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ASEAN

The Long Road
    Ahead
Economic Facts
•   GDP
•   GDP Growth Rate
•   GDP 2011
•   GDP Per Capita
•   GNI Per Capita
•   Human Development Index
•   Poverty Rate
•   Inequality Problem represented by Gini
    Coefficient
GDP (Current Million U.S.$)
               GDP Current U.S. $ (Million)
                    Brunei Darussalam         Cambodia    Indonesia
                    Lao PDR                   Malaysia    Myanmar
                    Philippines               Singapore   Thailand
                    Vietnam
                                                            800000


                                                            600000


                                                            400000


                                                            200000


                                                             0
             1990       1995         2000       2005      2010
                                     year



Source: World Bank
GDP Growth Annual %
Source: World Bank
GDP Per capita (Current U.S.$)
GNI Per Capita




Source: World Bank
Source: UNDP
2011 HDI

              Country     HDI   Rank
            Singapore
            Brunei
            Malaysia
            Thailand
            Philippines
            Indonesia
            Vietnam
            Lao
            Cambodia
            Myanmar

Source : UNDP
Source: World Bank
                     Average 67.2
Adult (15+)Literacy Rate




Source: CIA      Mean 87.3
Povety and Inequality
Poverty Rate under 1.25$
                Cambodia            Philippines   Malaysia
                Thailand            Vietnam       Singapore
                Indonesia           Myanmar       Lao
                Brunei
                                                           80


                                                           60


                                                           40


                                                           20


                                                           0
         1980               1990           2000     2010
                                   year

Source: World Bank
Poverty Alleviation
Source: ADB
Source: ADB
Reason for Inequality
• Difference in

-   Opportunity
-   Education
-   Social Status
-   Skill
-   Physical and mental collalteral
Situation of Inequality




Source: PBS
Source: UNDP
2011 Gini Coefficient by World Bank

           Country    Gini
        Thailand
        Cambodia
        Vietnam
        Myanmar       NA
        Malaysia
        Brunei        NA
        Indonesia
        Singapore
        Lao
        Philippines
Developing countries and trade
          probelm

     Unstable Export Market

       Worsening Terms of Trade


     Limited Accessed to global market
ASEAN Labor management
      presentation

        [Warawut Ruankham]
       [Sattawat Aunlimphan]
         [Ministry of labour]
                [AEC]
Overview
•   Asean population
•   Recent labour market
•   Youth employment
•   Education
•   Intra-regional labour migration in ASEAN
•   Occupational safety and health (OSH)
ASEAN Populations proportion
Population
Population Growth (1990-2010)
What would happen ?

• Aging society
Population Policy
• Family planning

• Authoritarian Approach (Coercion and quotas)

• Sterilization campaign

• Developed countries help provide contraceptives
  to Less developed countries.
• Improvement in women’s education
Recent labour market trends
• Increasing labour supply creates pressure
• Gender gap weakens labour force
  participation
Labour productivity
Job growth and labour productivity equally
                important
Employment shifts from agriculture
     to industry and services
English Proficiency Index (EF EPI)
English Proficiency Index (EF EPI)
Minimum wage
Migration
7 Careers that can move freely
Immigrations
1998-2005 Registered Migrants per Sex and Nationalities
            in Thailand (Ministry of Labor)
Labor Migration Flows
The policy
• Ensure that migration is going to be mutually
  beneficial for all parties
• Regularize the migration: regulate admissions
• discourage employers hiring undocumented
  migrants and give migrant workers legal status
• ensure equal treatment among both skilled and
  unskilled
• Struggling to Provide Social Protection to
  Migrants
Safety at works


                   19 Workers Die in
                   Lethal
Death across the   Construction
rail way Vietnam   Work Accident
                   CHINA
Occupational injuries by industry, latest year
Where is safety equipment ?
Reported cases of occupational disease
Occupational safety and health (OSH)
The policy
• improved occupational injury and disease
  reporting systems, stronger labour inspection
  regimes and expanded coverage of workers.
• A win-win policy, as sound safety and health
  practices are good for workers as well as for
  business.
• The Factories and General Labour Laws
  Inspection Department
Youth employment (aged 15 to 24 years)
Youth employment (aged 15 to 24
                 years)
• What they achieve as workers, entrepreneurs, innovators,
  agents of change, citizens, leaders, and parents will shape
  future economic, social, political, and technological
  developments.

• They are the region’s greatest assets, but their potential is not
  being fully realized. In large part this is because they lack
  access to productive and decent work and, oftentimes, to
  sufficient educational opportunities.
Youth unemployment indicators in selected
            Asian countries
Linkages between youth employment and
              child labour
Child labour and lack of access to education exacerbates
youth employment challenge

       Education enrolment and completion
       rates
The policy
• Educational support: increased investments in
  education, particularly in primary and secondary
  education in the lower-income ASEAN economies

• Promote career training :encourage companies
  to invest in workers’ skills and improve access to
  new technologies which improves productivity
  and strengthen competitiveness.

• Create youth employment: provide job seeker
  assistance and information. Subsidize those
  company who’re hiring fresh graduated student
Planning
ASEAN COMMUNITY
ASEAN COMMUNITY
The Three Pillars of the ASEAN COMMUNITY


1. ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY COMMUNITY (APSC)

2. ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC)

3. ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY (ASCC)
ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY COMMUNITY
ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY
   COMMUNITY (APSC) BLUEPRINT
• ASEAN Political Security Community is one of
  the cooperation among the three pillars of
  the ASEAN Community that focuses on
  creating confidence, stability and peace in
  the region to ensure that ASEAN citizen live
  together in peace and free from the threat of
  the military and the threat of drug and
  transnational crime.
Objective of APSC
1. A RULES-BASED COMMUNITY OF SHARED VALUES AND NORMS
Objective of APSC
2. A COHESIVE, PEACEFUL AND RESILIENT REGION WITH
SHAREDRESPONSIBILITY FOR COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY
Objective of APSC
3. A DYNAMIC AND OUTWARD-LOOKING REGION IN AN INCREASINGLY
INTEGRATED AND INTERDEPENDENT WORLD
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
         (AEC) BLUEPRINT
• ASEAN Economic Community or AEC is one
  of the cooperation among the three pillars of
  the ASEAN Community that shall be the goal
  of regional economic integration by 2015
• In short, the AEC will transform ASEAN into a
  region with free movement of goods,
  services, investment, skilled labor, and freer
  flow of capital.
key characteristics of AEC

• Single Market and Production Base

• Competitive Economic Region

• Equitable Economic Development

• Integration into the Global Economy
The areas of cooperation
•   Human resources development and capacity building
•   Recognition of professional qualifications
•   Consultation on economic and financial polices
•   Trade financing
•   Infrastructure and communications connectivity
•   Electronic transactions through e-ASEAN
•   Industrial integration to promote regional sourcing
•   Enhancing private sector involvement for the building
    of AEC
Challenges for AEC

