An improved economy and lower fuel prices will likely increase demand for gasoline in 2015, boosting Sunoco LP's revenues. Expansion through acquisitions from its parent company, Energy Transfer Partners, will also continue to increase revenues. Acquisitions in 2014 substantially grew Sunoco's sales and margins. Maintaining long-term contracts with affiliates like Susser Holdings provides guaranteed growth as they open new stores.
1. March 17, 2015
SUNOCO LP
SUN/NYSE
Initiating Coverage: Here Comes the SUN
Investment Rating: Market Outperform
PRICE: $ 50.89 S&P 500: 2,074.28 DJIA: 17,849.08 RUSSELL 2000: 1,242.23
An improved economy and lower fuel prices will increase the demand
for consumer motor fuel in 2015.
Expansion through acquisitions will continue to boost revenue to new
highs.
Maintaining long‐term fixed margin contracts with Susser Holdings
and third‐party customers will carry future growth.
Accelerating distribution growth should draw investors’ attention.
Our 12‐month target price is $59.00.
Valuation 2014 A 2015 E 2016 E
EPS $ 1.74 $ 2.60 $ 3.84
P/E 29.2x 19.6x 13.3x
CFPS $ 4.08 $ 7.45 $ 9.54
P/CFPS 12.5x 6.8x 5.3x
Market Capitalization Stock Data
Equity Market Cap (MM): $ 1,046.93 52‐Week Range: $32.61 ‐ $59.99
Enterprise Value (MM): $ 1,850.30 12‐Month Stock Performance: 51.41%
Shares Outstanding (MM): 20.57 Dividend Yield: 4.36%
Estimated Float (MM): 19.34 Book Value Per Share: $ 55.53
6‐Mo. Avg. Daily Volume: 160,000 Beta: 0.61
Company Quick View:
Sunoco LP is a Houston, Texas based wholesale and retail distributor of motor fuel and
generates the majority of its profit selling gasoline and petroleum products to its
network of affiliated convenience stores, third party retailers and commercial
customers, as well as more than 150 company operated retail sites. The Company also
leases real estate to affiliate and third party gasoline dealers.
Web Site: http://www.sunocolp.com
Analysts: Investment Research Manager:
Clark Lemons Nikunj Bajaj
Max Molinsky
Jacob Pritikin
Gregory Tluscik
James Villard
The BURKENROAD REPORTS are produced solely as a part of an educational program of Tulane University's
Freeman School of Business. The reports are not investment advice and you should not and may not rely on
them in making any investment decision. You should consult an investment professional and/or conduct your
own primary research regarding any potential investment.
Wall Street's Farm Team
BURKENROADREPORTS
17. SUNOCO LP (SUN) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) March 17, 2015
17
MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE AND BACKGROUND
Sunoco LP’s management consists of executives with over 80 years of combined experience
in the motor fuel industry. Each executive also has experience working for Susser Holdings,
Susser Petroleum Partners LP, or Sunoco, Inc., all of which are owned by Sunoco LP’s parent
corporation Energy Transfer Partners (ETP).
Table 2: Return on Invested Capital of Peers
Sunoco
LP
Delek US
Holdings, Inc.
Alon USA
Partners LP
Global
Partners LP
CrossAmerica
Partners LP
Average
ROIC 5.8% 13.5% 50.4% 10.9% 1.1% 16.3%
Source: Thomson One March 12, 2015
As Table 2 displays, Sunoco LP’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is lower than most of its
competitors at 5.8%. The Company’s current growth strategy is to acquire retail and
wholesale businesses as well as assets from its parent company ETP. The Company also
recently purchased Aloha Petroleum Ltd. and MACS for $240 million and $768 million
respectively. Sunoco LP’s growth strategy is likely lowering its ROIC and, therefore, investors
should not be dissuaded by its position next to its peers.
Robert W. Owens
President and Chief Executive Officer
Robert Owens is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Sunoco LP and its affiliate
Sunoco Inc. Previously he was Senior Vice President of Marketing of Sunoco, Inc., where he
was responsible for all commercial supply and trading activities involving crude oil, refined
products, and petrochemicals, as well as wholesale marketing and transportation operations.
