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Epic research daily agri report 22nd may 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
22 May 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
CORIANDER
JUNE 11509 11928 11470 11928 +3.99 24520
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11623
SUPP. 2
11317
PIVOT
11775
Coriander short term
trend is up and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
12081
RES. 2
12233
CASTORSEED
JUNE 3918 3945 3896 3915 -0.33 48540
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3892
SUPP. 2
3870
PIVOT
3919
Castorseed short term
trend is up and June
continue in coming
days..RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3941
RES. 2
3977
TURMERIC
JUNE 8086 8198 8070 8100 +0.17 9520
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8047
SUPP. 2
7995
PIVOT
8123
Turmeric short term
trend is down and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8175
RES. 2
8251
GUARGUM
JUNE 11680 11750 11170 11400 -1.98 12422
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
11130
SUPP. 2
10860
PIVOT
11440
Guargum short term
trend is down and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11710
RES. 2
12020
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3915 3928 -0.33
CHANA 4694 4705 -0.23
CORIANDER 11928 11470 +3.99
GUARGUM 11400 11630 -1.98
JEERA 18795 18740 +0.29
MUSTARD SEED 4164 4120 +1.07
SOYABEAN 4064 4030 +0.84
TURMERIC 8100 8086 +0.17
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
19-06-2015 1778.00 -25.00 -1.39%
CHANA 19-06-2015 4686.00 -11.00 -0.23%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CORIANDER 19-06-2015 11928.00 508.00 4.45%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
19-06-2015 4158.00 58.00 1.41%
SOYABEAN 19-06-2015 4058.00 39.00 0.97%
JEERA 19-06-2015 18770.00 75.00 0.40%
TURMERIC 19-06-2015 8110.00 30.00 0.37%
BARLEY 19-06-2015 1269.50 4.50 0.36%
REFINED SOY OIL 19-06-2015 598.40 1.60 0.27%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
In the light of rural distress caused by the drought and unseasonal
rains, Maharashtra government has appealed to the seed companies
to reduce price of Bt cotton seeds by Rs 100 per bag from Rs 930 per
bag of 450 gram seeds to Rs 830 per bag.the state government
intends to convert this into a legal decision with provision for
punishment in case of violation, if the seedcompanies do not follow
voluntarily. The seed companies have already informed the state
government about their inability to do so citing increase in cost of
production.Bt cotton accounts for 60 per cent to 70 per cent of the
total turnover of the rapidly growing seed industry in the
country.Seed companies had sold 4.5 crore packets of Bt cotton
seeds in 2014-15, one third of which were sold in Maharashtra, the
state that has highest area under cotton in the country and ranks
second in production of the fibre crop.State governments have
controlled price of Bt cotton seeds, which have been constant from
last five years. The seed companies have already been fighting legal
battles on the rights of the state government to control seed
prices.Sale of cotton seeds in northern region, comprising Punjab,
Harayana and Rajasthan is almost over. In Maharashtra, only about 7
per cent to 8 per cent of the seeds have been sold in the areas where
cotton is sown early. Most of the seed sale will take place in the first
week of June.
Maharashtra government has urged cotton seed companies to
reduce the price of Bt cotton seeds by Rs 100 per bag from Rs 930
per bag of 450 gram seeds to Rs 830 to combat the rural distress
caused by the drought and then unseasonal rains. The state
government may convert the same into legal decision with the
provision of punishment if the seed companies do not follow the rule.
However the seed companies have informed the state government
about their inability to reduce the price of seed following the increase
in cost of production.
Volatile moves are being seen in Guar complex as traders eye the rainfall.
Guarseedfutures for far month deliveries are gaining while near month
contracts are trading .Because of lower rates, Indian export of Guargum has
increased. In first 11 month of 2014-15, export rose more than 21% to 6.62 lakh
tons while in same period of 2013-14 only 5.45 lakh tons gum was
exported.After the recent fall in rates, Guar rates recovered on export queries
even as uncertainty over Monsoon arrival persisted. Prospects of early arrival of
the Monsoon kept check on the rising rates for Guar as sowing could start early
in parts of Rajasthan and Haryana with the recent rains and irrigation facilities.
