G
Coal
Gas
Biomass
Gas
Biomass
electricity
Distribution
and gasification
Import/Export
Appendix – H2 generation