E marketer mobile_mexico-overcoming_obstacles_to_growth

December 2012

Mobile Mexico:
Overcoming Obstacles to Growth
Osbaldo Franco
ofranco@emarketer.com
Contributors
Tobi Elkin, Kris Oser

Executive Summary: Mobile phone adoption in Mexico has been slow, hobbled by general economic conditions
and by a lack of competition in the mobile space, which has kept prices high for advanced mobile devices and
for data plans. Compounding the situation, cultural preferences have helped hold back widespread adoption of
postpaid phone plans, which tends to be a bellwether for increased mobile use.
139359
And yet, there are clear signs of mobile growth on the horizon.
Mobile Connections in Mexico, 2010-2016
millions, % of population and % change The nation’s two largest mobile carriers, which provide service
106.0
to roughly 90% of Mexico’s mobile lines, have launched limited
102.0 104.0
98.0 100.0 4G-LTE services and are expected to continue expanding those
95.0
90.0 networks. They are also offering aggressive subsidies for advanced
86.0% 86.8% 87.6% 88.4%
83.5% 85.2%
80.0% mobile devices in order to lure prepaid plan holders into more
lucrative and longer-lasting postpaid data plans. These strategies
could mean lower price points for entry-level and lower-income
consumers interested in acquiring 3G devices, and further growth
among early 4G adopters with higher incomes.
When consumers do make the switch to faster and more
7.8% 5.6% advanced phones, advertisers will be ready to reach them.
3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9%
Mobile advertising is already taking a greater chunk of
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 digital budgets in Mexico than in more advanced digital
Mobile connections % of population % change advertising markets.
Note: data is for Dec of each year; includes the total number of mobile Growth can’t be taken for granted, though. Market watchers
connections, for mobile phones as well as for nonvoice devices, such as
internet access devices (e.g., wireless modem cards, netbooks and mobile note that Mexico’s prepaid market is still at 84% of all mobile
Wi-Fi hotspots), ereaders, tablets and telematics systems
Source: eMarketer, April 2012 users, internet use is mainly limited to high- and medium-income
139359 www.eMarketer.com households, device and plan prices are still an entry barrier, and
there is a lack of competition among carriers.
Those are major obstacles to overcome before a viable mobile
The State of Mobile in Mexico 2
market for advertisers and retailers becomes a reality.
Mobile Carriers and Mobile Transactions 5
Brands and Marketers Prepare for the
Mobile Revolution 5 Key Questions
Related eMarketer Reports 6 ■■ Why is Mexico’s mobile market lagging behind those of
eMarketer Interviews 6 similarly developed countries?
Related Links 7
■■ What is the profile of the typical mobile user in Mexico?
■■ When will Mexico’s smartphone user audience reach critical
mass for marketers?

Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved.

The State of Mobile in Mexico Mobile Phone Users in Mexico, 2010-2016
millions, % of population and % change
Mobile activity in Mexico is markedly low when 75.4
79.1
71.7
compared to other countries in a similar stage of 67.4
63.2
economic development. In Latin America in particular, 59.1
55.1
mobile penetration of the population is far greater in 63.5%
66.0%
61.0%
58.0%
Argentina, Brazil and Chile than in Mexico. 52.0%
55.0%
49.0%
Financial, cultural, and political forces have helped cap
Mexico’s adoption of mobile. But some of those forces are
easing. eMarketer expects solid if not spectacular growth
over the next three years in key mobile categories such as 10.1% 7.3% 6.9% 6.6% 6.3% 5.2% 5.0%
smartphone penetration and mobile internet use.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
While the new wave of growth will not bring Mexico to mobile Mobile phone users % of population % change
parity with more developed economies like the US or the UK—
Note: mobile phone users are individuals of any age who own at least one
or with even some of the large Latin American countries—it mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, April 2012
will take the market past some key tipping points of mobile 139314 www.eMarketer.com
usage, creating a true market for mobile advertising and for 139314

mobile commerce. eMarketer projects limited growth in mobile connections over
the foreseeable future, with the number of connections as a
Mobile Mexico: Mobile Connections percentage of the population only edging up to 88.4% by 2016.

