A presentation on 'What are the market and technology drivers for the connected home?' as part of the 3rd Annual Digital Lifestyle Forum - Beyond The Connected Home at The Langham Hotel, London on 29th June 2006.
This presentation provided a perspective of: the UK Broadband Market; Connected Home Drivers; ntl network assets – a Cableco and a Telco; The Home of the Future and Broadband Packaging Strategies.
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CONNECTED HOME PRESENTATION: What are the market and technology drivers for the connected home?
1. Dowshan Humzah – 29th
June 2006
What are the market and technology drivers for the
connected home?
Dowshan Humzah
Director, Strategy and Planning - Products
3rd Annual Digital Lifestyle Forum - Beyond The Connected Home
The Langham Hotel, London
29th
June 2006
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Dowshan Humzah – 29th
June 2006
Agenda
1. The UK Broadband Market
2. Connected Home Drivers
3. ntl:Telewest network assets – a Cableco and a Telco
4. The Home of the Future
5. Broadband Packaging Strategies
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June 2006
1: The UK Broadband Market
Broadband Growth
Internet Penetration
Q1 2006 Residential Market Share
Intense Competition
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June 2006
Broadband Growth
Sources: Oftcom, National Statistics, Enders Analysis, Forrester, Jupiter, Strategy Analytics and ntl analyses. Note: Business ADSL included
UKBB/DUHomes(million)
1.2
2.8
5.5
8.9
13.8
15.3
16.4 16.9
9.3 9.7
8.4
6.1
4.1
2.9
2.2 1.6 1.5
11.9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Broadband Dial-Up
2005 – a record year for new subscribers
Over a third of UK homes now have broadband
Strong growth expected
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June 2006
Internet Penetration
UKInternetPenetration(%ofUKhomes)
43%
51%
56%
60%
5%
11%
22%
36%
2002 2003 2004 2005
Total Broadband
40%
31%
36%
Cable areas Non-cable areas UK average
Infrastructure competition
and choice has aided
increased broadband
penetration
35% in cable areas vs. 23%
in non cable (i.e. DSL only)
areas
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June 2006
Intense Competition
*Based on select leading ISP offers. Media source: Thomson Intermedia
£63.15 £63.15 £63.83 £63.83
£52.85 £53.08
£40.80 £39.36
£21.19 £21.19
£15.13
£8.07 £7.00
36 35
31
46
£36
£54
£32
£34 £35 £36
£32
£38
£42
Q1-03 Q2-03 Q3-03 Q4-03 Q1-04 Q2-04 Q3-04 Q4-04 Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06
Price per Mb* Media Spend £m
Bandwidth is more affordable
Prices down, speeds up and media spend heavy!
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Dowshan Humzah – 29th
June 2006
2: Connected Home Drivers
Access Competition Impact – Connected Home Drivers
Broadband User Behaviour (ntl Broadband Base)
- Average Time on Broadband Service
- PC Penetration
- Home Networking
- Always-On PCs
- Frequency of Internet Use
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June 2006
Access Providers Impact – Connected Home Drivers
Providers bundle networked
services to drive ARPU/retention
Wireless networking
VOIP
Home security
IP TV
Online storage
512k 10Mb
Song 1min 20 4 secs
CD 12 mins 36 secs
Movie 3.5 hours 9 mins
Higher speeds make audio/video
transfer feasible
Access provider competition is helping to drive home connectivity
The future is the ‘multi-play’
One very high speed connection, one bill, multiple integrated services
ntl:Telewest already provides this
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Average Time on Broadband Service
19
22
23
2Mb 4Mb 10Mb
Averagetimeonbroadband(months)
Early majority have higher speed connections
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PC Penetration
38% 39%
59%
68%
DU 2Mb 4Mb 10Mb
Early majority and those on higher tiers are likely to have more than 1 PC
%customerswithmorethanonePCathome
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Home Networking
13%
26%
39%
DU 2Mb 4Mb 10Mb
Not
recorded
…And to have a home network
%customerswithahomenetwork
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June 2006
Always-On PCs
14%
23%
30%
45%21%
33%
36%
32%
66%
44%
34%
23%
DU 2Mb 4Mb 10Mb
Only when in front
of PC
Generally on when
at home
All the time, or
during the day
…And more likely to keep the PC on all day
%customerskeepingPConallday/
whenathome/whenusing
