Food Security - Australian cases, frameworks and leadership

2 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
Young Australians in International Affairs is an Australian
not-for profit organisation committed to engaging young
Australians in international affairs and foreign policy, and
to building the high calibre leaders necessary to navigate
Australia's future in the Indo-Pacific Asian century.
https://bit.ly/31IhzKc

We will cover:
• Food security in the NT
• Big picture food security
• Food Security in Australia
• Rations
• Production
• Leadership frameworks
• Q&A
Keep in mind we will be weaving these concepts
throughout the talk!

IntroductionsFood shortages have been the leitmotiv of human history, a fact perhaps too readily forgotten by
affluent western populations with no memory of shortages or rationing (Young, 2004)

A little bit about me
• Gary Leigh
• Darwin local
• Worked for Outback Stores on the technology aspect of the operation
• Foremost trained in national strategy and policy for security issues
• Passionate about the North of Australia and all that comes with it
• Current focus is on cyber security domain and how technology underpins
broader security issues
• A proud fellow CDU student!
• Street cred includes being a graduate of crisis strategy and management at the
National Security College

First:Tell me what you know about food security
https://australianfoodtimeline.com.au/
There are many ways by which we obtain food today

• A)When was the last time
you were hungry?
• B)When was the last time
you ate healthy?
• C) Craziest thing you’ve ever
eaten? Entomophagy (Eating
insects)
• D) Is “fake” food real food?
• E) Ever been involved in
food security?
“It has been estimated that the average American eats
about two pounds of dead insects and insect parts a
year. These bugs are in vegetables, rice, beer, pasta,
spinach and broccoli.” – Center for Invasive Species
Research

Food Security (NT)
What is the state of Food Security in the North?

A Little bit about the law
First came: NorthernTerritory National
Emergency Response 2007
But after much criticism and review:
“Stronger Futures” Legislation

But wait:
When does food security “exist”?
Does it need to be in the law?
Or can it just be a “Situation”?

Key point
Wherever you go in your career factor in
the legality of, the policy for and the
protocol of your operation for food
provision.
To the right is just the regulation for food
in the NT Alone.
Food safety and regulations
•Best before and use by explained
•Cleaning and sanitising
•Cut fruit, fruit juices and smoothies
•Defrosting
•Doggy bags
•Egg safety for businesses
•Egg safety for consumers
•Fish and bush food containing PFAS chemicals
•Food business registration exemptions for charities and community
events
•Food labelling
•Food recalls
•Food safety for tour operators
•Food safety standards
•Fruit and vegetables at market stalls
•Grease traps for your food business
•Handwashing
•Hazardous foods, cooling and reheating
•Information for food handlers
•Mercury in fish
•Mobile food vehicles
•Pest control: food businesses
•Sausage sizzles and barbeques
•Skills and knowledge for food workers
•Stacking the refrigerator
•Starting a food business
•Temperature control - 2 to 4 hour guide
•Temperature logbook
•Transporting food
•Use of thermometers

The Law - NorthernTerritory National
• Deployment of additional police to affected communities.
• New restrictions on alcohol and kava
• Pornography filters on publicly funded computers
• Compulsory acquisition of townships currently held under the title
provisions of the NativeTitle Act 1993 through five year leases with
compensation on a basis other than just terms. (The number of
settlements involved remains unclear.)
• Commonwealth funding for provision of community services
• Removal of customary law and cultural practice considerations from bail
applications and sentencing within criminal proceedings
• Suspension of the permit system controlling access to Aboriginal
communities
• Quarantining of a proportion of welfare benefits to all recipients in the
designated communities and of all benefits of those who are judged to
have neglected their children
• The abolition of the Community Development Employment
Projects (CDEP).
90% social concerns. 10% food

