Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election in an upset, defeating Hillary Clinton despite polls showing Clinton as the likely winner. Trump was able to win key Midwestern states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin that typically vote Democratic by mobilizing white voters without college degrees. Although Clinton appears poised to win the national popular vote, the electoral college results gave Trump the presidency. Down-ballot, Republicans maintained control of the Senate while Democrats narrowed Republican margins in the House.
Biden leads by double digits as coronavirus takes a toll on the president, Po...Dr Matt Boente MD
President Trump faces a significant challenge in his bid to win reelection in November, with former vice president Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead nationally and the president’s approval ratings crumbling amid a spreading coronavirus pandemic and a weakened economy, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...chrisbrock54
This document discusses ways that pollsters could improve their election predictions in the future based on failures in the 2016 US presidential election. It identifies several issues with polls in 2016, including relying on small sample sizes, outdated polling methods, and neglecting online data sources. It then provides eight fixes for pollsters, such as applying robust statistical models, incorporating modern technology and online data, accurately assessing the impact of scandals, and utilizing digital advertising data from Facebook. The overall message is that pollsters need to embrace new data sources and statistical methods to make more accurate predictions.
The document provides an overview of public perceptions and opinions on key issues in the United States at the end of 2015. It summarizes economic indicators over the past year and shows that while the unemployment rate declined, consumer confidence decreased. Most Americans viewed 2015 as an average year for the country. Perceptions of the threat of terrorism increased significantly compared to the previous year while economic issues were seen as less important. Approval ratings for Obama and Congress remained low.
The document provides an overview of the political landscape heading into the 2020 Iowa caucuses. It discusses declining trust in institutions, a polarized electorate, and key issues like health care and the economy. President Trump's approval ratings have rebounded and the impeachment question remains divided. The economy is performing well but trade wars have impacted some sectors. The Democratic primary field has narrowed to 11 candidates with Biden maintaining his lead nationally though Sanders' support is rising. The general election is expected to be close again with key swing states deciding the outcome.
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - New Hampshire 2-9-2016GloverParkGroup
The document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of February 2016. It summarizes polling data and predictions for both the Republican and Democratic primaries. For the Republican primary, Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus with high evangelical turnout. Donald Trump led in most New Hampshire polls but recent activity suggested Cruz may do better than expected. For the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton barely edged out Bernie Sanders in Iowa. Clinton led national polls but Sanders had narrowed the gap and led strongly in New Hampshire.
Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election in an upset, defeating Hillary Clinton despite polls showing Clinton as the likely winner. Trump was able to win key Midwestern states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin that typically vote Democratic by mobilizing white voters without college degrees. Although Clinton appears poised to win the national popular vote, the electoral college results gave Trump the presidency. Down-ballot, Republicans maintained control of the Senate while Democrats narrowed Republican margins in the House.
Biden leads by double digits as coronavirus takes a toll on the president, Po...Dr Matt Boente MD
President Trump faces a significant challenge in his bid to win reelection in November, with former vice president Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead nationally and the president’s approval ratings crumbling amid a spreading coronavirus pandemic and a weakened economy, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...chrisbrock54
This document discusses ways that pollsters could improve their election predictions in the future based on failures in the 2016 US presidential election. It identifies several issues with polls in 2016, including relying on small sample sizes, outdated polling methods, and neglecting online data sources. It then provides eight fixes for pollsters, such as applying robust statistical models, incorporating modern technology and online data, accurately assessing the impact of scandals, and utilizing digital advertising data from Facebook. The overall message is that pollsters need to embrace new data sources and statistical methods to make more accurate predictions.
The document provides an overview of public perceptions and opinions on key issues in the United States at the end of 2015. It summarizes economic indicators over the past year and shows that while the unemployment rate declined, consumer confidence decreased. Most Americans viewed 2015 as an average year for the country. Perceptions of the threat of terrorism increased significantly compared to the previous year while economic issues were seen as less important. Approval ratings for Obama and Congress remained low.
The document provides an overview of the political landscape heading into the 2020 Iowa caucuses. It discusses declining trust in institutions, a polarized electorate, and key issues like health care and the economy. President Trump's approval ratings have rebounded and the impeachment question remains divided. The economy is performing well but trade wars have impacted some sectors. The Democratic primary field has narrowed to 11 candidates with Biden maintaining his lead nationally though Sanders' support is rising. The general election is expected to be close again with key swing states deciding the outcome.
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - New Hampshire 2-9-2016GloverParkGroup
The document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of February 2016. It summarizes polling data and predictions for both the Republican and Democratic primaries. For the Republican primary, Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus with high evangelical turnout. Donald Trump led in most New Hampshire polls but recent activity suggested Cruz may do better than expected. For the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton barely edged out Bernie Sanders in Iowa. Clinton led national polls but Sanders had narrowed the gap and led strongly in New Hampshire.
