Climate Change and Global Health and Health-Earth
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Launch of "climate change and global health", also "Health-Earth", University of Canberra December 9, 2014
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Climate Change and Global Health and Health-Earth
- 1. Anne Harding Centre December 9, 2014 Prof Colin Butler (Australian Research Council Future Fellow) CRICOS #00212K
- 2. “The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable” CRICOS #00212K Health in the Greenhouse Editorial (Lancet, 1989) 2
- 3. CRICOS #00212K Outline “Primary”, “secondary” and “tertiary” effects Attribution type I and type II errors Food price rise Conflict Health-Earth (h-earth) Acknowledgements 3
- 4. CRICOS #00212K “Primary” “Tertiary” 4 “Secondary” Old location
- 5. CRICOS #00212K Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image) 5
- 6. CRICOS #00212K A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14 Country: PHILIPPINES Tacloban Mayor: <100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes built, (7m storm surges destroyed around 90% of city) “The nephew of Imelda Marcos did not mention graft as factor in one of Asia's most corrupt countries” 6
- 7. 7 A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam CRICOS #00212K
- 8. CRICOS #00212K Attribution type I and type II errors 8
- 9. Trenberth, 2011: Climate change attribution - null hypothesis: no human role “science community much too conservative .. too many authors make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in error) – ie conclude any particular extreme event has no anthropogenic (human) component” 9 “Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities” WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 CRICOS #00212K
- 10. Oreskes & Conway (2013): “Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”. conservative? risky? precautionary? risky? Type 1 error spectrum Type 2 10 CRICOS #00212K
- 11. CRICOS #00212K Extreme weather events (anthropogenic climate change contribution?) oil price, speculation, rice panic 11
- 12. CRICOS #00212K Extensive US droughts (2012-2013, Ca 2013-14) – dryness and heat 12
- 13. CRICOS #00212K Conflict and climate change 1989: Lancet editorial: foreshadows conflict 2011: Jarvis et al: "Climate change, ill health, and conflict." BMJ 342: 777-778. 2014: Stern, N. “Climate change is here now and it could lead to global conflict.” The Guardian 13
- 14. Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions CRICOS #00212K Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent Water scarcity From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture] 14
- 15. CRICOS #00212K Type 2 errors: Conclude 100% random, zero anthropogenic contribution to: heatwaves heavy rain/floods severe storms Conclude 100% social, zero eco (environmental) causation famine migration conflict 15
- 16. TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-scale migration, economic collapse CRICOS #00212K SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) Burden of Disease (proportion) PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) now 2050? Year widely accepted
- 17. CRICOS #00212K
- 18. 9 universities, 6 countries, 1 UN Canberra, Aust Liverpool, UK Oulu, Finland Massey, NZ San Diego, US Strathclyde, UK UNU Int’l Inst Glob Health Victoria, Canada Washington, US CRICOS #00212K
- 19. Wael Al-Delaimy, San Diego, US Harry Burns - Strathclyde, UK Colin Butler, Canberra, Aust Tony Capon, UNU Int’l Inst Glob Health Kris Ebi, Washington, US Trevor Hancock, Victoria, Canada Jouni Jaakola, Oulu, Finland Andy Morse, Liverpool, UK John Potter - Massey, New Zealand CRICOS #00212K co-founders
- 20. Al-Delaimy (envtl epi, GH, ISEE) Burns (PH, GH – former CMO Scotland) Butler (eco-envtl epi, MEA, IPCC, NGO) Capon, (PH, director UNU II Glob Health Ebi (envtl epi, IPCC – former chair WG II) Hancock, (PH – 1st leader Canadian Green Party) Jaakola (envtl epi, ISEE, WHO collab cent GEC) Morse (climatologist, Infection & GH) Potter (cancer epi, fmr director Fred Hutchison) CRICOS #00212K co-founders: expertise 20
- 21. CRICOS #00212K H-earth engaged – advocacy Research & research training teaching 21
- 22. Health for all on a single planet CRICOS #00212K idealistic broad emerging Where Earth system science meets planetary social science & health 22
- 23. CRICOS #00212K Toxicity 23 Towards a solution Placebo Vaccine spectrum
- 24. “Social vaccine” spectrum Panic, despair, or indifference 24 CRICOS #00212K “Polyanna”
- 26. CRICOS #00212K Thank you All contributors, CABI staff, Rachel Cutts Tony McMichael, Paul Epstein H-earth: Ro McFarlane, Rachel Davey, Maggie Jamieson Susan Woldenberg Butler 26 26
Editor's Notes
- People searching through the debris of destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a strike by Syrian government forces, in the neighborhood of Jabal Bedro, Aleppo, Syria, Tuesday (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center AMC) Feb 2013 Dear presenting author, Dear submitter, Please find below more information regarding your poster presentation: Abstract ID 3268 Title Is climate change as large a health threat as some have proposed? A new conceptual framework suggests it is. Presenting author Colin Butler Presentation format Poster Poster format The poster should not exceed the following dimensions: 90 cm width x 130 cm height (~world format). Session V-03: Poster Viewing III Time Thursday, 22 Aug, 13:00-14:00 PublicationYour abstract will be published in an online searchable program on the conference website. Furthermore all abstracts are published in