The Law - NorthernTerritory National
• Pros:
• Put Food Security on the map
• Cons:
• Put Food Security on the map,
• Human rights debate? What can and can’t you have? Alcohol ect.
• Gatekeeping of food provision
• Gray area:
• Reinforced aboriginal corporation divide from “typical” Australian
structural compositions. (E.g. land claiming, cultural laws, corporate
law intersection)
• Food security not a thing before this?
https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2007B00158

The Law – Stronger Futures
https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2012L02073
https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2012L02073/Explanatory%20Statement/Text

The Law – Stronger Futures
• Pros:
• Put Food Security on the map
• Put a framework in place for actionable
processes to address food security (Legally)
• Cons:
• Same cons as before but as time
progressed work was done to address them
(We won’t cover that here)

Food Security Areas (NT)

Katherine Municipality (Not a food security area)
Area: 7,421 km²
Katherine Region (Food security area)
Area: 336,674km²

C0mplete list available in the
legislation and the NT Government
offers a list of alcohol free zones

Outback Stores
• Established in 2006
• Grew from 3 stores to 38 today
• Core mission to ensure food security, positive
community outcomes
• Fair share of Australia’s inhabitable interior
• Commonwealth Company under DPM&C
• 1 dollar fresh bottled water
• Commitment to providing economic opportunities
and nutritious food availability

• Bardi Ardyaloon
• Maningrida
• Beagle Bay
• Beswick
• Canteen Creek
• Cardwell
• Jilkminggan
• Engawala
• Bulman
• Illawarra
• Imanpa
• Kiwirrkurra
• Ringer Soak
• Milyakburra, Bickerton Island
• Mimili
• Ali Curung
• Mt Liebig
• Mulan
• Nguiu, Bathurst Island
• Ngukurr
• Yuendumu
• Pigeon Hole
• Nyirripi
• OakValley
• Papunya
• SantaTeresa
• TiTree
• Titjikala
• Tjuntjuntjara
• Uraro
• Turkey Creek
• Epenarra
• Willowra
• Balgo
• Turkey Creek
• Yalata
• Angurugu
• Yiyili
• Yungngora, Fitzroy Crossing

Kiwikurra
200 odd people
live 700km away
from Alice Springs.
It is one of the
most remote
communities in
the
Gibson desert has
an area of 155,000
km or just bigger
than the size of
Nepal.

OakValley
100km away from
the uninhabitable
nuclear testing
range from 1950
when the
Australian
Government saw
to curry favor for
atomic weaponry
for the UK
150 odd people
here

The “Meta”
Food security is a multi-dimensional phenomenon.

Definitions
. . . food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global
levels is achieved when all people, at all times, have physical and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life (Wood Food Summit, 1996). Globalization and food
security: novel questions in a novel context? Progress in Development Studies, E.M.Young Department of Geography, Staffordshire
University, UK (P4)
“Food security [is] a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have
physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that
meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” -
2001 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN)

Definitions
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life. Household food security is the application of
this concept to the family level, with individuals within households as the focus of
concern.
Food insecurity exists when people do not have adequate physical, social or economic
access to food as defined above
http://www.fao.org/3/y4671e/y4671e06.htm

Different “levels” of food security

What even is food?
“any nutritious substance that people or animals eat or drink or that plants absorb
in order to maintain life and growth.” – Google

What even is food? –The government
https://www.ato.gov.au/print-publications/gst-and-food/?page=2

Health and nutrition in disaster management –
Phase based

What’s the big picture?
Related but not mutually exclusive
- Accessibility
- Equity
- Availability
- Sustainability
- Quality
- Population growth
- Countries
- Culture around food
- Environmental impact
- Systems thinking, everything is
integrated
- Security arrangements including law
- Disaster management policies and
planning and relief capabilities
- Multinational organisations
Food
Security
Health and
Nutrition
Production
Economics
Environment