The document discusses how big money controls politics in the United States. It argues that the presidential debate process, campaign finance rules, and media gatekeeping combine to limit exposure for candidates without major party backing or large budgets. Only Barack Obama and John McCain, who spent over $1 billion combined, were allowed to participate in the 2008 presidential debates due to criteria set by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Their massive spending advantages also gave them disproportionate advertising exposure through television and other media compared to other candidates who spent far less. This document concludes that average Americans are not fully informed about their leadership options due to this disparity between wealthy candidates and those without large financial resources.
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Natalie Copeland
An in-depth report that reviews the major trends on public attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry, including the latest polling numbers, trends in attitudes since the inquiry announcement, an overview of partisan attitudes, and the impact of impeachment on the President’s approval ratings. The report also details media coverage of the impeachment, examining the amount of coverage, comparisons of the coverage to the Mueller investigation, most shared publications, and most shared news articles.
This document provides an overview of public opinion on energy and environmental issues based on several national polls conducted in 2015-2016. Some key findings include:
- A majority of Americans think the quality of the environment is getting worse and are most concerned about global warming since 2008. However, most doubt global warming will seriously affect them.
- Democrats are more likely than Republicans to view climate change as a threat and believe its effects have already begun. Over half think it is caused entirely by human activity.
- Environmental issues rank low on the list of critical threats to the US but high for Democrats. They also rank toward the bottom of policy priorities.
- Three-quarters of Americans think the government should do whatever it takes to
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape GloverParkGroup
The document provides an overview of American public opinion on several international issues based on recent polls. It finds that while foreign policy issues are not top concerns for Americans, a majority are dissatisfied with the US role in the world. Regarding the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Americans see it as important and disapprove of Obama's handling of it. Around half sympathize more with Israel, though a majority think the US should treat both sides equally. Favorability of Israel has reached both a peak and lowest point over the past 5 years.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of January 2016. It finds that most Americans view the country as headed in the wrong direction and are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Washington. For Republicans, national security has become the top issue over jobs and the economy. The Republican nomination race features 17 candidates narrowing to 12, with Trump and Cruz leading in early polling but many Republicans still undecided. The Democratic race shows Clinton leading Sanders nationally but the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire are close contests. The document outlines the upcoming primary calendar and debates schedule while analyzing voters' views of the campaigns.
The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy viewsPew Research Center
Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes, examines Americans’ foreign and economic policy views in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election in Stockholm, Sweden on January 14, 2016. Pulling from a wide array of survey data, he discusses Americans’ foreign policy priorities as well as views on terrorism, tensions with Russia, relations with China and trade. This presentation is based primarily on two surveys: one conducted by telephone in the U.S. December 8-13, 2015 among 1,500 adults 18 and older, and the other conducted in 40 countries among 45,435 adults 18 and older via telephone and face-to-face interviews from March 25 to May 27, 2015.
American Public Opinion Landscape – International AffairsGloverParkGroup
Majorities of Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of foreign policy issues and think the US should take a less active role in solving world problems. Specifically, seven in ten Americans have an unfavorable view of Russia and Putin, and see Russia as a serious threat. On ISIS, majorities believe the US is losing the fight and things are going badly in Iraq and Syria. Americans support air strikes over ground troops against ISIS but are worried military action could lead to a larger war. Opinion on the Iran nuclear deal varies depending on question wording, and most Americans have little confidence Iran or the US will uphold the agreement. A majority of Americans have heard a lot about the refugee crisis and think the US should do
Governing a Divided Nation - Insights about the 2016 U.S. Presidential ElectionMSL
Public affairs and policy experts from Qorvis MSLGROUP have compiled an extensive election coverage and analysis of how the new U.S. President and Congress will move forward after one of the most bitter campaigns in American history.
For more updates, follow @qorvis or reach out to us on Twitter @msl_group.
This document discusses the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. election. It notes that the pandemic has led to postponed primaries, a delayed Democratic National Convention, canceled campaign rallies, and increased campaign advertising. Polls show Biden leading nationally but some battleground states like Florida are close. Vote by mail is supported by most Americans but opposed by some Republican leaders. Key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump narrowly won in 2016 could decide the election again. Issues related to healthcare and the economy are likely to play a larger role in campaigns due to the pandemic.
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa CaucusesGloverParkGroup
The document provides information on the Iowa caucuses from several recent polls and surveys. For Republicans, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are leading in Iowa according to prediction markets and polls, though Marco Rubio is gaining momentum. For Democrats, Hillary Clinton maintains a narrow lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa, though Sanders' support has been growing. The outcomes in Iowa could depend on factors like voter turnout and any last-minute shifts in support.