The starting point for an understanding of mobile in Mexico is the eMarketer’s estimates are in line with other researchers’ data
country’s overall mobile penetration rate. eMarketer estimates for Mexico. Among five separate forecasts released in the last
the number of mobile connections in Mexico at 98 million for the year, the common prediction was that Mexico’s connections
year 2012, equal to 85.2% of the total population. will not exceed 100% of the country’s population before 2017.

By comparison, the number of mobile connections as a
Comparative Estimates: Mobile Connection
percentage of population in Brazil is 134%, according to Penetration in Mexico, 2010-2016
eMarketer’s estimates. In Argentina, the percentage is closer to % of population
140%. To put these figures in a global context, mobile connection 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
penetration of the population in the US, UK and mobile laggard BuddeComm, 81.0% 85.0% 89.0% - - - 98.0%
Aug 2012
Japan will reach 111%, 131% and 99%, respectively in 2012.
eMarketer*, 80.0% 83.5% 85.2% 86.0% 86.8% 87.6% 88.4%
In developing economies, mobile users often take multiple April 2012
GSM Association, - 87.0% - - - - -
prepaid plans and then mix and match them to maximize Feb 2012
use while minimizing costs. But the relatively low number of COFETEL, 81.3% 84.2% - - - - -
March 2012
mobile connections in Mexico suggests that even price-driven
ITU, July 2012 - 82.4% - - - - -
mix-and-match mobile usage is not that widespread.
Note: *data is for Dec of each year; includes the total number of mobile
connections, for mobile phones as well as for nonvoice devices, such as
Furthermore, the ratio of mobile phone users to mobile internet access devices (e.g., wireless modem cards, netbooks and mobile
connections in Mexico indicates that a central trend to Wi-Fi hotspots), ereaders, tablets and telematics systems
Source: eMarketer, April 2012; various, as noted, 2012
Brazil’s mobile expansion, the use of multiple SIM cards to 147663 www.eMarketer.com
avoid inter-carrier connection fees, may not support mobile 147663

usage growth in Mexico in the same way. eMarketer estimates
Mobile Mexico: Smartphone Usage
the number of mobile phone users in Mexico will reach
63 million this year, or 1.55 mobile connections per mobile Given Mexico’s trailing mobile connection rate, it should come as
phone user. Brazil, on the other hand, will boast 276 million no surprise that its smartphone penetration rate is also quite low.
mobile connections and 119 million mobile users in the same
eMarketer estimates that 24% of Mexico’s mobile users will
period, a 2.32 lines-per-mobile user ratio. In the US, the ratio
be smartphone users this year, which works out to just 13% of
will be 1.45 in 2012.
the total population.

Mobile Mexico: Overcoming Obstacles to Growth Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