How do you get secure
or insecure?
- In the absence of the requisite
characters of a food stable nation
external actors will attempt to alleviate
symptoms.
- e.g. Humanitarian crises, economic
development, caretaker government,
carrot and stick
- Can we measure capability via
sustainability and sharing?
A requisite amount of
-Technological maturity
-Economic prosperity
-Knowledge
-Storage and processing
-Production capability
-Environmental capacity
-Conducive political conditions
-Health determinates identified
-Cultural enmeshment
-Logistics
Depletion of
-Technological maturity
-Economic prosperity
-Knowledge
-Storage and processing
-Production capability
-Environmental capacity
-Conducive political conditions
-Health determinates identified
-Cultural enmeshment
-Logistics

Supply chains
Supply chains are the physical and
information systems and processes used to
deliver a product or service from one
location or entity to another.TheAustralian
food supply chain ensures that people living
in Australia have access to food. It
encompasses food for consumption in or out
of the home.
We will come back to supply chains a little
later on..

“The sustainable food
value chain” by Food
and Agriculture
Organization of the UN
- Heavy economic focus for
self sufficiency and
resilience
- Disaster management fits
into the top right-hand
corner of the model
- Bad economic system with
food = less food security
capability
http://www.fao.org/sustainable-food-value-chains/what-is-
it/en/

“The food value
chain” by Delloite
- The food value chain is the network of
stakeholders involved in growing,
processing, and selling the food that
consumers eat—from farm to table
- This includes (1) the producers that
research, grow, and trade food
commodities, such as corn and cattle;
- (2) the processors, both primary and value
added, that process, manufacture, and
market food products, such as flour and
bread;
- (3) the distributors, including wholesalers
and retailers, that market and sell food;
- (4) the consumers that shop, purchase, and
consume food; as well as
- (5) governments, non-governmental
organizations (NGOs), and regulators that
monitor and regulate the entire food value
chain from producer to consumer.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ie/Documen
ts/ConsumerBusiness/2015-Deloitte-Ireland-
Food_Value_Chain.pdf

Determining the state
of Food security
The big picture
• - Roughly one third of the food produced
in the world for human consumption
every year — approximately 1.3 billion
tonnes — gets lost or wasted.
• Total per capita food production for
human consumption is about 900 kg a
year in rich countries, almost twice the
460 kg a year produced in the poorest
regions.
• In developing countries 40% of losses
occur at post-harvest and processing
levels while in industrialized countries
more than 40% of losses happen at retail
and consumer levels.
• This means that whether you’re a strong
or weak state its all about gross amount
of production to balance out these
dynamics of food production and
dissemination

1.3 BillionTonnes of Food Lost
1 Elephant = 6Tones
6 into 1.3 Billion = 216,666,666.667 Elephants
Total current population of Elephants is 400,000….
1 Elephant is roughly 6.5m long
216,666,666.667 million elephants are
140, 8333 km long (standing trunk to
tail)
But its only
384,400 km to moon

If the average person eats
2,500 calories a day and the
average lifespan is 69 years,
then they’ll consume
62,962,500 calories
Or
292,848 pieces of original
recipe chicken

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-
10-08/food-waste-value-
australia/4993930

Is loosing so much food
responsible for food
insecurity?
The state of food security and nutrition in
the world 2018
• 151 million Children are stunted.
• 1.9 billion adults are overweight
• New evidence continues to signal a rise
in world hunger and a reversal of trends
after a prolonged decline. In 2017 the
number of undernourished people is
estimated to have increased to 821
million – around one out of every nine
people in the world.
• In addition to conflict, climate variability
and extremes are among the key drivers
behind the recent uptick in global hunger
and one of the leading causes of severe
food crises.The cumulative effect of
changes in climate is undermining all
dimensions of food security – food
availability, access, utilization and
stability.