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa CaucusesSarah Bonn
The document provides an overview of polling data and analysis related to the 2016 Iowa caucuses for both Republicans and Democrats. For Republicans, polls show Donald Trump and Ted Cruz leading ahead of the caucuses, with Marco Rubio gaining momentum. For Democrats, Hillary Clinton maintains a narrow lead over Bernie Sanders that has been shrinking in recent weeks. Factors like voter turnout, undecided voters, and momentum shifts could impact the final results.
The document contains summaries of several polls of Trump voters on various policy issues. According to the polls:
- Trump voters favor increased federal spending on issues like immigration enforcement, the military, and infrastructure over cuts to programs like foreign aid and welfare. They also support maintaining spending on areas like the environment, healthcare, and education.
- A majority of Trump voters support action on climate change, environmental protection, and renewable energy over pulling out of the Paris Agreement or reducing regulations. However, many also support expanding fossil fuel production.
- Around half of Trump voters believe it should be easier for public figures to sue news media for unfavorable coverage, and support cuts to federal funding for public media.
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
Brunswick Insight has released its US Post-Election Business Outlook research which includes survey data from Washington elites and US Financial elites.
For more information please contact our Washington, DC office: http://www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
This document provides an election night viewing guide, outlining key states and races to watch as polls close between 6-7PM and 7PM Eastern time. It recommends ignoring early exit poll leaks and turnout reports, as initial exit polls are often inaccurate and long lines do not necessarily indicate high turnout. As Virginia polls close at 7PM, the author notes several counties to watch that could provide early clues about the outcome there and in other competitive states.
Public Opinion Landscape - International AffairsGloverParkGroup
The document provides an overview of American public opinion on various international affairs issues based on recent polls. It finds that while foreign policy issues are not the top concerns for Americans, a majority are closely following the situation in Ukraine and are worried about it leading to regional conflict. Views on Obama's handling of the Ukraine situation are mixed. There is reluctance to get too involved militarily but support for economic sanctions on Russia. A majority see Iran's nuclear program and international terrorism as critical threats. Opinions on the war in Afghanistan depend on question wording, and most believe the US has failed in its goals there. Relations with Israel continue to be seen as important to US interests.
Public Opinion Landscape - Government Shutdown AftermathGloverParkGroup
The document summarizes public opinion research on views of the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate from October 2013. It finds that dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and concerns about the economy were substantial. Most Americans saw the shutdown negatively impacting the economy. Views of Obama, Congress, and congressional leaders were mostly negative. Republicans faced a sharp decline in their image and favorability during this time period, with most Americans blaming Republicans for the budget crisis. Support for a third party reached new highs as dissatisfaction with the two parties increased.
The 2016 presidential election is already being billed as the most expensive in history, but the value of its impact on U.S. companies and multinationals operating in the U.S. could be much greater. From the fate of corporate inversions to the future of energy and climate change regulations, never before has so much ridden on the outcome of a single vote.
For more information contact:
David Sutphen: www.brunswickgroup.com/people/directory/david-sutphen/
Or our Washington, DC office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
In this latest public opinion landscape, GPG's Research and Insights team look at tax reform, DACA, gun control, and the Russia Investigation, as well as a look ahead to the 2018 midterms.
This document analyzes the results of the 2016 US presidential election and identifies key factors that impacted the outcome. It summarizes that:
1. There was significant anger and frustration with the status quo that drove voters to take risks for change, and Democrats lost ground with the working class.
2. Demographics are not destiny, as turnout changed in ways that hurt Democrats, such as increased rural and white voter turnout.
3. Lack of an economic message and vision hurt Democrats, and having a populist economic message combined with reform can win.
4. Perceptions of race, immigration, and gender roles strongly correlated with votes for Trump.
The document provides an overview of the political landscape heading into the 2020 Iowa caucuses. It discusses the polarized state of the country and declining trust in institutions. President Trump's approval ratings have rebounded and the impeachment question remains divided. The economy remains stable though trade wars have impacted some sectors. The presidential and Democratic primary races are very close in early polling. The outcome of the 2020 election will have significant implications for policy and the courts.
The document discusses how big money controls politics in the United States. It argues that the presidential debate process, campaign finance rules, and media gatekeeping combine to limit exposure for candidates without major party backing or large budgets. Only Barack Obama and John McCain, who spent over $1 billion combined, were allowed to participate in the 2008 presidential debates due to criteria set by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Their massive spending advantages also gave them disproportionate advertising exposure through television and other media compared to other candidates who spent far less. This document concludes that average Americans are not fully informed about their leadership options due to this disparity between wealthy candidates and those without large financial resources.
