Encuesta Presidenciales Argentina Synopsis Abril 2019

THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION IN ARGENTINA
NATIONWIDE POLL 
9th April 2019
Piedras 1141 5to. “E” ( C1140ABE) – City of Buenos Aires - Argentina Synopsis Consultores

30,5
36,0
18,7
14,7
Entre 18 y 29 años Entre 30 y 49 años
Entre 50 y 64 años Más de 65 años
synopsis.com.ar | PÁGINA 1
1
SAMPLE SUMMARY (NATIONWIDE)
GENDER DISTRIBUTION
9th APRIL 2019
SAMPLE: 2.372 OBSERVATIONS (in main Cities of the Country)
synopsis.com.ar @SynopsisConsult info@synopsis.com.ar
47,9 52,1
HOMBRES MUJERES
GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE (% DISTRIBUTION)
AGE DISTRIBUTION
EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION
CITIES
36,1
20,5
22,9
10,2
10,2
Primario Comp. o Incomp. Secundario Incompleto
Secundario Completo Terciario o Univers. Incomp.
Terciario o Univers. Comp.
6
1
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
2
24
25
26 27
28
29
MEN WOMEN
16-29 years
50-64 years
30-49 years
More than 65 years
Elementary School completed
or incompleted
Middle School completed
Middle School incompleted
High School incompleted
High School or College Completed

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2
o  The perception of Mauricio Macri’s government performance continued deteriorating in
April and has not found its floor yet: there was another fall in the positive opinion (-1.3)
while the negative perception rose (+1.7) compared to March. The difference between
the negative (58.8%) and positive image (23.9%) was -34.9%.
o  Concerns about Inflation climbed for the third consecutive month and rose by +2.9
p.p. (percentage points) in April, thus witnessing its highest value during the entire
administration of Cambiemos (44.6%). There was a slight increase in concerns about
Unemployment (+3.4%); resulting in 63.8% of concerns being related to economic
issues.
o  As for expectations, April started seeing the consolidation of improvements, both for
expectations about the country’s future and about people’s personal situation. Overall, we
observe a drop in pessimistic expectations and an increase in optimism about the future.
This phenomenon may be related to people’s expectations about the outcome of
presidential elections.
o  Regarding the elections, April’s government/opposition voting intention registered a
drop of -1.8 p.p. in the intention to vote for the government (taking it below 30% for
the first time) and an increase of +2.6 p.p. in the intention to vote for the opposition
(taking it to 57%). The level of undecided voters remained stable, on 13.2%.
o  When looking at the scenarios for the general elections, and assuming that Mauricio
Macri and Cristina Kirchner will be the candidates representing their respective political
forces, we presented three alternative scenarios to compare the performance of the three
main candidates for the coalition that that non-Kirchnerist Peronism and dissident sectors
of the Socialist and Radicalist parties are currently trying to build (hereby referred to as
the third alternative):
o  In all of the scenarios, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has the highest voting
intention, registering the worst performance in the scenario in which Lavagna is
the candidate for the third alternative (35.9%) and the best one in the scenario in
which Urtubey is the candidate representing that coalition (39.8%).
o  Mauricio Macri comes in second place, having the best performance with
Urtubey as the opposition candidate from the third alternative (31.2%) and the
worst performance with Lavagna as candidate of that coalition (28.8%).
o  Among the candidates of the third alternative, Roberto Lavagna has the best
performance, with a voting intention of 16.5%. He is followed by Sergio Massa
(10.7%) and Juan Manuel Urtubey (7.9%).
synopsis.com.ar @SynopsisConsult info@synopsis.com.ar9th APRIL 2019
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
o  Assessing the ballotage scenarios between Mauricio Macri and the three main candidates
of the opposition (CFK, Lavagna and Massa), we can observe even scenarios when
Macri faces Cristina Kirchner (-0.7) and Sergio Massa (+0.7%), whereas it is visibly
unfavourable when Macri faces Roberto Lavagna (-14.6%). When making the
projection for undecided voters (based on re-asking the questions made in the polls),
Macri loses against all three candidates, with the most close-fought defeat taking
place in the scenario in which he competes against Cristina Kirchner (-1.8%), while
the worst performance for Macri takes place in the scenario in which he faces
Lavagna in the ballotage (-22.6%).
o  When looking at rejection levels and asking what the least desirable result is, 49.0%
believe that the victory of Mauricio Macri is the worst outcome, while the rejection
for Cristina Kirchner coming out victorious reaches 43.8%. There is no rejection for
Lavagna, who is probably favoured by the high rejection levels for the two other
candidates positioned at the two extremes of the political cleavage.
o  Among those who DO NOT want Macri to win, 66.9% believe that Cristina Kirchner
is the candidate best fit to defeat him. While among those who DO NOT want
Cristina Kirchner to win, 68.5% believe that Macri is the candidate in best condition
to defeat her.
o  Among those who wish Macri to lose, 17.5% is willing to change their vote to favour
his defeat, while among those wanting Cristina Kirchner to lose, 20.8% would change
their vote to make sure that she does not win. Among both groups, there exists a
percentage willing to vote strategically (tactical vote).
synopsis.com.ar @SynopsisConsult info@synopsis.com.ar9th APRIL 2019