“THE NEED
Worldwide, more than 1,700 genebanks hold
collections of food crops for safekeeping,
yet many of these are vulnerable, exposed
not only to natural catastrophes and war,
but also to avoidable disasters, such as lack
of funding or poor management. Something
as mundane as a poorly functioning freezer
can ruin an entire collection. And the loss of
a crop variety is as irreversible as the
extinction of a dinosaur, animal or any form
of life.”
https://www.croptrust.org/our-work/svalbard-global-seed-
vault/

• Around 124 million people in 51 countries face Crisis
food insecurity or worse (equivalent of IPC/CH Phase 3 or
above). They require urgent humanitarian action to save
lives, protect livelihoods, and reduce hunger and
malnutrition.
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-report-food-crises-
2018

Keep in mind what food you’ll give at what stage of
response

http://fews.net/IPC

https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2015/10/12/historic-
famines-and-episodes-of-mass-intentional-starvation/
Lets take a look:

https://ourworldindata.org/famines

Defence force and
rations
• From the now
declassified FOI request
• Mission adaptable
• Health and hygiene
• Shelf life
• Convivence
• Nutrition
• Packaging

Key findings Defence is unable to provide information on the
total cost of ration provisioning in the ADF. However, the
ANAO estimates the cost to amount to about $100 million per
annum. But this would rise of today of course – how does this
compare to our foreign aid donation?
Rations vs foreign aid
https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/Documents/development-cooperation-fact-sheet-agriculture.pdf

https://actforpeace.rationchallenge.org.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/03/Ration-challenge-nutrition-analysis.pdf

Australia & Refugees
It’s complicated.
• https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/high-risk-and-inflated-australia-s-contract-for-food-on-manus-island-20190313-p513rn.html
• https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/30/up-to-100-asylum-seekers-on-manus-island-struck-by-food-poisoning
• http://www.refugeeaction.org.au/?p=7543

Australia &
Refugees
It’s
complicated.
• http://www.refugeeaction.org.au/?p=7543

Back to supply chains
A useful description of supply chains is
that they:
comprise flows of materials, goods and
information (including money), which pass
within and between organisations, linked
by a range of tangible and intangible
facilitators, including relationships
processes, activities and integrated
(information) systems.
In practice, they are also linked by physical
transport and distribution networks and
national/international communications
and transport infrastructures (Peck
2006a:128).
Food supply chain refers to the steps taken
to meet the demand for food
consumption in Australia.

Just one example of the supply chain.There are several depending on what commodity
you observe. Also, this is a high level overview only

Food
distribution
Australia
http://www.agriculture.gov.au/Sit
eCollectionDocuments/ag-
food/food/national-food-
plan/submissions-
received/foodmap-an-analysis-of-
the-australian-food-supply-chain-
30-july.pdf

Lets look at the supply chain on a good day. A high level overview for how food would
circulate in Australia or in another country.

You can
imagine this
simple graph
will get far
more
complicate for
a disaster
management
setting in a
foreign country

But this is mostly demands for future exports to sustain the world
Historically we produce far more than we consume
domestically. We sell around 65% of farm
production overseas, making Australia a leading food-
exporting nation. We therefore contribute to the food
security not just of Australia, but of many other nations.
https://theconversation.com/how-many-people-can-australia-feed-76460

So how does it all work? A
broad overview to keep
note of.
Legislation & Ethics
The Actual Food Supply
chain & economic
exchange
(production and so on)
Actors: Foodbanks,
retailers, military,
volunteers, the hungry..

Food security in remote
Australia
Outback Stores to the Senate (Circa 2015)
OfAustralia’s population, 90,000 to 110,000
of its most disadvantaged people live in
1200 communities in remote or very remote
areas.
This is our target audience but many live in
such small communities that it is not
feasible to set up stores in all of them.
So we try to reach the largest number of
people with the funds we have.This means
many small communities still have no food
security. Government faces the policy
dilemma of how to meet the obligation of
providing food security to the 20,000 or so
people who live in more than 1000 of the
smallest remote communities while
ensuring the greatest return on government
expenditure in remote regions.

