Dr Jebamalai Vinanchiarachi

1. Dr Jebamalai Vinanchiarachi
Former Principal Adviser to the Director General
United Nations Industrial Development Organization
Austria
@jvinanchiarachi
Post Covid-19:
Business Opportunities and the New Normal

2. •Economic Recession: Significant decline in economic
activities for two consecutive quarters (6 months)
•Economic Depression: Dramatic decline in economic
activities for a few years
•Economic Paralysis: Total inactivity of major productive and
service activities triggered by a crisis. This time, economic
paralysis is caused by a new deadly virus.
The Magnitude of the Great Global Economic Paralysis

3. Evidence of the Great Global Economic Paralysis
Triggered by COVID-19 and the Great Lockdown
• Dramatic decline in economic activities
• Significant decline in output
• Steep rise in unemployment
• Falling exports
• Falling imports
• Aircrafts being grounded
• Vehicles being off the road
• Firms in the cremation grounds and intensive care units
• Producers, distributors and consumers locked in

4. Each Crisis as an Opportunity
• 1930 The Great Depression > Lack of effective demand
• 1973 First Oil Shock > Predictions went wrong
• East Asian Financial Crisis > Short-term lending for imports of inputs for export
disappeared
• 2000 Dot.Com Downturn > Unrealistic speculation
• 2008-2009 Financial Crisis > The private sector misbehaved, and the over belief on
free play of market forces disappeared
• 2020 Global Economic Paralysis > Dual crisis making the global economy grinding to
a halt

5. Implications of Past Interventions for the Current Crisis
The Great Depression of 1930s: Vulnerable segments of population,
worst affected, should be armed with money to command goods and
services. Universal Basic Income has a role to play during this
exceptional period.
The First Oil Shock: Many countries emerged as NICs and huge
investment on alternate sources of energy and energy efficiency

6. Implications (cont.)
• The East Asian financial crisis: Government support to enterprises
• The 2000 crisis: Grossly exaggerated stock prices not akin to reality
• The 2007-08 crisis: Bailout justified
• The current crisis: Totally different from other crises, calling for different set
interventions to save lives, livelihoods and new lifestyle.

7. • In the past, interventions stimulated investment and consumption to
recover
• Now, the priority focus is on stimulating Research and Innovation to
save life, livelihoods, and lifestyle
The Big Difference

8. Post COVID-19 and Possible Business Opportunities
V-shaped
recovery
U-shaped
recovery
W-shaped
recovery
COVID-19 curve
flattened by 18th May;
normal viable economy
sustained by enhanced
capacity at the district
level to avoid recurrence
and spreading
Takes longer than V-
shaped underpinned by
struggle to manage the
transition from recession
and recovery; GDP
growth commences only
after several quarters
Possible recurrence of
COVID- 19, leading to
intermittent social
distancing, isolation and
lockdown running
parallel with recovery-
related interventions.

9. The New Normal
• New style of living
• New mode of working
• New patterns of production
• New means of selling products and services
• Technological marvels to play the lead role

10. Key Determinants
Enhanced adaptive capabilities and skills to use modern
technology and to commercialize new knowledge in the
emerging open innovation and value creation network
in virtual world

11. Upcoming creative destruction triggered by
disruptive technologies, which will enable us to
live with the new normal.

12. Sunrise and Sunset Productive and Service Activities
SUNSET SUNRISE
• Travel
• Tourism
• Automobile
• Entertainment
• Logistics
• Public transportation
• Luxury products
• Real estates
• Oil and gas
• Construction
• Retail
• Events and conferences
• Digital products
• Structured knowledge
• Gig economy paying per task
• Online coaching and teaching
• Alternate energy
• Insurance
• Alternate medicines and home gardening
• Gaming
• Healthcare
• Affiliate marketing
• Network marketing
• Data science
• Disruptive technologies
AND
• Traditional values and systems which
signify the true purpose of life

13. Post COVID-19 Opportunities
• Innovation and ideation to create startups that generate employment
• WFH opportunities
• Technology opportunities in education, healthcare, mice (meetings,
incentives, conferences and exhibitions)
• Innovations in transportation with social distancing
• Industry 4.0 – technology driven industrial production to maintain social
distancing in production
• New methods of e-commerce and logistics (e.g. drones)

14. Contact
Twitter: @jvinanachiarachi