Slideshow for impeachment explainer talk at Manny's, Oct. 29, 2019

1. IMPEACHMENT update
October 29, 2019
Hadar Aviram
Law Professor, UC Hastings College of the Law
Visiting Fellow, Harvard Law School

2. What Is Impeachment?
The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment (Article I,
Section 2, Clause 5).
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that
Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is
tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the
Concurrence of two-thirds of the Members present.
Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office,
and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United
States; but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial,
Judgment and Punishment, according to Law (Article I, Section 3, Clauses 6 and 7).
The President, Vice President and all civil officers of the United States, shall be removed
from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes
and misdemeanors (Article II, Section 4).

3. The Process, Part I: Impeachment
6 House
committees
investigate
Findings
deemed
sufficient
Findings
deemed
insufficient
House holds
a floor vote
Simple majority
votes to
impeach
Less than a
majority votes to
impeach
TRUMP IMPEACHED
AND ONWARD TO
PART II
TRUMP REMAINS IN
OFFICE

4. The Process, Part I: Impeachment
6 House
committees
investigate
Findings
deemed
sufficient
Findings
deemed
insufficient
House holds
a floor vote
Simple majority
votes to
impeach
Less than a
majority votes to
impeach
TRUMP IMPEACHED
AND ONWARD TO
PART II
TRUMP REMAINS IN
OFFICE
Likely outcome

5. The Process, Part II: Removal from Office
Articles of
impeachment move
to Senate, which
then holds a trial
After the trial,
Senate holds a floor
vote to remove the
President
Two thirds of
Senate or more
vote to convict
Less than two
thirds vote to
convict
TRUMP REMOVED
FROM OFFICE
TRUMP REMAINS IN
OFFICE

6. The Process, Part II: Removal from Office
Articles of
impeachment move
to Senate, which
then holds a trial
After the trial,
Senate holds a floor
vote to remove the
President
Two thirds of
Senate or more
vote to convict
Less than two
thirds vote to
convict
TRUMP REMOVED
FROM OFFICE
TRUMP REMAINS IN
OFFICE
Likely outcome

7. Dramatis Personae:
The White House
• Donald Trump (President)
• Mike Pence (Vice President)
• William Barr (Attorney General)
• John Bolton (former National
Security Adviser)
• Fiona Hill (former Russia Adviser)
• Rick Perry (Energy Secretary)
• Joseph Maguire (Acting Director of
National Intelligence)

8. Dramatis Personae:
Department of State
• Mike Pompeo (Secretary of State)
• Kurt Volker (until recently, Special Envoy to
Ukraine)
• Marie Yovanovitch (until recently, U.S.
Ambassador to Ukraine)
• Bill Taylor (Acting Ambassador to Ukraine)
• Gordon Sondland (U.S. Ambassador to the
European Union)
• Michael McKinley (until recently, Senior
Advisor to the Secretary of State)
• George Kent (Deputy Assistant Secretary in
the European and Eurasian Bureau)

9. Dramatis Personae:
Ukraine
• Volodymyr Zelensky (newly
elected President of Ukraine)
• Andriy Yermak (Zelensky aide)
• Yuriy Lutsenko (former
Prosecutor General of Ukraine,
quit 2019)
• Viktor Shokin (former
Prosecutor General of Ukraine
before Lutsenko, quit 2016)

10. Dramatis Personae: Others
• Joe Biden (former U.S. Vice President,
Presidential hopeful for 2020)
• Hunter Biden (Joe Biden’s son)
• Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor of NYC,
Trump’s personal lawyer)
• Lev Parnas, Igor Fruman (Giuliani business
associates, now charged with campaign
finance violations)

11. Background
• The enmity between Russia and Ukraine has long historical roots. In 1654, Cossacks of Ukraine
struck an agreement with Russia and became Russian vassals.
• Russians held the treaty in such high regard that in Soviet times, in 1954, as a gift to celebrate the
anniversary of its signing, they transferred Crimea to Soviet Ukraine
• Ukrainian historians, in contrast, see the treaty as the beginning of Russia’s domination of Ukraine,
which later turned Ukraine essentially into a Russian colony.

