Role Of Climate Change In Flood-Driven Incision Of Swett Creek, Utah

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4. ESS 490 Frances Lin
Prof. Kate Huntington
ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN F L O O D - D R I V E N I N C I S I O N O F
S W E T T C R E E K , U TA H
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5. ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN F L O O D - D R I V E N I N C I S I O N O F
S W E T T C R E E K , U TA H
S W E T T
ESS 490 Frances Lin
Prof. Kate Huntington
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6. • site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010)
• Sweet Creek of.. drains into…
• It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges
• Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation…
• Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region?
• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
C A S E S T U D Y S W E T T C R E E K , H E N RY M O U N TA I N S , U TA H
Case

7. #HenryMtns
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#MtnsHillers
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10. #DrainageArea
#MtnsHillers
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15. • site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010)
• Sweet Creek of.. drains into…
• It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010)
• Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation…
• Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region?
• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N

16. • site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010)
• Sweet Creek of.. drains into…
• It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010)
• Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation…
• Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region?
• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N

17. • site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010)
• Sweet Creek of.. drains into…
• It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010)
• Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation…
• Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region?
• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N

18. • site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010)
• Sweet Creek of.. drains into…
• It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion
than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010)
• Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,
temperature, precipitation…
• Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on
landscape evolution in this region?
• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change
in incision pattern and rate
M O T I VAT I O N
• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs
… estimate changes in incision pattern and rate

19. !
MODERN !
climate
!
WARM

20. !
MODERN
!
WARM!
using RegCM
!
climate

21. !
using RegCM!
extracted hydrograph
!
MODERN
!
WARM!
climate

22. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O

23. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M

24. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

25. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
R e g i o n a l C l i m a t e
M o d e l

26. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
R e g i o n a l C l i m a t e
M o d e l _

27. ©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction
(IPCC, 2001)

28. ©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction
• now used in a wide range of
climate application
• paleoclimate
• anthropogenic climate change
(IPCC, 2001)

29. ©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction
• now used in a wide range of
climate application
• paleoclimate
• anthropogenic climate change
• data sets include
• climatic state
• regional physiographic features
(IPCC, 2001)

30. ©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction
• now used in a wide range of
climate application
• paleoclimate
• anthropogenic climate change
• data sets include
• climatic state
• regional physiographic features
• capable of describing climate***
feedback mechanisms
(IPCC, 2001)

31. ©CLM Community
R e g C M
• origniated from weather prediction
• now used in a wide range of
climate application
• paleoclimate
• anthropogenic climate change
• data sets include
• climatic state
• regional physiographic features
• capable of describing climate***
feedback mechanisms
• has begun to couple various other
models
(IPCC, 2001)

32. ©CLM Community
R e g C M
lithosphere
hydrosphere
biosphere
atmosphere

33. !
MODERN
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

34. S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)

35. S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM
heat flux
precipitation
ice albedo
temperature
©FrontierScientists @NASA

36. temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
©FrontierScientists @NASA
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM

37. temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
©FrontierScientists @NASA
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM

38. ??
temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
©FrontierScientists @NASA
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM

39. ??
temperature precipitation
heat flux ice albedo
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM
For complete list of RegCM parameters, please visit NASA’s Jet Propulsion
Laboratory at Caltech www.jpl.nasa.gov
©FrontierScientists @NASA

40. C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM
•Hydrographs (output)
• graph
• discharge vs. time
• next step…
©USGS

41. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM
•Hydrographs (output)
• graph
• discharge vs. time
• next step…
SAMPLE
©USGS

42. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM
•Hydrographs (output)
• graph
• discharge vs. time
• next step…
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
C l i m a t e R e - a n a l y s i s D a t a

43. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
S I M U L AT I O N S
• prescribe CO2 (input)
• RegCM
•Hydrographs (output)
• graph
• discharge vs. time C l i m a t e R e - a n a l y s i s D a t a
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
Validate the model

44. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Validated

45. !
MODERN
!
WARM
M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

46. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
Prescribe [CO2]

47. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
I P C C S P E C I A L R E P O RT
• Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Chage
• don’t need to know… mean
• pay attention… trends
Prescribe [CO2]
(IPCC, 2000)

48. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
Prescribe [CO2]
I P C C S P E C I A L R E P O RT
• Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Chage
• omit the details
• pay attention… trends
(IPCC, 2000)
GlobalTemperature(°C)
Year
E m i s s i o n
S c e n a r i o s

49. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
Prescribe [CO2]

50. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Prescribe [CO2]..

51. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Results

52. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Results
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )

53. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Results
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
incision pattern

54. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Results
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
incision pattern & rate

55. M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S
C O
M o d e r n C l i m a t e
R e g C M
H y d ro g r a p h ( o u t p u t )
Wa r m C l i m a t e
• A 1
• A 2
• B 1
• B 2
A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2
Results
J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )
incision pattern & rate
climate

56. Initial stage of warming, as ice
melts, snowmelt flood events
dominate the river discharge
pattern and cause rapid incision.
!
As warming proceeds and
precipitation increases, flash
flood events become dominant
and incision rate slows.
E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .

57. E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .
Initial stage of warming, as ice
melts, snowmelt flood events
dominate the river discharge
pattern and cause rapid incision.
!
As warming proceeds and
precipitation increases, flash
flood events become dominant
and incision rate slows.

58. Initial stage of warming, as ice
melts, snowmelt flood events
dominate the river discharge
pattern and cause rapid incision.
!
As warming proceeds and
precipitation increases, flash
flood events become dominant
and incision rate slows.
E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .
Impacts of
anthropogenic climate
change on incision of
Swett Creek

59. #GlobalWarming

60. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather

61. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise

62. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification

63. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction

64. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction
#FoodSecurity

65. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction
#FoodSecurity
#HabitatInundation

66. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction
#FoodSecurity
#HabitatInundation
#Deglaciation

67. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction
#FoodSecurity
#HabitatInundation
#EmissionsPolicy
#Deglaciation

68. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction
#FoodSecurity
#HabitatInundation
#EmissionsPolicy
#Deglaciation
#LandscapeChanges?

69. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction
#FoodSecurity
#HabitatInundation
#EmissionsPolicy
#Deglaciation
#LandscapeChanges?
#WaterResources

70. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#Extinction
#FoodSecurity
#HabitatInundation
#EmissionsPolicy
#Deglaciation
#LandscapeChanges?
#WaterResources

71. #GlobalWarming
#ExtremeWeather
#SeaLevelRise
#OceanAcidification
#FoodSecurity
#HabitatInundation
#EmissionsPolicy
#Deglaciation
#LandscapeChanges?
#WaterResources
#Extinction
?

72. !
2014

73. !
2024

74. !
2034

75. !
2044

76. !
2054

77. !
2064

78. !
2074

79. !
2084

80. !
2094 ?
Avatar (2009)

81. !
2094 ?
Black Mirror (2011 - )Her (2013)Children of Men (2006)

82. !
Q U E S T I O N ?
©MrWallpaper.com

83. !
Q U E S T I O N ?
©AnimalPictures123.org
#River

84. Work Cited
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
(2000). Summary for Policymaker Emission Scenarios: A
Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. IPCC.
!
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
(2001). Working Group I: The Scientific Basis. IPCC.
!
Johnson P.L., Whipple K. X., and Sklar L.S. (2010).
Contrasting bedrock incision from snowmelt and flash floods in
the Henry Mountains, Utah. Geological Society of America
Bulletin.
!
Credits
©TrekEarth ©Wikipedia ©Interactive Jungle ©Know The Lies
#GlobalWarming
#River
Frances Lin
Undergraduate student
Dept. of Earth and Space Sciences
yuchun90@uw.edu
©MrWallpaper.com
©AnimalPictures123.org