• Inadequate resources and institutional

  capacity

• Weak coordination

• Insufficient political will
Benefits of AEC




       Source: Schematic drawn by author based on arguments summarized in Plummer
       and Chia (2009)
ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY
ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL
  COMMUNITY (ASCC) BLUEPRINT
• ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY
  or ASCC is one of the cooperation
  among the three pillars of the ASEAN
  Community that focused on nurturing
  the human, cultural and natural
  resources for sustained development in
  a harmonious and people-oriented
  ASEAN.
ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND
           ELEMENTS
• Human Development
ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND
            ELEMENTS
• Social Welfare and Protection
ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND
             ELEMENTS
• Social Justice and Rights
ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND
            ELEMENTS
• Ensuring Environmental Sustainability
ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND
            ELEMENTS
• Building ASEAN Identity
ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND
            ELEMENTS
• Narrowing The Development Gap
ASEAN HIGHWAY NETWORK
ASEAN HIGHWAY NETWORK
• The ASEAN Highway Network Project aims to
  connect the high potential area in ASEAN.
• These project has total of 23 routes.
• By 2020 The highways which is assigned to be
  international highways will be develop to the
  class 1 or primary class
Greater Mekong Subregion : GMS
• A development project formed by the Asian
  Development Bank in 1992
• Brought together the six states of the
  Mekong River basin, namely Cambodia, Laos,
  Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and the
  Yunnan Province of China.
GMS Strategic Framework for 2012-
                2022
• strengthen regional cooperation
• including more effective resource utilization
• more careful balancing of development with
  environmental concerns
• ETC.
Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy
Priorities for the ASEAN-5




                             104
EXITING FROM POLICY SUPPORT
            The Cost of the Crisis

Table 1. General Government Overall Fiscal Balances
                 (In percent of GDP)




                                                      105
EXITING FROM POLICY SUPPORT
                   The Cost of the Crisis

Table 2. Comparison of the 2009 Fiscal Positions Across the ASEAN-5
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)




                                                                106
Post-Crisis Outlook

Table 3. Comparison of the 2010 Fiscal Positions Across the ASEAN-5




                                                                107
Post-Crisis Outlook
Table 4. General Government Debt and Primary Balance (In percent of
GDP)




                                                               108
Exit from Fiscal Policy Support




       Given the strong economic rebound in all the ASEAN-5,
these economies are already beginning to identify and
implement their exit strategies from fiscal policy support.

                                                               109
THE ROLE OF PUBLIC POLICY IN STRENGTHENING
        FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL


                   1. Key Challenges: Addressing
                      Infrastructure Gaps



                   Infrastructure needs remain
                   significant in most of the
                   ASEAN-5 economies.


                                             110
Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps

Table 5. Ranking on Basic Infrastructure
in the Asia-Pacific




                                                111
Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps

       Private Infrastructure Investment




                                            112
Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps

             Public Investment




                                            113
Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
       Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
                an Ageing Population
              Table 6. Private Consumption
                   (In percent of GDP)




                                              114
Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
       Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
                an Ageing Population




     - Demographics           - Social security systems

           - Level of financial development
                                                          115
Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
       Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
                an Ageing Population
           Table 7. Poverty and Inequality Indicators




                                                        116
Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption,
       Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for
                an Ageing Population
          Table 8. Social Spending (In percent of GDP)




                                                         117
FISCAL SPACE TO FOSTER MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH

  Creating Fiscal Space by Re-Orienting Spending Priorities
Table 9. General Government Expenditure Structure: Selected Asian Economies, 2008




                                                                           118
FISCAL SPACE TO FOSTER MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH

  Creating Fiscal Space through Revenue Reforms
Table 10. Revenue Structure: Selected Asian Economies, 2008 (Or most recent
available)




                                                                          119
CONCLUSIONS

What public policies could help address these long-term
growth challenges?

- Promoting private infrastructure investment and
enhancing public investment

- Supporting private consumption, alleviating poverty and
preparing for an ageing
population


                                                      120
CONCLUSIONS

What policies could create the necessary fiscal space for
additional public spending in these
areas?
  - Broadening tax bases can increase tax revenue
  efficiency.
   - Containing wage bills, transfers, and subsidies,
   including by improved targeting and rationalizing of
   subsidies.


                                                          121
CONCLUSIONS

- Increasing the efficiency of public investment to ensure
better quality and lower costs
through improvements in project appraisal and selection.

 - Taking advantage of private-sector efficiencies
 through PPPs, provided adequate safeguards and
 frameworks are in place.

- Controlling fiscal risks, including from guarantees and
other contingent liabilities to reduce fiscal vulnerability and
to preserve fiscal space in the future.
                                                           122
References



IMF Working Paper, Asia and Pacific Department and
     Fiscal Affairs Department, 2010, Post-Crisis Fiscal
     Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5.




                                                           123
ASEAN CENTRAL BANK
Plan of Presentation
• General Data
• Policy Challenge
General Data
Central bank Policy objectives
Institutional Frameworks for Monetary
                 Policy
Central bank rates
The percent change of inflation in average
   consumer price in ASEAN countries
The percent change of inflation in average
   consumer price in ASEAN countries
The percent change of inflation in average
  consumer price in ASEAN 5 countries
The percent change of inflation in average
   consumer price in CLMV countries
List of ASEAN countries by foreign-exchange
                  reserve
List of ASEAN countries by foreign-exchange
                  reserve
The independence of central bank in ASEAN
               countries
The percent of GDP of general government
      gross debt in ASEAN countries
The percent of GDP of general government
      gross debt in ASEAN countries
The percent of GDP of general government
     gross debt in ASEAN 5 countries
The percent of GDP of general government
      gross debt in CLMV countries
Policy Challenge
Policy Challenge

• 1. Payment system development
      1.1 Set the payment system in the same
  standard
      1.2 The development of payment system
  among different currency in ASEAN
Policy Challenge

• 2. Capital movement liberalization
      2.1 Capital movement barrier reduction
      2.2 The supporting of local currency in
  term of internal business in ASEAN
Policy Challenge

• 3 Banking system and banking service
  development
     3.1 Qualified ASEAN Bank: QAB
     3.2 The decreasing of business banking
  problems among countries in ASEAN
Commerce
Agriculture Goods
Industrial
Industrial
Total ratio of the exports of the ASEAN countries
   distinguished by the group of the product
                                                   Unit :
    Indonesia
                                                   Percentage
     Malaysia
     Vietnam
    Singapore
     Thailand
    Philippines
     Cambodia

                  0%    20%        40%      60%           80%           100%


                         Fuel and Mineral   Agriculture and Fisheries
             Industry
Principal Import and Export
                          Principal imports                                 Principal exports

 BRUNEI     machinery and transport equipment,                  crude oil, natural gas, and garments.
            manufactured goods, food, and chemicals.