4 synopsis.com.ar @SynopsisConsult info@synopsis.com.ar
PUBLIC OPINION
CONTEXT
9th APRIL 2019

GOOD
14.5
VERY
GOOD
9.4
DK/NA
1.0
VERY BAD
43.0
BAD
15.8
AVERAGE
16.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A
2016 2017 2018 2019
POSITIVA NEGATIVA REGULAR POSITIVE NEGATIVE AVERAGE
J J J
MAURICIO MACRI’S GOVERNMENT APPROVAL RATE
How do you rate Mauricio Macri’s government performance?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL
5
EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)
POSITIVE
23.9
NEGATIVE
58.8
9th APRIL 2019

5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2016 2017 2018 2019
INFLACIÓN DESEMPLEO CORRUPCIÓN INSEGURIDAD INFLATION
44.6
19.2
14.5
9.3
5.5
1.6 0.7
4.5
ISSUES FACING THE COUNTRY
In your opinion. what is the most important problem facing this
country?
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
63.8%
INFLATION UNEMPLOYMENT CORRUPTION CRIME EDUCATION DRUG
TRAFFICING
HEALTH OTHER
UNEMPLOYMENT CORRUPTION CRIME
J J J
9th APRIL 2019

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019
MEJOR IGUAL PEOR BETTER
J J J
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE COUNTRY’S FUTURE
How do you think the country’s economic situation will be in a
year’s time?
26.0
19.8
43.1
11.1
SAME WORSE
9th APRIL 2019
BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019
MEJOR IGUAL PEOR
J J J
EXPECTATIONS FOR FUTURE PERSONAL SITUATION
How do you think your personal economic situation will be in a
year’s time?
21.7
26.9
40.2
11.3
BETTER SAME WORSE
9th APRIL 2019
BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

2019 ELECTORAL
SCENARIOS
9th APRIL 2019

29.8
57.0
13.2
Cambiemos Otra fuerza política Indeciso
2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIOS
If the presidential elections were today. which party would you vote for?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR
2018 2019
CAMBIEMOS OTRA FUERZA POLÍTICA INDECISOS
EVOLUTION OVER LAST 10 MONTHS (AUGUST 2018-APRIL 2019)
AUG
Undecided Other party
OTHER PARTY UNDECIDED
9th APRIL 2019

