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Special report-09-jan-2019-epic-research
1. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
Global markets at a glance
The S&P 500 jumped to a three-week high on Tuesday, led
by Apple, Amazon, Facebook and industrial shares on bets
that the United States and China would strike a deal to end
their trade war.The three-day rally kicked off on Friday
following robust US jobs data and dovish comments on
interest rates by Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell has
lifted the S&P 500 by over 9 percent from 20-month lows
touched around Christmas.The Dow Jones Industrial
Average jumped 1.09 percent to end at 23,787.45 points,
while the S&P 500 gained 0.97 percent to 2,574.41. The
Nasdaq Composite added 1.08 percent to 6,897.00.Asian
shares inched up on Wednesday, supported by optimism
the United States and China can strike a trade deal to avoid
an all-out confrontation that will severely disrupt the global
economy.Japan's Nikkei rose 0.9 percent while MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained
0.3 percent. Wall Street's S&P 500 gained 0.97 percent on
Tuesday, extending its gains from 20-month lows touched
around Christmas to more than 9 percent.The United
States and China will continue trade talks in Beijing for an
unscheduled third day, US officials said on Tuesday amid
signs of progress on issues including purchases of US farm
and energy commodities and increased access to China’s
markets.
PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF
Indian benchmark indices started the week with a huge gap
up opening but were unable to sustain the same after the
markets witnessed a pullback in the second half of the
session.The NSE Nifty ended the day 44 points higher at
10,771 while Bank Nifty settled 109 higher at 27,304.
Among the sectoral indices, Nifty IT and Nifty Realty put up
a strong show and ended 1.1% and 1.2% higher,
respectively. Nifty IT also witnessed a long build up on the
day.The rally in the Asian markets on Monday followed the
sharp surge in US stocks on Friday after investors reacted
positively to the labor market report as well as comments
from the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in
dices performed as follow; Commodities[+14.3pts],
C o ns um pt i o n[+ 15 .3pt s ], P SE [+ 18 .05 pt s ], C P SE
[+8.1pts],Energy[+945ts],FMCG[+92.4pts],Auto
[+10.65pts],Pharma[-55.4pts],IT[+145.35pts],Metal[-
4.6pts],Realty[+3.15pts], Fin Serv sector[+73.2pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
DJI 23857 +0.48
S&P500 2574 +0.97
NASDAQ 6897 +1.08
FTSE100 6861 +0.74
NIKKEI 20204 +0.82
HANG SENG 25875 +0.15
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Sun Pharam 448.05 17.25 4
ICICI Bank 380.15 12.45 3.39
SBI 305.3 9 3.04
Yes Bank 192.35 5.2 2.78
Tata Motors 179.95 4.6 2.62
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Zee Entertain 451.65 -11.3 -2.44
UPL 752.2 -11.55 -1.51
Kotak Mahindra 1,228.90 -17.7 -1.42
NTPC 146.95 -1.65 -1.11
BPCL 351.95 -3.6 -1.01
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
ICICIBANK 367.7 -0.85 -0.22
IOLCP 176.45 1.4 0.73
KILITCH 190.85 -2 -0.91
MUTHOOTFIN 513.4 -0.55 -0.11
LIQUIDETF 1000 -0.01 0
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 10802 30.4 0.28
SENSEX 35980 130.77 0.36
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
HEXATRADEX 25.1 -1.2 -4.78
MIC 1.25 -0.05 -4
RAJRAYON 0.15 -0.05 -33.33
TREJHARA 46.5 -2.3 -4.95
ARROWTEX 21.5 -0.05 -0.23
2. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
REPCOHOME
Stock has given the breakout of the neckline of the double
bottom pattern on the daily chart with the good volumes
and closed near to days high. We recommend buying
above 430 for the target of 435 with the stop loss of 420
MACRO NEWS
US crude oil prices on Wednesday rose above $50 per
barrel for the first time in 2019 on hopes that
Washington and Beijing can resolve a trade dispute
that has triggered a global economic slowdown.US
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were
at $50.14 per barrel as at 0021, up 36 cents, or 0.7
percent from their last settlement.