MYANMAR     fabric, petroleum products, fertilizer, plastics,   natural gas, wood products, pulses, beans,
            machinery, transport equipment, cement,             fish, rice, clothing, and jade and gems
            construction materials, crude oil, food products,
            and edible oil.
CAMBODIA    petroleum products, cigarettes, gold,               clothing, timber, rubber, rice, fish,
            construction materials, machinery, motor            tobacco, and footwear
            vehicles, and pharmaceutical products.
INDONESIA   machinery and equipment, chemicals, fuels and       oil and gas, electrical appliances, plywood,
            foodstuffs.                                         textiles, and rubber.


  LAOS      machinery and equipment, vehicles, fuel, and        wood products, coffee, electricity, tin,
            consumer goods.                                     copper, and gold.
Principal Import and Export (Cont)
                           Principal imports                                   Principal Exports

MALAYSIA      electronics, machinery, petroleum                electronic equipment, petroleum
              products, plastics, vehicles, iron and steel     and liquefied natural gas, wood and wood
              products, and chemicals                          products, palm oil, rubber, textiles, and chemicals.
PHILIPPINES   electronic products, mineral fuels,              semiconductors and electronic
              machinery and transport equipment, iron          products, transport equipment, garments, copper
              and steel, textile fabrics, grains, chemicals,   products, petroleum products, coconut oils, and
              and plastic.                                     fruits
SINGAPORE     machinery and equipment, mineral fuels,          machinery and equipment (including electronics),
              chemicals, foodstuffs, and consumer              consumer goods, pharmaceuticals and other
              goods.                                           chemicals, and mineral fuels.

THAILAND      capital goods, intermediate goods and raw        textiles and footwear, fishery products, rice,
              materials, consumer goods, and fuels.            rubber, jewelry, automobiles, computers, and
                                                               electrical appliances.
 VIETNAM      machinery and equipment, petroleum               crude oil, marine products, rice,
              products, fertilizer, steel products, raw        coffee, rubber, tea, garments, and shoes.
              cotton, grain, cement, and motorcycles.
Import Value Index



                             Myanmar
                             Thailand
                             Vietnam
Value




                             Laos
                             Malaysia
                             Singapore
                             Cambodia
                             Brunei
                             Indonesia
                             Philippines



              Year
AEC Percent Import as GDP




Myanmar       Thailand   Vietnam   Laos        Malaysia
Singapore     Cambodia   Brunei    Indonesia   Philipphine
The ratio of the goods export compared to the GDP
       of the countries in the ASEAN in 2010

                                    Unit : % of
  Singapore
   Malaysia                         GDP
    Brunei
    Vietnam
    Thailand
     ASEAN
   Cambodia
     Laos
  Philippines
   Indonesia
   Myanmar
Export Market of the ASEAN in 2010
                                 Unit : % of export of
    Country        Number 1      each countriesNumber 3
                                   Number 2
   Myanmar       ASEAN (49.2%)      India (12.6%)       China (6.7%)
      Laos       ASEAN (47.3%)      USA (23.1%)       Australia (11.5%)
   Singapore     ASEAN (30.0%)      China (9.8%)        Japan (9.4%)
    Malaysia     ASEAN (25.4%)     China (12.6%)       EU27 (10.7%)
    Thailand     ASEAN (49.2%)     EU27 (11.2%)       China (10.99%)
   Philippines   ASEAN (22.7%)     Japan (15.2%)        USA (14.7%)
   Indonesia     ASEAN (21.1%)     Japan (16.3%)         EU (10.9%)
    Vietnam       USA (19.7%)      EU27 (15.8%)        ASEAN (14.3%)
   Cambodia       USA (34.1%)      EU27 (16.7%)        ASEAN (12.6%)
     Brunei      Japan(43.4%)    South Korea(16.7%)    ASEAN (12.3%)
Export Value Index



                             Myanmar
                             Thailand
                             Vietnam
Value




                             Laos
                             Malaysia
                             Singapore
                             Cambodia
                             Brunei
                             Indonesia
                             Philippines



             Year
AEC Percent Export as GDP




Myanmar     Thailand   Vietnam   Laos        Malaysia
Singapore   Cambodia   Brunei    Indonesia   Philippines
Comparing the Export-Import Value of Total Goods Categories of
         Each Country in the ASEAN Market in 2012
ASEAN’S TRADE WITH MAIN PARTNERS : GROUPS
ASEAN’S TRADE WITH MAIN PARTNERS : COUNTRIES
FDI
Global and ASEAN output growth
                        In percent




Source: ADB (2010). Asian Development Outlook2010 Update
Note: Forecast for 2010-2011.
Global FDI inflows in billion USD




Source: UNCTAD (2010b). Global Investment Trends Monitor, Second and
   Third Quarters of 2010,Fig. 1, p. 1.
Total FDI inflows to ASEAN, 2000-2009
               (in million USD)




       Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
FDI inflows to ASEAN by economic sector,
          2000-2009 in percent)




        Source: ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
Breakdown of FDI inflows to the services
    sector, 2005-2009 (in million USD)




        Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
FDI inflows to ASEAN by source
country, 2006-2009 (in million USD)




     Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
Intra-ASEAN FDI Inflows, 2009
           (in million USD)




    Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
Intra-ASEAN FDI inflows, 2000-2009
(in million USD and percent share of total FDI inflows)




            Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
FDI inflows as a ratio of GDP
               in percent




   Source: ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
FDI inflows as gross fixed capital
       formation (in percent)




            Source UNCTAD
Top host economies for FDI in 2010 –2012




Source: UNCTAD (2010a). World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-2012,figure
   14, page 13.
Note: Numbers in parentheses before the name of selected countries are their
   rankings in 2009.
Measuring competitiveness in ASEAN: Global
Competitiveness Index (GCI), Average for ASEAN
Policy
 HOST COUNTRY
≫ Financial Incentives
≫ Infrastructure
≫ Red Tape*

 HOME COUNTRY
≫ Expropriation of assets
≫ Double Taxation-Earned Profit
≫ Cash Flow Insurance
Policy to encourage FDI

 ∎ “RED TAPE” : The cutting of RED TAPE or RED TAPE
reduction
        Save Time  Cost Reduction
Law, Local requirement, infrastructure, economic zone
  Example : Myanmar
Trade
Trade in Goods
Trade in Commercial Services
  (services excluding government services)
COMPETITIVENESS RANKINGS BY ASEAN REGION

     Country   Global Competitiveness Index 2011-2012

Singapore                        2
Malaysia                        21
Brunei                          28
Thailand                        39
Indonesia                       46
Vietnam                         65
Philippines                     75
Cambodia                        97
Myanmar                         NA
Lao PDR                         NA
Table 2. Trade Balance Of Each Country in the ASEAN Market in
2006 - 2010
                                                      Unit : US$ million
  Country      2006        2007    2008      2009             2010
Thailand       3,493       7,690   9,678     7,498           13,650
Indonesia      -488       -1,500   -13,797   -3,098           -5,565
Malaysia       9,812       9,139   13,248    9,327            5,824
Philippines   -2,022      -4,804   -7,049    -5,029           -3,490
Singapore     21,533      29,237   33,751    22,620          31,906
Vietnam       -6,228      -7,695   -9,702    -8,128          -10,906
Brunei         983          976    1,376      -574            -648
Cambodia      -1,761      -1,994   -2,683    -2,135           -4,567
Myanmar        933          421     498       278             -688
Laos           -528        -907    -1,191    -1,221           -1,414
Source: Global Trade Atlas, 2011
Comparing the Trade Balance of Each Country
    in the ASEAN Market in 2006-2010
Intra and Extra Trade

