Presentation by Simone De Kleermaeker (Deltares) at the Seminar Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2023. Wednesday, 22 February 2023, Singapore.

1. Acknowledgements:
• Shoni Maguire, Chris Leahy, Luke Balasingham, Mark Menzel, Mark Dyall
(Australian Climate Service / Bureau of Meteorology)
• Tim Leijnse, Matthijs Lemans, Mark Hegnauer, Nena Vandebroek (Deltares)
• Yenory Morales, Chris Charles, Warwick Bishop (Water Technology)
• Cameron Druery (Worley - waterRIDE)
Developing a real-time data
and modeling framework for
operational flood inundation
forecasting in Australia
DSD-SEA 2023 – Simone De Kleermaeker

2. Content
• Customer request for flood intelligence
• FliFS PoC
Flood inundation Forecasting System, Proof of Concept
− Real Time data handling and multi model approach (Delft-FEWS)
− Settlement wide flood mapping (waterRIDE)
− State wide gridded rainfall-runoff modelling (wflow)
− State wide flood inundation modelling (SFINCS)
− Dissemination of results
• FliFS in action
• Lessons learned and next steps
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Maitland
Camden, Western Sydney

3. Customer Request
• National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) provided an initial request for a Flood
Intelligence Service
• Such a service allows the Australian Government to make informed decisions before, during
and after flood events on a national scale
− Before and during events:
likely inundation area forecasts to assist tactical decision making to protect lives and property
− After events:
accurate inundation footprints to inform relief, short-term and longer-term recovery activities
• The solution needed to be
− Shareable across governments and more widely
− Linked to official forecasts/warnings where possible
− Provide an open approach to the modelling
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Western Sydney

4. Open to mix of existing and new, fit for purpose, models
Linked to existing Bureau products
Sharable outputs
National scale possible
FliFS Proof of Concept
The components of the system based on Delft-FEWS
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
www.delft-fews.com
shared
open
linked
National potential

5. Modelling framework with multi-model approach
open approach, linked to official warning, shareable outputs, national coverage
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Multi-model open approach to provide “best” forecast in any location:
1. High-population (urban) areas
Often have detailed flood studies available (for small areas)
− waterRIDE models combine existing flood maps with official warning to provide detailed and accurate forecast
2. Urban and regional areas
Population and infrastructure, quality (DEM) data
− SFINCS models provide inundation forecast, incl effects
of complex compound flooding on national scale, using
gridded (DEM) info and:
− inflow from rivers and streams forecast (wflow models)
− tide and storm surge forecast (coastal SFINCS model)
3. Regional areas
Not a lot of infrastructure, no quality (DEM) data
− Simpler fit-for-purpose approaches (not part of the PoC)

6. High-population areas: waterRIDE
open approach, use existing high resolution model results
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Brisbane 2011 flood extent:
Observed (yellow line) and
Simulated (blue surface)

7. High-population areas: waterRIDE hydraulic interpolation
linked to official warning
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
models in QLD and NSW, run automatically based on official warning
i. Fitzroy (Rockhampton) - very large coastal catchment
ii. Brisbane River - large, linear river system with flood gates
iii. Logan/Albert - large, multi-tributary catchment
iv. Hastings (Port Macquarie) - medium sized, faster responding catchment
v. Georges River (Sydney) - medium sized catchment, multi-jurisdiction
vi. Murrumbidgee (Wagga Wagga) - large inland river
Official warning Offline 2D maps Real-time map
vii. Tweed (Murwilumbah)
viii. Manning (Taree)
ix. Wilson (Lismore)

8. High-population areas: waterRIDE outputs
shareable results in usable formats
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Max depth Shapefile
Max water level

9. High-population areas
national scale
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Not feasible for this approach

10. SFINCS – inundation
• Open-source reduced-complexity model designed
for super-fast modelling of compound flooding
• fluvial, pluvial, tidal, wind- & wave-driven processes
• Subgrid - Fast computations, with high-res results
− water levels updated on coarse grid (200m in PoC),
− flux computations performed on fine grid (10m in PoC)
• Detailed info on local elevation
is used when determining
depths, leading to accurate results
Urban areas: wflow and SFINCS
open approach, with open source gridded models that can cover large areas
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
wflow – hydrology
• Open-source physically based gridded model
• Using (mostly global open) gridded data sets
https://sfincs.readthedocs.io/
https://deltares.github.io/Wflow.jl/

