Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment
1Growth and Inclusion in the GMSCountries: An AssessmentBySrinivasa MadhurDirector of Research,Cambodia Development Resource Institute(CDRI), Phnom Penh, CambodiaGlobal Development Network MeetingAsian Development Bank (ADB),Manila, Philippines, 20 June, 2013(This presentation is based on aforthcoming paper on the same subjectco-authored with Jayant Menon, LeadEconomist, ADB)
2Three key questions addressed• How inclusive has growth and development been in the GMScountries?• What are the key patterns of development inclusivenessemerging across the GMS countries?• What lessons for making development more inclusive in thefuture(The empirical evidences are examined against thebackdrop of an analytical framework – not presented here- that defines inclusiveness, explains its many dimensions,and reasons out why it should be the overarchingdevelopment goal)
3GMS, GMS countries, and thecoverage of this study• GMS – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, China’sYunan Province and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region) A natural geographic and economic area linked by the MekongRiver 2.6 million square kilometers About 326 million people An Average per capita income of about $1500 (at currentexchange rates)• GMS countries - Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam,Thailand, China – 6 countries• This study covers the GMS countries (except Myanmar),rather than the GMS per se
4Looks mainly at the economic, social, andgovernance dimensions of inclusiveness• Economic dimensions - growth inclusiveness : Growth and structural changes poverty (national, $1.25-a-day and $2-a-day) income/consumption inequality income/consumption polarization• Human development and social inclusiveness: Health Education Social protection and gender equity Other vulnerabilities• Governance dimensions: Governance Democratization
Main messages – economicinclusiveness• GMS countries had strong growth, dynamic structural changes, and modesteconomic catch-up/convergence.• Today, the GMS is mostly a middle income region (Cambodia about to be) anda rapidly industrializing and urbanizing sub-region in Asia.• Today as in 1995,CAM the poorest and Thailand the richest – yet Thailand’sincome now 3.7 times that of Cambodia, compared to about 7 times in 1995.• In 995, Thailand was thrice as rich as China; today the two have similar incomes• Poverty reduction equally impressive – Vietnam’s growth most pro-poor/poor-friendly, Laos’s the least (with China and CAM in between).• Remaining poor in many of these countries typically the hard-to-reach kind• Moreover, a number of economic and environmental vulnerabilities - increasingin some countries – threaten people’s livelihoods and quality of life moregenerally• Beyond poverty, growth could have been more inclusive, had overall incomedistribution and polarization not worsened/remained high (with exceptions)5
Main messages – human development andsocial inclusiveness• Substantial human development – between 1995-2012, HDI increases of 35-41% range, excluding Thailand).• GMS people lead healthier lives now - big strides in mortality (life expectancy,maternal, infant), large declines in undernourishment, modest containment ofcontagious diseases• Thanks to better sanitation, cleaner drinking water, improved health care – inturn partly due to increased public investment in health• GMS people better educated now – huge increases in literacy rate, studentenrollment (especially in primary but also in secondary), and years of schooling• GMS countries also making progress in social protection, gender equity, andwomen empowerment• Despite the long distance travelled by GMS countries in human development,the distance to destination (say, a socially equitable society) is equally large• That is true in many spheres of human development and social inclusion, butespecially in health and education, as also in managing severe vulnerabilities6
Main messages – governance anddemocratization• Governance - difficult to measure - survey-based and perception basedindicators the “gold standard” in empirical assessment• By WB indicators, Thailand tops the list in most areas (except pol. stability)• China at the top spot on govt. effectiveness but at the bottom in terms of voiceand accountability• Other countries share strengths (Cambodia in voice and accountability, Laos andVietnam in political stability), and weakness ( Cambodia and Laos in rule of lawand corruption, Laos and Vietnam in voice and accountability)• Democratization indicators show mixed messages too – overall Thailand at thetop , Laos at the bottom, and other countries with strengths and weaknesses• Cambodia a good example of mixed progress in democratization - has strengthsin electoral process, civil liberties, and govt. functioning, but does not comparewell in political participation and culture.• Significant scope for gradual institution-building and governance reforms –perhaps the most difficult and a highly sensitive issue for the GMS countries7
GMS no exception to the“Impossible Trinity of Inclusiveness”“The political problem of mankind is tocombine three things: economicefficiency, social justice, and individualliberty”(John Maynard Keynes, quoted in UNDP,Human Development Report, 2013, p.20)8
Figure and TablesThe main messages are drawnfrom the “Figures and Tables”in the next 37 slides9
Catching up/income convergence - percapita income (PPP$ at 2005 prices)10Country 1995 2011Multiples(2011/1995)Cambodia 811 2083 2.6Laos 1114 2464 2.2Vietnam 1231 3013 2.4Thailand 5691 7635 1.3China 1849 7418 4.0Source: World Bank – World Development Indicators dataset 2013
Structural convergence ? (% of GDP -constant prices – agri./ ind./ service)11Source: GMS-DAN country papers (2013)Country Initial year Latest yearCam (1993-2011) 46/13/35 25/27/41Laos (19995-2010) 54/21/25 28/33/39Vietnam (1999-2010) 32/25/43 16/42/42Thai (1995-2009) 10/40/50 10/40/50China(1993-2010) 20/46/34 10/47/43Yunan (2000-2010) 20/43/37 15/43/42
Trends in the incidence of tuberculosis(per 100,000 people), 1994-201126424213 19912475-60060120180240300360420480-60.00.060.0120.0180.0240.0300.0360.0420.0480.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaper100,000people%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
Trends in the prevalence of HIV, total (% ofpopulation ages 15-49), 1990/1999 - 201127Source: World Bank – World Development Indicators 2022.214.171.124.20.10120.000.050.100.126.96.36.1990.350.400.45Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofpopulationages15-49%pointchange% point change Latest yr.