   1993                    201
                            1




    Source: aseansec.org
Balance of Trade AEC




-

-

-
    Myanmar      Thailand    Vietnam    Laos
    Malaysia     Singapore   Cambodia   Brunei
Term of Trade




Myanmar    Thailand    Vietnam    Laos
Malaysia   Singapore   Cambodia   Brunei
The Global Competitiveness Index 2011 – 2012 rankings
                          GCI 2011-2012            GCI 2010-2011
   Country/Economy
                     Rank            Score    Rank           Change
Singapore             2               5.63     3                   1
Malaysia             21               5.08    26                   5
Brunei Darussalam    28               4.78    28                   0
Thailand             39               4.52    38                   -1
Indonesia            46               4.38    44                   -2
Vietnam              65               4.24    59                   -6
Philippines          75               4.08    85               10
Cambodia             97               3.85    109              12
Lao PDR               -                   -    -                   -
Myanmar               -                   -    -                   -
FTA ASEAN +6


Goods :                                  Goods , Services
2006                                     and Investment
Services :                               : 1 June 2010
2007
Investment :       ASEAN – SOUTH KOREA
2009
Goods , Services
and Investment
                                    Goods , Services
: 1 June 2009
                                    and Investment : 1
                                    January 2010
                   Goods and Services :
FTA
6
FTA : ASEAN AND CHINA
     China’s trade tariffs on ASEAN products have been 0.1 percent
on average since 2010, compared with its 9.8 percent tariff on all
other foreign trade
         The tariff lines which are subject to the tariff reduction or
elimination program under this Agreement shall be categorized for
tariff reduction and elimination as follows :
       - Normal Track
     - Sensitive Track
          - 20 % in 2012 , 0-5% in 2018
          - 50 % in 2015 for Highly Sensitive Track
        The proposed rail links between China and ASEAN countries will
facilitate the realization of ASEAN’s ambition of building an ASEAN
economic community by 2015.
FTA : IN THE FUTURE



   GCC                                 MERCOSUR




Bahrain ,                             Argentina ,
Kuwait ,                              Brazil ,
Oman ,                                Paraguay ,
Qatar , Saudi     EU        RUSSIA    Uruguay and
Arabia and                            Venezuela
UAE
Policy to encourage regional
            trade integration
• Reduce tariff to zero percent
• Reduce NTBs including countervailing duties,
  anti dumping duties, quota, subsidies
• Support Labor movement
• Flying geese of South East Asia (Innovation
  Cycle)
• Do what we are good at followed H-O model
• Make Trade Route more convenient
Policy Solution
Four Cores

•   Property Rights
•   Government Regulations
•   Taxation
•   Marketable Permits
• Economic growth does not tell us about
  penury reduction.

• An indigent is still destitute. Life is still
  unprivileged. Personal is deprived. Education
  is lower than acceptable standard.
MDGs
Quote
• James Speth, the executive
director of the United Nations
Development Program,

• “Poverty is no longer inevitable. The world has
  the material and natural resources, the know-
  how and the people to make a poverty-free world
  a reality less than a generation. This is not wholly
  idealism but a practical and achievable goal”
Poverty and Inequality Policy
Todaro;
• Altering the functional distribution of income
  through policies designed to change relative
  factor prices
• Modifying the size distribution through
  progressive redistribution of asset ownership
• Reducing the size distribution of the upper levels
  through progressive income and wealth tax
• Direct transfer payments and the public provision
  of goods and services
(Cont)
• World Bank 1990
- Promote market-oriented economic growth
- Direct basic health and education services to
  the poor
• Dwight H. Perkins
- Improving opportunities for the poor
- Income transfer and Safety Nets
Inequality, economic size, and
          demographic size
Demographic size
- Indonesia, Myanmar,
 Thailand, Malaysia,
Vietnam

Economic Size
- Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore,
Philippines
• J. Malcolm Dowling and Ma. Rebecca Valenzuela
For rural poverty
- Uplift the status of women
- Relax tenancy regulations
- Check rural credit schemes
- Encourage labor migration
- Provide rural infrastructure
- Appropriate currency exchange rate
- Establish property right
Cont.
For Urban Poverty
- Accelerate economic growth
- Provision of social services
- Dealing with squatters
- Land use
Human Development Policy
• Holistic Policy about health and education

- Medical Facilities and services
- Encourage basic physical and mental health
  care among citizens
- Support Primary and Secondary School
- Create norms to be reading society
Tax Super
                 Rich
               (Buffet)




  Highlight
              Revenue      Fee from
     on
                          congested
 Individual    Policy       goods
Income Tax




              Stabilize
                 CIT
Policy for HIV/ AIDS in Asia
• Promote the use of condoms among sex workers
  and bisexual men
• Publicize the necessary for using measures to
  protect against AIDS, such as condoms, and
  highlight the importance of not sharing needles
• Make condoms and needles widely available and
  at reasonable prices, or supplied free in clinics
• General promotion of HIV/ AIDS awareness
  through public media and NGOs, newspaper,
  magazine articles
Trade Policy
For support outward orientation

• Remove quotas and tariffs and other forms of
  protection, especially on capital and
  intermediate goods
• Allow the current to float with a market-
  determined exchange rate, and ensure
  macroeconomic stability through prudent
  monetary and fiscal policies.
Cont
• Reduce unnecessary regulatory burdens,
  bureaucratic costs, and red tape that add to
  business costs
• Keep factor market flexible, especially for
  labor and credit, with market determined
  wages and interest rates

So as to open country to global market, and
expand market access
Cont
• Regional Trade Agreement

- Sometimes it’s considered as Trade Blocs or
   Trade Block.
- FTA, Customs Markets, Common Market,
Economic Union,
Trade Policy According to Theory
• Harrod – Domar
      Theory




               Export in commodity          Myanmar = Natural
               requiring inputs that it’s   Resource, Gas, unskilled
               available in country and     labour-intensive
               import in commodity          Thailand = Agricultural
               requiring inputs that it’s   output, labour –
               scare in country. It         intensive
               depends on factor
               endowment                    Malaysia = Natural Gas,
                                            Petroleum




                                                                       Example
Cont.
• Stopher – Samuelson Theorem and labor
  movement



          If country A and            Subsequently,     Wage
          country B do a trade        rate in Singapore,
          under unequal wage          Philippines, Thailand
          rate – assuming Wage        may be fall down
          in A is higher than in B,   according    to    this
          trade will cause wage       theory. Wage rate in
          rate increase in B and      Cambodia,     Vietnam,
          decrease in A.              Laos may decline.
Multilateral Trade Negotiaions and WTO
Purpose
             • The global average tariff on manufactured goods was
               reduced by about one third.




