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Women in Leadership
Making Good Decisions in an Uncertain World
Denise M.
Rousseau
H.J. Heinz II
University
Professor
Carnegie Mellon
University
DECISIONS THAT WORK:
EVIDENCE-BASED
DECISION MAKING
 BIASES AFFECT ALL HUMAN DECISIONS AND INDIVIDUALS
CANNOT EASILY DE-BIAS THEMSELVES.
 BUT WE CAN DETECT BIASES IN OTHER PEOPLE.
 CERTAIN ORGANIZATIONAL PRACTICES CAN REPAIR AND
REDUCE DECISION BIASES.
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
1. SOLVING WRONG PROBLEM TAKE TIME TO SEARCH &
ASK QUESTIONS
2. PRETENDING THERE’S NO POLITICSCHECK OUT
SPONSOR BIAS & PET PROJECTS/CONSIDER ALL
STAKEHOLDERS (winners/losers)
3. ONLY ONE OPTION GENERATE SEVERAL ALTERNATIVES
4. JUST ONE SUCCESS CRITERIONUSE SEVERAL OUTCOMES
OF EFFECTIVENESS
5. USING EASILY AVAILABLE INFOBROADEN SOURCES,
SCIENCE, ORGANIZATIONAL DATA, STAKEHOLDER CONCERNS
DE-BIASING PRACTICES
TRUST A HIPPO?
 Decision Process: Steps used to make decision
 Decision Quality: An appropriate decision process increases
odds of success
 Right Decision Process Depends on Type of Decision (how
much is known and how much is uncertain)
DECISION PROCESS INDICATES ITS QUALITY
# 1. KNOWN UNKNOWNS: Slow and deliberate
We might not know but information is available—
Use the De-biasing Practices—Step by Step
#2. KNOWN KNOWNS: Fast and frugal
Recurrent decisions can be routinized
--checklists/protocols
#3. UNKNOWN UNKNOWS: Emergent
Learn by doing, experimentation and feedback
Can’t plan for, but you can practice!
THREE DECISION TYPES BY THE EVIDENCE
 What are two ideas you take away from this talk?
POP QUIZ
OUR PANELLISTS
Dr Melrona Kirrane
DCU LTI
Ms Stephanie Manahan
CEO of the CRC
Prof Denise Rousseau
Carnegie Mellon
STAY CONNECTED
www.dcu.ie/leadership-talent
lti@dcu.ie
+353 1 700 6044
@DCUBSLTI

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Making Good Decisions in an Uncertain World

  • 1. Women in Leadership Making Good Decisions in an Uncertain World
  • 2. Denise M. Rousseau H.J. Heinz II University Professor Carnegie Mellon University DECISIONS THAT WORK: EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING
  • 3.  BIASES AFFECT ALL HUMAN DECISIONS AND INDIVIDUALS CANNOT EASILY DE-BIAS THEMSELVES.  BUT WE CAN DETECT BIASES IN OTHER PEOPLE.  CERTAIN ORGANIZATIONAL PRACTICES CAN REPAIR AND REDUCE DECISION BIASES. WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
  • 4. 1. SOLVING WRONG PROBLEM TAKE TIME TO SEARCH & ASK QUESTIONS 2. PRETENDING THERE’S NO POLITICSCHECK OUT SPONSOR BIAS & PET PROJECTS/CONSIDER ALL STAKEHOLDERS (winners/losers) 3. ONLY ONE OPTION GENERATE SEVERAL ALTERNATIVES 4. JUST ONE SUCCESS CRITERIONUSE SEVERAL OUTCOMES OF EFFECTIVENESS 5. USING EASILY AVAILABLE INFOBROADEN SOURCES, SCIENCE, ORGANIZATIONAL DATA, STAKEHOLDER CONCERNS DE-BIASING PRACTICES
  • 6.  Decision Process: Steps used to make decision  Decision Quality: An appropriate decision process increases odds of success  Right Decision Process Depends on Type of Decision (how much is known and how much is uncertain) DECISION PROCESS INDICATES ITS QUALITY
  • 7. # 1. KNOWN UNKNOWNS: Slow and deliberate We might not know but information is available— Use the De-biasing Practices—Step by Step #2. KNOWN KNOWNS: Fast and frugal Recurrent decisions can be routinized --checklists/protocols #3. UNKNOWN UNKNOWS: Emergent Learn by doing, experimentation and feedback Can’t plan for, but you can practice! THREE DECISION TYPES BY THE EVIDENCE
  • 8.  What are two ideas you take away from this talk? POP QUIZ
  • 9.
  • 10. OUR PANELLISTS Dr Melrona Kirrane DCU LTI Ms Stephanie Manahan CEO of the CRC Prof Denise Rousseau Carnegie Mellon