12. Soviet Period • Crimea, with a 44% Russian-speaking population, is gifted to Ukraine by
Soviet Russia

13. Ukrainian
Independence
• Ukraine gains its independence from the
Soviet Union in 1991
• Crimea holds two referenda: 1991:
independence from the Soviet Union, and
1992: independence from Ukraine
• Ukraine offers Crimea larger autonomy
• 1994: Most Crimeans want to be
autonomous within Ukraine

14. 2014: Pro-
Russian
Unrest in
Ukraine

15. • Primary onshore oil and gas productive
regions: the Dneiper-Donetsk and Pre-
Carpathian Basins
• Primary offshore area (most prospective for
new, large conventional oil and gas
reserves): the Black Sea-Crimea Basin
• The Ukraine is a net importer of both oil and
gas, mostly from Russia
• The importance of the gas volumes for both
residential and industrial use is the primary
reason the Ukrainian government
aggressively sought to expand domestic
production through deepwater exploration
and shale gas development
Majority-Russian-speaking
territory + underutilized
natural oil and gas

16. • Ukraine has promise as a source of
wind energy
• highest-promise areas: Crimea and
Eastern Ukraine
• This maters because, in the US, wind
and solar are now more cost-effective
in many places than new natural gas
power plants (and much more cost-
effective than new coal plants)
• That’s appealing b/c:
• greenhouse gas reduction (ostensibly
popular in many of the European markets
now served by Russian natural gas)
• Northern Europe is cloudy and pretty far
north => , low solar resource
• No great potential in most of Europe for
on-land wind energy generation (the
North Sea is promising, but putting
turbines up in the ocean is still more
expensive than putting them up in a
windy terrestrial place like Wyoming or
Texas).
• Ukraine could be a potentially major
exporter of wind energy, which would
compete with Russian gas

17. Relevant
Mueller Report
Findings
Aggressive Russian interference in the 2016
U.S. election
Trump campaign: enthusiastic recipients of
”dirt” from Russia (Mueller does not
prosecute for conspiracy)
Trump campaign efforts to cover up
cooperation with Russia, rises to obstruction
of justice in at least 5 documented instances
(Mueller does not prosecute largely b/c of
DOJ policy not to indict acting president,
strongly signals to Congress to impeach)
Following election, frenetic Russian activity
to get Trump to approve Russia-Ukraine
peace agreement favorable to Russia

18. The Basic Accusation
May-August 2019: Trump + Giuliani
repeatedly pressed the Ukrainian
government to investigate Hunter
Biden and his business dealings
with Burisma, a Ukrainian company,
by withholding military aid and
dangling the promise of a White
House visit

19. • May 14: Trump instructs Pence to cancel his trip to Ukraine for Zelensky’s
inauguration
• Mid-May: Rick Perry leads delegation instead, clarifies to Ukraine that
Trump will not meet Zelensky until he sees how Zelensky “choose[s] to act”
in office.
• May: Following smear campaign by Giuliani, Ambassador Yovanovitch
ousted (“you no longer have the President’s trust”) to the great shock of
Department of State and diplomatic corps
• July 18: Aid to Ukraine frozen by Trump’s order; freeze known to Ukrainians
• July 19: Volker has breakfast with Giuliani, updates Sondland via text:
“Most impt is for Zelensky to say that he will help investigation.”
• July 21: Taylor expresses concern about the call via text, Sondland pooh-
poohs him
• July 22: Volker texts : ““Rudy and Yermak … are going to get together when
Rudy goes to Madrid in a couple of weeks.”

20. July 25: Phone call btwn Trump and
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
• Pompeo and many others listened
in on the call
• White house staff expressed
concern about the content of the
calls
• Officials (Volker, Pence) were
briefed about the call
• In same call, Trump promises to
punish U.S. Ambassador Marie
Yovanovitch
• Under pressure from WH lawyers,
officials “locked down” into a
system normally reserved for highly
sensitive material
• Later, NYT reveals that calls
with Putin, Saudi crown prince
also on same system

21. • July 25: Volker texts Zelensky’s aide Andriy Yermak, conditions WH
visit upon investigation of “what happened” in 2016
• July 26: Volker, Sondland meet in Kyiv with Zelensky for “direct follow
up” about the “cases”
• August 9: Volker, Sondland text to set date for Zelensky WH visit:
Sondland: Trump wants the “deliverable”.
• August 9: Volker seeks Giuliani’s advice on what Zelensky’s statement
should look like
• August 10: Ukrainians want WH date before ”delivering”
• August 13, August 16: Volker, Sondland discuss that Ukrainian
statement must explicitly reference Burisma, 2016 elections

22. • August 28: Yermak texts Volker news release ("Trump Holds Up Ukraine
Military Aid Meant to Confront Russia”), demands conversation
• August 30: Trump cancels trip to meet Zelensky
• September 1: Taylor asks: “Are we now saying that security assistance and
WH meeting are conditioned on investigations?” Sondland replies: “Call
me.”
• September 8: Taylor worries: “The nightmare is they give the interview and
don’t get the security assistance. The Russians love it. (And I quit.)”
• September 9: Taylor: “As I said on the phone, I think it’s crazy to withhold
security assistance for help with a political campaign.” Sondland replies: “I
believe you are incorrect about President Trump’s intentions. The President
has been crystal clear no quid pro quo’s of any kind. The President is trying
to evaluate whether Ukraine is truly going to adopt the transparency and
reforms that President Zelensky promised during his campaign I suggest we
stop the back and forth by text If you still have concerns I recommend you
give Lisa Kenna or S a call to discuss them directly. Thanks.”

