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13/11/13	
  
1	
  
The Lean Toolkit - Value Stream
Mapping and Problem Solving
Improvement Strategies and Execution
Hanno Jarvet
www.jarvet.com
Agenda
•  Defining a Value Stream
–  Identifying a suitable process(es)
–  Creating a current state Value Stream Map
–  Creating a future state Value Stream Map
•  Creating an action plan
–  Planning and execution (Deming Cycle: Plan, Do,
Check, Act)
–  Identifying root causes of problems
–  Problem solving with an A3 template
www.jarvet.com
Expected results
After the session the participants are better able to:
• improve efficiency
•  build transparency
•  increase the quality of the output and customer
satisfaction
•  set strategies for future improvements
•  create accountabilities
www.jarvet.com
What is Lean?
•  Deliver continually increasing customer
value
– Expending continually decreasing effort
– By leveraging the time and energy of bright,
creative workers
Project	
  noise	
  level	
  
Simple	
  
Complex	
  
Anarchy	
  
Com
plicated	
  
Technology	
  
Requirements	
  
Far	
  from	
  
Agreement	
  
Close	
  to	
  
Agreement	
  
Close	
  to	
  
Certainty	
  
Far	
  from	
  
Certainty	
  
Source:	
  Strategic	
  Management	
  and	
  
Organiza0onal	
  Dynamics	
  by	
  Ralph	
  Stacey	
  
in	
  Agile	
  So7ware	
  Development	
  with	
  
Scrum	
  by	
  Ken	
  Schwaber	
  and	
  Mike	
  Beedle.	
  
Pilt:	
  Mountain	
  Goat	
  SoKware	
  	
   www.jarvet.com
What Is Value?
•  A capability provided to a customer
– of the highest quality
– at the right time
– at an appropriate price
as defined by the customer.
"Value" is what the customer is buying
13/11/13	
  
2	
  
www.jarvet.com
Eliminate Waste
Stop doing things customers don’t value!
Value is…
Seen through the eyes of those who pay for, use,
support, or derive value from our systems.
Waste is…
Anything that depletes resources of time, effort,
space, or money
www.jarvet.com
Stop making customers unhappy
Value Demand
–  Demand for work that adds value from a customer
perspective
–  The Goal: Deliver products and services that will
delight Customers
Failure Demand
–  Demand on the resources caused by your failures.
Eg. Support Calls
–  The Goal: Eliminate Failure Demand. Meanwhile
respond as fast as possible.
What creates value?
(SIPOC) Suppliers Input Process Output Customers
•  Product and service design
•  Product development
•  Service development
•  Customer Service and sales
•  Product and service delivery
•  Customer advisory/training
after delivery
•  Routine client “maintenance”
•  Most management activities
•  Customer surveys
•  Systems and process design
•  HR
•  Office and production
facilities cleaning and
maintenance
•  Finance / bookkeeping /
Accounting
•  Purchasing /Procurement
•  Administration
•  Training
•  Management information
systems
•  Service / Production Planning
www.jarvet.com
The Original 7 Wastes
•  Transport
–  moving products that are not actually required to perform the processing
•  Inventory
–  all components, work in process and finished product not being processed
•  Motion
–  people or equipment moving or walking more than is required to perform the
processing
•  Waiting
–  waiting for the next production step
•  Overproduction
–  production ahead of demand
•  Over Processing
–  resulting from poor tool or product design creating activity
•  Defects
–  the effort involved in inspecting for and fixing defects
www.jarvet.com
SoKware	
  Development	
  7	
  	