18.4
27.1
37.8
43.2
23.5
15.6
11.4
11.0
41.3
35.3
33.5
29.5
6.7
9.3
7.0
5.3
6.9
9.1
8.3
8.8
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (General Election)
If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would
you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (LAVAGNA´S SCENARIO)
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
28.8
16.5
35.9
3.0
7.5 8.2
Mauricio
Macri
Roberto
Lavagna
Cristina
Kirchner
Nicolás
del Caño
A otro
candidato
Indeciso
28.9
28.7
14.5
18.4
37.2
34.8
8.1
6.9
7.7
8.7
Hombre
Mujer
31.4
28.1
28.6
28.6
29.3
20.3
12.7
14.4
22.1
19.0
33.9
40.7
41.7
23.3
31.7
5.7
5.2
7.1
11.0
9.7
6.6
11.0
6.9
8.2
6.6
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patag. y Cuyo
24.8
29.6
31.0
24.9
12.9
15.0
35.1
37.4
34.4
5.5
8.6
10.0
7.1
8.7
8.4
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño A otro candidato Indeciso
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
City of Buenos Aires
Grand Buenos Aires
Center of the Country
North of the Country
South of the Country
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
9th APRIL 2019
Undecided
Undecided
Other
Candidate
Other Candidate
Elementary School
Middle School
College

30,4
31,2
10,3
11,1
37,5
37,4
12,9
10,6
6,7
7,8
Hombre
Mujer
21,6
28,7
39,2
44,7
12,0
10,8
9,0
10,4
44,4
36,5
34,3
29,6
14,3
13,2
9,3
5,8
6,3
8,2
6,9
7,7
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
43,5
29,3
30,0
26,7
33,5
8,2
10,7
6,6
18,6
10,6
30,3
40,1
44,2
28,2
34,2
9,0
6,7
12,6
17,8
13,5
6,5
10,0
5,8
8,0
4,2
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patag. y Cuyo
30,4
29,4
33,3
14,6
9,3
9,7
40,1
37,6
35,0
7,9
12,3
14,0
5,5
8,7
6,8
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Mauricio Macri, Sergio Massa Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño A otro candidato Indeciso
30,8
10,7
37,5
2,0
11,7
7,3
Mauricio
Macri
Sergio
Massa
Cristina
Kirchner
Nicolás
del Caño
A otro
candidato
Indeciso
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (MASSA´S SCENARIO)
9th APRIL 2019
Undecided
Undecided
Other
Candidate
Other Candidate
Elementary School
Middle School
College

29,7
32,6
8,6
7,3
41,4
38,3
12,6
9,2
6,1
9,6
Hombre
Mujer
24,1
27,9
40,0
42,9
10,0
7,8
5,8
6,5
48,5
38,7
35,1
30,3
10,3
13,2
10,0
7,1
5,3
8,8
7,6
11,6
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
43,4
28,8
32,0
26,7
32,9
5,4
6,5
4,0
15,2
11,6
35,5
42,4
44,9
33,4
33,7
8,6
7,4
10,6
15,2
14,1
6,2
10,4
7,6
7,6
5,0
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patag. y Cuyo
31,3
29,9
33,1
6,8
8,9
7,3
42,6
39,8
37,3
7,5
10,9
13,6
8,9
8,0
7,0
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Mauricio Macri Juan Manuel Urtubey Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño A otro candidato Indeciso
31,2
7,9
39,8
2,4
10,8
7,9
Mauricio
Macri
Juan Manuel
Urtubey
Cristina
Kirchner
Nicolás
del Caño
A otro
candidato
Indeciso
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (URTUBEY´S SCENARIO)
9th APRIL 2019
Undecided
Undecided
Other
Candidate
Other Candidate
Elementary School
Middle School
College

FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND MASSA ´S SCENARIOS
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL- (SANKEY DIAGRAM)
FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND URTUBEY´S SCENARIOS
APRIL 2019 - NATIONAL TOTAL- (SANKEY DIAGRAM)
9th APRIL 2019
Undecided
Undecided
Undecided Undecided
Others Others
Others

