Accc keynote final june 4 th 2011

Future Think:How Colleges Can Respond to the Revolutions Shaping Our World,[object Object],Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FRSA, FBPsS,[object Object],Chief Scout, Murgatroyd Communications & Consulting Inc,[object Object],Edmonton, June 6th 2011,[object Object],ACCC, Shaw Conference Centre,[object Object]

“History is a mystery, but the future is clear…”,[object Object],Ben Bernanke,[object Object]

“You cant make a map unless you can see the world as it is .. you have to know where you are before you can figure out how to go about getting there…”,[object Object],Seth Godin,[object Object]

BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future,[object Object],This presentation will look at six current “revolutions” and their significance. The five revolutions are:,[object Object],Technology,[object Object],Global Economics,[object Object],Global power balances,[object Object],Demographics,[object Object],Changes in the Patterns of Climate,[object Object],Personal Identity,[object Object],For each, we will look at the opportunities for Canada’s Community Colleges,[object Object]

Technology,[object Object],The First Revolution,[object Object]

Technology is Everywhere,[object Object],The iPad is the fastest growing technology ever to be sold – iPad 1 sold 1 million in 28 days (April 2010) and the iPad 2 sold 1 million in 3 days (March 2011) – a total of 19.5 million have been sold in 12 months,[object Object],The 10 billionth “app” for the iPhone/ iPad was downloaded on January 22nd 2011 at 1045 am,[object Object],640 million Facebook users in 6 years,[object Object],In Q4 of 2010 Smart Phone shipments outstrip PC shipments 2:1,[object Object]

Adoption Speeds are Getting Faster(number of years to secure 80% penetration),[object Object]

Technology is Changing IndustriesThe Forest Sector…,[object Object],Cellulosic Ethanol,[object Object],Pulp & Paper,[object Object],Nano Crystalline Cellulose,[object Object],Bio Active Paper & Packs,[object Object],Building Material,[object Object],Renewable diesel,[object Object],Aircraft Fuels,[object Object],Energy,[object Object],Bio Plastics,[object Object],Food Additives,[object Object],Bio Oils,[object Object],Methanol,[object Object],Textiles,[object Object],Renewable Tires using Lignin,[object Object],Bio Pharmaceuticals,[object Object]

Music / Movie Rental Industry,[object Object],iTunes has changed this industry, with over 5 billion downloads,[object Object],iTunes Store also has the largest music catalogue online, with over 8 million tracks. ,[object Object],iTunes Store is now renting over 50,000 movies daily, turning it into the most popular movie store, too, with a catalogue of over 20,000 TV episodes, over 2,000 films, of which over 350+ are available in HD quality.,[object Object]

Health CareThe Robot-Biotech Revolution,[object Object],In Canada/US 75,000 robotic surgeries each year and growing at 12% CAGR in North America ,[object Object],Nanotechnology products in health care now appearing:,[object Object],Drug delivery system,[object Object],Inner nano-bots monitoring systems,[object Object],Growing “organs” for transplant,[object Object]

Technology Revolution,[object Object],Broadband based technologies are disruptive,[object Object],They are fundamentally changing service industries, e.g.,[object Object],Banking,[object Object],Travel,[object Object],Music and Movies,[object Object],Books ,[object Object],Newspapers,[object Object],Education,[object Object],Digital and robotic technologies are increasingly disruptive. They are changing industries, e.g.,[object Object],Forestry,[object Object],Health care,[object Object],Manufacturing,[object Object],Logistics and supply chains,[object Object],Bio, Genome and Nano technologies will reshape health care, food systems and other major industries,[object Object]

The Pattern Here.. ,[object Object],A disruptive technology changes behaviour of large number of people which institutions and organization are initially slow to respond to,[object Object],Over time, new products and services emerge which change industries (e.g. itunes, iPad),[object Object],Other sectors then are emboldened by developments in related sectors and seek to adopt/adapt ,[object Object],New firms emerge which “get” the technology and create new products and services – e.g. yet2.com ,[object Object],Over time, Established firms (Blockbuster) are replaced by new players (Netflix),[object Object]