Fast Facts in Australia
This is the average spend.Are you above
average?
• Estimates vary, but approximately 5-
6% of Australians report that they
sometimes run out of food and are
unable to buy more – that’s 1.5
million people.
• “It comes as a shock to many people,
that in a rich nation where food can
seem so plentiful, there are families
who you wouldn’t expect to be
struggling, who suffer stress and
anxiety in order to put food on the
table,”Australian Right to Food
Coalition and UNSWCanberra
researcher Dr Luke Craven said.
https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/managing-your-
money/budgeting/australian-spending-habits

“In a disaster we look at what the community needs.
During Black Saturday, there was a high need for water,
so we connected with Coca Cola, one of our partners, to
get 48 pallets of water delivered to relief centres, on the
front line and for people to use,’’ he said.
“There were also a number of single parents that didn’t
have access to formula for their children so we worked
with Nestle to get formula to those families in need. “We
have a logistics fleet fitted with refrigerators and freezers
so we can deliver quickly and deliver whole of kitchen
requirements.’’
Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley
said Foodbank was integral to Victoria’s emergency
management system, connecting communities,
government, agencies and business together.
Black Saturday
4,500 km² affected
February 2009

Townsville Floods 2019
- One years worth of rain
- Coles and Woolworths, emergency services and ADF
respond
“We have 30 contingency containers carrying essential lines
such as water, long life milk, baby formula, beans, noodles and
toilet paper, which we’re drawing on to increase the stock in
ourTownsville stores now,” saidTina Anandji, Woolworths
Northern Queensland Operations Manager.
Woolworth has already sent two charter planes to carry more
than 40 tonnes of fresh food and essential items into Cairns,
with more to follow in the days ahead. A second barge with
300 tonnes of fresh food and groceries will arrive in Cairns on
Friday.

Australian lessons
learned
The Queensland floods during December
2010 to January 2011 were severe and
widespread.The town of Rockhampton,
with a population around 75 000, was cut
off by road, rail and air for two weeks; the
state capital, Brisbane, came within a day
of running out of bread for its population;
other towns and cities on the coast and
inland were affected by floods, with
around 100 large retail food stores and
many more smaller food outlets
inundated.

Australian lessons
learned
A number of food industry stakeholders
interviewed expressed disappointment at
what they saw as lack of capability on the
part of the ADF to assist with the food
logistics task beyond immediate emergency
food drops by helicopter.
There is an apparent mismatch between
industry expectations (among some businesses)
and actual capacity. The ADF is not, in today’s
defence planning environment, equipped to
undertake large food logistics tasks, and itself
relies on the private market for supply to its
own messes and operational needs. (Keep in
mind this is 2012 when this statement was made)

Confusion and
unrealistic expectations
The review found some evidence of unrealistic
expectations from the food industry, government officials
and the community relating to disaster response. These
included:
 an over-estimation of the capacity of the ADF to move
large quantities of food
 an assumption on the part of some agencies that they
would be able simply to obtain food from local
businesses, without thought of payment
a lack of appreciation, in communities outside disaster-
affected areas, that road flooding also disrupts deliveries to
unaffected areas

Production
The world and Australia

Over the last century, the global population has
quadrupled. In 1915, there were 1.8 billion people in the
world. Today, according to the most recent estimate by the
UN, there are 7.3 billion people — and we may reach 9.7
billion by 2050. This growth, along with rising incomes in
developing countries (which cause dietary changes such
as eating more protein and meat) are driving up global
food demand.
Food demand is expected to increase anywhere between 59%
to 98% by 2050.This will shape agricultural markets in ways we
have not seen before. Farmers worldwide will need to increase
crop production, either by increasing the amount of
agricultural land to grow crops or by enhancing productivity on
existing agricultural lands through fertilizer and irrigation and
adopting new methods like precision farming.
https://hbr.org/2016/04/global-demand-for-food-is-rising-can-
we-meet-it
Don’t forget there’s eating to stay alive and eating in the modern
sense – Population growth a stressor