Reserve Bank of India released guidelines on
tokenisation for various card transactions, including
from debit and credit cards. Tokenisation, which aims
at improving safety and security of the payment
system, refers to replacement of actual card details
with an unique alternate code called the 'token', which
shall be unique for a combination of card, token
requestor and identified device .
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday constituted a
high-level committee under Aadhaar architect Nandan
Nilekani to suggest measures to strengthen the safety
and security of digital payments in the country.
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. AJANTPHARM [FUTURE ]
After a week of the correction phase stock has shown good
strength on the daily chart and closed in green. It also closed
above the 200 EMA on the daily chart. We recommend
buying above 1192 for the target of 1200/1205 with the stop
loss of 1170.
2. BEML [FUTURE]
Stock is consolidating for a couple of weeks and performed
well today. We have seen a good recovery in the last couple
of hours in the trading session. it also closed above the 200
EMA on the daily chart. We recommend buying above 930
for the target of 935/942 with the stop loss of 920
3. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY CE 27,500 133.65 10,09,089 7,37,640
BANKNIFTY CE 27,400 191 7,30,572 3,22,480
BANKNIFTY CE 27,600 88.95 6,20,935 5,55,160
ICICIBANK CE 380 10.45 4,695 28,60,000
YESBANK CE 200 10.7 4,483 65,01,250
TATAELXSI CE 1,000 28 4,037 2,67,600
RELIANCE CE 1,120 25.9 4,031 11,68,000
ASHOKLEY CE 105 0.65 3,929 75,88,000
MARUTI CE 9,000 111.5 5,823 2,83,500MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY CE 27,500 133.65 10,09,089 7,37,640
BANKNIFTY CE 27,400 191 7,30,572 3,22,480
BANKNIFTY CE 27,600 88.95 6,20,935 5,55,160
ICICIBANK CE 380 10.45 4,695 28,60,000
YESBANK CE 200 10.7 4,483 65,01,250
TATAELXSI CE 1,000 28 4,037 2,67,600
RELIANCE CE 1,120 25.9 4,031 11,68,000
ASHOKLEY CE 105 0.65 3,929 75,88,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 27847 2083.55 34676 2501.58 390070 30773.43 -418.0318
INDEX OPTIONS 1218376 72373.17 1222612 72860.85 688892 52023.24 -487.6775
STOCK FUTURES 187040 11094.75 181833 10866.93 1349308 82461.39 227.8207
STOCK OPTIONS 51638 2978.23 51902 3005.46 114375 6604.90 -27.2333
-705.1219
SELL
STOCKS IN NEWS
Tata Steel: Total sales (provisional) in Q3FY19 fall to 6.77
million tonnes versus 7.36 million tonnes YoY.
Oriental Bank of Commerce: Bank sold 0.8425 percent
equity stake in NSDL e-Governance Infrastructure out of
3.125 percent equity stake
NIFTY FUTURE Nifty followed global market and started
with gap up but today PSU and Metal share made
pressure in market due to that whole day Nifty traded in
sideways and in last one hour it loosed almost fifty per
cent gains in intraday. On daily chart it created bearish
candle since Nifty forming Open Broadening pattern so
we it will be buy in decline around 10850 with stop loss o
10750 for the target of 10920/10970.
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 10869 10836 10784 10750 10699
BANKNIFTY 27785 27647 27404 27266 27024
4. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Malaysian palm oil futures rose nearly 2 percent on
Tuesday, hitting their highest in nearly three weeks, as
production rose more slowly than expected.The benchmark
palm oil contract for March delivery 1FCPOc3 on the Bursa
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.8 percent higher at
2,178 ringgit ($529.15) a tonne, having earlier risen as much
as 1.7 percent to 2,197 ringgit, its highest since Dec.
20.Trading volumes stood at 45,785 lots of 25 tonnes each.
1FCPO-TOT
"Production is seeing a lesser increase than expected, some
updates also suggest a marginal decline," said a Kuala
Lumpur-based futures trader, referring to output data from
the Malaysian Palm Oil Association showing that December
output rose 1 percent from the previous month.