The State of Mobile in Mexico

Smartphone Users and Penetration in Mexico, Mobile Mexico: Prepaid vs. Postpaid
2010-2016
Perhaps the most telling statistics about Mexico’s mobile
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
market have to do with its notably slow adoption of postpaid
Smartphone 3.3 8.9 15.2 22.2 28.7 36.2 43.5
users (millions) mobile plans.
—% change 120.2% 168.3% 71.1% 46.6% 28.8% 26.2% 20.3%
Postpaid plan adoption is a key driver of increased use of
—% of mobile 6.0% 15.0% 24.0% 33.0% 40.0% 48.0% 55.0%
phone users more advanced mobile platforms. The monthly payment
—% of population 2.9% 7.8% 13.2% 19.1% 24.4% 30.5% 36.3% commitment and the subsidies that are a part of postpaid
Note: smartphone users are individuals of any age who own at least one plans are major usage spurs.
smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month
139346 www.eMarketer.com
According to GSM Association and A.T. Kearney, 86% of
139346 Mexico’s mobile subscriptions last year were prepaid.
And those penetration levels, which are already low To put Mexico’s low postpaid plan adoption rate in
in comparison to similar markets, may make Mexico’s perspective, consider data from other countries. GSM
smartphone landscape seem more robust than it actually is, Association and A.T. Kearney reported in November 2011 that
because a large portion of the smartphones in circulation are 20% of mobile plans in Brazil were postpaid, while the figure
relatively old, second-hand devices, and nearly half of them was 49% in the UK and fully 99% in Japan.
do not have a data plan. To access the web, owners of these
devices rely on a network of Wi-Fi hotspots deployed across Without a sharp increase in postpaid plan uptake, it’s hard to
the nation by fixed internet providers. So, even as smartphone imagine widespread smartphone adoption. CIU estimates that
ownership has shot up in the last 12 months and is expected less than 9% of prepaid plan holders owned a smartphone in
to continue to grow rapidly, data plan adoption remains weak. Q2 2012, while 84% of postpaid plan customers did so in the
same period.
Mexico’s rate of smartphone penetration is sharply lower
than those of more developed economies in Europe and To date, the transition to postpaid plan predominance by
North America, and tends to trail even those countries whose Mexico’s mobile industry has been slow. According to
economies are in a similar stage of development. While Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones (COFETEL) data, the
smartphone penetration will grow rapidly in the coming share of postpaid subscriptions in the country increased by
years, the gains won’t be enough to completely close the gap only 3.3 percentage points in the last four years.
with Argentina, Brazil, or a number of other key developing
economies around the world. Prepaid vs. Postpaid Mobile Subscriptions in Mexico,
Q2 2009-Q2 2012
eMarketer’s estimates for smartphone uptake are in line with % of total
other firms. According to a Google study conducted by Ipsos Q2 2009
MediaCT and TNS Infratest earlier this year, about 20% of 88.1% 11.9%
Mexico’s online population owned a smartphone. The results Q2 2010
of this Q1 2012 study were similar to eMarketer’s estimate of 86.8% 13.2%

22% penetration as of the end of 2011. Q2 2011
86.0% 14.0%
The Competitive Intelligence Unit (CIU), a telecommunications
Q2 2012
consultancy based in Mexico City, estimated that smartphone
84.8% 15.2%
penetration among mobile phone users in Mexico was 20.1%
in Q2 2012, while eMarketer puts the measure at 24.1% for the Prepaid Postpaid

full year of 2012. Source: Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones (COFETEL), Oct 25, 2012
Taken together, the estimates are uniform in showing a still-small 146949

percentage of people in Mexico using smartphones. Mexico’s largest mobile carrier, América Móvil’s Telcel, announced
Not surprisingly, smartphone ownership is mainly clustered early this year that it would work to increase its base of postpaid
among Mexico’s middle class. The CIU estimates that individuals plan customers. It is too early to tell what the effect of those
in the various “C” socioeconomic levels (SEL) made up 79% of efforts will be, but given América Móvil’s dominance (it controls
smartphone ownership in Mexico in September 2012. The C SELs two-thirds of the market), the change could be significant.
are viewed as Mexico’s middle and upper middle classes and Early indications do suggest that America Movil’s efforts are
are generally associated with annual household incomes ranging making a difference. The company said it had a net gain of
from $15,000 to $45,000 for the middle class and $45,000 to 1.2 million mobile lines in Q3 2012 compared with a year
$100,000 for the upper middle class. earlier. The gain came solely from postpaid plans, which


The State of Mobile in Mexico

expanded by 17.3% year over year. Meanwhile, prepaid lines was the top operating system in Mexico. The survey found that
receded a marginal 0.1% in the same period. 25% of smartphones in Mexico used the BlackBerry OS, while
24% were Android devices. BlackBerry was the top choice
Mobile Mexico: The Mobile Web among females (26%), while Android had an edge among
males (26%). Apple’s iOS was third overall at 13%, followed by
eMarketer predicts there will be 17.1 million mobile internet
Symbian, the discontinued Nokia mobile OS, at 10%.
users in Mexico this year.