  
•  ParOally	
  Done	
  Work	
  
•  Extra	
  Processes	
  
•  Extra	
  Features	
  
•  Handoffs	
  
•  Delays	
  
•  Task	
  Switching	
  
•  Defects	
  
www.jarvet.com
If	
  Each	
  Handoff	
  Leaves	
  50%	
  Behind	
  
•	
  25%	
  of	
  knowledge	
  leK	
  aKer	
  2	
  handoffs	
  
•	
  12%	
  of	
  knowledge	
  leK	
  aKer	
  3	
  handoffs	
  
•	
  6%	
  of	
  knowledge	
  leK	
  aKer	
  4	
  handoffs	
  
•	
  3%	
  of	
  knowledge	
  leK	
  aKer	
  5	
  handoffs	
  
13/11/13	
  
3	
  
www.jarvet.com
Apply Five Simple Principles
•  Specify value from the standpoint of end
customer
•  Identify the value stream for each
product family
•  Make the product flow
•  So the customer can pull
•  As you manage toward perfection
www.jarvet.com
What is the Value that Flows?
•  Specify value from the standpoint of the end
customer
•  Ask how your current products and processes
disappoint your customer’s value expectation:
–  price?
–  quality?
–  reliable delivery?
–  rapid response to changing needs?
–  ???
www.jarvet.com
What Flows?
•  "ITEMS" flow through a value stream
– In manufacturing, materials are the items
– In design & development, designs are the items
– In service, external customer needs are the items
– In admin., internal customer needs are the items
www.jarvet.com
Value Stream Mapping Purpose
•  Provide optimum value to the customer
through a complete value creation process
with minimum waste in:
– Design (concept to customer)
– Build (order to delivery)
– Sustain (in-use through life cycle to service)
Value Stream Mapping (VSM): Is a special type of flow
chart that uses symbols known as "the language of Lean"
to depict and improve the flow of inventory and
information.
Value Stream Map
Thanks to: Henrik Kniberg, of
	
  	
  Crisp, Stockholm
	
  Used with Permission
Write
	
  	
  up
	
  Idea
Concept
	
  presen-
	
  	
  tation
	
  Lisa
assigns
people
Graphics
	
  design
Sound
design
Develop-
	
  ment
Integrate
& deploy
Game backlog
	
  
	
  
	
  8
Design-ready
	
  games
	
  
	
   	
  15
Product-ready
	
  games
	
  
	
   	
  12
3 m value added time
	
  25 m cycle time
	
  Process
= 12% cycle
	
  efficiency
Games out of date
⇒ Missed market windows
⇒ Demotivated teams
⇒ Overhead costs
2d 1m
4h
6m 1w 6m 6m
1m 3w
(Total 3m)
3w2h 1d
2m
1m
	
  Waste
Value
	
  What would you do?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Copyright©2010 Poppendieck.LLC
www.jarvet.com
13/11/13	
  
4	
  
www.jarvet.com
Different Organizations
High Reliability Organizations
•  Far less than their fair share of accidents.
•  Failure is a learning opportunity.
•  So small failures are deeply investigated and corrected.
•  Noise is not tolerated.
Low reliability Organizations
•  Far more than their fair share of major accidents.
•  Failure is not an option. So failures are hidden.
•  Noise is ignored.
www.jarvet.com
Excellence
Excellence is the product of good people
and good systems. (Don Reinertsen)
Good people:
– Have the capability and experience to do
their work well.
– Have a disciplined approach to work
– Don’t need to be tightly managed
– Fulfill their commitments
www.jarvet.com
Seeing Problems is Easy
…Caring about them is not
Everybody sees symptoms
–  And ignores them
–  Or complains about them
–  And works around them and goes on
Problem SOLVING organizations
–  Look for symptoms
–  Use PDCA to address the underlying problem and find
permanent remedies
–  Even for small problems
How do you compete against an organization where
everyone is a problem solver???
www.jarvet.com
High Velocity Organizations
Improve & adapt faster than their competitors
1. Use well defined team work processes designed to
reveal failure rapidly.
2. Whenever failure occurs, the team swarms the
problem close in space and time to the event.
3. Teams are expected to share what they learn with
the rest of the organization
4. The primary responsibility of leaders and managers:
make sure 1, 2, & 3 happen. (not to deliver results)
Compare: “I thought I was a great problem solver, but I
have been solving the same problem for 20 years!”
www.jarvet.com
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Most of the problems we encounter (perhaps 90%) are
the result of multiple influences, they generally can not
be attributed to a single cause. Assigning blame for a
problem to the last person involved is worse than
counterproductive, it will probably make a bad
situation worse.
www.jarvet.com
•  Safe Flying
– 1935: Major Ployer Hill was killed while
testing a new plane
– Forgot to release new locking on elevator
and rudder controls
– Conclusion: New planes are too complex to
fly.
– Group of test pilots devised a solution:
Good People Make Mistakes
Good Systems Prevent Mistakes
13/11/13	
  
