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  1. 1. The openmalaria simulator (Malaria@home) Content from: Biostatistics and Epidemiology Group Swiss Tropical Institute, Switzerland Molecular and Biochemical Parasitology Group Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, UK
  2. 2. openmalaria epidemiological modelling project <ul><li>“ To provide predictions of likely health impacts and cost effectiveness of different strategies for controlling Plasmodium falciparum malaria across the range of transmission intensities found in countries with endemic malaria” </li></ul><ul><li>To understand history: what processes that shaped the evolution of the disease? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Microsimulation T=1 T=2 T=3 T=4 ID 1 dead ID 4 ID 2 treat ID 3 new infection increasing immunity
  4. 4. <ul><li>Discrete time stochastic individual-based simulations (currently 5 day time step) </li></ul><ul><li>Periodic forcing to capture effects of seasonality </li></ul><ul><li>Models of natural history with modular components </li></ul><ul><li>Includes dynamics of transmission, acquired immunity & human demography </li></ul><ul><li>Calibrated by formal fitting to data from field studies </li></ul><ul><li>Include effects of case management and other concomitant interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts of different intervention strategies compared over 20 year time horizons </li></ul><ul><li>Case management </li></ul><ul><li>Vaccines </li></ul><ul><li>IPT (p, c, i) </li></ul><ul><li>ITNs </li></ul><ul><li>IRS </li></ul><ul><li>Larval control (source reduction or larviciding) </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated control (combinations) </li></ul>APPROACH INTERVENTIONS Existing dynamic model platform
  5. 5. Models/Modules <ul><li>Vaccination </li></ul><ul><li>Morbidity/Mortality </li></ul><ul><li>Drug action </li></ul><ul><li>Resistance </li></ul><ul><li>Within-host </li></ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul><ul><li>Clinical action - case management </li></ul><ul><li>Seasonality </li></ul><ul><li>Entomology </li></ul><ul><li>Genetics/Genomics </li></ul>
  6. 6. User base <ul><li>Currently the simulator is difficult to use by non-techy geeks </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia Tech developing easy to use interfaces allowing a much wider user base </li></ul>
  7. 7. What can you ask? <ul><li>Is this intervention (ITN, IRS, drug deployment) economically feasible? </li></ul><ul><li>What would be the impact of increased drug dosage on mortality? </li></ul><ul><li>Would a certain vaccine be effective? </li></ul><ul><li>How would a certain drug deployment policy influence the spread of drug resistance? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the impact of transmission on a certain intervention? </li></ul><ul><li>Create your own idea... </li></ul>
  8. 8. Of interest to BOSC <ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>C++ </li></ul><ul><li>GPL </li></ul><ul><li>Running </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BOINC based ( [email_address] ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stand-alone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grid-based under development at Vtech </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Funding: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation </li></ul></ul>