             • Agricultural protection, which the industrialized countries
               had always excluded from negotiations, was incorporated
               for the first time.



             • Participants agreed to phase out the Multi- Fiber
               Agreement and the Agreement on Textiles and clothing,
               which restricted textile and clothing imports in industrial
               countries, with complete elimination by January 1, 200
Cont
• Industrial countries, especially the United
  States, won stricter adherence to trade –
  related intellectual property rights, or TRIPS,
  that prevent the use of patented material and
  the production of generic “copycat” products
  without permission. They also won agreement
  on new rule on investment and trade in
  services.
Grand Bargain
The industrialized countries promised
• A significant reduction in tariffs
• The end of the Multi-fiber Agreement
• Reductions in the agricultural subsidies
The developing countries promised
• Larger reductions in their own tariff
• Agreement on new rules on investment, services,
  and TRIPS
• Support for new WTO
Inclusive Growth  Pro-poor Strategy


          Economic growth          This idea leads to
          was shared by the           avoidance of
          poor not only the       Kuznet’s Curve said
           rich. It’s tackled        that the more
            down. It’s not         economic growth
          concentrated on       take place, the more
             only CEOs or        is income inequality.
               manager            As inclusive growth
                                  happened, income
                                inequality is believed
                                   to be eradicated.
Being Welfare State


                          Welfare
                          Program
              Effective
              Law

High
progressive
Tax
underdevelopment Criteria
Development Criteria
One Vision
One Identity
One Community
Thank You

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The Economy of Southeast Asia