A Reuters poll forecast Malaysian output to fall 3.6 percent
to 1.78 million tonnes in December, while inventories are
expected to rise to 3.14 million tonnes, the highest since
January 2000. physical trader said that exports were moving
out of Malaysia following India's decision to reduce import
taxes on Southeast Asian palm oil. is also offering less
supplies for January. People are waiting and hoping prices
will further go up," he said.India is the world's largest edible
oil importer, and had previously raised import duties on
edible oils last year to support local prices.
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as the dollar recovered from
lows and hopes for a trade deal between China and the
United States whetted risk appetite, making bullion less
attractive.Spot gold XAU= slipped 0.4 percent to $1,283.43
per ounce as of 1040 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCv1 were 0.4
percent lower at $1,284.50 per ounce."At the moment the
dollar is recovering, which is one of the reasons gold prices
are lower," said ABN AMRO (AS:ABNd) analyst Georgette
Boele. "At the same time, markets are nervous ahead of
discussions going on between U.S. and China."Stock
markets were trading higher as investors anticipated that
the Chinese-U.S. trade spat was nearing a close and that the
U.S. Federal Reserve would halt its monetary policy
tightening if economic growth slows further. MKTS/GLOB
RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD ABOVE 31790 TGT 31840 31940 SL BELOW
31720
SELL GOLD BELOW 31700 TGT 31650 31550 SL ABOVE
31770
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER ABOVE 39460 TGT 39600 39800 SL BELOW
39260
SELL SILVER BELOW 39350 TGT 39200 39000 SL ABOVE
39550
5. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
Barley 1941 -1.27
Castor Seed 5348 1.44
Chana 4198 -1.85
Coriander 6167 -2.74
Cotton Seed Oilcake 1930 -1.43
Guar Seed 10 MT 4348 0.24
Jeera 17490 -0.51
Mustardseed 3959 0.61
Soy Bean 3466 0.7
Turmeric 6626 0.18
RECOMMENDATIONS
GUARGUM5
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GUARGUM JAN ABOVE 8380 TARGET 8395/8320/8340
SL 8320
SELL GUARGUM JAN BELOW 8350 TARGET 8335/8320/8290
SL8410
DHANIYA
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY DHANIYA JAN ABOVE 6020 TARGET 6035/6055/6080 SL
5960
SELL DHANIYA JAN BELOW 6000 TARGET 5985/5960/5940
SL 6060
Pulses traders and millers in the main Pulses growing region
in Karnataka, have urged the government to implement the
price deficiency payment scheme (PDPS) or Bhavantar
yojana for purchase of Tur (red gram) from farmers, as their
business have been declined due to direct procurement by
state agencies.Traders claims that it would benefit the
Government in terms of lower costs and reduced payout,
while helping the trade and millers in terms of generating
some business. The Government could avoid the additional
handling, storing and managing costs by involving them in
the procurement through PDPS. The state had recently
implemented a PDPS in procuring Onions
Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent this
fiscal, against 6.7 per cent in FY18, according to data
released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).This GDP
estimate is higher than many other forecasts, but lower
than the RBI’s projections. Most private economists have
already lowered India’s growth forecast to around 7 per
cent for FY19, while the RBI’s estimate is 7.4 per cent.A
closer look at the growth data reveals that per capita
income is estimated to rise by over 11 per cent to reach Rs
1,25,397.According to the CSO data, agriculture fared
slightly better, and industry, barring mining and quarrying,
showed a similar trend. A substantial growth in
manufacturing is good news for the job sector, and the
manufacturing sector has a multiplier effect on
employmentHowever, services seems to be lagging behind
as two sub-groups - trade, hotels, transport, communication
and services related to broadcasting, and public
administration, defence and other services - are estimated
to grow slower than the previous year.
6. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 69.4814 Yen 64.21
Euro 79.3890 GBP 88.5943
USD/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
USD/INR
BUY USDINR FUTURE ABOVE 70.15 TARGET 70.25 70.35 SL
69.95
SELL USDINR FUTURE BELOW 70.4 TARGET 70.3 70.2 SL
70.6
GBP/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GBPINR FUTURE ABOVE 89.20 TARGET 89.3200/89.45 SL
89.0500
SELL GBPINR FUTURE BELOW 88.90 TARGET
88.7800/88.6500 SL 89.0500
The dollar fell versus other major currencies for a fourth
straight session on Tuesday, as investors grew increasingly
convinced the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates
this year amid uncertainties over the US economy.
