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COVID-19 and The State of the Election
- 1. April 2020 COVID-19 andthe State of the Election
- 2.
- 3. The U.S. ison the brink of a recession, or worse 3 Sources: YTD Return (https://www.ytdreturn.com/); Washington Post, 4/16/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/); The Economist/YouGov, 4/12-14/2020, n = 1500 US adults (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6fdl23u606/econTabReport.pdf); Vox, 4/16/2020 (https://www.vox.com/2020/4/16/21223049/unemployment-filings-high-great-depression) 12 – 20% estimated unemployment – highest since the Great Depression 22 million people filed for unemployment since President Trump’s declaration of national emergency -14.38% Dow Jones - 10.40% S&P 500 +1.48% Nasdaq Change from January 2020 65% of Americans think the pandemic will lead to an economic recession 59% also believe a recession will have a serious impact on them personally Through April 17, 2020
- 4. A wider marginof Americans now believe the country is going down the wrong track 4 Sources: Monmouth University, n = 857 US adults, 4/3-7/2020 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_040820.pdf/) 37% 31% 33% 40% 35% 35% 29% 28% 29% 31% 28% 30% 30% 32% 37% 37% 39% 30% 57% 61% 58% 53% 57% 55% 63% 62% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61% 56% 56% 57% 54% 61% Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Wrong track Right direction Are things in the country going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
- 5. Modest bump inPres. Trump’s approval ratings, but most believe he could be doing more 5 Sources: Washington Post, 4/14-19/2020, n = 1,013 US adults (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C67C1vtrqFBk6BXRJvZRRDTo3Um2KOzfqKIvd11SSSU/edit#gid=0); Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx); Quinnipiac, n = 2,077, 4/2-6/2020 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04082020_uksb19.pdf) How well is Trump responding to coronavirus? 23% not so good 19% excellent 2% no opinion The Crisis Bump: President Trump’s bump has been modest and brief compared to other Presidents in times of crisis: • President Trump during Covid-19: +5 pts. in the first few weeks (49%), now back to pre- crisis levels • George W. Bush after 9/11 attacks: +49 pts. (90%) • Jimmy Carter at the beginning of the Iran Hostage Crisis: +29 pts. (58%) • John F. Kennedy after Cuban Missile Crisis: +13 pts. (74%) 25% good 31% poor
- 6. Perception of PresidentTrump’s handling of Coronavirus has improved since March, significant divide along party lines 6 80% 81% 82% 82% 83% 85% 85% 86% 86% 86% 47% 46% 46% 42% 44% 48% 49% 49% 48% 47% 41% 40% 42% 37% 40% 45% 46% 46% 44% 43% 27% 23% 21% 14% 15% 21% 20% 20% 18% 17% 16-Feb-20 23-Feb-20 1-Mar-20 8-Mar-20 15-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 5-Apr-20 12-Apr-20 19-Apr-20 Source: FiveThirtyEight average of available polling (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/) Feb 29: First U.S. death reported March 13: National emergency declared March 21: Millions start filing for unemployment March 26: U.S. deaths surpass 1,000 Republicans All Americans Independents Democrats Those who approve of Trump’s handling of the Coronavirus
- 7. Americans across partylines welcome the $2 trillion stimulus bill 7 79% approve 15% disapprove 6% don’t know 78% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats approve Approval of the $2 trillion stimulus bill passed by Congress Sources: Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx); NBC/WSJ, n = 900 registered voters, 4/13-15/2020 (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ- April-Poll-4-19-20-Release.html); Quinnipiac, n = 2,077, 4/2-6/2020 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04082020_uksb19.pdf) Americans are more worried about the federal government not spending enough to support the economy than they are about the possibility that the government will spend too much.