5	
  
www.jarvet.com
Problem Solving A3
For boundary-spanning problems
Develop a Consensus for action
–  Boundary –spanning communication
•  30 second glance, 10 minutes to read
–  Pull based authority
•  Agreement of those affected by the change
–  Owner Responsibility
•  Team collaboration
–  Cautions
•  Define the problem carefully
•  Find REAL root cause
•  Manager as mentor
Sorbek & Smalley: Understanding A3
Thinking
The Deming Cycle
Typical PDCA
•  Plan quickly
–  Address Symptoms
•  Do immediately
–  Jump to conclusions
•  Check roughly
–  Act pretty much the way
you did before
High Velocity Organization
PDCA
•  Plan deeply
–  Discuss actual situation and
target with everyone
affected
–  Really understand/model
the problem and its root
cause
•  Do many quick experiments
–  Validate your thinking
–  Check implications carefully
•  Act systematically
–  Update and deploy
standards and checklist
disciplines
www.jarvet.com
Improvement Kata
1.  Visualize Perfection
2.  Have a first hand grasp of the situation
3.  Define a target condition on the way to
perfection (strive to move step by step to
target)
4.  As obstacles are encountered, they are
systematically understood and overcome
(You do this until you retire or die. Whichever comes first. ;) )
www.jarvet.com
Coaching Kata
•  Everyone has a mentor
•  The mentor
– Knows the details
– Asks questions
– Teaches the improvement kata
– Focuses on learning
•  Not results
•  We build people before we build cars. (Toyota)
www.jarvet.com
Theme and Background –
Look Very Carefully
•  Theme is A3 Title
–  Identifies relevance
–  Revised as situation understanding improves
•  Background identifies problems impact
–  Why this problem matters
•  Impact of problem on organization
•  Specific and Quantitative –use graphs, tables, etc.
–  People affected understand, agree on, and care
•  10 second rule
–  Reader can assess relevance of A3 within 10
seconds
13/11/13	
  
6	
  
www.jarvet.com
Current Condition –
Ask what we already know
•  Specific, detailed, quantitative, concise
–  Tables, graphs, histograms, value-stream maps, diagrams
–  Countermeasures (Experiments)
–  Highlight exactly where problem occurs
–  Baseline to compare to metrics after countermeasures
are applied
•  Engage everyone affected by or causing symptoms
–  Build Consensus on what is
•  Symptoms / Undesirable Effects everyone can see
•  Foundation of authority to experiment with countermeasures
•  Update as understanding improves
www.jarvet.com
Goal –Next Target Condition
Model what we expect
•  What baseline change is wanted?
–  What does perfect look like?
–  What does the organization need?
•  Mentor ensures that the owner has both
–  Plausible Hypothesis
•  Based on best available model/understanding of how
the system should work
–  Consensus among stakeholders
•  Target is attainable and desirable
•  Update as root cause and countermeasures
developed
www.jarvet.com
Root Cause –
Model Cause & Effect
•  Identify underlying problem(s) causing symptoms
–  Root cause is typically faulty thinking or assumptions
•  Addressing the root cause(s) improves all levels of
symptoms/undesirable effects/visible damage.
•  Build consensus among stakeholders
–  Broad agreement on Cause & Effect network
–  Reflect best current knowledge about how things work
•  Some techniques:
•  Some techniques:
–  5 Whys -track down the
–  Ishikawa (fishbone) diagram
–  Cause-effect diagram
–  Current Reality Tree
www.jarvet.com
Propose Countermeasures –
DO [Many Experiments]
•  Identify countermeasures for each candidate root
cause
–  Experiments expected to mitigate underlying
problem
–  Suggested by people involved or A3 owner
•  Assess each countermeasure
–  Discuss with Stakeholders affected
–  Identify expected changes in meaningful measures
from each countermeasure
–  Select those with most promise
•  (DO) Try each selected countermeasure to get
evidence for their effectiveness
www.jarvet.com
Results & Follow-up –
Check& Act: Know WHY, not just know how!
•  For each countermeasure implemented
–  What actually happened
•  If different than expected,
–  Why?
–  Does the model you used correctly represent what
happens?
–  How do the results improve your knowledge of how
to think about your work?
•  What will you monitor to know that the problem
remains “solved”?
•  What additional problems are revealed after the
countermeasures are in place?
www.jarvet.com
Learning
Results and Follow-up
•  The reliable learning comes from checking the results
of your experiments.
–  If the hypotheses in your root-cause analysis are correct,
your countermeasures should make the situation better
by the amount you expected.
–  If they do not, either your model is wrong or the
countermeasure is not correct or sufficient to address the
root-cause and you have to try again.
•  Learning only has value if it changes the way you act
–  Improved workflow, better method, better skills, needed
checklist item, better standards, etc.
–  This is the ACT part or PDCA, change the way you do this
kind of work.
13/11/13	
  
