Jeremy Leggett speaks at the Hillary Symposium on the 'Triple Crunch': economy, peak oil, and the environment

1. The triple crunch
and the road to Copenhagen
and beyond
Jeremy Leggett
2nd Hillary Institute seminar
“The Real New Deal”
5 June 2009

2. We are living through a triple crunch
• Financial …the credit crunch
- the banking industry had its asset assessment
systemically wrong
• Carbon …the climate crunch
- a stable climate is not even valued as an asset
in our current operating paradigm
• Oil …the energy crunch
- could the energy industry have its asset
assessment systemically wrong too?

3. We are living through a triple crunch
• Financial …the credit crunch
- the banking industry had its asset assessment
systemically wrong
• Carbon …the climate crunch
- a stable climate is not even valued as an asset
in our current operating paradigm
• Oil …the energy crunch
- could the energy industry have its asset
assessment systemically wrong too?

5. “as long as
the music
is playing,
you’ve got
to get up
and dance.
We’re still
dancing.”

7. Welcome to the AGM

8. We are living through a triple crunch
• Financial …the credit crunch
- the banking industry had its asset assessment
systemically wrong
• Carbon …the climate crunch
- a stable climate is not even valued as an asset
in our current operating paradigm
• Oil …the energy crunch
- could the energy industry have its asset
assessment systemically wrong too?

10. Stern Review, 2006
430 ppm CO2e
today means
1C minimum

11. We are living through a triple crunch
• Financial …the credit crunch
- the banking industry had its asset assessment
systemically wrong
• Carbon …the climate crunch
- a stable climate is not even valued as an asset
in our current operating paradigm
• Oil …the energy crunch
- could the energy industry have its asset
assessment systemically wrong too?

12. 9
199
h
arc
M
9
200
ril
Ap

13. October 29th 2008
The first multi-company
attempt to sound an
alarm bell on
premature peak oil
www.peakoiltaskforce.net

14. billions of barrels USA 48 production versus discovery
30 10000
US-48
9000
25 8000
Production
P ro d u c tio n k b /d
D is c o v e ry G b
20 7000
6000
15 5000
4000
10 3000
5 2000
1000
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 ASPO
Source:

15. billions of barrels USA 48 production versus discovery
30 10000
US-48
9000
25 8000
P ro d u c tio n k b /d
20 7000
D is c o v e ry
6000
15 5000
4000
10 Production 3000
5 2000
1000
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 ASPO
Source:

16. Global production of oil and gas
50
Non-con Gas
Gas
Production, Gboe/a
40
NGLs
billion barrels
Polar Oil
30 Deep Water
Heavy
20 Regular
10
0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

17. Global production of oil and gas
50
Non-con Gas
Gas
billion Gboe/a
40
NGLs
Production, barrels
Polar Oil
30 Deep Water
Heavy
20 Regular
10
0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Source: ASPO

18. mbd
The IEA is also concerned The gap to make
up for depletion in
100 existing fields:
Six Saudi Arabias
Global production of oil
95
90
85
80
75
Source: IEA WEO 2008
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

19. Global production of oil
mbd
The IEA is also concerned The gap to make
up for depletion in
100 existing fields:
Six Saudi Arabias
Global production of oil
95
90
85
80
75
Source: IEA WEO 2008
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

20. • ..y My Picturesuntitled.bmp
Dubai 1990

21. • ..y My Picturesuntitled.bmp
Dubai 2007

22. Concerns pursuant to the 2005 US DoE
Hirsch report of on oil security
1. Oil supplies and GDPs are coupled in normal times, and
when sudden shortages have happened
2. World production has been on a plateau since 2004,
because additions of new capacity are not exceeding
depletion
3. Recession is meaning cutbacks in oil exploration and
development investment: a recipe for declining world oil
production in just a few years
4. This means global GDP will be dragged down by
descending global oil production, causing ever deepening
recession
5. The lag time for mitigation is long: alternative
technologies will take at least a decade to have major effect
6. This means double recession, prolonged, before recovery
Source: Bob Hirsch, April 2009