Grain as a measure of
food security Globally!
“Although global stocks are expected to
hit an all-time high of 273 million tonnes
at the start of the 2018/19 grain
marketing season, according to U.S.
Department of Agriculture estimates, the
problem is nearly half of it is in China,
which is not likely to release any onto
global markets.”
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/worldfood/images/home-graph_4_jun.jpg
Recognizing these realities, vulnerable countries are building
strategic reserves.The associated expense and negative
incentive effects can be controlled if reserves have
quantitative targets related to consumption needs of the most
vulnerable, with distribution to the latter only in severe
emergencies. More ambitious plans to manipulate world prices
via buffer stocks or naked short speculation have been
proposed, to keep prices consistent with fundamentals. Past
interventions of either kind have been expensive, ineffective,
and generally short-lived. Further, there is no significant
evidence that prices do not reflect fundamentals, including
export market access.
From: International grain reserves and other instruments to
address volatility in grain markets
Food Security Safety:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4240735/

https://waterfootprint.org/media/downloads/Hoekstra-2008-
WaterfootprintFood.pdf

Water security
Global Institute for Water Security
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVv9r6t03PQ
Water Wars
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/where-the-water-wars-of-the-future-will-be-fought/85 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh

Since 2010, there
have been 263
notable conflicts over
water. Many have
occurred in drought-
stricken areas in the
Middle East and
Northern Africa
however, the violence
is not isolated to
these geographic
areas.
https://blogs.worldbank.org/water/water-and-war-turbulent-
dynamics-between-water-and-fragility-conflict-and-violence

• http://www.worldwater.org/conflict/map/ & https://www.unwater.org/publications/water-security-infographic/87 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh

Water supply
Even in Darwin, despite monsoonal rains
we are affected by growing population
and over use. However, this is limited to
Water underground which historically
would have been left unadulterated.

•Producing 1 kilo of rice, for example, requires about 3,500 litres of water, 1 kilo of beef some 15,000 litres, and a
cup of coffee about 140 litres. This dietary shift is the greatest to impact on water consumption over the past
30 years.
•In 2008, the surge of food prices has driven 110 million people into poverty and added 44 million more to the
undernourished. 925 million people go hungry because they cannot afford to pay for it. In developing countries,
rising food prices form a major threat to food security, particularly because people spend 50-80% of their income
on food.
•In developing countries, 43 percent of the farmers are women. Female farmers are considered as efficient as
men; however, they do not perform as well because they do not have access to the same inputs, services and
productive resources – including water.
•The way that water is managed in agriculture has caused wide-scale changes in ecosystems and undermined
the provision of a wide range of ecosystem services. The external cost of the damage to people and
ecosystems, and clean-up processes, from the agricultural sector is significant. In the United States of America, for
instance, the estimated cost is US$9–20 billion per year.
•Agriculture contributes to climate change through its share of greenhouse gases emissions, which in turn affect the
planet’s water cycle, adding another layer of uncertainties and risks to food production. It is predicted that
South Asia and Southern Africa will be the most vulnerable regions to climate change-related food shortages by
2030.
Sources:
•Information brief on Water and Agriculture in the Green Economy. UNW-DPAC, 2011.
•The environmental food crisis: The environment's role in averting future food crises. UNEP, 2009.
•United Nations World Water Development Report 4. UNESCO, UN-Water, WWAP. March 2012.
•World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Highlights. UNDESA. 2009.
•World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 – Interim Report – Prospects for Food, Nutrition, Agriculture and Major Commodity Groups. FAO. 2006.

Leadership
frameworks
To help in your career

Great book. A must
read and at CDU library.
Leadership section pros:
- Emphasis on
governance
- High level
- Talks about things
that would ordinarily
be in the background
of a leaders “fabric”
- Cons
- A little too high
level
- Seems written
for boffins

So how can we improve
on this?
We are going to draw
upon two well regarded
frameworks to come up
with something more
specific for disaster
management as a novel
approach to thinking
about response.
We do this because it
isn’t cookie-cutter and
allows room for you to
take what is presented
here and reflect on your
own actions or what
you may do in the
future.

