El 12 de mayo de 2017 celebramos en la Fundación Ramó Areces una jornada con IS Global y Unitaid sobre enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, como la malaria, entre otras.

1. How modeling can inform
approaches to maximize impact
across vector
borne diseases
Ellie Sherrard-Smith e.sherrard-smith@imperial.ac.uk
Tom Churcher
Malaria Modelling Group
Imperial College London
FUNDED BY: IVCC

2. Prevalence in 2 to 10 year
olds (2015)
Prevalence in 2 to 10 yrs:
Standard LLIN coverage
80% coverage pyrethroid IRS
No resistance
Prevalence in 2 to 10 yrs:
Standard LLIN coverage
80% coverage pyrethroid IRS
With 50% pyrethroid resistance
(Malaria Atlas Project prevalence
estimates)
Using a mathematical model published in Griffin et al. (2010) PLoS Med;
Griffin et al. (2014) Nat Comms; Winskill et al. (2017)
2015 2020 2020
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
50% pyrethroid bioassay mortality
Example: Malaria

3. New technology: PBO-nets
MosquitomortalityinPBO-netsduring
experimentalhuttrial(%)
Mosquito mortality in non-PBO-nets during
hut trial (%)
Results of all published
experimental hut trials
investigating PBO LLINs
MosquitomortalityforPBO+pyrethroid
duringWHO(orCDC)bioassaytests(%)
Mosquito mortality for pyrethroid during WHO
(or CDC) bioassay tests (%)
Churcher et al. (2016) eLife
red = An. gambiae s.l.
blue = An. funestus

4. New technology: PBO-nets
Predicted Prevalence in 2 to 10 yrs at current LLIN
and IRS coverage levels (matching 2015 coverage)
with pyrethroid resistance
(50% of mosquitos survive bioassay)
Using standard non-PBO nets
Predicted Prevalence in 2 to 10 yrs at current LLIN
and IRS coverage levels (matching 2015 coverage)
with pyrethroid resistance
(50% of mosquitos survive bioassay)
Implementing PBO-nets
Public health impact is location specific.
Particularly depends on levels of LLIN coverage and
species of mosquitos present
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2020
Preliminary work
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2020

5. Actellic on An. funestus (dashed line)
Actellic on An. gambiae (solid line)
Pyrethroid
Bendiocarb
New technology: Long-lasting IRS
Preliminary work
Impact of switching to a longer-lasting IRS depends on
Seasonality (increased protection with a longer transmission season)
IRS coverage levels (higher coverage gives improved protection)
Prevalence in 2 to 10 yrs: current LLIN
coverage,
80% coverage pyrethroid IRS
with 50% pyrethroid resistance
(50% of mosquitos survive bioassay)
2020
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2020
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Prevalence in 2 to 10 yrs: current LLIN
coverage,
80% coverage Actellic IRS
with 50% pyrethroid resistance
(50% of mosquitos survive bioassay)

6. How modeling can inform
approaches to maximize impact
across vector
borne diseases
Ellie Sherrard-Smith e.sherrard-smith@imperial.ac.uk
Tom Churcher
Malaria Modelling Group
Imperial College London