Smartphone Ownership in Mexico, by OS and Gender,
Mobile Internet Users and Penetration in Mexico, March 2012
2010-2016 % of respondents in each group
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Android BlackBerry iOS Microsoft Symbian Other
Mobile internet 5.0 11.2 17.1 23.6 30.1 37.7 45.1 Male 26% 24% 14% 7% 12% 3%
users (millions)
Female 22% 26% 11% 9% 6% 4%
—% change 65.2% 126.5% 52.0% 38.2% 27.6% 25.2% 19.7%
Total 24% 25% 13% 8% 10% 3%
—% of mobile 9.0% 19.0% 27.0% 35.0% 42.0% 50.0% 57.0%
phone users Source: Google, "Our Mobile Planet" conducted by Ipsos MediaCT and TNS
Infratest, May 15, 2012
—% of population 4.4% 9.9% 14.9% 20.3% 25.6% 31.8% 37.6%
Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a 147371
mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month;
excludes SMS, MMS and IM Kantar Worldpanel data cited by Latin Link in November 2012
showed Android as the new leading OS in the country, with a
139330 37% share of the market, and RIM in second place at 29.7%.
According to an October 2012 Accenture report, 78% of male Symbian, however, had a stronger presence in the market,
and 70% of female internet users in Mexico said they had according to the Kantar estimate, than in Google’s study, with
accessed the web via mobile devices at least once in the 12 a 20.2% market share.
months prior to taking the survey. Though it is foreseeable that Symbian will gradually lose ground
According to Google, nearly nine in 10 smartphone owners as more Android, BlackBerry and Windows Phone devices make
in Mexico used their phones to go online from home and their debut in Mexico, its continued relevance points up an
three-quarters did so from work locations. Only 64% of important cultural trait. Mexicans do not toss things out. Instead,
smartphone owners said they went online on their phones they re-use them, hand them down or otherwise max out the life
while “on the go.” span of material possessions. Three-quarters of respondents to
a September 2012 CIU survey said they keep, sell or hand down
Only 45% of internet users polled by the Interactive Advertising
their older devices when they buy a new one.
Bureau México (IAB México) and Millward Brown said they
went online on their mobile phone—either feature phones or This behavior has allowed older operating systems to continue
smartphones. But a majority of respondents (91%) said they to hold a meaningful share of Mexico’s mobile market. It has
used basic functions like voice calling and the alarm clock on also affected mobile data plan adoption trends. Second-hand
their device. Entertainment activities such as listening to MP3 devices often end up with mobile users who can’t afford or are
files and over-the-air radio, taking photos or playing games on not interested in committing to relatively expensive postpaid
phones were performed by 70% of respondents. Only a third data plans. Instead, these users opt for prepaid voice plans while
of those polled said they did online tasks such as emailing, taking advantage of Mexico’s Wi-Fi hotspot network.
social networking or web searching through their phones. Slashing spending as much as possible comes naturally to
many people in a country where nearly half of all households
A Three-Way OS Race (45%) have annual incomes below $12,000.
In Latin America, Research In Motion (RIM) has found a safe haven
amid the losses it has experienced in most markets around the
globe. RIM is holding its ground in the region and had kept the top
spot in smartphone sales for eight consecutive quarters until early
2012, according to a statement by Rick Constanzo, RIM’s then CEO
for Latin America and now its executive vice president of global
sales, during the Be First conference in Cartagena, Colombia, in
May 2012, as reported by CNNExpansión.
According to the May 2012 Google survey “Our Mobile Planet,”
conducted by Ipsos MediaCT and TNS Infratest, BlackBerry