Implications for Colleges,[object Object],Remember:,[object Object],Disruptive technologies create new classes of workers, new kinds of drivers for success and new kinds of organizations,[object Object],Social structure changes in line with technology, but generally slowly,[object Object],Speed of technological replacement of core educational technologies has been slow, but is now accelerating..,[object Object],Remember,[object Object],Not all Canadians have access to broadband,[object Object],The digital divide is more than about access,[object Object],Adopt and adapt technology for learning and teaching,[object Object],Don’t sweat the small stuff – focus on outcomes and student engagement, not the technology itself,[object Object],Don’t convert courses, reinventthem,[object Object],Don’t let the faculty drive this work – it’s a new model for design, development, deployment and delivery ,[object Object],Rethinkthe process of learning,[object Object],Rethink the use of time and the opportunity to personalize learning,[object Object],Rethink“reach” – what your customer base looks like..,[object Object],Fastest growing segment of technology users are seniors…,[object Object]

Global economy,[object Object],Revolution 2,[object Object]

The Dynamics,[object Object],Emerging BRIC’s economies are having a major impact on the global economy,[object Object],Brazil – now the 5th largest holder of US debt, will grow at an average of 4.4% annually between now and 2050,[object Object],Russia - will grow at an average of 4 % annually between now and 2050,[object Object],India - will grow at an average of 8.1% annually between now and 2050,[object Object],China – the largest holder of US debt, will grow 9.3% in 2011 and average 5.9% to 2050,[object Object],When we look at the economic “shape” of the world in 2050 it looks somewhat different from now…,[object Object]

2050,[object Object],2010,[object Object]

Other Complications to the “Normal” Economic Order..,[object Object],PIGS economies remain weak and vulnerable, especially Greece,[object Object],Japan will take a considerable time to restore economic health given its level of debt and the impact of the tsunami / earthquake which had a significant effect on global supply chains,[object Object],The middle east unrest (especially Syria) is having a destabilising effect on that regional economy and could have a medium term impact on oil prices and inflation,[object Object],US debt (Federal $14.3 trillion and growing / 48 US States in severe financial trouble) coupled with the inability of the political system to agree a strategy is extremely problematic,[object Object],Oil, commodity and food inflation will have a significant impact on the world economy, especially the world’s poor,[object Object],Structural sovereign debt is everywhere – we are headed to a decade or more of austerity in the developed world with major impacts on trade and employment,[object Object],Labour supply in the developed world “tight” – and challenging. Global war for talent is “on”.,[object Object]

US Debt to 2019,[object Object]

G-Zero for Global Institutions,[object Object],It’s a flat but lumpy economic world…,[object Object],Historically, the G7 (then the G8 and then the G20) met twice a year to adjust elements of the global economic strategy. The IMF and the World Bank were also “directed” through these meetings.,[object Object],These organizations are now dysfunctional – we live in the G-Zero age with no institution fully engaged/ able to step up to a significant transition, though the IMF and World Bank are seeking to fulfill this role.,[object Object],Our economic institutions are in the process of rebalancing and redefining their roles,[object Object],Meantime, we have a “an unusually uncertain environment” (Ben Bernanke) – code for “we’re flying blind”.,[object Object]

Implications for Colleges,[object Object],Your students will likely need work experience abroad – focus on the BRICS countries (think Finland and CIMO),[object Object],Co-Op programs with companies working in different countries could be very powerful “attractor”,[object Object],Your graduates will be in high demand world wide – don’t prepare them just for work in Timmins, High Level or Prince George – think Shanghai, Mumbai or Denpasar ,[object Object],Learning a second language might be just as important as securing a trade ticket,[object Object],All students need to understand how Canada “fits” into the global economy and how we are connected globally,[object Object],Understanding simple economics and global citizenship is a “must have” skill,[object Object]