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Natalie Copeland
An in-depth report that reviews the major trends on public attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry, including the latest polling numbers, trends in attitudes since the inquiry announcement, an overview of partisan attitudes, and the impact of impeachment on the President’s approval ratings. The report also details media coverage of the impeachment, examining the amount of coverage, comparisons of the coverage to the Mueller investigation, most shared publications, and most shared news articles.
This document provides an overview of public opinion on energy and environmental issues based on several national polls conducted in 2015-2016. Some key findings include:
- A majority of Americans think the quality of the environment is getting worse and are most concerned about global warming since 2008. However, most doubt global warming will seriously affect them.
- Democrats are more likely than Republicans to view climate change as a threat and believe its effects have already begun. Over half think it is caused entirely by human activity.
- Environmental issues rank low on the list of critical threats to the US but high for Democrats. They also rank toward the bottom of policy priorities.
- Three-quarters of Americans think the government should do whatever it takes to
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape GloverParkGroup
The document provides an overview of American public opinion on several international issues based on recent polls. It finds that while foreign policy issues are not top concerns for Americans, a majority are dissatisfied with the US role in the world. Regarding the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Americans see it as important and disapprove of Obama's handling of it. Around half sympathize more with Israel, though a majority think the US should treat both sides equally. Favorability of Israel has reached both a peak and lowest point over the past 5 years.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of January 2016. It finds that most Americans view the country as headed in the wrong direction and are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Washington. For Republicans, national security has become the top issue over jobs and the economy. The Republican nomination race features 17 candidates narrowing to 12, with Trump and Cruz leading in early polling but many Republicans still undecided. The Democratic race shows Clinton leading Sanders nationally but the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire are close contests. The document outlines the upcoming primary calendar and debates schedule while analyzing voters' views of the campaigns.
The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy viewsPew Research Center
Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes, examines Americans’ foreign and economic policy views in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election in Stockholm, Sweden on January 14, 2016. Pulling from a wide array of survey data, he discusses Americans’ foreign policy priorities as well as views on terrorism, tensions with Russia, relations with China and trade. This presentation is based primarily on two surveys: one conducted by telephone in the U.S. December 8-13, 2015 among 1,500 adults 18 and older, and the other conducted in 40 countries among 45,435 adults 18 and older via telephone and face-to-face interviews from March 25 to May 27, 2015.
American Public Opinion Landscape – International AffairsGloverParkGroup
Majorities of Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of foreign policy issues and think the US should take a less active role in solving world problems. Specifically, seven in ten Americans have an unfavorable view of Russia and Putin, and see Russia as a serious threat. On ISIS, majorities believe the US is losing the fight and things are going badly in Iraq and Syria. Americans support air strikes over ground troops against ISIS but are worried military action could lead to a larger war. Opinion on the Iran nuclear deal varies depending on question wording, and most Americans have little confidence Iran or the US will uphold the agreement. A majority of Americans have heard a lot about the refugee crisis and think the US should do
Governing a Divided Nation - Insights about the 2016 U.S. Presidential ElectionMSL
Public affairs and policy experts from Qorvis MSLGROUP have compiled an extensive election coverage and analysis of how the new U.S. President and Congress will move forward after one of the most bitter campaigns in American history.
For more updates, follow @qorvis or reach out to us on Twitter @msl_group.
This document discusses the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. election. It notes that the pandemic has led to postponed primaries, a delayed Democratic National Convention, canceled campaign rallies, and increased campaign advertising. Polls show Biden leading nationally but some battleground states like Florida are close. Vote by mail is supported by most Americans but opposed by some Republican leaders. Key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump narrowly won in 2016 could decide the election again. Issues related to healthcare and the economy are likely to play a larger role in campaigns due to the pandemic.
Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa CaucusesGloverParkGroup
The document provides information on the Iowa caucuses from several recent polls and surveys. For Republicans, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are leading in Iowa according to prediction markets and polls, though Marco Rubio is gaining momentum. For Democrats, Hillary Clinton maintains a narrow lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa, though Sanders' support has been growing. The outcomes in Iowa could depend on factors like voter turnout and any last-minute shifts in support.
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa CaucusesSarah Bonn
The document provides an overview of polling data and analysis related to the 2016 Iowa caucuses for both Republicans and Democrats. For Republicans, polls show Donald Trump and Ted Cruz leading ahead of the caucuses, with Marco Rubio gaining momentum. For Democrats, Hillary Clinton maintains a narrow lead over Bernie Sanders that has been shrinking in recent weeks. Factors like voter turnout, undecided voters, and momentum shifts could impact the final results.
The document contains summaries of several polls of Trump voters on various policy issues. According to the polls:
- Trump voters favor increased federal spending on issues like immigration enforcement, the military, and infrastructure over cuts to programs like foreign aid and welfare. They also support maintaining spending on areas like the environment, healthcare, and education.