The dollar index fell marginally to 95.64. It dipped 0.1 per
cent against the yen and eased marginally versus the euro
and sterling in early Asian trade. On Friday, Fed Chairman
Jerome Powell told the American Economic Association the
Fed is not on aa preset path of rate hikes and it will be
sensitive to the downside risks markets are pricing in.
The Indian Rupee reclaimed its key level of 70 against the
dollar on Tuesday. The currency depreciated 15 paise to
open at 69.83/$ compared to its previous close of
69.68.The domestic unit depreciated 41 paise to 70.09
against the dollar in intraday trade on Tuesday. At 9:40 AM
IST, the currency was trading at 70.06/$.The fall could be
attributed to increasing crude oil prices in the global
market. Crude oil extended its six-day winning strike, with
the international benchmark for oil prices, Brent gaining
0.2% at $57.47/barrels and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
crude rose 0.3% to $48.67/barrels.
The gain in oil prices was on the back of optimism
regarding a halt in the trade war between the United
States and China. Further, falling crude oil supply from
OPEC also kept oil prices Brent gaining 0.2% at $57.47/
barrels and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose
0 . 3 % t o $ 4 8 . 6 7 / b a r r e l s .
The gain in oil prices was on the back of optimism
regarding a halt in the trade war between the United
States and China. Further, falling crude oil supply from
OPEC also kept oil prices elevated. As per media reports,
OPEC oil supply fell in December by 460,000 barrels per
day (bpd) to 32.68mn bpd.
US stock futures and European equities rose on Tuesday
with investors eagerly awaiting news on any progress in
trade talks between the US and China.Futures on the Dow,
Nasdaq and S&P 500 all indicated to a firm opening after
the US showed optimism for arriving at a “reasonable” deal
7. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
Date
Commodity/
Currency Pairs
Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
08/1/19 NCDEX DHANIYA JAN BUY 6200
6215/6235/62
60
6140 NOT EXECUTED
08/1/19 NCDEX DHANIYA JAN Sell 6150
6135/6115/60
90
6210 TARGET
08/1/19
NCDEX
GUARGUM5
JAN BUY 8615
8630/8650/86
75
8565 NOT EXECUTED
08/1/19
NCDEX
GUARGUM5
JAN SELL 8590
8575/8555/85
30
8650 TARGET HIT
08/1/19 MCX GOLD JAN BUY 31790 31840 31940 31720
NOT EXECUTED
08/1/19 MCX GOLD JAN SELL 31700 31650 31550 31770
TARGET HIT
08/1/19 MCX SILVER MAR BUY 39460 39600 39800 39260 NOT EXECUTED
08/1/19 MCX SILVER MAR SELL 39350 39200 39000 39550 TARGET HIT
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
08/1/19 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 10720-10740 10830/10950 10600 NOT EXECUTED
08/1/19 BEML FUTURE BUY 922 930 914 SL HIT
08/1/19
AJANTA
PHARAMA
FUTURE BUY 1182 1197 1169 SL HIT
08/1/19 REPOHOME CASH BUY 424 428 420 TARGET
8. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
09–JAN-2019
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Disclaimer
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
9:45 am Markit manufacturing index flash Nov. -- 55.7
9:45 am Markit services index flash Nov. -- 54.8
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL
MEDIAN
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, JAN. 7
10 am ISM nonmanufacturing index Dec. -- 60.7%
10 am
TUESDAY, JAN. 8
6 am
8:30 am International trade* Nov. -$53.9 bln -$55.5bln
10 am
3 pm Consumer credit Nov. -- $25 bln
WEDNESDAY, JAN. 9
2 pm FOMC minutes
THURSDAY, JAN. 10
8:30 am
10 am Wholesale inventories* Nov. -- 0.8%
8:30 am Consumer price index Dec. -0.1% 0.0%
8:30 am Core CPI Dec. 0.2% 0.2%
FRIDAY, JAN. 11