11. Urban areas: wflow and SFINCS
national coverage, with automated model set-up
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
https://deltares.github.io/hydromt/
HydroMT – model builder tool
• Largely automated and reproducible process using HydroMT
• For all catchments upstream of the SFINCS model domains
• Based on global and local datasets

12. SFINCS – inundation
Brisbane 2011
Simulated (orange), observed (blue)
Moggil and Brisbane City Alert
Urban areas: wflow and SFINCS
national coverage, using existing gridded data sets and models that can easily be updated as needed
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
wflow – hydrology
Brisbane 2011
https://opendap.deltares.nl/static/deltares/cosmos/flifs_brisbane_jan2011/index.html
Brisbane River @ Gregor Creek
Bremer River @ Walloon
Brisbane River
@ Moggil
Stanley River @ Woodford

13. SFINCS – inundation, 5 day forecast
wflow, SFINCS coastal
Urban areas: wflow and SFINCS
shareable results in usable formats
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
wflow – hydrology, 10 day forecast
Access-G, observed rain and levels
Observed +
NWP (ACCESS-G)

14. SFINCS
URBS, ROMS, TC?
Urban areas: wflow and SFINCS
linked to Bureau products (ACCESS-G, observations), further integration possible
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
wflow
Observed reservoir and lake levels
Observed +
NWP (ACCESS-G)

15. • ArcGIS online (shapefiles)
• Thredds / OpenDAP (gridded data in netcdf files, .shp)
• Delft-FEWS API: WMS-T (image) and REST (time series)
Dissemination
shareable results in usable formats
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia

16. X
FliFS PoC in action
Anecdotal ‘validation’ in my neighbourhood
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Feb Water depth for the next 5 days, West End QLD
(SFINCS)

17. FliFS PoC in action
Along the coast
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Feb Water depth for the next 5 days, West End QLD
(SFINCS)

18. FliFS PoC in action
Shapefiles from FliFS in ArcGIS Online
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
3 March Flood Inundation, Logan Albert QLD
(waterRIDE and SFINCS)

19. FliFS PoC in action
Shapefiles from FliFS in ArcGIS Online
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
8 March Flood Inundation, Lismore
(SFINCS)

20. FliFS PoC in action
Grids from FliFS in ArcGIS Online
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
8 March Flood depth, Clarence River
(SFINCS)

21. FliFS PoC in action
Shapefiles from FliFS in ArcGIS Online
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
8 March Flood Inundation, Port Macquarie NSW
(waterRIDE and SFINCS)

22. FliFS PoC in action
Shapefiles from FliFS in ArcGIS Online combined with exposure data
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
October Flood Inundation, Newcastle
(SFINCS)

23. FliFS PoC in action
Shapefiles from FliFS in ArcGIS Online
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
8 March Flood Inundation, Hawkesbury River
(SFINCS)

24. FliFS PoC in action
Shapefiles from FliFS in ArcGIS Online
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
8 March Flood Inundation, Georges River
NSW (waterRIDE and SFINCS)

25. FliFS PoC in action
Shapefiles from FliFS in ArcGIS Online combined with exposure data
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
October Flood Inundation, Wagga Wagga NSW
(waterRIDE)

26. Initial Learnings from PoC
as presented by ACS at the Delft-FEWS User Days
• PoC has shown viability of extent and depth forecasts from
multiple models (SFINCS/waterRIDE) particularly over large areas
• Coverage
− Applying to whole country is a massive job involving:
− Model development/calibration
− Working with states and territories to define the service
• Usability
− The outputs have been well used (experimental)
− Shapefile (through WFS) is desirable output format of our customers, to
enable integration and analysis with other key data sets
− Population and business information
− Roads and supply chain
− Building information
• An independent review of the system is about to start,
which will provide feedback on options for future developments
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia
Tuggerah Lake

27. Current work
Extension of PoC
• Coverage
− Inclusion of more waterRIDE model locations (16 in total)
− Create (national) database with global and local data sets for SFINCS and wflow models
• Usability
− Create high resolution inundation shapefiles for AGOL (from SFINCS models)
− Design and develop WFS (web features service) functionality
• Accuracy
− Improve set-up of waterRIDE models
− Improve set-up of a wflow model by using local data
− Improve set-up of a SFINCS model by using local data
DSD-SEA
2023
Operational
flood
inundation
forecasting
in
Australia

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www.deltares.nl
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Contact