2019 BALLOTAGE
SCENARIOS
9th APRIL 2019

VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS
WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)
44.3
42.7
34.9
10.8
15.3
15.6
45.0
42.0
49.5
VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS
-
DIFFERENCES
MACRI OPPONENT UNDECIDED
MACRI
vs.
CFK
MACRI
vs.
LAVAGNA
MACRI
vs.
MASSA
0.7
0.7
14.6
49.1
46.0
38.8
50.9
54.0
61.2
DIFFERENCES

1.8
8.0
22.4
MACRI
vs.
CFK
MACRI
vs.
LAVAGNA
MACRI
vs.
MASSA
2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS COMPARED
9th APRIL 2019
MACRI OPPONENT UNDECIDED

17
CFK
50.9
MACRI
49.1 INDECISOS
Escenario base
Según tipo indecisos
Proyección indecisos
10.8
44.3 45.0
44.3
44.3
4.8
10.8
6.0 45.0
45.0
Mauricio Macri Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Indecisos (CFK) CFK
37.10
42.52
51.31
54.59
12.9
9.8
7.8
12.3
50.0
47.7
40.9
33.1
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
54.0
41.1
42,4
41.8
53.4
6.3
12.7
8.6
15.0
8.5
39.7
46.2
49.0
43.2
38.1
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patagonia y Cuyo
Mauricio Macri No sabe Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
9th APRIL 2019
2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-CFK
If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Mauricio Macri and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)
Baseline Scenario
By Undecided Type
Projection for Undecided
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
Undecided (Macri) Undecided (CFK) Undecided
Undecided

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MAR ´18 JUN. ´18 SEP. ´18 OCT.´18 DIC.´18 MAR.´19 ABR.´19
Mauricio Macri Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner Indecisos
EVOLUTION OF BALLOTAGE´S SCENARIO BETWEN MACRI AND CFK (MARCH 2018-APRIL 2019 –NATIONAL TOTAL)
CFK
50.9
MACRI
49.1
Escenario base
10,8
44,3 45,0
BEGINIG OF THE CURRENCY CRISIS
9th APRIL 2019
Baseline Scenario
By Undecided Type
44.3
44.3
4.8
10.8
6.0 45.0
45.0
Mauricio Macri Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Indecisos (CFK) CFK
between Mauricio Macri and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-CFK
Undecided (Macri) Undecided (CFK) Undecided
Undecided

34.9
34.9
4.0
15.6
11.7 49.5
49.5
Mauricio Macri Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Indecisos (Lavagna) Roberto Lavagna
19
LAVAGNA
61,2
MACRI
38,8 INDECISOS
Escenario base
15,6
34,9
49,5
28.6
32.7
41.0
45.3
16.9
15.6
15.9
13.1
54.5
51.8
43.1
41.6
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
47.3
30.6
35.6
34.6
34.1
15.9
19.5
15.0
15.3
8.7
36.8
49.9
49.5
50.2
57.2
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patagonia y Cuyo
Maurio Macri No sabe Roberto Lavagna
9th APRIL 2019
Baseline Scenario
By Undecided Type
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
between Mauricio Macri and Roberto Lavagna, who would you vote for?
2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-LAVAGNA
Undecided (Macri) Undecided (Lavagna) Undecided
Undecided

20
MASSA
54,0
MACRI
46,0 INDECISOS
Escenario base
15,3
42,7 42,0
42.7
42.7
3.3
15.3
12.0 42.0
42.0
Mauricio Macri Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Indecisos (Massa) Sergio Massa
36.4
41.2
48.5
52.1
12.8
17.7
15.4
14.3
50.8
41.1
36.1
33.6
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
52.7
37.9
41.7
44.5
46.2
13.8
21.0
14.7
11.4
10.2
33.5
41.1
43.6
44.1
43.6
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patagonia y Cuyo
Maurio Macri No sabe Sergio Massa
9th APRIL 2019
Baseline Scenario
By Undecided Type
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
between Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa, who would you vote for?
2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-MASSA
Undecided (Macri) Undecided (Massa) Undecided
Undecided