7	
  
www.jarvet.com
Scopes of A3s
Strategic	
  	
  
(6-­‐12	
  months)	
  
System	
  
(1	
  week	
  –	
  6	
  months)	
  
Process	
  
(1	
  week)	
  
www.jarvet.com
Ishikawa or Fishbone Diagram
Root Cause Analysis
Root Cause Analysis

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Hanno Jarvet - The Lean Toolkit – Value Stream Mapping and Problem Solving

  • 1. 13/11/13   1   The Lean Toolkit - Value Stream Mapping and Problem Solving Improvement Strategies and Execution Hanno Jarvet www.jarvet.com Agenda •  Defining a Value Stream –  Identifying a suitable process(es) –  Creating a current state Value Stream Map –  Creating a future state Value Stream Map •  Creating an action plan –  Planning and execution (Deming Cycle: Plan, Do, Check, Act) –  Identifying root causes of problems –  Problem solving with an A3 template www.jarvet.com Expected results After the session the participants are better able to: • improve efficiency •  build transparency •  increase the quality of the output and customer satisfaction •  set strategies for future improvements •  create accountabilities www.jarvet.com What is Lean? •  Deliver continually increasing customer value – Expending continually decreasing effort – By leveraging the time and energy of bright, creative workers Project  noise  level   Simple   Complex   Anarchy   Com plicated   Technology   Requirements   Far  from   Agreement   Close  to   Agreement   Close  to   Certainty   Far  from   Certainty   Source:  Strategic  Management  and   Organiza0onal  Dynamics  by  Ralph  Stacey   in  Agile  So7ware  Development  with   Scrum  by  Ken  Schwaber  and  Mike  Beedle.   Pilt:  Mountain  Goat  SoKware     www.jarvet.com What Is Value? •  A capability provided to a customer – of the highest quality – at the right time – at an appropriate price as defined by the customer. "Value" is what the customer is buying
  • 2. 13/11/13   2   www.jarvet.com Eliminate Waste Stop doing things customers don’t value! Value is… Seen through the eyes of those who pay for, use, support, or derive value from our systems. Waste is… Anything that depletes resources of time, effort, space, or money www.jarvet.com Stop making customers unhappy Value Demand –  Demand for work that adds value from a customer perspective –  The Goal: Deliver products and services that will delight Customers Failure Demand –  Demand on the resources caused by your failures. Eg. Support Calls –  The Goal: Eliminate Failure Demand. Meanwhile respond as fast as possible. What creates value? (SIPOC) Suppliers Input Process Output Customers •  Product and service design •  Product development •  Service development •  Customer Service and sales •  Product and service delivery •  Customer advisory/training after delivery •  Routine client “maintenance” •  Most management activities •  Customer surveys •  Systems and process design •  HR •  Office and production facilities cleaning and maintenance •  Finance / bookkeeping / Accounting •  Purchasing /Procurement •  Administration •  Training •  Management information systems •  Service / Production Planning www.jarvet.com The Original 7 Wastes •  Transport –  moving products that are not actually required to perform the processing •  Inventory –  all components, work in process and finished product not being processed •  Motion –  people or equipment moving or walking more than is required to perform the processing •  Waiting –  waiting for the next production step •  Overproduction –  production ahead of demand •  Over Processing –  resulting from poor tool or product design creating activity •  Defects –  the effort involved in inspecting for and fixing defects www.jarvet.com SoKware  Development  7     •  ParOally  Done  Work   •  Extra  Processes   •  Extra  Features   •  Handoffs   •  Delays   •  Task  Switching   •  Defects   www.jarvet.com If  Each  Handoff  Leaves  50%  Behind   •  25%  of  knowledge  leK  aKer  2  handoffs   •  12%  of  knowledge  leK  aKer  3  handoffs   •  6%  of  knowledge  leK  aKer  4  handoffs   •  3%  of  knowledge  leK  aKer  5  handoffs  