  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Economic Facts • GDP • GDP Growth Rate • GDP 2011 • GDP Per Capita • GNI Per Capita • Human Development Index • Poverty Rate • Inequality Problem represented by Gini Coefficient
  • 5. GDP (Current Million U.S.$) GDP Current U.S. $ (Million) Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year Source: World Bank
  • 6.
  • 9. GDP Per capita (Current U.S.$)
  • 12.
  • 13. 2011 HDI Country HDI Rank Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Lao Cambodia Myanmar Source : UNDP
  • 14.
  • 15. Source: World Bank Average 67.2
  • 18.
  • 19. Poverty Rate under 1.25$ Cambodia Philippines Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Singapore Indonesia Myanmar Lao Brunei 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 year Source: World Bank
  • 20.
  • 22.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Reason for Inequality • Difference in - Opportunity - Education - Social Status - Skill - Physical and mental collalteral
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. 2011 Gini Coefficient by World Bank Country Gini Thailand Cambodia Vietnam Myanmar NA Malaysia Brunei NA Indonesia Singapore Lao Philippines
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. Developing countries and trade probelm Unstable Export Market Worsening Terms of Trade Limited Accessed to global market
  • 38. ASEAN Labor management presentation [Warawut Ruankham] [Sattawat Aunlimphan] [Ministry of labour] [AEC]
  • 39. Overview • Asean population • Recent labour market • Youth employment • Education • Intra-regional labour migration in ASEAN • Occupational safety and health (OSH)
  • 43.
  • 44. What would happen ? • Aging society
  • 45. Population Policy • Family planning • Authoritarian Approach (Coercion and quotas) • Sterilization campaign • Developed countries help provide contraceptives to Less developed countries. • Improvement in women’s education
  • 46. Recent labour market trends • Increasing labour supply creates pressure • Gender gap weakens labour force participation
  • 48. Job growth and labour productivity equally important
  • 49. Employment shifts from agriculture to industry and services
  • 54. 7 Careers that can move freely
  • 56.
  • 57. 1998-2005 Registered Migrants per Sex and Nationalities in Thailand (Ministry of Labor)
  • 59. The policy • Ensure that migration is going to be mutually beneficial for all parties • Regularize the migration: regulate admissions • discourage employers hiring undocumented migrants and give migrant workers legal status • ensure equal treatment among both skilled and unskilled • Struggling to Provide Social Protection to Migrants
  • 60. Safety at works 19 Workers Die in Lethal Death across the Construction rail way Vietnam Work Accident CHINA
  • 61. Occupational injuries by industry, latest year
  • 62. Where is safety equipment ?
  • 63. Reported cases of occupational disease
  • 64. Occupational safety and health (OSH)
  • 65. The policy • improved occupational injury and disease reporting systems, stronger labour inspection regimes and expanded coverage of workers. • A win-win policy, as sound safety and health practices are good for workers as well as for business. • The Factories and General Labour Laws Inspection Department
  • 66. Youth employment (aged 15 to 24 years)
  • 67. Youth employment (aged 15 to 24 years) • What they achieve as workers, entrepreneurs, innovators, agents of change, citizens, leaders, and parents will shape future economic, social, political, and technological developments. • They are the region’s greatest assets, but their potential is not being fully realized. In large part this is because they lack access to productive and decent work and, oftentimes, to sufficient educational opportunities.
  • 68. Youth unemployment indicators in selected Asian countries
  • 69. Linkages between youth employment and child labour Child labour and lack of access to education exacerbates youth employment challenge Education enrolment and completion rates
  • 70. The policy • Educational support: increased investments in education, particularly in primary and secondary education in the lower-income ASEAN economies • Promote career training :encourage companies to invest in workers’ skills and improve access to new technologies which improves productivity and strengthen competitiveness. • Create youth employment: provide job seeker assistance and information. Subsidize those company who’re hiring fresh graduated student
  • 73. ASEAN COMMUNITY The Three Pillars of the ASEAN COMMUNITY 1. ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY COMMUNITY (APSC) 2. ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC) 3. ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY (ASCC)
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 77. ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY COMMUNITY (APSC) BLUEPRINT • ASEAN Political Security Community is one of the cooperation among the three pillars of the ASEAN Community that focuses on creating confidence, stability and peace in the region to ensure that ASEAN citizen live together in peace and free from the threat of the military and the threat of drug and transnational crime.
  • 78.
  • 79. Objective of APSC 1. A RULES-BASED COMMUNITY OF SHARED VALUES AND NORMS
  • 80. Objective of APSC 2. A COHESIVE, PEACEFUL AND RESILIENT REGION WITH SHAREDRESPONSIBILITY FOR COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY
  • 81. Objective of APSC 3. A DYNAMIC AND OUTWARD-LOOKING REGION IN AN INCREASINGLY INTEGRATED AND INTERDEPENDENT WORLD
  • 83. ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC) BLUEPRINT • ASEAN Economic Community or AEC is one of the cooperation among the three pillars of the ASEAN Community that shall be the goal of regional economic integration by 2015 • In short, the AEC will transform ASEAN into a region with free movement of goods, services, investment, skilled labor, and freer flow of capital.
  • 84.
  • 85. key characteristics of AEC • Single Market and Production Base • Competitive Economic Region • Equitable Economic Development • Integration into the Global Economy
  • 86. The areas of cooperation • Human resources development and capacity building • Recognition of professional qualifications • Consultation on economic and financial polices • Trade financing • Infrastructure and communications connectivity • Electronic transactions through e-ASEAN • Industrial integration to promote regional sourcing • Enhancing private sector involvement for the building of AEC
  • 87. Challenges for AEC • Inadequate resources and institutional capacity • Weak coordination • Insufficient political will
  • 88. Benefits of AEC Source: Schematic drawn by author based on arguments summarized in Plummer and Chia (2009)
  • 90. ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY (ASCC) BLUEPRINT • ASEAN SOCIO-CULTURAL COMMUNITY or ASCC is one of the cooperation among the three pillars of the ASEAN Community that focused on nurturing the human, cultural and natural resources for sustained development in a harmonious and people-oriented ASEAN.
  • 91.
  • 92. ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND ELEMENTS • Human Development
  • 93. ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND ELEMENTS • Social Welfare and Protection
  • 94. ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND ELEMENTS • Social Justice and Rights
  • 95. ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND ELEMENTS • Ensuring Environmental Sustainability
  • 96. ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND ELEMENTS • Building ASEAN Identity
  • 97. ASCC CHARACTERISTICS AND ELEMENTS • Narrowing The Development Gap
  • 99. ASEAN HIGHWAY NETWORK • The ASEAN Highway Network Project aims to connect the high potential area in ASEAN. • These project has total of 23 routes. • By 2020 The highways which is assigned to be international highways will be develop to the class 1 or primary class
  • 100.
  • 101. Greater Mekong Subregion : GMS • A development project formed by the Asian Development Bank in 1992 • Brought together the six states of the Mekong River basin, namely Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Yunnan Province of China.
  • 102. GMS Strategic Framework for 2012- 2022 • strengthen regional cooperation • including more effective resource utilization • more careful balancing of development with environmental concerns • ETC.
  • 103.
  • 104. Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5 104
  • 105. EXITING FROM POLICY SUPPORT The Cost of the Crisis Table 1. General Government Overall Fiscal Balances (In percent of GDP) 105
  • 106. EXITING FROM POLICY SUPPORT The Cost of the Crisis Table 2. Comparison of the 2009 Fiscal Positions Across the ASEAN-5 (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) 106
  • 107. Post-Crisis Outlook Table 3. Comparison of the 2010 Fiscal Positions Across the ASEAN-5 107
  • 108. Post-Crisis Outlook Table 4. General Government Debt and Primary Balance (In percent of GDP) 108
  • 109. Exit from Fiscal Policy Support Given the strong economic rebound in all the ASEAN-5, these economies are already beginning to identify and implement their exit strategies from fiscal policy support. 109
  • 110. THE ROLE OF PUBLIC POLICY IN STRENGTHENING FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL 1. Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps Infrastructure needs remain significant in most of the ASEAN-5 economies. 110