an EHP Environmental Health Perspectives (http://www.ehponline.org/) online file, which will have a fully citable DOI number. Setting up your poster on siteThe poster exhibition will take place in hall 4.1.of the Congress Center Basel - there will be staff available to assist you with the installation of your poster. Around 450 posters will be on display during your poster viewing session. Please ensure, that your poster is installed before 10h00. The posters may be uninstalled starting at 15:30 (after the coffee break). For the poster viewing sessions on Tuesday (Aug 20) and Wednesday (Aug 21) we ask you to make sure, that your poster is uninstalled at the end of the conference day to free the poster space for the following poster viewing session the next day. Presenting your posterThe presenters of the posters should be available for questioning during the poster viewing sessions, which will take place from 13h00-14h00. Poster Award CompetitionIf you are a student poster presenter, you have the possiblity to register for the poster award competition for one of the three societies organizing this conference (ISIAQ/ ISES/ISEE). Click on the following link for more information: http://see13.organizers-congress.ch/english/Poster-award-comp.php Online RegistrationPlease ensure, that at least the presenting author is registered for the conference and the presenting author information we received is correct (see above). Posters without a registered presenting author may be cancelled.Online Registration and further information is available through our conference website: www.ehbasel13.org Once again we would like to thank your for your contribution to the conference. We are looking forward to welcoming you soon in Basel!For the organizing committeeThe Registration Office
- Wide-angle satellite image showing Super Typhoon Haiyan approach the Philippines on November 7, 2013.Credit: EUMETSAT http://www.climatecentral.org/news/globe-saw-a-record-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2013-17037
- A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14Country: PHILIPPINESAuthor: Manuel Mogato http://planetark.org/wen/72387 The mayor of the central Philippine city worst hit by a super typhoon a year ago said on Tuesday fewer than 100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes had been built and that thousands were still living in danger zones. Typhoon Haiyan wiped out or damaged practically everything in its path as it swept ashore on Nov. 8, 2013, with seven-meter storm surges destroying around 90 percent of the city of Tacloban in Leyte province. Haiyan killed or left missing close to 8,000 people and displaced as many as four million. &quot;Building more permanent homes is very slow and takes time. Hopefully, by January next year, the pace will pick up,&quot; Mayor Alfred Romualdez, nephew of the Philippines&apos; former first lady, Imelda Marcos, told reporters. He blamed the lack of suitable land where houses which could withstand 250-kph (155-mph) winds could be built but said he hoped the 14,500 homes would be completed by 2017. &quot;There are still 3,000 people in danger zones, many in tents and we want them all transferred to transitional shelters by next month,&quot; Romualdez said. &quot;...One year after typhoon Haiyan, we are back but only about 50 percent,&quot; he said, saying the recovery effort was slowed down by bureaucracy, shortage of manpower and resources and other delays. Construction materials, like galvanized iron sheets, were also scarce, he said, forcing people to use fallen coconut trees to build temporary shelters. Romualdez did not mention graft as a factor in one of Asia&apos;s most corrupt countries. The Philippines came in at 94 out of 175 countries in Transparency International&apos;s corruption perceptions index last year. The Aquino government has a six-year 170 billion pesos ($3.80 billion) master plan to rebuild devastated areas, building about 200,000 homes and providing more sustainable jobs for 2.6 million people who living below the poverty line. (Editing by Nick Macfie)
- Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). &quot;The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future.&quot; Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). &quot;The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future.&quot; Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- Anonymous (1989). &quot;Health in the greenhouse.&quot; Lancet 333: 819-820. Jarvis, L., H. Montgomery, N. Morisetti and I. Gilmore (2011). &quot;Climate change, ill health, and conflict.&quot; BMJ 342: 777-778.
- Fig. 26.2. This conceptual diagram compares the likely burden of disease from the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change with the time at which the effects are likely to be widely accepted as causally related by the general and even the scientific community. Two major European heatwaves since 2000 (France and Russia) killed over 100,000 people. Both extreme events are likely to have been contributed to by climate change. Secondary effects, such as changes to vector-borne diseases, probably have a lower burden of disease. There has been greater scientific resistance to their reality, but this is fading. Tertiary effects such as the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the conflicts in Sudan and Syria are still regarded as speculative by most people, including most scientists. These events have the potential to cause a burden of disease at least of an order of magnitude higher than the others. Waiting for complete consensus is to wait too long.
- Al-Delaimy