- A majority of Trump voters support action on climate change, environmental protection, and renewable energy over pulling out of the Paris Agreement or reducing regulations. However, many also support expanding fossil fuel production.
- Around half of Trump voters believe it should be easier for public figures to sue news media for unfavorable coverage, and support cuts to federal funding for public media.
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
Brunswick Insight has released its US Post-Election Business Outlook research which includes survey data from Washington elites and US Financial elites.
For more information please contact our Washington, DC office: http://www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
This document provides an election night viewing guide, outlining key states and races to watch as polls close between 6-7PM and 7PM Eastern time. It recommends ignoring early exit poll leaks and turnout reports, as initial exit polls are often inaccurate and long lines do not necessarily indicate high turnout. As Virginia polls close at 7PM, the author notes several counties to watch that could provide early clues about the outcome there and in other competitive states.
Public Opinion Landscape - International AffairsGloverParkGroup
The document provides an overview of American public opinion on various international affairs issues based on recent polls. It finds that while foreign policy issues are not the top concerns for Americans, a majority are closely following the situation in Ukraine and are worried about it leading to regional conflict. Views on Obama's handling of the Ukraine situation are mixed. There is reluctance to get too involved militarily but support for economic sanctions on Russia. A majority see Iran's nuclear program and international terrorism as critical threats. Opinions on the war in Afghanistan depend on question wording, and most believe the US has failed in its goals there. Relations with Israel continue to be seen as important to US interests.
Public Opinion Landscape - Government Shutdown AftermathGloverParkGroup
The document summarizes public opinion research on views of the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate from October 2013. It finds that dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and concerns about the economy were substantial. Most Americans saw the shutdown negatively impacting the economy. Views of Obama, Congress, and congressional leaders were mostly negative. Republicans faced a sharp decline in their image and favorability during this time period, with most Americans blaming Republicans for the budget crisis. Support for a third party reached new highs as dissatisfaction with the two parties increased.
The 2016 presidential election is already being billed as the most expensive in history, but the value of its impact on U.S. companies and multinationals operating in the U.S. could be much greater. From the fate of corporate inversions to the future of energy and climate change regulations, never before has so much ridden on the outcome of a single vote.
For more information contact:
David Sutphen: www.brunswickgroup.com/people/directory/david-sutphen/
Or our Washington, DC office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
In this latest public opinion landscape, GPG's Research and Insights team look at tax reform, DACA, gun control, and the Russia Investigation, as well as a look ahead to the 2018 midterms.
This document analyzes the results of the 2016 US presidential election and identifies key factors that impacted the outcome. It summarizes that:
1. There was significant anger and frustration with the status quo that drove voters to take risks for change, and Democrats lost ground with the working class.
2. Demographics are not destiny, as turnout changed in ways that hurt Democrats, such as increased rural and white voter turnout.
3. Lack of an economic message and vision hurt Democrats, and having a populist economic message combined with reform can win.
4. Perceptions of race, immigration, and gender roles strongly correlated with votes for Trump.
The document provides an overview of the political landscape heading into the 2020 Iowa caucuses. It discusses the polarized state of the country and declining trust in institutions. President Trump's approval ratings have rebounded and the impeachment question remains divided. The economy remains stable though trade wars have impacted some sectors. The presidential and Democratic primary races are very close in early polling. The outcome of the 2020 election will have significant implications for policy and the courts.
5 Things You Need to Know About the Coming Trump vs. Clinton ShowdownAtif Fareed
What to expect if The Donald doesn’t change course, and what to expect if he does.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-things-you-should-know-213875#ixzz48Ld19944
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
The document discusses the influence of mass media on U.S. elections. It notes that while voters see media as influential, they also distrust media coverage and think it focuses too much on trivial issues rather than substantive policy topics. Additionally, media coverage tends to emphasize the "horse race" aspects of elections rather than exploring candidates' positions. The document also examines questions around media bias, the impact of money and transparency in elections, and the rising influence of social media.
Our two main political parties are at a crossroads. Can a consumer marketing lens reveal a way forward?
By Stacy Baas and Samantha Cabaluna
Full text of the report available at https://www.baasstrategy.com/blog/making-sense-of-the-moment-b4tsw
2024 US Elections - FX Outlook (20/01/24)Harry Purdie
With the Iowa caucus bringing the November US elections into scope for global investors, the January edition of the Mark-Up examines the potential election outcomes and what they will mean for global FX.
The document discusses findings from a study on truth and politics. Some key findings include:
- People feel it is difficult to find truth in politics today due to the large amount of information. Politicians are often ranked as the least truthful profession.
- Issues like government spending and taxes are where people are least likely to think politicians tell the truth.