  • 3. 13/11/13   3   www.jarvet.com Apply Five Simple Principles •  Specify value from the standpoint of end customer •  Identify the value stream for each product family •  Make the product flow •  So the customer can pull •  As you manage toward perfection www.jarvet.com What is the Value that Flows? •  Specify value from the standpoint of the end customer •  Ask how your current products and processes disappoint your customer’s value expectation: –  price? –  quality? –  reliable delivery? –  rapid response to changing needs? –  ??? www.jarvet.com What Flows? •  "ITEMS" flow through a value stream – In manufacturing, materials are the items – In design & development, designs are the items – In service, external customer needs are the items – In admin., internal customer needs are the items www.jarvet.com Value Stream Mapping Purpose •  Provide optimum value to the customer through a complete value creation process with minimum waste in: – Design (concept to customer) – Build (order to delivery) – Sustain (in-use through life cycle to service) Value Stream Mapping (VSM): Is a special type of flow chart that uses symbols known as "the language of Lean" to depict and improve the flow of inventory and information. Value Stream Map Thanks to: Henrik Kniberg, of    Crisp, Stockholm  Used with Permission Write    up  Idea Concept  presen-    tation  Lisa assigns people Graphics  design Sound design Develop-  ment Integrate & deploy Game backlog      8 Design-ready  games      15 Product-ready  games      12 3 m value added time  25 m cycle time  Process = 12% cycle  efficiency Games out of date ⇒ Missed market windows ⇒ Demotivated teams ⇒ Overhead costs 2d 1m 4h 6m 1w 6m 6m 1m 3w (Total 3m) 3w2h 1d 2m 1m  Waste Value  What would you do?         Copyright©2010 Poppendieck.LLC www.jarvet.com
  • 4. 13/11/13   4   www.jarvet.com Different Organizations High Reliability Organizations •  Far less than their fair share of accidents. •  Failure is a learning opportunity. •  So small failures are deeply investigated and corrected. •  Noise is not tolerated. Low reliability Organizations •  Far more than their fair share of major accidents. •  Failure is not an option. So failures are hidden. •  Noise is ignored. www.jarvet.com Excellence Excellence is the product of good people and good systems. (Don Reinertsen) Good people: – Have the capability and experience to do their work well. – Have a disciplined approach to work – Don’t need to be tightly managed – Fulfill their commitments www.jarvet.com Seeing Problems is Easy …Caring about them is not Everybody sees symptoms –  And ignores them –  Or complains about them –  And works around them and goes on Problem SOLVING organizations –  Look for symptoms –  Use PDCA to address the underlying problem and find permanent remedies –  Even for small problems How do you compete against an organization where everyone is a problem solver??? www.jarvet.com High Velocity Organizations Improve & adapt faster than their competitors 1. Use well defined team work processes designed to reveal failure rapidly. 2. Whenever failure occurs, the team swarms the problem close in space and time to the event. 3. Teams are expected to share what they learn with the rest of the organization 4. The primary responsibility of leaders and managers: make sure 1, 2, & 3 happen. (not to deliver results) Compare: “I thought I was a great problem solver, but I have been solving the same problem for 20 years!” www.jarvet.com Dr. W. Edwards Deming Most of the problems we encounter (perhaps 90%) are the result of multiple influences, they generally can not be attributed to a single cause. Assigning blame for a problem to the last person involved is worse than counterproductive, it will probably make a bad situation worse. www.jarvet.com •  Safe Flying – 1935: Major Ployer Hill was killed while testing a new plane – Forgot to release new locking on elevator and rudder controls – Conclusion: New planes are too complex to fly. – Group of test pilots devised a solution: Good People Make Mistakes Good Systems Prevent Mistakes
  • 5. 13/11/13   5   www.jarvet.com Problem Solving A3 For boundary-spanning problems Develop a Consensus for action –  Boundary –spanning communication •  30 second glance, 10 minutes to read –  Pull based authority •  Agreement of those affected by the change –  Owner Responsibility •  Team collaboration –  Cautions •  Define the problem carefully •  Find REAL root cause •  Manager as mentor Sorbek & Smalley: Understanding A3 Thinking The Deming Cycle Typical PDCA •  Plan quickly –  Address Symptoms •  Do immediately –  Jump to conclusions •  Check roughly –  Act pretty much the way you did before High Velocity Organization PDCA •  Plan deeply –  Discuss actual situation and target with everyone affected –  Really understand/model the problem and its root cause •  Do many quick experiments –  Validate your thinking –  Check implications carefully •  Act systematically –  Update and deploy standards and checklist disciplines www.jarvet.com Improvement Kata 1.  