Global power balances,[object Object],Revolution 3,[object Object]

Political Power: It’s Safe To Say..,[object Object],We are witness to the beginning of the decline of the US as the worlds global super-power,[object Object],Vietnam Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya not military successes,[object Object],Economic power clearly in decline as the BRIC’s economies emerge,[object Object],Political “messy-ness” characterizes Washington,[object Object],Low rates of democratic participation (55-56% and as low as 49% in 1996), especially amongst some ethnic groups and fractionation of politics (T-Party, lobbying),[object Object], Banking system in relative permanent state of uncertainty,[object Object],Low performance on PISA educational attainments – 24th in the world on mathematics (lower position than 2006) and 7th in the world on reading.,[object Object],Europe going through a major transition – EU 27 struggling to gain identity in a time of austerity and tension between Germany/France/UK on the one hand and the PIGS economies on the other as well as between the UK and Eurozone,[object Object],Former global powers of the G7 nations (US, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada) are shifting with some in serious economic trouble (US, Japan, Italy) and some seeking to punch globally above their weight (UK, Canada, France) and some unsure about their status (Italy),[object Object]

Social Capital: Education Landscape is Changing,[object Object]

Other Aspects of the World Are Also Changing,[object Object],[object Object]

Middle East and the Summer of Unrest – emerging democracies (fed by Facebook and Twitter)

Quickly growing middle class in Asia, India and Africa – more middle class in China than the total population of the US

Health quality rising in formerly unhealthy regions – health drives wealth

Globalization making it possible for Kenya to become the world’s second largest producer of cut flowers and coffee,[object Object]

Demographics and the grey tsunami,[object Object],Revolution 4,[object Object]

Lets Begin with CanadaAge specific Fertility Rates 1926 - 2005,[object Object]

Now Lets Look at The US,[object Object]

And Now Europe,[object Object]

The Grey Tsunami is Beginning,[object Object]

The World Looks Like..,[object Object]

Our Demographic Challenge,[object Object],Lowering world-wide of fertility, linked to growing health and wealth,[object Object],Many people in the developed world (but also in China and India) living longer,[object Object],Ratio of those working to those not working falling – more people not working,[object Object],Costs of social programs (especially health) rising and debt levels in major economies higher,[object Object],Fewer people in work to pay taxes to support a growing number of people not in work,[object Object],Austerity likely, with a major impact on employment which in turn, encourages a shift to outsourcing…,[object Object]

More Specifically…,[object Object],Alberta will be “short” 77,000+ skilled and professionals by 2017 – mainly trades,[object Object],Ontario will be “short” 190,000 workers in 2020, rising to 364,000 by 2025 and 564,000 by 2030,[object Object],BC will be “short” 80,000+ workers by 2019,[object Object],Quebec will be “short” 360,000 workers by 2025,[object Object],If you add these up – Canada’s core economies will be looking for 800,000+ people,[object Object],We need to start offering over half our High School Students a route to Trades Faster-Smarter-Now,[object Object]

Implications for Colleges,[object Object],Workforce transformation over the next 15 years.,[object Object],Shortage of available talent to fill growing number of vacancies may force a rethink of teaching, learning and resourcing,[object Object],New forms of contractual arrangements – “Rent-A-Prof” becomes attractive,[object Object],Key growth will be from aboriginal communities, first generation learners and learners in rural and remote communities,[object Object],Immigration a key source of labour – and in need o skill development,[object Object],Online learning could be a response to demographic challenges,[object Object]

The Earth and Climate change,[object Object],Revolution 5,[object Object]

Climate Change is Not NewIt Occurs Around every 1,500 Years,[object Object]

Does Appear to be Getting Warmer..,[object Object],Though some suggests that data anomalies / Adjustments cause some of this warming. Others claim that the warming effectively stopped in 1998……,[object Object]

