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It’s TIME: Collaborating towards a
national energy vision
Frank Tudor
Australia continues to bounce between policy
paralysis and utopian visions of the future
vs
Separating hype from reality
The Story of
2018?
Or
Fake News?
Competition in the age of the platform giants
1890 20502017 Time
Boring Exciting Boring
Bringing energy back to boring
TODAY
Universal energy for all
Phases
Distributed Energy
Resources
Centralised Generation
Hub and Spoke
We already know what the future electricity
system could look like
Source: Electricity Networks Australia
But there are major challenges to overcome
Creating Regulatory Flexibility
Solving
Technical
Challenges at
Efficient Cost
Symmetrically pricing
services
Understanding and
Driving
Customer
Behaviour
2
3
4
1
Orchestrating Balance in the Universe
FIRM DISPATCHABLE ENERGYINTERMITTENT ENERGY
AT EVERY NODE AT EVERY MOMENT
Contradictory messages are sent to consumers
on the affordability of energy
Levelised cost of energy1 (US$/MWh)
Note: 1 LCOE = sum of costs over lifetime / sum of electrical energy produced over lifetime
Cost of renewables continues to decline and provide an opportunity
to reduce energy cost if integrated appropriately in the network…
… But retail energy cost have never been so high,
hurting competitiveness of energy intensive industries
0
50
100
150
200
250
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
QLD SA
Average daily price in the NEM ($/MWh)
Predicting irrationality. Understanding customers
who couldn’t care less about you
Source: Adapted from the research of Dr Karen Stenner (CSIRO)
What even is customer
‘engagement’?
The customer of the future
= the customer of today
Customer feedback is
from 5-10% of interested
(opinionated) people
Customers don’t care
about energy
(until the bill comes)
Customers don’t want
information – they want
simplicity
Are
preferences
changing?
What does
the other
95% want?
How is
trust
built?
1.
2.
3.
4.5.
How can
we make
it easy?
What’s
the first
step?
Regulations are like children – if you don’t give
them attention they are going to make you suffer
• Regulations are the common scape-goat:
lack of incentives, lack of flexibility, slow moving
• How do you ‘trial’ new regulatory
frameworks?
• We need a testing ground for new
incentives, rules and regulations:
as with technology, customer and business
models!
Future transformation of the NEM predicts a
changing but still vital role for centralised networks
ENA CSIRO Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap
Constrained by: complex regulatory barriers, competing interests across the value chain, policy uncertainty
2050 2050
Sharing insights from West to East
Observations from the West:
• The east-coast energy market
is combative and anti-
collaborative
• Network business vs Retailers
vs Generators vs Regulators
• Policy makers frustrate
everyone
• Meanwhile customers: at best
– overloaded with information;
at worst - left in the dark
Image Credit: Sydney Morning Herald
How do you manage this risk?
Regional WA is leading the transition to off-grid
and DER microgrids
Horizon Power Roadmap
Enabled by: minimal regulatory barriers, vertical integration, advanced meters
98%
2016
Centralised DER Standalone
65%
29%
6%
2025
Centralised DER Standalone
35%
53%
12%
2050
Centralised DER Standalone
WA – Australia’s RD&D sandbox?
Onslow 50% DER
Microgrid
Broome Microgrid
(Landcorp)
Carnarvon 2 MWh battery
Carnarvon PV Project
(ARENA)
Port Hedland Power
Plan - Pricing Trial
Exmouth SPS
Microgrid Regulatory Trial
Carnarvon LV Microgrid
Trial
Rottnest Multi-Utility
Physical separation –
independent from system security
and gas price issues
1
Regulatory separation –
Potential for light-handed / unique &
innovative frameworks and rules
Government owned utilities –
With vertical integration and
consideration of whole value stack
Urgency to solve on small-scale –
WA has started testing across
multiple remote & fringe of grid towns
Why Western Australia?
2
3
4
Kununurra Island
System Design
R&D underway:
(1) Isolated Microgrids
(2) Fringe of Grid
(3) South-West System
Hopetoun + Esperance
SPS
It’s TIME – WA as Australia’s test pilot
“WA outside NEM can be island of
competitive energy and energy-intensive
investment”
“Its policy independence from the
National Electricity Market allows it to
avoid legacy problems of high costs and
unreliability in other states.“
“Western Australia can play a vital role
contributing to the national and global
transition to a zero carbon energy future"
Professor Ross Garnaut AC –
November 2017
“the advantage is for us in WA…“
“We’ve also got a lot more flexibility here”
Audrey Zibelman –
AEMO - August 2017
“Also have a world champion at that here
in WA, Horizon, who are providing resilient
mini grids to remote communities. The
knowledge they have on how to do that is
probably the best in the world, how to
deliver renewables.”
