Future Trends as a Strategic and Governance Risk•Climate change seen as major riskto future well-being in government, military, private and third sector.•Risk management is seen as a key lever to understand what future trends mean and to plan an organisational response. •Business as usual approachesdo not apply especially in terms of energy, water, food security, flood risk and population shifts.•Technological advances are notseen as providing the solution – major adaptation in inevitable, in the economy, environment and society.•Existing models of governanceneed to change to tackle futuretrends – are current approachesadequate?
Global Trends (1)Globalisation = vulnerable economies and heightened inequalities. (Oil, Water, Land and Food) increased demand for scarce resources, resource competition and conflict. Technology alters interaction of communities, networks, individuals and organisations and benefits health care for some Powerful role of the individual on public attitudes, values, expectations and behaviours enhanced by IT. Higher expectations for quality of life, goods and services in developed and developing world. Secularism, materialism, capitalism dominant Decline in civic valuesConsumerist relationship between individual and state
Global Trends (2)Ageing first world and youthful third world, a growing urban poor, increased cultural complexity. Generational conflict in the developed world, a rise in politicalextremism, and retrenchment. Migration caused by failing states, conflict, climate change, poverty and poor governance (MoD 2007 230 m people by 2050) Infectious disease limits growth in the developing world High global risks of an influenza pandemic.Obesity and diabetes time bomb in developed world. Global terrorism and rising sympathy with extremist sentimentsClimate change alters infrastructure, settlements, migration, Economic, social agriculture and health, economy, carbon economy. and environmental impacts on Wales?
Alternative ‘Adaptation’ Futuresknown adaptation required to 2040s unknown adaptation required after 2040sknown mitigation required to 2040s unknown mitigation required after 2040s
Peak Oil OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS 2004 Scenario 30 Supply and Business-As-Usual Demand Gap 25 20Billion Barrels a year (Gb/a) M.East 15 Other 10 5 Russia Europe US-48 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL Source: PostCarbon Institute (2008)
Carbon trajectories 200 s curve from 2012 180 160Carbon emissions (MtC) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year from: Tyndall Centre
Carbon trajectories 200 s curve from 2012 180 160Carbon emissions (MtC) 140 data from 2000 to 2006 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year from: Tyndall Centre
Carbon trajectories 200 s curve from 2012 180 160Carbon emissions (MtC) 140 … emissions are likely to rise 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year from: Tyndall Centre
Carbon trajectories 200 s curve from 2012 ….. requiring dramatic annual carbon 180 reductions between 2012-2032 160Carbon emissions (MtC) 140 .....if 2°C rise is to be avoided 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year from: Tyndall Centre
Carbon trajectories 200 s curve from 2012 180 160 ~ 9% p.a. reduction Carbon emissions (MtC) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 from: Tyndall Centre Year
Energy security and carbon reductionOil Demand and supply - demand for energy 53% higher in 2030 than in 2004 but Peak Oil analysts suggest a peak of production in 2010’s then a terminal declineEnergy vulnerability - 2020, 50% oil will produced by countries at risk of internal instability. By 2020, around 80% of UK fuels are likely to come from overseas.High and Volatile Energy Prices - international relations and negotiations and risk of disruption – marginalise peripheral and rural areasReliance on Nuclear and Renewables, including energy crops, microgeneration and gas/coal and carbon capture and storage.Transport remains highly oil dependent and traffic grows (road traffic is expected to increase by 31% between 2003 and 2025)Carbon Reduction requires large scale shifts in the economy and technology 3-9% annual carbon reduction targets to meet Government 60% by 2050? To avoid 2 degrees C rise.ENERGY DESCENT PLAN FOR EACH COMMUNITY IN WALES?
Adaptation Challenges for Local Government• economic impact – changing global and local markets• resource scarcity, localisation of supply chains?• increased flood risks to rivers and coasts• water resources – drought, supply and quality• drainage and sewerage capacity• land use, value and patterns of development• capturing carbon through land management• conservation designation and habitat connectivity• changing agricultural practices and food security• resilience of transport infrastructure - disruption• primary, secondary and tertiary health impacts• reliance on costly fossil fuels and peak oil• climate change induced migration WHAT ARE THE LOCAL IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION RESPONSES? GLOBAL IMPACTS ON OUR COMMUNITIES?
Food Security Chatham House Food Supply Scenarios (2008) Just a Blip? - strong supply response, weather favourable, oil price falls, overproduction Food Inflation? – high demand, high energy cost, high input costs, inflation, recession A New Era? – peak oil, climate change losses, restriction on inputs, supply constraints, eco-technical approach Food Crisis? – diseases, water shortages, geopolitical disruption, high energy price, extreme weather, exhausted stocks, and prices skyrocket. Governments control prices, civil disturbance. •resources are scarcer, demand is increasing, food prices soaring, • stocks are low, serious shortages •not just a blip – structural change occurring in food economy •‘business as usual’ models will fail, or poor preparation for future • long-term planning needs to start now“JUST IN TIME” v A FOOD RESILIENCE PLAN FOR WALES?
What’s it got to do with Local Government?an increasing emphasis on local arrangements to mitigate the effects ofthese trends in the interests of socio-economic stability, a heightenedpre-occupation with risk by governments and society, and a need tomanage these risks at all levels of government. (MoD 2007)•Local Government Act 2000 - Duty of well-being •Democratic mandate – moral obligation to lead and help manage issues•Community leadership role , partnerships and sectoral links•requires “bold local political ambition transcending short term pressures” LGA 2007•Proposed Assembly Local Government Measure “providing local wellbeing,sustainability and fairness are as valid as improving quantified service outputs orefficiency”