23. • Mid-August: Per Taylor’s testimony, Yermak and another Ukrainian
official met at WH with Bolton and others. At the meeting
“Ambassador Sondland had connected ‘investigations’ with an Oval
Office meeting for President Zelenskyy, which so irritated Ambassador
Bolton that he abruptly ended the meeting.”
• Mid-August: U.S. policy toward Ukraine cools: Taylor asked Morrison
“if there had been a change in policy of strong support for Ukraine”
and Morrison responded “it remains to be seen. . . President doesn’t
want to provide any assistance at all.”

24. • Aug. 12: Whistleblower complaint filed with intelligence community’s
inspector general, Michael Atkinson
• Sept. 9: House Intelligence Committee notified of complaint,
characterized by Atkinson as “urgent” and “credible.”
• Sept. 13: Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff issues
subpoena for complaint
• Sept. 18: WaPo reports that Trump made a ‘promise’ to a foreign
leader
• Sept. 19: Intelligence inspector general refuses to tell Congress about
whistleblower’s complaint; Trump claims “fake news” and
“presidential harassment.”
• Sept. 20: Ukraine scandal emerges; House Democrats demand the
release of the whistleblower complaint

25. September 24: Speaker Pelosi announces impeachment investigation:
“No one is above the law.”

26. September 25: Whistleblower Complaint Released to Congress

27. • Sep. 26: Complaint released, Maguire Testifies
• Sep. 27: Trump demands Schiff’s resignation; Volker resigns
• Sep. 29: Lutsenko reports he saw no wrongdoing by Biden
• Sep. 20: House Democrats subpoena Giuliani
• Oct. 1: Pompeo denounces investigation, says officials will not provide
depositions
• Oct. 2: House Democrats threaten to subpoena White House
• Oct. 3: Trump calls on China to investigate Bidens’ business dealings
• Oct. 6: Second whistleblower with first-hand knowledge of U.S.-Ukraine dealings
comes forth, also represented by Mark Zaid
• Oct. 7: House Democrats subpoena Defense Secretary Mark Esper, acting WH
Budget Director Russell Vought
• Oct. 8: Sondland blocked from giving a voluntary deposition; WH refuses to
participate in inquiry
• Oct. 9: Biden calls for Trump’s impeachment
• Oct. 10: Giuliani associates Parnas and Fruman arrested, hit with federal
campaign finance charges

28. • Oct. 11: Former Ukraine Ambassador Yovanovich testifies about her abrupt
ouster
• Oct.14: Fiona hill testifies about Bolton being unnerved by Giuliani’s
involvement in Ukraine
• Oct. 15: Hunter Biden denies accusations of wrongdoing in Ukraine and
China
• Oct. 16: Trump attacks Pelosi at in-person meeting; Democrats storm out
• Oct. 17: Mulvaney confirms Trump withheld aid to pressure Ukraine;
Sondland says he disagreed with decision to delegate Ukraine matter to
Giuliani; Perry announces resignation
• Oct. 22: Bill Taylor testifies, debunks claim of quid pro quo
• Oct. 23: Republicans interrupt closed-door deposition
• Oct. 28: Pelosi announces a vote, to occur this Thursday, to formalize the
inquiry and to lay out steps for making hearings public

29. History of
Impeachment

30. “High Crimes and
Misdemeanors”
the power of impeachment and removal is
necessary for those times when the
Executive "rendered himself obnoxious,"
and the Constitution should provide for the
"regular punishment of the Executive when
his conduct should deserve it, and for his
honorable acquittal when he should be
unjustly accused."
"...impeachment... [is] indispensable" to
defend the community against "the
incapacity, negligence or perfidy of the
chief Magistrate." With a single executive,
unlike a legislature whose collective nature
provided security, "loss of capacity or
corruption [is] more within the compass of
probable events, and either of them might
be fatal to the Republic."[6]
Benjamin
Franklin
James Madison

31. “those offenses which proceed
from the misconduct of public
men, or, in other words, from the
abuse or violation of some public
trust. They are of a nature which
may with peculiar propriety be
denominated POLITICAL, as they
relate chiefly to injuries done
immediately to the society itself.”