…and there is more atmospheric CO2,[object Object],The current June 2011 CO2 levels are estimated at 390 ppm. The last time CO2was that high was around 3 million years ago, in the early Pliocene. Back then, CO2levels remained at around 365 to 410 ppm for thousands of years. Fear is it will rise to 550 ppm by 2050 (unlikely).,[object Object]

Four Generalized Response Scenarios(Probability in Brackets Judged by 60 Leading Thinkers / Years = Mean Arrival Dates of the Scenario),[object Object]

Implications for Colleges,[object Object],Climate change will lead to significant changes in agriculture, forestry, water, energy and environmental management ,[object Object],Eco-Services and the “green” economy will be a significant growth sector (subject to….),[object Object],Climate change will create new forms of employment and new challenges for employees,[object Object],Colleges will need to demonstrate their own green credentials,[object Object],Colleges could be local “hubs” for a green economy,[object Object],Colleges will be central to the skills developments needed for the green economy,[object Object],BUT don’t get overly excited….we’re not the EU!,[object Object]

A new “self”,[object Object],Revolution Six,[object Object]

Challenges to Our Sense of Identity,[object Object],We are experiencing a generation who confuse “tweeting” with meaning and Facebook friends with friendship, reality TV with reality,[object Object],Shifting from homo-sapien to homo-zapien,[object Object],Many search for meaning in relation to,[object Object],Family, community and society,[object Object],Self and personal identity,[object Object],Personal relationship,[object Object],Relationship to knowledge, information and wisdom ,[object Object]

Implications for Colleges,[object Object],Colleges are not knowledge “factories” or qualification providers – they should be a place which helps individuals find meaning,[object Object],Our students need to understand not simply what they can do, but who they are..,[object Object],The non academic / teaching roles of mentors, coaches and guides requires us to think through how we help students find meaning,[object Object],Requires the teaching of,[object Object],Critical self reflection,[object Object],Social understanding and personal understanding,[object Object],Mindfulness,[object Object],Purposive pursuit,[object Object],An especially strong issue for aboriginal students, recent immigrants and those struggling with identity in a multi-cultural society,[object Object]

SOME HISTORICAL Perspective…,[object Object],Understanding the Overall Implications,[object Object]

A New 21st Century Renaissance?,[object Object],The Medieval Renaissance,[object Object],Challenges to generally accepted boundaries of thought and action,[object Object],Redefining of who had power/authority,[object Object],Realignment of the power of the church and state,[object Object],Exploration, innovation and cultural enrichment,[object Object],New technology (printing),[object Object],Reinvention of “self”,[object Object],New forms of expression – new forms of art, music, drama, poetry,[object Object],21st Century Renaissance,[object Object],Realigning of social, political and economic boundaries,[object Object],Power shifting in terms of social democratic movements and the fractionation of politics,[object Object],New forms of religious beliefs and a new secularism,[object Object],Innovation, technological disruption with social consequences (social media),[object Object],Reinvention of “self” and “followership”,[object Object],New forms of expression – social media, new forms of music and art, drama, film..,[object Object]

Understanding Transitions : Different Social Structures in Different Economic Ages,[object Object]

Implications for Colleges,[object Object],Many colleges are geared to the industrial/post industrial era – we’re actually in the information era and are shifting to the robotic/biotech era,[object Object],Need to understand the role of the college as a catalyst for locally relevant innovation and as a community based leadership academy for change,[object Object],Every student who graduates from a College needs to be a change agent,[object Object],Every student who graduates from a College needs to have:,[object Object],Level 3 Literacy,[object Object],An appropriate level of financial literacy,[object Object],An appropriate level of technological literacy,[object Object],Emotional intelligence,[object Object],Coping skills,[object Object],Its rethinking learning as a process time..,[object Object]

Accc keynote final june 4 th 2011

Accc keynote final june 4 th 2011

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Accc keynote final june 4 th 2011

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