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June 2006
Frequency of Internet Use
52%
66%
77%
83%
DU 2Mb 4Mb 10Mb
…And to use the Internet more frequently
%customersusingtheinternet
severaltimesperday
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3: ntl:Telewest Network assets – a Cableco and a Telco…
ntl:Telewest’s network vs. BT’s network
ntl:Telewest’s speed advantage over BT (for ADSL2+)
Distribution of Telephone (Local Loop) Length in the UK
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June 2006
ntl:Telewest’s network vs. BT’s network
ntl:Telewest already delivers triple play….moving to quad play
Sky, BT and Wanadoo/Orange are chasing this space in the UK
BT (and LLU operators) can only match ntl:Telewest in mass deployment of faster DSL²
with further significant investment in deeper fibre and shorter copper
This is not currently planned
Depth of fibre
Network Asset Ntl:Telewest
• Deeper, therefore closer to customer
• All the way through to all street cabinets
Length of copper
• Shorter copper enabling higher speeds
• c.95% of homes <1km¹
Access architecture
• Dual access – triple play already delivered
• Both coaxial cable (DOCSIS) and copper
(ADSL)
• Only through to exchanges
• Then copper through to street cabinets
• Longer copper
• c.5% of homes <1km
• Copper (ADSL) only
BT
¹Source: ntl Networks analysis 2005. ²Defined as 18Mb+ services to homes with short copper i.e. c.<1km.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Loop Length (kilo feet)
DataRateMb/s
ADSL2+
ADSL2
ntl potential x5
speed advantage
95%¹
<1km
95%
< 5.6km
50%
< 3.25km
5%¹
<1km
ntl short loop copper: c.7.2m homes
Homentl Network
HomeBT Network¹
c.4.5Mb/s
up to 24Mb/s
ntl’s speed advantage over BT (for ADSL2+)
¹BT Evolving Access Networks Presentation 2005. Rates in practice will be lower than these theoretical performance figures
BT/LLU short loop copper: c.1.3m homes
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4: The Home of the Future
The Home of the Future
Drivers
The New Communications Environment
Future Broadband Bandwidth Requirements
Triple Play/Cross Product Propositions
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The Home of the Future
The idea of the ‘home of the future’ has a long history
But has always remained in the future
Answers magazine (1893) enthused about the electrical home of the future¹
"fitted throughout with electricity, electric stoves in every room…can be lighted by
pressing a button at the bed side…doors and windows fitted with electric fastenings."
Designers of the 'miracle kitchen' (American National Exhibition - Moscow)¹
"household chores in the future will be gone for the American housewife at the touch of a
button or the wave of a hand“
The Internet and ‘digitising’ of information, communications and
entertainment is helping to re-ignite this vision
Many companies have a vision of a ubiquitous value network, with all devices connected
so that you can enjoy content anytime, anywhere
¹ Economist Technology Quarterly 18 Sept 2004 – reported Moscow 1959
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Drivers
There are 5 key elements to the emerging phenomenon of the digital ‘home
of the future’
Single high bandwidth pipe
Elements Key driving factors
DOCSIS/ ADSL2+ provides high speed/dedicated services
Carries multiple services of data, video and voice
Portable devices that connect
automatically
Increased penetration of MP3 players, digital cameras, PDAs
Drive to standardisation to aid simple, seamless connectivity
Content/applications migrate to portable
devices at edge of the network
Rising bandwidth and shrinking storage costs leading to more
smart and fewer physical devices such as DVDs/CDs
Wireless channel
Provides for mobile networking in home
18% of European homes forecast to have connected home
networks by 2009¹
Closed wired network
High bandwidth allows for HDTV entertainment services
Quality of service can be guaranteed
¹Strategy Analytics
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Source: Strategy Analytics, Emerging Frontiers Jan 2005
The New Communications Environment
The current communications environment is not conducive for the
‘home of the future’
Separate
Incompatible
Patchwork
Seamless
Converged
Compatible
Interconnected
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Source: Strategy Analytics, Emerging Frontiers Jan 2005
The New Communications Environment / cont.