Micael Liebreich –
Founder BNEF – Dec 2016
WA is getting on with it:
Learning from experiments - past, present & future
2
3
4
1
• Design Blueprints
• Stand-alone power systems
• Increasing
distributed energy
targets
• MyPower roll-out
Creating Regulatory Flexibility
Solving Technical
Challenges at Efficient Cost
Symmetrically pricing services
Understanding and Driving
Customer Behaviour
Design blueprints:
Do. Or do not. There is no try.
Multi-dimension segmentation to cluster
towns
Priority areas for innovation and
commercialisation
Strategic partnerships with technology
vendors and applied research institutes
a
b
c
MyPower:
Introducing the future of electricity pricing
Advantages of MyPower:
• gives customers choice and control
• reduces the subsidy paid by the State
• sends the right signals to reduce peak usage is a
more equitable structure
It’s stressful playing host – but the party has
already started in WA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Present Day
DER Vision - Towards 100%
Unmanaged Hosting
Capacity
Managed Hosting Capacity
Managed (Class I Feed in
Management)
Network Voltage &
Frequency Control
Extended Ramp Rate
Installations
Diesel Off Technology
VPPs & Energy Storage
Coordination
Fully Dispatchable
Installations
Dispatch & Network
Optimisation
Each system in WA has been designed for
economic efficiency, system security, and
maximising penetration of renewables
NEG in practice?
Stand-alone power systems show that everyone
(customers, utilities, mother-nature) can win
(batteries are included)
Key takeaways
• The energy landscape is changing – presenting challenges
across technical, pricing, customer and regulatory spheres
• Electricity systems of the future will require the
orchestration of high penetrations of distributed renewables
to achieve the energy trifecta
• Strategic partnerships will be vital, with open, collaborative
and agile environments needed to drive innovative solutions
• WA is well-placed to assist the country build expertise and
capability to address the pressing energy issues – we are
already doing it!
Thank You

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Collaborating towards a national energy vision

  • 1. It’s TIME: Collaborating towards a national energy vision Frank Tudor
  • 2. Australia continues to bounce between policy paralysis and utopian visions of the future vs
  • 3. Separating hype from reality The Story of 2018? Or Fake News?
  • 4. Competition in the age of the platform giants
  • 5. 1890 20502017 Time Boring Exciting Boring Bringing energy back to boring TODAY Universal energy for all Phases Distributed Energy Resources Centralised Generation Hub and Spoke
  • 6. We already know what the future electricity system could look like Source: Electricity Networks Australia
  • 7. But there are major challenges to overcome Creating Regulatory Flexibility Solving Technical Challenges at Efficient Cost Symmetrically pricing services Understanding and Driving Customer Behaviour 2 3 4 1
  • 8. Orchestrating Balance in the Universe FIRM DISPATCHABLE ENERGYINTERMITTENT ENERGY AT EVERY NODE AT EVERY MOMENT
  • 9. Contradictory messages are sent to consumers on the affordability of energy Levelised cost of energy1 (US$/MWh) Note: 1 LCOE = sum of costs over lifetime / sum of electrical energy produced over lifetime Cost of renewables continues to decline and provide an opportunity to reduce energy cost if integrated appropriately in the network… … But retail energy cost have never been so high, hurting competitiveness of energy intensive industries 0 50 100 150 200 250 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 QLD SA Average daily price in the NEM ($/MWh)
  • 10. Predicting irrationality. Understanding customers who couldn’t care less about you Source: Adapted from the research of Dr Karen Stenner (CSIRO) What even is customer ‘engagement’? The customer of the future = the customer of today Customer feedback is from 5-10% of interested (opinionated) people Customers don’t care about energy (until the bill comes) Customers don’t want information – they want simplicity Are preferences changing? What does the other 95% want? How is trust built? 1. 2. 3. 4.5. How can we make it easy? What’s the first step?