Much of this is self
explanatory which is
good.
Use the activities above in the contexts to
the right.
This helps you understand the timeline and
the backdrop for your disaster management
work. In some cases this is the high level
that goes into planning disaster
management responses.

A bit about the Cynefin
framework
This is a less instructional
framework but it allows us to
internalize key activities in
different contexts in a vacuum
but also interdependently.

A bit about the Cynefin
framework
There’s many different takes on this
framework depending on who is using it. Be
bold and make it your own. Use it to know
what to do and use it to explain.
Sense = Intuite the situation as informed by
what you know
Probe = Start a process to see how things
respond
Act = Start a process order the situation
Respond = Execute your process to achieve
the outcome state based on influence of prior
actions.

The order of the steps you would take when using this framework per context

How a good leader will combine the two in disaster management
Horizon
Scanning
“My
understanding
of the big
picture” informs
my actions in…
A complex situation
Probe – Sense - Respond
A chaotic situation
Act - Sense - Respond
Obvious
Sense – Categorize - Respond
A complicated situation
Sense – Analyze - Respond
A Leader but not in charge
primarily will deal with one of
these domains but that will have
flow on effects across all.

Horizon
Scanning
“My
understanding
of the big
picture” informs
my actions in…
A complex situation
A chaotic situation
Obvious
A leader in charge will coordinate
people acting in each domain
accommodating for the flow on
effect

Horizon
Scanning
“My
understanding
of the big
picture” informs
my actions in…
A complex situation
A chaotic situation
Obvious
A situation may change from one
to the other and there may be
situations within each domain as
classified by a higher level planner

A complex situation
100 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
Horizon
Scanning
“My
understanding
of the big
picture” informs
my actions in…
A chaotic situation (I am first
responder in an disaster)
Obvious (I will utilize best SoP)
A complicated situation (I have
acted and can see patterns to
bring more order)

A complex situation
101 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
Horizon
Scanning
“My
understanding
of the big
picture” informs
my actions in…
A chaotic situation (Outback
Stores in the first 5 years after
the law was enacted)
Obvious (Outback Stores today
as it has simplified the
situation)
(Outback stores after the
second law enacted)
Food security journey
over 10 years explained
via Horizon scanning and
Cynefin framework.

Extra reading
Planning and execution of a food operation

103 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
https://www.cis.org.au/app/uploads/2015/07/ia122.pdf
The Center for
Independent Studies
Review of Outback
Stores

104 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
https://ourworldindata.org/food-per-person
Our World in Data
“Calories per person”

Considerations
3.12. Logistics (Complex logistics, an invitation to
FSC chain disruptions)
The procurement, maintenance, distribution,
transport and management of goods and services are
often governed by a legal framework.
Food products flow from the point of origin to the
point of consumption, but legal laws such as border
custom procedures and travel permits (e.g.Visa) can
seriously delay the movement of either food supplies
or aid workers. During the recent Nepal earthquake,
flights carrying relief items were prevented to land
because some basic items such as tools for road repair
were not included in the list of goods for humanitarian
aid (OCHA, 2015).Trade barriers such as high
international trade tariff and quotas may also hinder
the delivery of food (i.e., non-perishables and staple
or grain products) in times of natural disasters. In such
cases, trade policies should be tailored to provide
incentives for export and import of food products and
ease of travel for authorised aid workers across
borders.
106 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh

107 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKP26nU3i4M
Video: Humanitarian Supply
Chains: Emergency Relief, Global
Health, and Food Security

108 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/

109 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf

110 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
https://files-em.em.vic.gov.au/public/EMV-web/EMMV-Part-4.pdf

111 9/7/2019 Gary Leigh
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/heal/Publications/food-security.pdf

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