A shift to greater intelligence and interconnectedness will improve the
customer experience
Standalone Devices
Increasing Barriers to Use
Limited Compatibility
Minimal Intelligence
Interconnected Systems
Embedded Intelligence
Seamless Content Access
Adaptive Capability
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Future Broadband Bandwidth Requirements
Single Person home
Household Bandwidth Requirements Total
4.5Mb
Two person home One broadcast TV channel being recorded 3.5Mb
One broadcast TV channel (live sports quality) 3.5Mb
Internet browsing (BBC media player) 1.0Mb
Music download in progress 0.5Mb
8.5Mb
Two parents with 2
or 3 children
One HDTV channel being viewed (MPEG4) 8.0Mb
One broadcast channel being recorded 2.0Mb
Multi-play online game via PS3 1.0Mb
Internet browsing (BBC media player) 1.0Mb
VoIP call in progress 0.5Mb
12.5Mb
Source: BT Wholesale presentation April 2005
One broadcast TV channel (live sports quality) 3.5Mb
Music download in progress 0.5Mb
Internet browsing (email/search) 0.5Mb
Consumer segments and mass applications may drive demand for greater
bandwidth (for applications over IP)
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Triple-Quad Play Product Propositions
Internet
TV
Telephony
- CPE
-Video conf.
-Voice/video
Over IP
-Wifi/3G/
Bluetooth
‘mobility’
-FMC
-HDTV
-IP VoD
-Share photos/
music
-TV over wi-fi
Communication Entertainment
Information/Communication
-CLI/bill on TV
Traditional outward focus
Cross product / converged focus
Evolving technology platforms
will help to support an increased
cross product / converged focus
For e.g.
Photobox on
Internet and TV
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5: Broadband Packaging Strategies
ntl Product Portfolio - 2006
Shoreditch Digital Bridge
The Future
So Who Lives in a Connected Home Today?
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ntl product portfolio - 2006
Adding value to access
A market leading portfolio meeting needs of customers
…high speed
…unlimited usage
…content and applications for high bandwidth
Tier 1 £14.99 512Kb[1GB]
Tier 2 £17.99 2Mb[Unlimited]
Tier 3 £24.99 4Mb[Unlimited]
Tier 4 £34.99 10Mb[Unlimited]
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SDB Vision
To bridge the digital divide by increasing take-up of public services, enabling efficiencies for providers
and generating new delivery models for Government
Core Proposition
Deliver consumer centric and public sector services - alongside commercial services
Triple play proposition (key focus on local community content and computer on TV services)¹
Platform²
Utilise the TV for delivery of majority of ‘online’ services
Cable would be preferable to LLU (given performance, capacity and cost)²
Shoreditch Local TV
Content / Channels
Updates from Borough Commander/Police
Online access to local CCTV cameras in the neighbourhood
Crime Channel
Increase residents’ disposable income through ‘group buying’ of
utilities/services and encourage full take-up of benefits entitlement
Improved household budgeting
Money Channel
‘What’s On’ guide to the local area
Interaction with the local MP and Mayor
Local Channel
Standard DTV/VoD entertainment servicesDigital TV
Deliver broadband (Full Internet and MS office apps) to the TV
Mitigate fixed cost of a PC for low income residents
Computer on TV
Other TV Services
Shoreditch Digital Bridge Proposition
Consumer proposition focuses on ‘bringing online’ the ‘digitally
disenfranchised’
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SDB Consumer Offering: Look and Feel
The consumer experience is controlled via the remote control/keyboard allowing full TV and PC functionality
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The Future
What’s coming?
Innovations in connectivity
Continuing growth of wireless
home-networking
Greater focus on VOIP
Arrival of IP VOD
What’s needed?
Even higher speeds – up & down
Joint action on wireless security
Clarity on broadband speed claims
Video rights holders to embrace the
internet
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So Who Lives in a Connected Home Today?
Mostly early-adopters
Higher speeds, wireless (in-home) packages and bundled services are
helping attracting first timers
We need to act together to sustain these new connected families
Cable will continue to lead the way
21st
century-network – already delivered
Higher speeds and new services launched and on trial now
Increasing popularity of the triple play
– UK Cable players provide triple play already
– Others are aiming to follow: Sky, Wanadoo, BT
31. Dowshan Humzah – 29th
June 2006
Thank you
Dowshan Humzah
Director, Strategy and Planning - Products
Tel: +44 (0)7976 202595