- While people want more truth in politics, some feel it is unrealistic to expect from politicians due to pressures of getting elected.
- When it comes to media, people still rely most on network news but feel the line between facts and opinions is blurred. People seek independent sources.
- There is a desire for changes to the political system or term limits to bring in
This document summarizes the results of the 2012 Massachusetts Senate election between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown. It finds that Warren's victory further weakened the already small Republican Party in the state and solidified its status as a one-party dominated state. It analyzes demographic data from the election, finding that Brown underperformed compared to 2010 among key groups like women, younger voters, union members, and those without a college degree. This suggests that for Republicans to be competitive in future Massachusetts elections, they will need to broaden their appeal beyond their current base.
Pew Research: 2012 US Election Campaign News Source SurveyBrian Crotty
Twitter, Facebook Play Very Modest Roles
Cable Leads the Pack as Campaign News Source. With a contested primary in only one party this year, fewer Americans are closely following news about the presidential campaign than four years ago. As a consequence, long-term declines in the number of people getting campaign news from such sources as local TV and network news have steepened, and even the number gathering campaign news online, which had nearly tripled between 2000 and 2008, has leveled off in 2012.
Doug Schoen's Poll on American Expectations from the Obama Administrationaspeninstitute
Douglas Schoen conducted a survey of 800 voters to provide context for decisions made by the Obama administration. Key findings include:
- While Obama remains personally popular, his policies are less so and voters are skeptical they will create jobs or increase the deficit.
- The electorate supports Obama's healthcare and climate initiatives but doubts their efficiency and impact.
- There is no appetite for another stimulus package amid concerns over government involvement in the economy and rising deficits.
- On foreign policy, voters generally approve of Obama's handling of most issues but are divided on Afghanistan and using torture against terrorists.
The document summarizes survey data from 2013 to 2016 that shows American voters are experiencing a political revolution against the established political order. Key findings include:
- Voters believe the country is in decline and the American Dream may not be attainable for future generations.
- They see a rigged political system dominated by special interests over ordinary citizens.
- Both Democratic and Republican parties are seen as too beholden to special interests to create meaningful change.
- There is strong support for independent candidates and a potential third party that truly represents voters.
- A hypothetical independent "Candidate Smith" outperforms all current candidates in polls, showing demand for an alternative to the status quo parties.
Partisans remain sharply divided in their views of the news media according to a 2018 Pew Research Center survey. The survey found:
1) Democrats (82%) are much more likely than Republicans (38%) to think news media criticism keeps political leaders from doing things they shouldn't, continuing a large partisan divide from 2017. This gap is the largest in over 30 years of surveys.
2) Most Americans (71%) think news will be accurate, but many (68%) believe news organizations cover up mistakes. Most also feel the media doesn't understand them or that they are disconnected from their news sources.
3) While few have high trust in social media for news (4%), more have trust in national
The survey found that in early 2010, one year into Barack Obama's presidency, the mind and mood of Americans was downbeat rather than optimistic. Many Americans appear to have "hunkered down" in response to ongoing economic stresses, becoming less socially and politically engaged. They expressed significant pessimism about financial and economic issues and were uncertain about healthcare reform efforts. While some were actively fighting or protesting issues, others seemed to have adopted a "freeze" response by socially withdrawing and focusing inward on basic necessities.
The survey found that in early 2010, one year into Barack Obama's presidency, Americans were down rather than up, resentful rather than grateful, and pessimistic rather than optimistic. Many Americans appear to have "hunkered down" in response to stress over the past year, decreasing activities and turning inward. There is widespread distrust of politicians and a loss of confidence in American politics. While some have become more active in response to current issues, others have decreased activities like volunteering, suggesting many Americans have adopted a "freeze" response to stress. Overall, the national mind and mood shows anxiety, uncertainty, and a lack of optimism about the future.
IPR Third Annual Disinformation in Society ReportOlivia Kresic
The document is the third annual report by the Institute for Public Relations on disinformation in American society. Some key findings from the report include:
- Nearly 70% of Americans view misinformation and disinformation as major problems in society, more than issues like infectious diseases or terrorism.
- Over 70% believe disinformation will prolong the COVID-19 pandemic and impacts elections and democracy.
- Facebook, politicians, and the U.S. government were seen as the top sources spreading disinformation.
- Americans have the most trust in family and friends as news sources and the least trust in social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter.
The Great Revolt audiobook analyzes Donald Trump's election and whether it represented a fundamental shift in the electorate. Authors Salena Zito and Brad Todd traveled over 27,000 miles interviewing more than 300 Trump voters across 10 swing counties. They found that Trump's supporters were diverse but united in wanting a movement that prioritizes pragmatism over ideology and demands respect from Washington. Zito and Todd argue that Trump's victory was not a fluke but rather signaled tectonic changes in political parties and media that were ignored prior to the 2016 election.