Trends in access to improved watersource (% of population with access),1990/1994 - 201028Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 201364 6795 96 910204060801001200.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofpopulationwithaccess%changeImproved water source (% of population withaccess), 1990/1994 - 2010% change Latest yr.
Trends in improved sanitation facilities(% of population with access),1990/1994 - 201029Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 201331637696640204060801001200.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofpopulationwithaccess%change% change Latest yr.
Births attended by skilled healthstaff (% of total), 2006-201130713793100 100020406080100120Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%oftotalSource: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
Trends in public expenditure on health(% of GDP), 1998-201231Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 20188.8.131.52.92.70.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.50.00.20.40.60.81.01.184.108.40.206.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofGDP%pointchange% point change Latest yr.
Health gaps between the poor and the rich– bigdata gapsCountryInfantmortalityrateUnder-5mortalityrateDiarrhea*(% ofchildrenunder age5)AcuteRespiratoryInfection(ARI)**Prevalence ofchildmalnutrition(underweight)***PregnantwomenreceivingprenatalcareBirthsattendedby skilledhealth staffCambodia(2010)3.3 3.0 1.6 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.5Laos(2006)NA NA 1.9 2.3 2.4 0.2 0.0Vietnam(2006)NA NA NA NA NA 0.7 0.5Thailand(2006)NA NA 1.7 2.1 3.8 1.0 0.9China NA NA NA NA NA NA NA32Note: *Percentage of children under five who had diarrhea in the two weeks preceding the survey;**Percentage of children under five with symtoms of ARI; ***for Cambodia, it is the percentage below -2standard deviation (SD) from the WHO Child Growth Standards population median. It includes children whoare below -3 SD.Source: CDHS 2010; World Bank – WDI 2012, 2013
Trends in youth literacy rate, total (ofpeople ages 15-24), 1990 - 2005/20103387.1383.9396.9498.0599.4075.0080.0085.0090.0095.00100.00105.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaofpeopleages15-24%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013
Mean years of schooling (years), 2010and expected years of schooling (years),20113220.127.116.11.67.510.5 10.111.9 12.311.70.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinayear(s)Mean years of schooling (years) Expected years of schooling (years)Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2013
Trends in public expenditure oneducation, total (% of GDP),1990/1999 – 2000/2011392.603.306.603.802.900.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.000.001.002.003.004.005.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofGDP%pointchange% point change Latest yr.Note: The latest data for China is in 2000 (World Bank – WDI 2003)Source: UNDP-HDR 2005; World Bank – WDI 2003, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
Gender equityCountryGender InequalityIndex, 2012*Gender Gap Index,2012**Discrimination againstWomen, 2012***Rank Value* Rank Score**Rank out of86countriesSIGIscore***Cambodia 96 0.473 103 0.6457 13 0.1213Laos 100 0.483 NA NA 49 0.2599Vietnam 48 0.299 66 0.6867 43 0.2393Thailand 66 0.360 65 0.6893 25 0.1475China 35 0.213 69 0.6853 42 0.238843Note: * 0=when women and men fare equally and 1=where one gender fares as poorly as possible in allmeasured dimensions; ** the highest possible score is 1 (equality) and the lowest possible score is 0 (inequality);*** 0 = low discrimination, 1 = high discriminationSource: 1. UNDP-HDR 2013; 2. WEF-The Global Gender Gap Index Report 2012; 3. OECD-SIGI, 2012
Vulnerabilities (environmental) and multi-dimensional poverty index (MDPI)Country% Pop livingon degradedlandDeaths dueto waterpollution(no. permillionpeople)Deaths dueto indoor airpollution(no. permillionpeople)Deaths due tooutdoor airpollution (no.per millionpeople)Access toelectricity (%of population)*Multidimensional povertyindex (Year)Year 2010 2004 2004 2004 2009-2011 -Cambodia 39 826 500 23 37.6 0.212 (2010)Laos 4 406 459 0 55 0.267 (2006)Vietnam 8 72 289 81 97.60.017(2010/2011)Thailand 17 121 159 61 99.30.006(2005/2006)China 9 42 422 230 99.4 0.056 (2002)44Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2010, 2011, 2013; *World Bank - World Development Indicatorsdataset 2013, except for Cambodia, national source (CSES 2011)