23. ITPOES recommendations: 1. National
1. Appraise the risk from premature peak oil, and plan
proactive and reactive strategies
2. Draw up a national energy plan to deal with the
premature peak-oil threat
• maximise energy conservation and energy efficiency
• accelerate investment in renewable energy and sustainable
renewable fuels
• national skills programmes in energy
• expand national oil and gas programmes (if possible)
3. There is no time to wait in drawing up and
implementing a new national energy mobilization plan
including:
• The renewables industry is confident that 100% renewables energy
supply is possible in 20-40 years. Give them the opportunity to prove
it.
• Nuclear decisions should be taken rapidly, and governments should
ensure that uncertainties over the nuclear renaissance should not act
as barriers to the mobilization of energy efficiency and renewables.

24. Mobilisation rates
Climate Peak oil Peak oil
change policy “descent” “collapse”
response scenario scenario
scenario
End goal for Within 42 Within < 20 Within < 10
replacement years years years
of oil use
Annual rates
of oil 2.38% c. 5% >10%
replacement
with respect
to 2008
Source: ITPOES 2008

25. ITPOES recommendations: 2. International
1. Call for, or enact, greater transparency about oil
reserves
including
• minimal programme of verification by a small United Nations team
as a confidence-building measure has been proposed by G-8
governments.
2. Combine multi-lateral efforts to deal with oil depletion
and climate change in the post-Kyoto climate negotiations
including
• rapid trialing of CCS
• unconventional oil should not be exploited if its net carbon footprint
is higher than that of conventional oil
3. Accelerate “green new deals” already underway, at
home and abroad.

26. Mobilisation forces
Governments Business People
Survival
trajectory
Status quo
trajectory

27. 0 8
20
ly
Governments Ju
21
• Green new
Survival
deals
• Grey new
Status quo
deals
www.nef.org

28. The potential for energy efficiency and RE
Invest £ 1 billion:
….create 20-40,000 clean jobs
….save minimum £ hundreds of millions per year,
rising to billions

29. Governments
• Green new
Survival
deals
• China - US
leadership?
• Grey new
Status quo
deals
• The “return
to 2007”
syndrome

30. Business
• The cleantech
Survival
revolution
Status quo
FEBRUARY 2009

31. UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA

32. FT, 21st Oct 2006

33. Feed-in tariffs and jobs: the case of UK PV
Source: UK PV Manufacturers Association, May 2009

34. Business
• The cleantech
Survival
revolution
• Enlightened
leadership
Status quo

35. Business
• The cleantech
Survival
revolution
• Enlightened
leadership
• Big oil
Status quo
recarbonising

38. Business
Gulf of Mexico
• The cleantech
Survival
revolution
• Enlightened
leadership
• Big oil
Status quo
recarbonising
• No room for
serious
renewables

40. People
• No return to
2007
Survival
• Self-help
innovation
• Top Gear
etc
Status quo
• The rise of
the Far
Right
MARCH 2009

41. A battle for hearts and minds
Governments Business People
Survival • Green new • The cleantech • No return to
trajectory deals revolution 2007
• China - US • Enlightened • Self-help
leadership? leadership innovation
Status quo • Grey new • Big Oil • Top Gear
trajectory deals recarbonising etc
• The “return • No room for • The rise of
to 2007” serious the Far
syndrome renewables Right

43. Who to believe?
gas
gas
oil
oil

44. LCBP (Low Carbon Building Programme)

45. SEPTEMBER 2009

47. The “seeing is believing” effect
“Look at the world around you. It seems
like an immovable, implacable place. It
is not. With the slightest push – in just
the right place – it can be tipped.”
Malcolm Gladwell
Numbers
TIPPING POINT
The Power of Context
The Stickiness Factor
The Law of the Few
Time

48. Thank you
jeremy.leggett@solarcentury.com
www.solarcentury.com
www.solar-aid.org