Visualize Perfection 2.  Have a first hand grasp of the situation 3.  Define a target condition on the way to perfection (strive to move step by step to target) 4.  As obstacles are encountered, they are systematically understood and overcome (You do this until you retire or die. Whichever comes first. ;) ) www.jarvet.com Coaching Kata •  Everyone has a mentor •  The mentor – Knows the details – Asks questions – Teaches the improvement kata – Focuses on learning •  Not results •  We build people before we build cars. (Toyota) www.jarvet.com Theme and Background – Look Very Carefully •  Theme is A3 Title –  Identifies relevance –  Revised as situation understanding improves •  Background identifies problems impact –  Why this problem matters •  Impact of problem on organization •  Specific and Quantitative –use graphs, tables, etc. –  People affected understand, agree on, and care •  10 second rule –  Reader can assess relevance of A3 within 10 seconds
  • 6. 13/11/13   6   www.jarvet.com Current Condition – Ask what we already know •  Specific, detailed, quantitative, concise –  Tables, graphs, histograms, value-stream maps, diagrams –  Countermeasures (Experiments) –  Highlight exactly where problem occurs –  Baseline to compare to metrics after countermeasures are applied •  Engage everyone affected by or causing symptoms –  Build Consensus on what is •  Symptoms / Undesirable Effects everyone can see •  Foundation of authority to experiment with countermeasures •  Update as understanding improves www.jarvet.com Goal –Next Target Condition Model what we expect •  What baseline change is wanted? –  What does perfect look like? –  What does the organization need? •  Mentor ensures that the owner has both –  Plausible Hypothesis •  Based on best available model/understanding of how the system should work –  Consensus among stakeholders •  Target is attainable and desirable •  Update as root cause and countermeasures developed www.jarvet.com Root Cause – Model Cause & Effect •  Identify underlying problem(s) causing symptoms –  Root cause is typically faulty thinking or assumptions •  Addressing the root cause(s) improves all levels of symptoms/undesirable effects/visible damage. •  Build consensus among stakeholders –  Broad agreement on Cause & Effect network –  Reflect best current knowledge about how things work •  Some techniques: •  Some techniques: –  5 Whys -track down the –  Ishikawa (fishbone) diagram –  Cause-effect diagram –  Current Reality Tree www.jarvet.com Propose Countermeasures – DO [Many Experiments] •  Identify countermeasures for each candidate root cause –  Experiments expected to mitigate underlying problem –  Suggested by people involved or A3 owner •  Assess each countermeasure –  Discuss with Stakeholders affected –  Identify expected changes in meaningful measures from each countermeasure –  Select those with most promise •  (DO) Try each selected countermeasure to get evidence for their effectiveness www.jarvet.com Results & Follow-up – Check& Act: Know WHY, not just know how! •  For each countermeasure implemented –  What actually happened •  If different than expected, –  Why? –  Does the model you used correctly represent what happens? –  How do the results improve your knowledge of how to think about your work? •  What will you monitor to know that the problem remains “solved”? •  What additional problems are revealed after the countermeasures are in place? www.jarvet.com Learning Results and Follow-up •  The reliable learning comes from checking the results of your experiments. –  If the hypotheses in your root-cause analysis are correct, your countermeasures should make the situation better by the amount you expected. –  If they do not, either your model is wrong or the countermeasure is not correct or sufficient to address the root-cause and you have to try again. •  Learning only has value if it changes the way you act –  Improved workflow, better method, better skills, needed checklist item, better standards, etc. –  This is the ACT part or PDCA, change the way you do this kind of work.
  • 7. 13/11/13   7   www.jarvet.com Scopes of A3s Strategic     (6-­‐12  months)   System   (1  week  –  6  months)   Process   (1  week)   www.jarvet.com Ishikawa or Fishbone Diagram Root Cause Analysis Root Cause Analysis