Mr. Owens holds a B.S. in Business Administration and Marketing from California Polytechnic
State University and a M.B.A. from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at
Northwestern University.
Cynthia A. Archer
Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
Cynthia Archer is the Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of Sunoco LP. She
is responsible for marketing, merchandising, store design, product and environmental
integrity, and engineering, design and construction across the network. She previously served
as Vice President of Marketing and Development of Sunoco, Inc. She is also a Vice Chair of
the Board of Trustees of Bryn Mawr College. Ms. Archer holds a B.A. degree in English
literature from Bryn Mawr College and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.
20. SUNOCO LP (SUN) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) March 17, 2015
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Table 4: Sunoco LP’s Top Investors
Investor Name % O/S Pos
ETP and Subsidiaries 16.76 4,062,848
OFI SteelPath, Inc. 8.79 2,129,803
ClearBridge Investments, LLC 3.89 941,896
Geneva Advisors, LLC 3.01 729,559
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (US) 2.73 661,750
Advisory Research, Inc. 2.40 581,021
Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. (US) 2.20 533,736
Davenport Asset Management 2.11 510,585
Kornitzer Capital Management Inc. 1.43 345,500
Susser (Samuel L) 1.11 269,715
Source: Thomson One February 11, 2015
While large institutional investors can typically influence the management of a corporation,
Sunoco LP’s structure as an MLP shields the Company from such influence. ETP owns the
general partner of the Company, which is responsible for the management of the MLP. ETP is
also a majority limited partner unitholder, though limited partners have no claim to the
management of an MLP.
Insider Unitholders
Insiders own 2.4% of Sunoco LP’s total limited partner units. The largest individual investor is
Sam L. Susser, who is the active Chairman of the Board. Mr. Susser became Chief Executive
Officer of Susser Holding Company in 1992 and held the position until the Company merged
with ETP in 2014. Mr. Susser graduated from the University of Texas with a BBA in finance. In
addition to Sunoco LP, Mr. Susser sits on various boards and committees of Texas schools,
hospitals, and foundations, and has won numerous awards for his impact on Texas
businesses.
RISK ANALYSIS AND INVESTMENT CAVEATS
Sunoco LP faces many operational and regulatory risks due to the volatility of oil prices and
demand, and the heavy governmental regulation of the gasoline and petroleum industry. The
Company also faces financial risks associated with its quarterly distributions to unitholders,
required by all master limited partnership (MLP). These risks affect Sunoco LP’s revenue and
income, ultimately affecting the Company’s ability to pay quarterly cash distributions to its
unitholders.
27. SUNOCO LP (SUN) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) March 17, 2015
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ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT IT
ALTMAN Z‐SCORE
Edward Altman created the Altman Z‐Score analysis in 1968 while teaching at New York
University as a means of predicting a company’s risk of bankruptcy. The Z‐Score, which
lenders use to judge a company’s financial security, is calculated using the financial ratios
seen in Table 5. These ratios are then multiplied by a corresponding coefficient and then
summed. The result of these calculations is the company’s Z‐Score. This model is believed to
be roughly 72% accurate in predicting a company’s bankruptcy two years prior to the event.
Altman Z‐scores fall in one of three ranges. A score above 3.0 means the company is
generally safe from bankruptcy. A score under 1.8 translates to a very high risk of bankruptcy,
while companies with scores in between 1.8 and 3.0 range from safe to mild risk of
bankruptcy. Generally, investors of companies with scores under 3.0 should evaluate the
company’s credit risk. As Table 6 displays, Sunoco LP has an Altman Z‐Score of 3.03 meaning
the Company is safe from bankruptcy. In 2012 and 2013, Sunoco LP operated with very little
debt, giving the Company no risk of default. In 2014, the Company took on debt to finance its
acquisitions.