- 8. Americans are nervousabout returning to normal life after the crisis 8 58% are worried that the U.S. will move too quickly in loosening restrictions. Sources: NBC/WSJ, n = 900 registered voters, 4/13-15/2020 (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ-April-Poll-4-19-20-Release.html); Gallup, 3/27-29/2020 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/306053/americans-hesitant-return-normal-short-term.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication) 44% very unlikely9% very likely 15% unlikely Would return to normal daily life if restrictions were lifted right now 8% likely 24% other
- 9. Potential Impact on2020 Election
- 10. Historic changes tothe nomination process and the way campaigns are run 10 Source: New York Times, 4/2/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/milwaukee-democratic-convention-delayed.html); New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign- primary-calendar-coronavirus.html); CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/elections-coronavirus-voting-rights-mail-in-voting/index.html); CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-super- pacs-go-to-war-as-biden-trump-scale-back-campaigns.html); Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN21P3G0); Politico, 4/2/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/dnc- postpones-presidential-convention-until-august-17-161459); CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-trump-plays-campaign-style-video-in-white-house-briefing.html) • Primaries postponed. Primaries in Ohio, Georgia, Louisiana, and Wyoming have been delayed, and measures such as voting by mail have been implemented for other contests. • Delayed Democratic convention. Originally scheduled for mid-July, the DNC has delayed until the week of August 17, a week before Republican’s regularly-scheduled convention. There has also been some discussion about changing the conventions’ formats and cutting the sizes of the guest lists to limit crowd sizes. • Canceled campaign rallies. With limits on crowd sizes, VP Biden and Pres. Trump have called off all campaign events. Videos and Zoom calls have taken the place of rallies, but they’re not getting the same attention. • More advertising to replace in-person events. Super PACs for both Biden and Trump have committed several million dollars to ads so far. • Pres. Trump benefits from briefings in the absence of regular campaigning. During one briefing Pres. Trump aired a video about his handling of the pandemic that shared similarities to campaign ads.
- 11. Americans support voteby mail, but party leaders are at odds 11 Most Americans (72%) support a requirement for vote-by-mail measures for the November election. It’s uncertain at this point if voting by mail will be possible, and how it will impact turnout on either side. In the wake of COVID-19, ensuring election integrity and combatting voter suppression has quickly become a pivotal election issue – one that will likely be debated for months to come. Sources: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN21P3G0); The Hill, 4/9/2020 (https://thehill.com/homenews/house/492116-pelosi-defends-push-for-mail-in-voting-says-gop-has-been- hijacked); Vox, 4/8/2020 (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/8/21209306/election-2020-vote-by-mail-Wisconsin) But Party leadership is at odds: “We do want to have vote-by-mail because we think that it removes obstacles to participation but it's also healthier at this time. Some people may prefer to go to the polls, but the lower that number is, the healthier for everyone.” Speaker Pelosi “Let's get our economy back on its feet and then we can debate about elections. Do not use this for political gains. That is wrong.” House Minority Leader McCarthy “Republicans should fight very hard when it comes to statewide mail-in voting. Democrats are clamoring for it. Tremendous potential for voter fraud, and for whatever reason, doesn’t work out well for Republicans.” President Trump
- 12. 188 28 16102 54 25 125 The electoral college map shows a tight race to come 12 K Y Electoral vote counter: Democrat: 232 Republican: 204 Safe Democrat Likely Democrat Toss up Likely Republican Safe Republican Source: Cook Political Report, 3/9/2020 (https://www.270towin.com/maps/cook-political-2020-electoral-ratings) Need 270 to win
- 13. Polls show Bidenahead nationally, but the race is close in battleground states Source: NBC/WSJ, n = 900 registered voters, 4/13-15/2020 (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ-April-Poll-4-19-20-Release.html); St. Pete Polls, 4/16-17/2020, n = 5659 registered Florida voters (http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_April17_G84JW.pdf); OH Predictive Insights, 4/7-8/2020, n = 600 likely Arizona voters (https://ohpredictiveinsights.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/i/0639AAE631CB7AE22540EF23F30FEDED/5C93F9ED58F90D146A4D3D471B02C3D7); Public Policy Polling, n = 1,727 Wisconsin voters, 3/10-11/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/WisconsinGeneralResults.pdf); Yahoo/YouGov, n = 1,750 voters in Pennsylvania, 3/6-8/2020 (https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-biden-crushing- sanders-in-michigan-and-other-battleground-states-ahead-of-tuesdays-primary-180347138.html); NBC News/Marist, n = 2,020 Ohio adults, 3/10-13/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_OH-NOS- and-Tables_2003150954.pdf); Public Policy Polling, n = 1,318 NC Voters, 4/14-15/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NCResultsApril2020.pdf) VP Joe Biden 49% 13 Popular Vote Battleground Advantages President Trump 42% Florida TIE* Arizona Biden +9 Michigan Biden +7 Wisconsin Biden +3 Pennsylvania Biden +6 Ohio Biden +4North Carolina Biden +1* *denotes polling within the margin of error
- 14. A challenge forBiden: Only half of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting this year Source: CNN/SSRS, n = 1,022 registered voters, 4/3-6/2020 (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/04/09/rel4c.-.2020.pdf) 14 How enthusiastic are you about voting for president in this year’s election? 37% 21% 43% 35% Republican Reg Voters Democratic Reg Voters Very enthusiastic Extremely enthusiastic 80% 56% Non-white voters are some of the least enthusiastic (41%), which could put Biden at a major disadvantage in critical swing states with close contests. Biden will need to bridge the divide in the Democratic Party to overcome this gap.