LAVAGNA
56.6
CFK
43.4 INDECISOS
Escenario base
13,5
44,6 41,9
44.6
44.6
12.0
13.5
1.5 41.9
41.9
Roberto Lavagna Indecisos (Lavagna) Indecisos Indecisos (CFK) Cristina Kirchner
34.8
48.5
46.5
53.1
15.4
10.2
16.1
14.1
49.8
41.3
37.4
32.8
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
40.3
44.8
39.9
52.6
46.6
22.0
10.1
14.3
12.5
14.3
37.7
45.1
45.7
34.8
39.0
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patagonia y Cuyo
Roberto Lavagna No sabe Cristina Kirchner
9th of APRIL 2019
Baseline Scenario
By Undecided Type
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
between Roberto Lavagna and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO LAVAGNA-CFK
Undecided (Lavagna) Undecided (CFK) Undecided
Undecided

ELECTORAL DYNAMIC
ACCORDING TO REJECT LEVELS
OF CANDIDATES
9th APRIL 2019

57.7
52.0
39.7
35.2
36.6
42.4
51.6
52.1
4.3
4.2
6.8
11.4
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
40.4
53.0
50.8
46.2
45.8
54.7
39.3
42.5
45.2
47.2
4.3
6.0
6.0
6.1
5.5
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patagonia y Cuyo
48,4
50,8
46,7
39,1
43,0
48,9
11,7
4,4
2,9
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Maurio Macri Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna NS/NC
Out of these candidates, who would you NOT want to win the elections?
REJECT BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
REJECT BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
REJECT BY AGE
APRIL 2019
REJECT BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
49.0
43.8
1.5
5.8
Maurio Macri Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna NS/NC
51.8
46.4
41.4
45.9
4.8
6.7
Hombre
Mujer
9th APRIL 2019
2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Rejection Levels)
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
DK/NA
DK/NA
Elementary School
Middle School
College

And who do you think is best fit to defeat Macri?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING MACRI TO LOSE)
66.9 19.1 14.0
Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna NS/NC
67.8
66.1
20.2
18.0
12.0
16.0
Hombre
Mujer
69.9
64.0
66.2
67.9
15.8
20.8
23.7
17.8
14.3
15.2
10.1
14.3
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
78.2
67.9
73.3
50.2
63.3
8.7
17.9
14.6
31.6
24.0
13.1
14.2
12.1
18.2
12.7
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patag. y Cuyo
67.5
65.2
69.3
20.3
19.3
17.5
12.2
15.5
13.1
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna A otro candidato
9th APRIL 2019
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
DK/NA
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
DK/NA
Elementary School
Middle School
College

68.2
68.8
19.3
10.8
12.5
20.4
Hombre
Mujer
68.3
68.9
66.4
70.9
15.6
13.6
16.0
14.4
16.1
17.5
17.6
14.7
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
74.8
65.0
75.1
59.2
70.3
14.1
12.5
13.8
16.1
19.9
11.1
22.5
11.1
24.7
9.8
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patag. y Cuyo
68.3
72.1
64.0
12.2
12.1
19.9
19.5
15.8
16.1
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna A otro candidato
68.5 14.8 16.7
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna NS/NC
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
9th APRIL 2019
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
And who do you think is best fit to defeat Cristina Kirchner?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING CFK TO LOSE)
DK/NA
DK/NA
Elementary School
Middle School
College