Mobile Carriers and Mobile Brands and Marketers Prepare for
Transactions the Mobile Revolution
Limited competition among mobile carriers is Experimenting with digital advertising has been
arguably the biggest obstacle to growth for the a gradual process for marketers in Mexico. Many
mobile market in Mexico. larger advertisers only joined the fray in 2011. Mobile,
Despite a flurry of new regulatory measures aimed at breaking however, appears to be gaining popularity much
América Móvil’s lock on Mexico’s telecommunications market, faster among brands and marketers.
the incumbent mobile and landline telephone provider—
This year, IAB México and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
through subsidiaries Telcel and Telmex—still holds nearly 70%
released the first mobile ad spending report ever assembled
and 80% of those markets, respectively.
in Mexico. The report showcased 2011 mobile ad spending
Competitors like Movistar, a subsidiary of Spain’s Telefónica, and data and estimated that mobile advertising represented
Iusacell point fingers at América Móvil, accusing the telecom about 7% of digital ad spending that year. By comparison, the
giant of anti-competitive practices. Meanwhile, América Móvil local branches of the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and
demands that its competitors invest in their own infrastructure. PwC in Spain, the UK and the US estimated that mobile ad
Until 2011, Telcel charged MXN0.95 ($0.08) per minute to other spending in those countries represented only 2%, 4% and 5%,
carriers for calls ending in its network. Meanwhile, it offered similar respectively, of digital ad spending in 2011.
or lower prices to its own users, depending of the plan they While it is worth noting that overall digital ad spending in
were in. Mexican antitrust regulators imposed a MXN12 billion Mexico is just a fraction of that of the more developed
(roughly $1 billion) penalty on América Móvil, finding that it had markets in Spain, the UK and the US, the findings in the IAB
taken advantage of its market power. To avoid paying the hefty México study hint at a quick adoption of mobile advertising
penalty, América Móvil agreed in May of this year to lower the
by those marketers in Mexico who were more likely to
interconnection fee to MXN0.36 ($0.03) immediately, and to further
have started working in both online and mobile platforms
reduce it until it reaches MXN0.31 ($0.02) per minute in 2014.
simultaneously from the get-go.
Beside regulation and competitive issues, the price barrier may
Perhaps due to their experience with online platforms, some
be the most important challenge that carriers and manufacturers
brands are already expanding their advertising and marketing
must overcome in Mexico. As José María Fregoso, RIM’s managing
efforts to mobile devices at a time when the mobile market
director for Mexico and Central America, put it, “The main
in Mexico remains underdeveloped at large. As Mayra
challenge is to be able to lower the [price] barrier and have an
Hara, interactive marketing manager at Coca-Cola México,
entry-level offer that is significant and that is available to everyone.”
put it, “We have to invest now, even though [the mobile
Aside from price issues, postpaid plan uptake is stymied market] is not that massive. We have to learn how to get to
by the limited use of credit cards in Mexico. In a country of the consumer [as well as] the processes that we have to
roughly 115 million people, there are only 25 million credit implement for all these mobile initiatives.”
cards in circulation, according to Banco de México.
Coca-Cola México is no newcomer to mobile. After
Consumers’ tendency to use cash rather than credit not streamlining its online strategy, the beverage giant has
only challenges the ability of mobile carriers to expand their successfully deployed online initiatives such as Coke TV and
user base, it also holds back ecommerce. To promote mobile Coke FM on all mobile platforms in the last two years and
commerce, Telcel and Movistar have formed alliances with devoted 10% of its digital budget to mobile initiatives this year.
device manufacturers, banks, credit card companies and
retailers to allow mobile payments and money transfers Even though only one of every four mobile phones in Mexico
among mobile phones or to bank accounts via SMS interfaces. is a smartphone, marketers are investing a great deal of their
mobile budgets in display ads and branded apps. According to
In the last 18 months, Banco Mercantil del Norte (aka Banorte),
IAB México and PwC, 83% of mobile budgets go to actual ads
Inbursa and Banamex, the Mexican subsidiary of Citigroup, have
and three quarters of that portion goes to display ads in mobile
launched mobile banking initiatives that allow users to open and
portals. The remaining 17% is invested in development, with half
manage banking accounts as well as to make payments via SMS, all
of those development programs devoted to mobile apps.
via a feature phone and without ever having to go to a bank branch.
But SMS marketing and advertising are still popular, as well.
Banamex is also developing a mobile wallet for smartphones
According to March 2012 data from IAB México and Millward
that will likely be integrated with the near field communication
Brown, SMS ads were the type of mobile ads most commonly
(NFC) technology rollout started by the bank this year.
recalled by Mexico’s mobile device owners.