Sunoco’s high Z‐Score of 3.03 is credited to its strong earnings and its limited use of debt. The
Company’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased by 64% in 2014. However, the
Company also increased its liabilities by roughly $750 million due to debt. This increase in
liabilities lowered the Company’s Z‐Score significantly, but the weight associated with the
increase in EBIT keeps Sunoco LP safe from default.
Table 5: Sunoco LP’s Altman Z‐Scores
2012 2013 2014
Altman Z‐Score 13.67 12.65 3.03
Source: Sunoco LP Annual Reports
29. SUNOCO LP (SUN) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) March 17, 2015
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WWBD?
What Would Ben (Graham) Do?
Ben Graham is widely considered the father of value investing, influencing many of today’s
most successful investors, including Warren Buffet. Graham set up ten hurdles to help
investors make investment decisions on a company. Our abbreviated approach uses eight
hurdles. The eight hurdles used to determine whether a company is expected to see strong,
consistent growth in the future can be seen on the following page.
According to Graham, a stock must pass at least three of the hurdles to be considered for
purchase. As Figure 11 shows, Sunoco LP passed six out of the eight hurdles, making it an
extremely attractive investment according to Ben Graham.
Figure 11: Ben Graham Investment Dial
Sunoco LP has only traded publicly for three years, and therefore, we could only look to thee
years of the Company’s past performance instead of five. The Company fails to meet only two
of the hurdles: a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of one half the highest in five years, and a
current ratio of two or more. We believe Sunoco LP is still trading at a high P/E ratio (29.2)
because of the recent acquisitions the Company made, as well as the announcement the
Company made regarding future acquisitions. Investors clearly believe the earnings of the
Company will begin to increase, as the Company’s P/E, while lower than its high of 53.5, is
significantly higher than its low of 18.5. Sunoco LP’s acquisitions also affect its current ratio.
The Company borrowed against its revolver to finance its acquisitions. The increase in short
term debt is holding the current ratio down, while we believe that higher earnings in the
future will increase the firm’s cash flow, thereby raising the current ratio to above 2.
30. SUNOCO LP (SUN) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) March 17, 2015
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Figure 12: Ben Graham Hurdles
Earnings per share (ttm) 4.04$ Price: 50.89$
Earnings to Price Yield 7.93%
10 Year Treasury (2X) 4.20%
P/E ratio as of 12/31/12 53.5
P/E ratio as of 12/31/13 18.5
P/E ratio as of 12/31/14 28.3
Current P/E Ratio 29.2
Dividends per share (ttm) 2.17$ Price: 50.89$
Dividend Yield 4.27%
1/2 Yield on 10 Year Treasury 1.05%
Stock Price 50.89$
Book Value per share as of 12/31/14 55.53$
150% of book Value per share as of 12/31/14 83.29$
Interest‐bearing debt as of 12/31/14 528,335$
Book value as of 12/31/14 1,142,376$
Current assets as of 12/31/14 225,141$
Current liabilities as of 12/31/14 154,682$
Current ratio as of 12/31/14 1.5
EPS for year ended 12/31/14 1.74$
EPS for year ended 12/31/13 1.69$
EPS for year ended 12/31/12 0.42$
EPS for year ended 12/31/14 1.69$
EPS for year ended 12/31/13 1.74$
EPS for year ended 12/31/12 0.42$
Stock price data as of M arch 17, 2015
Hurdle # 7: Earnings Growth of 7% or Higher over past 5 years
Yes
Hurdle # 8: Stability in Growth of Earnings
Yes
Hurdle # 6: Current Ratio of Two or More
No
Hurdle # 3: A Dividend Yield of 1/2 the Yield on 10 Year Treasury
Yes
Yes
Hurdle # 4: A Stock Price less than 1.5 BV
Yes
Hurdle # 5: Total Debt less than Book Value
Hurdle # 2: A P/E Ratio Down to 1/2 of the Stocks Highest in 5 Yrs
No
SUNOCO LP (NYSE: SUN)
Ben Graham Analysis
Hurdle # 1: An Earnings to Price Yield of 2X the Yield on 10 Year Treasury
Yes
Stock Price as of March 17, 2015