Global Challenges 2013
•Download as PPT, PDF•
1 like•1,396 views
Global Challenges in International Political Analysis 2013
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (19)
Similar to Global Challenges 2013
Similar to Global Challenges 2013 (20)
More from Olga Gil, PhD (olgagil@olgagil.es)
More from Olga Gil, PhD (olgagil@olgagil.es) (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Global Challenges 2013
- 1. International Political Analysis Global Challenges and Turning Points @OlgaG 2013 +OlgaGil olgagil@olgagil.es
- 2. Bio The author Olga Gil, Ph.D @olgag http://www.linkedin.com/in/olgagil
- 3. • Global Economic Trends • Emerging Market Multinationals • Dictatorship, Democracy, failed States • New Demography: aging, migration, obesity • Inequality and Poverty • Sustainability • Global Powers • Uncertainty and Complexity •Life expectancy @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 4. Turning points “veritable game changers, inflexions that transform human societies” Mauro Guillén and Emilio Ontiveros A new set of constrains and opportunities The rise of emerging economies, population aging, urbanization, governmental gridlock and breakdown of state authority, deepening inequalities, environmental degradation and the reconfiguration of global power relationships @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 5. Global Economy out of Balance @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 6. Global Economy out of Balance • Most large economies -except Germany and Japan- are running trade deficits • Most emerging economies are running trade surpluses • Emerging economies own 2/3 of foreign exchange reserves and accumulate two billion dollars each day • After two decades of intense economic growth, emerging economies represent half of global economic activity • Emerging economies are providing the financing for the large current account deficits in the high-income countries @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 7. Emerging market multinationals expanding like wildfire @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints Photo: Callison Global en Flickr: http://www.flickr.com/photos/67615472@N08/7983925792/
- 8. Emerging market multinationals expanding like wildfire In 2010 they represent • 25 per cent of the largest 500 companies in the world • 29 per cent of the number of multinational firms • 41 per cent of new foreign direct investment flows over the previous five years @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 9. Demographic conditions change fast @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/naromeel/4697526793/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/richardharrod/475546644/
- 10. Demographic conditions change fast • Japan and several Western countries have inverted age pyramids with more people over 60 than below 20 • More people live in cities than in the countryside • Greater numbers suffer from obesity (1 Bn) than from hunger (800 million) @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 11. Uncertain political landscape @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 12. Uncertain political landscape • Chaos and anarchy in many parts of the world • From the first time since World War II more countries are affected from state failure than ruled by dictators (nearly 50 countries including Chad, Congo, India, Iraq, Mexico...) • General decline in capacity and legitimacy of the state @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 13. Economic disparity • Income inequality across countries has decreased since 2000 due to the rise of emerging economies • But inequality within countries increases, posing problems to developed and developing countries alike • Growing lack of competitiveness of rich-country firms relative to emerging market multinationals @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 14. Quest for Sustainability • Growth in emerging economies hand in hand with environmental degradation • Energy, green production, consumption of goods and services are targets • Technology and behavioral change as solutions? • Water and food scarcity @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 15. The Challenge The world needs new approaches to global governance to deal with complexity, uncertainty and the interconnecteness of the global economy @Olga Golgagil@olgagil.es GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
- 16. XXI Century Different kind of globalization Emerging economies and many poor countries are increasingly participants in a more intercomented global economic system World Turning Points Technology Africa 16 million people with mobiles by 2000 500 million and 70% of the population by 2010 LATAM has reached levels of mobile phone use compared to Europe
- 17. XXI Century Different kind of globalization Emerging economies and many poor countries participants in a more interconnected global economic system The rise of the BRICKs and the MINTs BRICKs Brazil, Russia, India, China MINTs Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, South Africa During the first decade of the XXI century emerging economies grew at an average annual rate of 8-9 per cent compared to 2-3 per cent for most developed economies World Turning Points
- 18. XXI Century The rise of the BRICKs and the MINTs GDP share OCDE countries versus non OCDE (1990-2030) World Turning Points
- 19. XXI Century The most complex crisis in history? Putting public finances to the test The global financial crisis starting in 2007 as a consecuence “of the global economy” –complex web of linkages between economic and financial activity (Guillén and Suarez 2010) The financial debacle: The 2008 perfect storm Size of global integration of finantial operators Risk management practices Failures of finantial regulators Dubioud workings of rating agencies The original liquidity crisis mutated into a general crisis of confidence affecting bank lending, corporate investment, and job creation World Turning Points