  • 111. Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps Table 5. Ranking on Basic Infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific 111
  • 112. Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps Private Infrastructure Investment 112
  • 113. Key Challenges: Addressing Infrastructure Gaps Public Investment 113
  • 114. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption, Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for an Ageing Population Table 6. Private Consumption (In percent of GDP) 114
  • 115. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption, Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for an Ageing Population - Demographics - Social security systems - Level of financial development 115
  • 116. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption, Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for an Ageing Population Table 7. Poverty and Inequality Indicators 116
  • 117. Key Challenges: Strengthening Private Consumption, Alleviating Poverty and Preparing for an Ageing Population Table 8. Social Spending (In percent of GDP) 117
  • 118. FISCAL SPACE TO FOSTER MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH Creating Fiscal Space by Re-Orienting Spending Priorities Table 9. General Government Expenditure Structure: Selected Asian Economies, 2008 118
  • 119. FISCAL SPACE TO FOSTER MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH Creating Fiscal Space through Revenue Reforms Table 10. Revenue Structure: Selected Asian Economies, 2008 (Or most recent available) 119
  • 120. CONCLUSIONS What public policies could help address these long-term growth challenges? - Promoting private infrastructure investment and enhancing public investment - Supporting private consumption, alleviating poverty and preparing for an ageing population 120
  • 121. CONCLUSIONS What policies could create the necessary fiscal space for additional public spending in these areas? - Broadening tax bases can increase tax revenue efficiency. - Containing wage bills, transfers, and subsidies, including by improved targeting and rationalizing of subsidies. 121
  • 122. CONCLUSIONS - Increasing the efficiency of public investment to ensure better quality and lower costs through improvements in project appraisal and selection. - Taking advantage of private-sector efficiencies through PPPs, provided adequate safeguards and frameworks are in place. - Controlling fiscal risks, including from guarantees and other contingent liabilities to reduce fiscal vulnerability and to preserve fiscal space in the future. 122
  • 123. References IMF Working Paper, Asia and Pacific Department and Fiscal Affairs Department, 2010, Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5. 123
  • 125. Plan of Presentation • General Data • Policy Challenge
  • 127. Central bank Policy objectives
  • 128. Institutional Frameworks for Monetary Policy
  • 130. The percent change of inflation in average consumer price in ASEAN countries
  • 131. The percent change of inflation in average consumer price in ASEAN countries
  • 132. The percent change of inflation in average consumer price in ASEAN 5 countries
  • 133. The percent change of inflation in average consumer price in CLMV countries
  • 134. List of ASEAN countries by foreign-exchange reserve
  • 135. List of ASEAN countries by foreign-exchange reserve
  • 136. The independence of central bank in ASEAN countries
  • 137. The percent of GDP of general government gross debt in ASEAN countries
  • 138. The percent of GDP of general government gross debt in ASEAN countries
  • 139. The percent of GDP of general government gross debt in ASEAN 5 countries
  • 140. The percent of GDP of general government gross debt in CLMV countries
  • 142. Policy Challenge • 1. Payment system development 1.1 Set the payment system in the same standard 1.2 The development of payment system among different currency in ASEAN
  • 143. Policy Challenge • 2. Capital movement liberalization 2.1 Capital movement barrier reduction 2.2 The supporting of local currency in term of internal business in ASEAN
  • 144. Policy Challenge • 3 Banking system and banking service development 3.1 Qualified ASEAN Bank: QAB 3.2 The decreasing of business banking problems among countries in ASEAN
  • 149. Total ratio of the exports of the ASEAN countries distinguished by the group of the product Unit : Indonesia Percentage Malaysia Vietnam Singapore Thailand Philippines Cambodia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fuel and Mineral Agriculture and Fisheries Industry
  • 150. Principal Import and Export Principal imports Principal exports BRUNEI machinery and transport equipment, crude oil, natural gas, and garments. manufactured goods, food, and chemicals. MYANMAR fabric, petroleum products, fertilizer, plastics, natural gas, wood products, pulses, beans, machinery, transport equipment, cement, fish, rice, clothing, and jade and gems construction materials, crude oil, food products, and edible oil. CAMBODIA petroleum products, cigarettes, gold, clothing, timber, rubber, rice, fish, construction materials, machinery, motor tobacco, and footwear vehicles, and pharmaceutical products. INDONESIA machinery and equipment, chemicals, fuels and oil and gas, electrical appliances, plywood, foodstuffs. textiles, and rubber. LAOS machinery and equipment, vehicles, fuel, and wood products, coffee, electricity, tin, consumer goods. copper, and gold.
  • 151. Principal Import and Export (Cont) Principal imports Principal Exports MALAYSIA electronics, machinery, petroleum electronic equipment, petroleum products, plastics, vehicles, iron and steel and liquefied natural gas, wood and wood products, and chemicals products, palm oil, rubber, textiles, and chemicals. PHILIPPINES electronic products, mineral fuels, semiconductors and electronic machinery and transport equipment, iron products, transport equipment, garments, copper and steel, textile fabrics, grains, chemicals, products, petroleum products, coconut oils, and and plastic. fruits SINGAPORE machinery and equipment, mineral fuels, machinery and equipment (including electronics), chemicals, foodstuffs, and consumer consumer goods, pharmaceuticals and other goods. chemicals, and mineral fuels. THAILAND capital goods, intermediate goods and raw textiles and footwear, fishery products, rice, materials, consumer goods, and fuels. rubber, jewelry, automobiles, computers, and electrical appliances. VIETNAM machinery and equipment, petroleum crude oil, marine products, rice, products, fertilizer, steel products, raw coffee, rubber, tea, garments, and shoes. cotton, grain, cement, and motorcycles.
  • 152.
  • 153.
  • 154. Import Value Index Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Value Laos Malaysia Singapore Cambodia Brunei Indonesia Philippines Year
  • 155. AEC Percent Import as GDP Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Laos Malaysia Singapore Cambodia Brunei Indonesia Philipphine
  • 156. The ratio of the goods export compared to the GDP of the countries in the ASEAN in 2010 Unit : % of Singapore Malaysia GDP Brunei Vietnam Thailand ASEAN Cambodia Laos Philippines Indonesia Myanmar
  • 157. Export Market of the ASEAN in 2010 Unit : % of export of Country Number 1 each countriesNumber 3 Number 2 Myanmar ASEAN (49.2%) India (12.6%) China (6.7%) Laos ASEAN (47.3%) USA (23.1%) Australia (11.5%) Singapore ASEAN (30.0%) China (9.8%) Japan (9.4%) Malaysia ASEAN (25.4%) China (12.6%) EU27 (10.7%) Thailand ASEAN (49.2%) EU27 (11.2%) China (10.99%) Philippines ASEAN (22.7%) Japan (15.2%) USA (14.7%) Indonesia ASEAN (21.1%) Japan (16.3%) EU (10.9%) Vietnam USA (19.7%) EU27 (15.8%) ASEAN (14.3%) Cambodia USA (34.1%) EU27 (16.7%) ASEAN (12.6%) Brunei Japan(43.4%) South Korea(16.7%) ASEAN (12.3%)
  • 158. Export Value Index Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Value Laos Malaysia Singapore Cambodia Brunei Indonesia Philippines Year
  • 159. AEC Percent Export as GDP Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Laos Malaysia Singapore Cambodia Brunei Indonesia Philippines
  • 160.
  • 161. Comparing the Export-Import Value of Total Goods Categories of Each Country in the ASEAN Market in 2012
  • 162. ASEAN’S TRADE WITH MAIN PARTNERS : GROUPS
  • 163. ASEAN’S TRADE WITH MAIN PARTNERS : COUNTRIES
  • 164. FDI
  • 165. Global and ASEAN output growth In percent Source: ADB (2010). Asian Development Outlook2010 Update Note: Forecast for 2010-2011.
  • 166. Global FDI inflows in billion USD Source: UNCTAD (2010b). Global Investment Trends Monitor, Second and Third Quarters of 2010,Fig. 1, p. 1.
  • 167. Total FDI inflows to ASEAN, 2000-2009 (in million USD) Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
  • 168. FDI inflows to ASEAN by economic sector, 2000-2009 in percent) Source: ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
  • 169. Breakdown of FDI inflows to the services sector, 2005-2009 (in million USD) Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
  • 170. FDI inflows to ASEAN by source country, 2006-2009 (in million USD) Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
  • 171. Intra-ASEAN FDI Inflows, 2009 (in million USD) Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
  • 172. Intra-ASEAN FDI inflows, 2000-2009 (in million USD and percent share of total FDI inflows) Source ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
  • 173. FDI inflows as a ratio of GDP in percent Source: ASEAN Secretariat FDI Database
  • 174. FDI inflows as gross fixed capital formation (in percent) Source UNCTAD