18.4
16.5
37.8
34.2
29.1
28.9
14.6
20.3
Hombre
Mujer
15.6
19.1
21.0
13.2
36.9
37.9
33.3
29.7
25.7
31.1
30.1
32.1
21.7
11.9
15.5
25.1
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
22.3
11.0
15.9
22.1
28.1
31.2
35.1
39.0
37.9
31.1
18.7
36.0
26.7
25.7
30.9
27.9
17.9
18.4
14.3
9.8
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patag. y Cuyo
18.3
11.9
26.0
26.1
40.7
37.5
28.6
31.1
26.0
27.1
16.3
10.5
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Si, estaría dispuesto Depende a qué otro tenga que votar No, no lo cambiaria No, no lo cambiaria
17.5 36.0 29.0 17.5
Si, estaría dispuesto Depende a qué otro tenga que votar
No, no lo cambiaria No sabe
2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Strategic Vote)
Would you be willing to change your vote if your candidate does not
guarantee Macri’s defeat?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING MACRI TO LOSE)
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
9th APRIL 2019
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
It depends on which other candidate has to vote
DK/NA
Yes, I Would
No, I Wouldn´t
Yes, I Would No, I Wouldn´t DK-NA It depends on which other candidate
has to vote
Elementary School
Middle School
College

24.8
17.2
32.1
30.8
30.2
29.7
12.9
22.2
Hombre
Mujer
10.3
23.3
29.0
19.1
42.0
32.8
25.4
22.4
28.4
28.3
27.4
38.4
19.2
15.6
18.2
20.1
16 y 29 años
30 y 49 años
50 y 64 años
65 años o mas
28.2
16.4
22.8
19.1
22.3
28.2
28.1
29.5
33.4
41.4
26.6
33.5
33.5
25.0
24.2
17.0
21.9
14.1
22.4
12.1
CABA
GBA
Centro
Norte
Patag. y Cuyo
18.6
19.1
24.3
18.1
34.4
35.6
35.6
30.7
25.5
27.6
15.8
14.7
Primario
Secundario
Terciario
Si, estaría dispuesto Depende a qué otro tenga que votar No, no lo cambiaria No, no lo cambiaria
20.8 31.4 29.9 17.9
Si, estaría dispuesto Depende a qué otro tenga que votar
No, no lo cambiaria No sabe
27 synopsis.com.ar @SynopsisConsult info@synopsis.com.ar9th APRIL 2019
Would you be willing to change your vote if your candidate does not
guarantee CFK´s defeat?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING CFK TO LOSE)
WOMEN
MEN
16-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
65 or + years
Grand Buenos Aires
It depends on which other candidate has to vote
DK/NA
Yes, I Would
No, I Wouldn´t
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
APRIL 2019
2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Strategic Vote)
Yes, I Would No, I Wouldn´t DK-NA It depends on which other candidate
has to vote
Elementary School
Middle School
College

POLLING METHODOLOGY
synopsis.com.ar @SynopsisConsult info@synopsis.com.ar 28

FIELDWORK DATE: 4th to 6th April 2019.
AREA: Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA by its Spanish
acronym) and main cities in the country’s provinces (La Plata, Mar del
Plata, Bahía Blanca, Tandil, San Nicolás, Rosario, Paraná, Comodoro
Rivadavia, San M. de Tucumán, Santa Fe, Córdoba, Mendoza, Salta,
Corrientes, Neuquén, Santa Rosa, La Rioja, Catamarca, San Luis, San
Juan, Posadas, Resistencia, Santiago del Estero, Formosa, Usuahia, Río
Gallegos, Formosa y Bariloche).
SAMPLE DESIGN: Stratified probabilistic sample by
population’s sex, age and level of education. Weighted by Sex,
Age, and Education Level according to census data.
UNIVERSE: Population of more than 16 years old. living in
private households with a land-line phone in the Buenos Aires
Metropolitan Area and the main cities of the nation’s
provinces.
SAMPLE SIZE: 2.372 observations.
COLLECTION TOOL: Structured Questionnaire.
SURVEY SYSTEM: Telephone survey (IVR - Interactive Voice
Response).
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: 95.5%.
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 2.0

9th APRIL 2019

Encuesta Presidenciales Argentina Synopsis Abril 2019

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Encuesta Presidenciales Argentina Synopsis Abril 2019