- 20. XXI Century Crisis Challenging assumptions underpining growth From the Second World War: • The role of fiscal and monetary policy • The welfare state • International monetary cooperation • Shook assumptions about how actors make economic decisions: “animal spirits” (Akerlof & Schiller 2010) World Turning Points
- 21. XXI Century GDP Decline in OCDE countries All OCDE countries suffered from at least two quarters of economic decline. The crisis affects rich countries, deeply in debt and fearing for the stability of their currencies. World Turning Points
- 22. XXI Century Crisis Particularly severe: The Crisis in Europe Putting at risks the accomplishments of European integration: • The monetary union created in 1999 • Indicators of public finances in Europe are no worse than for the US or Japan • However, soaring risk premiums for Euro Bonds means that investors does not like the lack of fiscal union The original liquidity crisis mutated into a general crisis of confidence affecting bank lending, corporate investment, and job creation World Turning Points
- 23. XXI Century Crisis Resilience of emerging economies Despite the suffering of sharp and temporary decline in commodity prices… • Low levels of external debt • Accumulation of foreign reserves: China 3.2 trillion dollars Saudi Arabia 517 billion Russia 473 billion Brazil 348 billion India 280 billion Emerging economies become part of the solution to the crisis providing capital to rich economies: the relatively poor funding the rich World Turning Points
- 24. XXI Century Crisis Emerging economies: The relatively poor funding the rich, and increasing their influence and bargaining power – as they see their share of global production to increase. World Turning Points
- 25. XXI Century Crisis Resilience of emerged economies Public debt figures in advanced and emerging economies World Turning Points
- 26. XXI Century Crisis Fears • FDI and Mergers and adquisitions by multinationals declining sharply • Global protecionism: tariffs or currency wars, and one of the main contributors to the Great Depression • Relative undervaluation of the renminbi to the dollar, representing a trade barrier given China trade surplus World Turning Points
- 27. XXI Century Crisis Changes: global economic power Acceleration of changes in the distribution of global economic and financial power • Uncertainty • Volatility in financial markets • Race to control natural and energy resources Before 2020 projections indicate that China will be the largest economy, followed by US, India, Brazil and Japan, with no European economy ranking in the world top 5 World Turning Points
- 28. XXI Century Crisis Europe and the United States Erosion of the growth potential of many advanced economies • Persistent high unemployment : young and older groups • Heavy debt burden: tax increases and reduction in government services • Years of financial deleveraging and capital expenses as banks clean balance sheets • US 100 years dominance in R&D jeopardized: hegemony on the decline China and India educate more than 700.000 engineers annually. In the wind power high tech field four of the 10 largest turbine manufacturers are chineese, one Indian World Turning Points
- 29. XXI Century Crisis Declining European exports Yet not too bad for Spain: suffers the smallest drop among the six major European vendors (Germany, Holland, France, Italy, Belgium) World Turning Points France 3,85% to 3,14 % 6th Italy 3,4% to 2,76 % from 6th to 9th Germany from 1sr to 3rd Spain 1,76% to 1,70 % (-9 %) World exports ranking 2008 -2012 World Trade Organization 2013 Lower labor costs, productivity gains, labor adjustment, more flexible working conditions and lower absenteeism
- 30. XXI Century Crisis Some Spanish Strengths Export base growth and diversification (2008-2012) Growth of the export base 2008 101.400 export firms 2012 136.000 export firms Geographic diversification 2008 68% of exports to the euro zone 2012 55% of exports to the euro zone World Turning Points
- 31. XXI Century Crisis Emerging markets export growth World Turning Points South Korea 2,63 % to 3,02 % from 12 to 7th China 8,9 % to 11 % from 2 to 1st Saudi Arabia 2,14 % Tailand 1,3 % World exports ranking 2008 -2012 World Trade Organization 2013
- 32. XXI Century OutlookWorld Turning Points Opportunities http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_at_state.html
- 33. XXI Century OutlookWorld Turning Points Opportunities http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_at_state.html Visual graph: http://tinyurl.com/cdx9ywq
- 34. XXI Century OutlookWorld Turning Points China, EU, India, USA http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_at_state.html Graph:
- 35. XXI Century OutlookWorld Turning Points “Stop calling them developing countries” http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_at_state.html Visual graph: http://tinyurl.com/cdx9ywq Hans Rosling
- 37. Olga Gil, Ph.D. olgagil@olgagil.es @olgag thank you very much #EOI Thank you Your questions
- 38. Guillén, Mauro, and Ontiveros, Emilio. 2012. Global Turning Points. . New York. Cambridge University Press Krastev, Ivan. Can democracy exist without trust?. TED Talk [http://www.ted.com/talks/ivan_krastev_can_democracy_exist_without_trust.ht ml] Rosling, Hans. 2009. Let my data set change your mind set. http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_at_state.html Créditos imágenes y fotografía, referenciados en cada foto, Olga Gil. YouTube y también en: http://www.flickr.com/photos/shutterbri/4843301063/ References