Comparing year on year, exports are higher following an increase in demand
from the food industry and oil exploration companies as the prices of guar gum
dropped to multi-year lows.
Pick up in exports ensured Jeera rates finding very strong support at the
lower levels and a strong recovery in prices were noted.A strong Dollar vs Re
too supported the export front as low production reports further gave support to
the market sentiments. Long term remains strong, though short term trend
remains highly volatile.Spot markets are mostly experiencing limited buying
and selling activity which explains why futures prices are trading in a confined
range. However, the near term price behaviour seems to be in favor of buyers
because of regular purchases among the local stockiest.Slower supply pace due
to the lean season factor might add to the positive tone. Also, there are supply
concerns from Syria and Turkey hence it is logical that Indians will be
motivated to export jeera at a raised offers.
Monsoon arrival progress is keenly watched by traders. Rise in Petrol/Diesel
prices amidst good demand and low production supported Chana prices.As per
3rd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, production of pulses estimated at 17.38
million tons is lower by 1.87 million tons than last year’s production. Chana
production is estimated at 7.59 million tons vs 9.53 million tons last year.As per
3rd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, production of pulses estimated at 17.38
million tons is lower by 1.87 million tons than last year’s production. Chana
production is estimated at 7.59 million tons vs 9.53 million tons .
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
Maharashtra government has urged cotton seed companies to reduce the price of Bt
cotton seeds by Rs 100 per bag from Rs 930 per bag of 450 gram seeds to Rs 830 to
combat the rural distress caused by the drought and then unseasonal rains. The state
government may convert the same into legal decision with the provision of
punishment if the seed companies do not follow the rule. However the seed companies
have informed the state government about their inability to reduce the price of seed
following the increase in cost of production. Cotton output in India would stand
around 384.5 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in the season 2014-15, around 5.6 per cent
lower when compared to the production of previous season which was 407.25 lakh
bales, said Cotton Association of India (CAI). Pricing of cotton seed has settled a
debate among the cotton growers and cotton seed producers in Andhra Pradesh and
Telangana. The seed industry is demanding the hike in the prices whereas farmers are
not supporting the same as this would increase the cost of production. The price
announced by these two acts as the benchmark for the rest of the cotton growing
states. According to Indian Cotton Federation (ICF), unsold stocks of cotton held by
the ginners and traders are approximately 20 lakh bales. CCI has sold 6.68 lakh bales
of cotton so far from the stocks it procured during the current season under MSP
procurement operation. Cotton arrival on the daily basis has been diminished to 40000
bales per day.
China imported around 160,800 tonnes of cotton in April, approximately 28.3%
lower when compared to the volume imported during the same month last year,
according to the official custom data. During the initial four month of the year,
imports to China fell by around 38.2 percent year on year to 609,000 tonnes, said
China Cotton Association (CCA) citing custom data. Around 44% of cotton planting
has been completed in USA as on May 17 this year, which was 26% last week and
35% last year on same date, according to USDA. The five year average sowing
progress is 46% as on date, slightly higher than the current sowing pace. According to
Informa Economics, all cotton acreage in USA would stand around 9.334 million
acres, lower than the March estimates of USDA which was 9.549 million acres. World
cotton production is likely to decline in 2015-16 following the fall in area and yield
CENTER 21-May-15 20-May-15 Change
AMRAVATI 150 150 UNCH
MAHESANA NA NA -
RAJKOT 900 1150 -250
PATAN NA NA -
DEESA NA NA -
BHIWANI NA NA -
GONDAL 402 537 -135
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER JUNE ABOVE 11928 TARGET 11953 11993 SL
BELOW11903
BUY GUARGUM JUNE ABOVE 11550 TARGET 11600 11660 SL
BELOW 11490
SELL TURMERIC JUNE BELOW 8060 TARGET 8020 7960 SL
ABOVE 8120
SELL CASTORSEED JUNE BELOW 3910 TARGET 3885 3855 SL
ABOVE 3935
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