Brands and Marketers Prepare for the Mobile Revolution

Types of Mobile Ads Recalled by Mobile Device Related eMarketer Reports
Owners in Mexico, March 2012
% of respondents Mexico Online: Usage Grows as Access Obstacles
Give Way
SMS
73%
Global Media Intelligence Report: Latin America
Email Brazil Online: An Increasingly Mobile Market
16%
Social networks eMarketer Interviews
13%
Mobile portals Marketing in Mexico: For Market Leader RIM, Biggest
12% Challenge Is the Upgrade
Apps/games
7% José María Fregoso
Multimedia message Managing Director for Mexico and Central America
6%
Research In Motion
Bluetooth Interview conducted on October 30, 2012
2%
B2B Perspectives: Mobile Is Key Says Xerox Mexicana
Note: n=996 ages 13+ who recalled receiving mobile ads
Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau México (IAB México) and Millward
Brown, "Estudio de usos y hábitos de dispositivos móviles" sponsored by
Mobext and Terra, Sep 26, 2012 Luis Heredia
146564 www.eMarketer.com Marketing Manager
146564
Xerox Mexicana
Given the overwhelmingly large percentage of feature phones Interview conducted on October 26, 2012
in Mexico’s mobile market, it makes sense to use SMS and
other technologically simpler measures to reach consumers. As Marketing in Mexico: Cinepolis Embraces Mobile
Gerardo Fernández Velarde, head of marketing and operations at
C-MOVIL, the mobile subsidiary of Corporación Interamericana Miguel Mier
de Entretenimiento (CIE), explained: “Many marketers think they Global Chief Operating Officer
need to build an app or something similar for smartphones, Cinépolis
but that is not actually true. In Mexico, 80% to 85% of [mobile] Interview conducted on October 29, 2012

users have feature phones, and the marketers can begin by
Marketing in Mexico: Coca-Cola Mobile Presents
campaigning with SMS, mobile sites, etc.” Sports and Music Video
Many marketers in Mexico are holding back because they do Mayra Hara
not yet feel comfortable with mobile media. In the opinion Interactive Marketing Manager
of Gastón Bercún, founder and CEO of HUNT Mobile Ads, Coca-Cola México
a mobile advertising network based in Argentina but with Interview conducted on October 24, 2012

continental outreach, “uncertainty, more than obstacles” is
what makes marketers hesitate on mobile. “What they are not
Gastón Bercún
sure about yet is how their brands should deploy their first
Founder and CEO
experience in the mobile environment,” he said.
HUNT Mobile Ads
Interview conducted on October 17, 2012

Arturo Caro
Senior Vice President Digital
Edelman México

Mariana Villarreal
Managing Director
JeffreyGroup, Mexico City


eMarketer Interviews

Gerardo Fernandez Garcia Velarde Editorial and
Head of Marketing and Operations
Production Contributors
C-Movil
Interview conducted on October 22, 2012 Nicole Perrin Associate Editorial Director
Cliff Annicelli Senior Copy Editor
Emily Adler Copy Editor
Erasmo Rojas Dana Hill Director of Production
Director of Latin America and the Caribbean Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist
4G Americas Stephanie Gehrsitz Production Artist
Allie Smith Director of Charts

Related Links
4G Americas
A. T. Kearney
América Móvil
Asociación Mexicana de Agencias de Investigación de
Mercado y Opinión Pública
Banamex
Banco Mercantil del Norte
C-MOVIL
Cinépolis
Coca-Cola México
The Competitive Intelligence Unit
Corporación Interamericana de Entretenimiento
Edelman México
Google
GSM Association
HUNT Mobile Ads
Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales
Interactive Advertising Bureau México
Interactive Advertising Bureau Spain
Interactive Advertising Bureau UK
Ipsos MediaCT
JeffreyGroup Mexico City
Millward Brown
Movistar México
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Pyramid Research
Research in Motion
Telcel
Telefónica México
Telmex
TNS Infratest
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Xerox Mexicana


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