- 15. Three states Pres.Trump narrowly won in 2016 will again be pivotal 15 Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan 2016 Result Trump +0.7 Trump +0.7 Trump +0.3 Source: New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president); (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-elections.html); (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-wisconsin-elections.html); (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-michigan-elections.html); Vox (https://www.vox.com/policy-and- politics/2020/4/9/21213793/biden-presumptive-democratic-nominee-trump-2020-polls-swing-state); The Atlantic, 4/9/2020 (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/trump-whitmer-desantis-coronavirus/609727/); (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/old-folks-like-biden-that-could-really-matter-in-november.html, https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/wisconsin-election-swing/); Detroit News (https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/20/poll-michiganians-favor-whitmer-covid-19-handling-over-trump/5164340002/) 2018 Results Sen. Casey (D) re-elected House races split Gov. Whitmer (D) elected Sen. Stabenow (D) re-elected House races split Gov. Evers (D) elected Sen. Baldwin (D) re-elected R’s took more House seats Recent Context Gov. Whitmer has been critical of Pres. Trump’s Covid-19 response as Michigan has been hit hard. Michigan voters favor Whitmer’s handling of the crisis over Trump’s. Gov. Evers’ response to Covid-19 has been widely praised. Democrat Jill Karofsky won an upset State Supreme Court election in April 2020, raising concerns for the GOP. Biden has a perceived home-state advantage.
- 16. Coronavirus may beshifting issues campaigns will likely focus on 16 Healthcare Paid Leave Unemployment Other policy issues not related to the current crisis may be put on the back burner. Source: The Glover Park Group Caucus research, n=200 voters, 3/23/20 (https://gpg.com/report-depth-conversation-american-voters-covid-19/); Quinnipiac, n = 2,077, 4/2-6/2020 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04082020_uksb19.pdf) Education Manufacturing We can expect economic and health-related issues to play an outsized role this year: More Americans believe Pres. Trump would do a better job handling the economy than Biden. More Americans believe Biden would handle healthcare better than Pres. Trump.