The 2012 election resulted in a narrow victory for President Obama despite a still struggling economy. Obama was able to energize key parts of his coalition, including younger voters, minorities, and women. Romney faced challenges in appealing to these groups and struggled to convince voters that he cared about average Americans. The election highlighted the increasing polarization of the electorate along racial and partisan lines. It remains to be seen whether the Republican party can adapt to the changing demographics of the country.
The document discusses the upcoming 2016 US presidential election and its potential impacts. It analyzes candidate choices, voter demographics, key issues, and electoral maps. The election is framed as highly unpredictable with both major candidates holding very negative ratings. The outcome could significantly influence policy on trade, taxes, energy, immigration and more. Whoever wins will also impact which party controls Congress in the upcoming years.
The Monmouth University Poll finds that the presidential race in Indiana has tightened significantly since August, with Trump now leading Clinton by only 4 points compared to an 11-point lead previously. Pence's approval rating as governor has also dropped. In the Senate race, Evan Bayh maintains a 6-point lead over Todd Young despite attacks against him. The governor's race has seen the most movement, with Democrat John Gregg now leading by 12 points after being virtually tied in August.
Similar to Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020) (19)
Recent years have seen a disturbing rise in violence, discrimination, and intolerance against Christian communities in various Islamic countries. This multifaceted challenge, deeply rooted in historical, social, and political animosities, demands urgent attention. Despite the escalating persecution, substantial support from the Western world remains lacking.
projet de traité négocié à Istanbul (anglais).pdfEdouardHusson
Ceci est le projet de traité qui avait été négocié entre Russes et Ukrainiens à Istanbul en mars 2022, avant que les Etats-Unis et la Grande-Bretagne ne détournent Kiev de signer.
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लालू यादव की जीवनी LALU PRASAD YADAV BIOGRAPHYVoterMood
Discover the life and times of Lalu Prasad Yadav with a comprehensive biography in Hindi. Learn about his early days, rise in politics, controversies, and contribution.
विवादास्पद फिल्म के ट्रेलर से गाली-गलौज वाले दृश्य हटा दिए गए हैं, और जुर्माना लगाया गया है। सुप्रीम कोर्ट और बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट दोनों ने फिल्म की रिलीज पर रोक लगा दी है और उसे निलंबित कर दिया है। पहले यह फिल्म 7 जून और फिर 14 जून को रिलीज होने वाली थी, लेकिन अब यह 21 जून को रिलीज हो रही है।
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Federal Authorities Urge Vigilance Amid Bird Flu Outbreak | The Lifesciences ...The Lifesciences Magazine
Federal authorities have advised the public to remain vigilant but calm in response to the ongoing bird flu outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu.
19 जून को बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट ने विवादित फिल्म ‘हमारे बारह’ को 21 जून को थिएटर में रिलीज करने का रास्ता साफ कर दिया, हालांकि यह सुनिश्चित करने के बाद कि फिल्म निर्माता कुछ आपत्तिजनक अंशों को हटा दें।
मद्रास उच्च न्यायालय के सेवानिवृत्त न्यायाधीश और केंद्र और राज्य सरकार के नौकरशाहों सहित आठ अन्य लोगों की अध्यक्षता वाली एक उच्च स्तरीय समिति ने 2021 में NEET परीक्षा को खत्म करने की सिफारिश की थी। महत्वपूर्ण बात यह है कि रिपोर्ट में 2010-11 में ग्रामीण पृष्ठभूमि से तमिल छात्रों की संख्या में 61.5% की भारी गिरावट को दर्शाया गया है। इसके बजाय मेट्रो छात्रों में वृद्धि दर्ज की गई है।
Christian persecution in Islamic countries has intensified, with alarming incidents of violence, discrimination, and intolerance. This article highlights recent attacks in Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq, exposing the multifaceted challenges faced by Christian communities. Despite the severity of these atrocities, the Western world's response remains muted due to political, economic, and social considerations. The urgent need for international intervention is underscored, emphasizing that without substantial support, the future of Christianity in these regions is at grave risk.
https://ecspe.org/the-rise-of-christian-persecution-in-islamic-countries/
Shark Tank Jargon | Operational ProfitabilityTheUnitedIndian
Don't let fancy business words confuse you! This blog is your cheat sheet to understanding the Shark Tank Jargon. We'll translate all the confusing terms like "valuation" (how much the company is worth) and "royalty" (a fee for using someone's idea). You'll be swimming with the Sharks like a pro in no time!
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La defensa del expresidente Juan Orlando Hernández, declarado culpable por narcotráfico en EE. UU., solicitó este viernes al juez Kevin Castel que imponga una condena mínima de 40 años de prisión.