  • 175. Top host economies for FDI in 2010 –2012 Source: UNCTAD (2010a). World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-2012,figure 14, page 13. Note: Numbers in parentheses before the name of selected countries are their rankings in 2009.
  • 176. Measuring competitiveness in ASEAN: Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), Average for ASEAN
  • 177. Policy HOST COUNTRY ≫ Financial Incentives ≫ Infrastructure ≫ Red Tape* HOME COUNTRY ≫ Expropriation of assets ≫ Double Taxation-Earned Profit ≫ Cash Flow Insurance
  • 178. Policy to encourage FDI ∎ “RED TAPE” : The cutting of RED TAPE or RED TAPE reduction  Save Time  Cost Reduction Law, Local requirement, infrastructure, economic zone Example : Myanmar
  • 179. Trade
  • 181. Trade in Commercial Services (services excluding government services)
  • 182. COMPETITIVENESS RANKINGS BY ASEAN REGION Country Global Competitiveness Index 2011-2012 Singapore 2 Malaysia 21 Brunei 28 Thailand 39 Indonesia 46 Vietnam 65 Philippines 75 Cambodia 97 Myanmar NA Lao PDR NA
  • 183.
  • 184. Table 2. Trade Balance Of Each Country in the ASEAN Market in 2006 - 2010 Unit : US$ million Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thailand 3,493 7,690 9,678 7,498 13,650 Indonesia -488 -1,500 -13,797 -3,098 -5,565 Malaysia 9,812 9,139 13,248 9,327 5,824 Philippines -2,022 -4,804 -7,049 -5,029 -3,490 Singapore 21,533 29,237 33,751 22,620 31,906 Vietnam -6,228 -7,695 -9,702 -8,128 -10,906 Brunei 983 976 1,376 -574 -648 Cambodia -1,761 -1,994 -2,683 -2,135 -4,567 Myanmar 933 421 498 278 -688 Laos -528 -907 -1,191 -1,221 -1,414 Source: Global Trade Atlas, 2011
  • 185. Comparing the Trade Balance of Each Country in the ASEAN Market in 2006-2010
  • 186. Intra and Extra Trade 1993 201 1 Source: aseansec.org
  • 187.
  • 188. Balance of Trade AEC - - - Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Laos Malaysia Singapore Cambodia Brunei
  • 189. Term of Trade Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Laos Malaysia Singapore Cambodia Brunei
  • 190. The Global Competitiveness Index 2011 – 2012 rankings GCI 2011-2012 GCI 2010-2011 Country/Economy Rank Score Rank Change Singapore 2 5.63 3 1 Malaysia 21 5.08 26 5 Brunei Darussalam 28 4.78 28 0 Thailand 39 4.52 38 -1 Indonesia 46 4.38 44 -2 Vietnam 65 4.24 59 -6 Philippines 75 4.08 85 10 Cambodia 97 3.85 109 12 Lao PDR - - - - Myanmar - - - -
  • 191. FTA ASEAN +6 Goods : Goods , Services 2006 and Investment Services : : 1 June 2010 2007 Investment : ASEAN – SOUTH KOREA 2009 Goods , Services and Investment Goods , Services : 1 June 2009 and Investment : 1 January 2010 Goods and Services :
  • 192. FTA
  • 193. 6
  • 194. FTA : ASEAN AND CHINA China’s trade tariffs on ASEAN products have been 0.1 percent on average since 2010, compared with its 9.8 percent tariff on all other foreign trade The tariff lines which are subject to the tariff reduction or elimination program under this Agreement shall be categorized for tariff reduction and elimination as follows : - Normal Track - Sensitive Track - 20 % in 2012 , 0-5% in 2018 - 50 % in 2015 for Highly Sensitive Track The proposed rail links between China and ASEAN countries will facilitate the realization of ASEAN’s ambition of building an ASEAN economic community by 2015.
  • 195. FTA : IN THE FUTURE GCC MERCOSUR Bahrain , Argentina , Kuwait , Brazil , Oman , Paraguay , Qatar , Saudi EU RUSSIA Uruguay and Arabia and Venezuela UAE
  • 196. Policy to encourage regional trade integration • Reduce tariff to zero percent • Reduce NTBs including countervailing duties, anti dumping duties, quota, subsidies • Support Labor movement • Flying geese of South East Asia (Innovation Cycle) • Do what we are good at followed H-O model • Make Trade Route more convenient
  • 197. Policy Solution Four Cores • Property Rights • Government Regulations • Taxation • Marketable Permits
  • 198. • Economic growth does not tell us about penury reduction. • An indigent is still destitute. Life is still unprivileged. Personal is deprived. Education is lower than acceptable standard.
  • 199. MDGs
  • 200. Quote • James Speth, the executive director of the United Nations Development Program, • “Poverty is no longer inevitable. The world has the material and natural resources, the know- how and the people to make a poverty-free world a reality less than a generation. This is not wholly idealism but a practical and achievable goal”
  • 201. Poverty and Inequality Policy Todaro; • Altering the functional distribution of income through policies designed to change relative factor prices • Modifying the size distribution through progressive redistribution of asset ownership • Reducing the size distribution of the upper levels through progressive income and wealth tax • Direct transfer payments and the public provision of goods and services
  • 202. (Cont) • World Bank 1990 - Promote market-oriented economic growth - Direct basic health and education services to the poor • Dwight H. Perkins - Improving opportunities for the poor - Income transfer and Safety Nets
  • 203. Inequality, economic size, and demographic size Demographic size - Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam Economic Size - Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines
  • 204. • J. Malcolm Dowling and Ma. Rebecca Valenzuela For rural poverty - Uplift the status of women - Relax tenancy regulations - Check rural credit schemes - Encourage labor migration - Provide rural infrastructure - Appropriate currency exchange rate - Establish property right
  • 205. Cont. For Urban Poverty - Accelerate economic growth - Provision of social services - Dealing with squatters - Land use
  • 206. Human Development Policy • Holistic Policy about health and education - Medical Facilities and services - Encourage basic physical and mental health care among citizens - Support Primary and Secondary School - Create norms to be reading society
  • 207. Tax Super Rich (Buffet) Highlight Revenue Fee from on congested Individual Policy goods Income Tax Stabilize CIT
  • 208. Policy for HIV/ AIDS in Asia • Promote the use of condoms among sex workers and bisexual men • Publicize the necessary for using measures to protect against AIDS, such as condoms, and highlight the importance of not sharing needles • Make condoms and needles widely available and at reasonable prices, or supplied free in clinics • General promotion of HIV/ AIDS awareness through public media and NGOs, newspaper, magazine articles
  • 209. Trade Policy For support outward orientation • Remove quotas and tariffs and other forms of protection, especially on capital and intermediate goods • Allow the current to float with a market- determined exchange rate, and ensure macroeconomic stability through prudent monetary and fiscal policies.
  • 210. Cont • Reduce unnecessary regulatory burdens, bureaucratic costs, and red tape that add to business costs • Keep factor market flexible, especially for labor and credit, with market determined wages and interest rates So as to open country to global market, and expand market access
  • 211. Cont • Regional Trade Agreement - Sometimes it’s considered as Trade Blocs or Trade Block. - FTA, Customs Markets, Common Market, Economic Union,
  • 212. Trade Policy According to Theory • Harrod – Domar Theory Export in commodity Myanmar = Natural requiring inputs that it’s Resource, Gas, unskilled available in country and labour-intensive import in commodity Thailand = Agricultural requiring inputs that it’s output, labour – scare in country. It intensive depends on factor endowment Malaysia = Natural Gas, Petroleum Example
  • 213. Cont. • Stopher – Samuelson Theorem and labor movement If country A and Subsequently, Wage country B do a trade rate in Singapore, under unequal wage Philippines, Thailand rate – assuming Wage may be fall down in A is higher than in B, according to this trade will cause wage theory. Wage rate in rate increase in B and Cambodia, Vietnam, decrease in A. Laos may decline.
  • 214.
  • 215. Multilateral Trade Negotiaions and WTO Purpose • The global average tariff on manufactured goods was reduced by about one third. • Agricultural protection, which the industrialized countries had always excluded from negotiations, was incorporated for the first time. • Participants agreed to phase out the Multi- Fiber Agreement and the Agreement on Textiles and clothing, which restricted textile and clothing imports in industrial countries, with complete elimination by January 1, 200
  • 216. Cont • Industrial countries, especially the United States, won stricter adherence to trade – related intellectual property rights, or TRIPS, that prevent the use of patented material and the production of generic “copycat” products without permission. They also won agreement on new rule on investment and trade in services.
  • 217. Grand Bargain The industrialized countries promised • A significant reduction in tariffs • The end of the Multi-fiber Agreement • Reductions in the agricultural subsidies The developing countries promised • Larger reductions in their own tariff • Agreement on new rules on investment, services, and TRIPS • Support for new WTO
  • 218. Inclusive Growth  Pro-poor Strategy Economic growth This idea leads to was shared by the avoidance of poor not only the Kuznet’s Curve said rich. It’s tackled that the more down. It’s not economic growth concentrated on take place, the more only CEOs or is income inequality. manager As inclusive growth happened, income inequality is believed to be eradicated.
  • 219. Being Welfare State Welfare Program Effective Law High progressive Tax
  • 222.