  • 11. Regulations are like children – if you don’t give them attention they are going to make you suffer • Regulations are the common scape-goat: lack of incentives, lack of flexibility, slow moving • How do you ‘trial’ new regulatory frameworks? • We need a testing ground for new incentives, rules and regulations: as with technology, customer and business models!
  • 12. Future transformation of the NEM predicts a changing but still vital role for centralised networks ENA CSIRO Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap Constrained by: complex regulatory barriers, competing interests across the value chain, policy uncertainty 2050 2050
  • 13. Sharing insights from West to East Observations from the West: • The east-coast energy market is combative and anti- collaborative • Network business vs Retailers vs Generators vs Regulators • Policy makers frustrate everyone • Meanwhile customers: at best – overloaded with information; at worst - left in the dark Image Credit: Sydney Morning Herald How do you manage this risk?
  • 14. Regional WA is leading the transition to off-grid and DER microgrids Horizon Power Roadmap Enabled by: minimal regulatory barriers, vertical integration, advanced meters 98% 2016 Centralised DER Standalone 65% 29% 6% 2025 Centralised DER Standalone 35% 53% 12% 2050 Centralised DER Standalone
  • 15. WA – Australia’s RD&D sandbox? Onslow 50% DER Microgrid Broome Microgrid (Landcorp) Carnarvon 2 MWh battery Carnarvon PV Project (ARENA) Port Hedland Power Plan - Pricing Trial Exmouth SPS Microgrid Regulatory Trial Carnarvon LV Microgrid Trial Rottnest Multi-Utility Physical separation – independent from system security and gas price issues 1 Regulatory separation – Potential for light-handed / unique & innovative frameworks and rules Government owned utilities – With vertical integration and consideration of whole value stack Urgency to solve on small-scale – WA has started testing across multiple remote & fringe of grid towns Why Western Australia? 2 3 4 Kununurra Island System Design R&D underway: (1) Isolated Microgrids (2) Fringe of Grid (3) South-West System Hopetoun + Esperance SPS
  • 16. It’s TIME – WA as Australia’s test pilot “WA outside NEM can be island of competitive energy and energy-intensive investment” “Its policy independence from the National Electricity Market allows it to avoid legacy problems of high costs and unreliability in other states.“ “Western Australia can play a vital role contributing to the national and global transition to a zero carbon energy future" Professor Ross Garnaut AC – November 2017 “the advantage is for us in WA…“ “We’ve also got a lot more flexibility here” Audrey Zibelman – AEMO - August 2017 “Also have a world champion at that here in WA, Horizon, who are providing resilient mini grids to remote communities. The knowledge they have on how to do that is probably the best in the world, how to deliver renewables.” Micael Liebreich – Founder BNEF – Dec 2016
  • 17. WA is getting on with it: Learning from experiments - past, present & future 2 3 4 1 • Design Blueprints • Stand-alone power systems • Increasing distributed energy targets • MyPower roll-out Creating Regulatory Flexibility Solving Technical Challenges at Efficient Cost Symmetrically pricing services Understanding and Driving Customer Behaviour
  • 18. Design blueprints: Do. Or do not. There is no try. Multi-dimension segmentation to cluster towns Priority areas for innovation and commercialisation Strategic partnerships with technology vendors and applied research institutes a b c
  • 19. MyPower: Introducing the future of electricity pricing Advantages of MyPower: • gives customers choice and control • reduces the subsidy paid by the State • sends the right signals to reduce peak usage is a more equitable structure
  • 20. It’s stressful playing host – but the party has already started in WA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Present Day DER Vision - Towards 100% Unmanaged Hosting Capacity Managed Hosting Capacity Managed (Class I Feed in Management) Network Voltage & Frequency Control Extended Ramp Rate Installations Diesel Off Technology VPPs & Energy Storage Coordination Fully Dispatchable Installations Dispatch & Network Optimisation Each system in WA has been designed for economic efficiency, system security, and maximising penetration of renewables NEG in practice?
  • 21. Stand-alone power systems show that everyone (customers, utilities, mother-nature) can win (batteries are included)
  • 22. Key takeaways • The energy landscape is changing – presenting challenges across technical, pricing, customer and regulatory spheres • Electricity systems of the future will require the orchestration of high penetrations of distributed renewables to achieve the energy trifecta • Strategic partnerships will be vital, with open, collaborative and agile environments needed to drive innovative solutions • WA is well-placed to assist the country build expertise and capability to address the pressing energy issues – we are already doing it!