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La defensa del expresidente Juan Orlando Hernández, declarado culpable por narcotráfico en EE. UU., solicitó este viernes al juez Kevin Castel que imponga una condena mínima de 40 años de prisión.
2. 1MEMO: Numbers Driving the Narrative
1.8% Joe Biden’s Average Lead in Florida
• The good news for Democrats is that former Vice President Biden still leads
Trump in all the key battleground states, according to polling averages tallied
by Real Clear Politics.
• The bad news is that his lead in other states shrank considerably over the
summer, including Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida, where his lead
averaged 8.4% in late July.
WHAT IT MEANS: Tightening is inevitable in a closely contested
presidential race, and national polls still show President Trump
consistently falling short of the 45.9% of the national vote he won in 2016.
But Trump also seems to be benefiting from a shift in media coverage
away from COVID-19 and the racial-justice protests that dominated June
and July.
3. 2MEMO: Numbers Driving the Narrative
56% Biden voters supporting him because he is NOT Trump
• Asked the main reason for supporting either candidate, Biden voters were
definitive – he’s not the guy currently occupying the Oval Office, according to a
summer survey by the Pew Research Center. Biden’s leadership was a distant
second (19%).
• Conversely, 61% of Biden supporters would be angry if Trump is re-elected,
compared with 37% of Trump supporters who said they would be angry if
Biden wins, so this anti-Trump sentiment could be enough motivation to drive
Biden voters to the polls.
WHAT IT MEANS: Reelection campaigns are always a referendum
on the incumbent, and Trump is uniquely polarizing. While this number
suggests relatively soft support for Biden, it may not matter if Trump’s
disapproval stays north of 50%. The dynamic is reminiscent of 2016 when
Trump’s top attribute was that he was NOT Hillary Clinton.
4. 3MEMO: Numbers Driving the Narrative
5M
Number of popular votes Trump could lose by and still
win re-election
• Four years after Clinton tallied 2.9 million more popular votes than Trump but
still fell 38 Electoral College votes short of the presidency, that gap might be
even wider in November, according to an analysis by David Wasserman of the
Cook Political Report.
• The reason: Democratic strongholds are diversifying faster than critical swing
states surrounding the Great Lakes, with a few notable exceptions.
WHAT IT MEANS: This is the Democrats’ ultimate doomsday
scenario. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are relatively older and
whiter, with a high share of white voters without college degrees, and
that trend could help Trump in November, even if he loses by a bigger
margin in the popular vote. Long term, the diversifying battlegrounds of
Arizona, Florida, Georgia – coupled with an eventually competitive Texas –
could prove a bigger problem for the GOP.
5. 4MEMO: Numbers Driving the Narrative
7.8M Jump in unemployment since February
• The number of unemployed Americans dropped by another 2.8 million people
in August, with 13.6 million people in the U.S. still out of work, according to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• This is a major improvement from April, when 23.1 million people were out of
work, but it is a far cry from just February, when 5.8 million were unemployed.
WHAT IT MEANS: The economy has added jobs for four straight
months, but the pace has slowed dramatically. Independent voters tend
to judge politicians on the direction of the job market, so the summer job
surge may explain why Trump still outperforms Biden on the economy.
And historically—since 1928—the incumbent party has won nearly 90% of
presidential elections when the S&P 500 is in an upswing. But will this
sentiment hold, if these indicators slow or reverse?
6. 5MEMO: Numbers Driving the Narrative
24.3% Share of Americans working remotely
• This is actually a decline from earlier in the year when more than 40% of the
American workforce toiled from home during the height of the pandemic-
related lockdown.
• And these workers are the lucky ones; in addition to having jobs, they
accounted for roughly half of all wages earned, according to a Stanford study
of the remote workforce.
WHAT IT MEANS: COVID has transformed the economy in ways that
won’t reverse immediately. Working from home has benefits (no
commute) and drawbacks (disruptive kids). Most people are not as
efficient when they work from home, but a large chunk of the workforce
would like the option of working from home, at least part-time, after the
pandemic ends.
7. 6MEMO: Numbers Driving the Narrative
41%
Share of Americans who report that they only pay
attention to one or two trusted news sources
• According to the Knight Foundation, more Americans say it is harder (62%)
rather than easier (36%) to be well-informed because of all the sources of
information available.
• Reasons cited for feeling overwhelmed include the mix of news interspersed
with non-news on the web (72%), followed by the pace of reporting (63%) and
the increased number of news organizations (63%).
WHAT IT MEANS: The sheer amount of news available is making it
harder for Americans as they search for information they trust.
Consequently, their solution is to commit to only a small number of
sources with party affiliation being the primary determinant. A polarized
media landscape is only deepening our political divisions with implications
that will be felt well beyond the election year.