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- 18. Coronavirus campaign issueswill deeply impact down ballot races 18 • State/local races are not top of mind and candidates need to walk a fine line. Amidst the pandemic and the presidential election, down ballot candidates, especially challengers, are fighting to be heard. And incumbents can't let their actions appear campaign motivated. • House Democrats have raised more money than Republicans. After bringing in millions in 2019, vulnerable Democrats have more in their coffers. Republican challengers need to catch up, which will be difficult without in-person fundraisers. • Democrats challenging incumbent Senate Republicans in key states have also outraised their opponents. In Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine, Democrats raised more than sitting GOP Senators in the first quarter of 2020. Super PACS for both parties plan to spend a total of $130 million in these states and Iowa this year. • Delayed primaries will create further funding issues for candidates. Candidates on both sides of the aisle are still spending to defeat primary challengers, and not yet able to turn their spending on the general election. Source: Politico, 4/6/2020 (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2020/04/congressional-campaigns-brace-for-fundraising-disaster-1911434); Politico, 4/19/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/19/house-elections-cash-rich-democrats-tighten-grip-194570); Politico 4/20/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/20/democrats-momentum-senate-majority-in- play-194415)
- 19. There are 35Senate seats in play – 23 held by Republicans and 12 held by Democrats 19 ü Democrats are looking to pick up toss-up seats in AZ, CO, NC, and ME. ü Republicans are looking to regain the AL Senate seat that currently leans Republican. ü Retirements: Senators Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Mike Enzi (R-WY), and Tom Udall (D-NM) are all retiring. Democrats need to pick up 4 seats to retake the Senate. Denotes a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 where a Republican Senator is up for re-election in 2020 Denotes a state Pres. Trump won in 2016 where a Democratic Senator is up for re-election in 2020 K Y
- 20. The most vulnerableSenate seats up in 2020 are currently held by Republicans 20 Solid Dem Likely/Lean Dem Toss Up Likely/Lean Rep Solid Rep DE-Coons MN-Smith AZ-McSally AL-Jones AK-Sullivan SD-Rounds IL-Durbin NM-Open CO-Gardner GA-Loeffler AR-Cotton TN-Open MA-Markey MI-Peters ME-Collins IA-Ernst ID-Risch WV-Moore Capito NH-Shaheen NC-Tillis KS-Open LA-Cassidy WY-Open NJ-Booker MT-Daines MS-Hyde-Smith OR-Merkley NE-Sasse RI-Reed OK-Inhofe VA-Warner SC-Graham Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings) To take the majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to retain all current seats and pick up all four toss-ups. If Democrats and Republicans split the Senate, the Vice President will break the tie.
- 21. Republicans need topick up 21 seats in 2020 to retake the House 21 Democrats 232 Republicans 197 Independents 1 Vacant 5 Retirements: 27 House Republicans and 9 House Democrats are retiring. Democrats hold 17 seats that are currently labeled “toss ups.” Only 5 Republican seats hold the same distinction.
- 22. Lean Dem TossUp Lean Rep AZ-01 O’Halleran NH-01 Pappas CA-21 Cox NM-02 Torres Small GA-07 Open AZ-06 Schweikert NJ-02 Van Drew CA-10 Harder NJ-07 Malinowski CA-25 Vacant NY-11 Rose IL-13 Davis FL-15 Spano OH-01 Chabot CA-39 Cisneros NV-03 Lee GA-06 McBath NY-22 Brindisi PA-10 Perry IN-05 Open PA-01 Fitzpatrick CA-48 Rouda NY-19 Delgado IA-01 Finkenauer OK-05 Horn TX-22 Open MI-03 Amash (I) TX-10 McCaul FL-26 Mucarsel- Powell PA-07 Wild IA-02 Open PA-08 Cartwright TX-24 Open MO-02 Wagner TX-21 Roy IL-14 Underwood TX-07 Fletcher IA-03 Axne SC-01 Cunningham NE-02 Bacon KS-03 Davids TX-23 Open ME-02 Golden VA-02 Luria MI-08 Slotkin TX-32 Allred MN-07 Peterson VA-07 Spanberger MI-11 Stevens UT-04 McAdams NJ-03 Kim MN-02 Craig To take control of the House, Republicans will need to retain all current seats and flip 21 additional seats. Although more vulnerable seats are held by Democrats, it’s unlikely that Republicans will pick up enough to flip the House 22 Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings) Italics denote freshman representatives
- 23. Upcoming calendar Date Event April17 Caucus in Wyoming* (mail-in only) April 28 Primary in Ohio* (mail-in only) May 2 Caucus in Guam and primary in Kansas May 12 Primaries in Nebraska May 19 Primary in Oregon May 22 Primary in Hawaii* (mail-in only) June 2 Primaries in Delaware*, DC, Indiana*, Maryland*, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania*, Rhode Island*, and South Dakota June 9 Primaries in Georgia* and West Virginia* June 23 Primaries in Kentucky* and New York* Aug. 17-20 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI* Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Charlotte, NC Nov. 3 Election Day 23 * Rescheduled from earlier date.