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CRICOS #00212K
October 12, 2015
Prof Colin D Butler
Climate change and health
ANU Medical
School
Oct 12, 2015
CRICOS #00212K
Tony McMichael, 2014
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
June, 2015
CRICOS #00212K
“Tackling climate change could be the greatest
global health opportunity of the 21st century”
CRICOS #00212K
“The expense may be considerable, but the
cost of doing nothing is incalculable”
Health in the Greenhouse
E...
CRICOS #00212K
Outline
Basic science of climate change
Health effects – 3 levels of effect
Next week: what doctors can do
CRICOS #00212K
“…slight change in [the atmosphere’s] constituents….”
John Tyndall, 1859
8
Climate change: an old science
CRICOS #00212K
John Tyndall
water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane
reduce heat loss, oxygen, nitrogen virtually
transparent...
CRICOS #00212K
Earth’s Temperature Chart, since
Dinosaur Extinction 65m yrs ago
West Antarctic
ice sheet begins
Arctic ice...
CRICOS #00212K
Last
Glaciation
CO2 has not been this high in >half a million years.
CO2 from fossil fuels, deforestation, ...
CRICOS #00212K
CO2
CH4
N2O
2005
CO2 now
CO2 ppm
N2O ppb
CH4 ppb
Year
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Methane (CH4...
Number of Years Before Present (quasi-log scale)
-2
-3
-4
-5
3
2
1
0
Agriculture
emerges
Mesopotamia
flourishes
End of
las...
Most radiation
absorbed by
Earth, warming it
Most radiation
absorbed by
Earth, warming it
Some energy is
radiated back int...
CRICOS #00212K
CH4 CO2
Green house gases
N2O
Sulfate particles
Radiative forcing
NO2
CH4
O3
CH4
CH4
CO2
Slide adapted from...
CRICOS #00212KCRICOS #00212K
IPCC, Wkg Gp 1 Report, Fourth
Assessment Report, 2007, p. 703
anthropogenic forcings
How vali...
CRICOS #00212K
Physical effects of climate change
Heat
Cold?
Storms
Rainfall changes
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
Average global land ocean temp 0.88°C > 20th century average of 15.6°C, hottest
August in 136-year record, ...
CRICOS #00212Khttp://www.attn.com/stories/2621/middle-east-heat-wave-climate-change
July 30, 2015 “heat dome”
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
Australia: Getting Hotter
from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010
60
50
40
30
20
10
1960 1970 1980...
CRICOS #00212K
Australia: Getting Less Cold
from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010
No. of record cold days [max ...
CRICOS #00212K
1. Thermal expansion
2. Melting land ice – Greenland, Antarctica
3. Other glaciers (eg Alaska, Himalayas)
4...
CRICOS #00212K
Global
mean
sea
level
(mm)
Hay et al, Nature, 2015
CRICOS #00212K
Observed global mean sea level and derived instantaneous sea level rise
Global Environmental Outlook – not ...
CRICOS #00212K
Outline
Health effects – 3 levels of effect
CRICOS #00212K
“Secondary”
“Tertiary”
“Primary”
28
CRICOS #00212K
Prof Colin D Butler
Climate change and health (2/2)
ANU Medical School Oct 19, 2015
Super Typhoon Haiyan ap...
CRICOS #00212K
Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The Philippines
Strongest recorded storm to make landfall
Direct death toll: >5,0...
CRICOS #00212K
A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine
city fails to rebuild homes
Date: 29-Oct-14
Country: PHILIPPINES
T...
CRICOS #00212K
32
A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her
temporary home. “I’m sc...
CRICOS #00212K
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Tyhhoon Koppu, The Philippines, 18/10/2015
CRICOS #00212K
Interaction, warm air helps trap
Koppu for a number of days ...
1 metre rain forecast
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
“surges exceeding 11m in Tampa and 7m in Dubai ..
non-negligible probabilities, especially towards end
of c...
CRICOS #00212K
Heat waves, fewer cold
waves, injuries, floods,
fires
Infectious diseases,
especially vector borne,
allergi...
CRICOS #00212K
Miami: especially vulnerable to sea level rise
CRICOS #00212K
Paris, Heatwave (2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths
30
Mean
daily
temp,
2003
Mean daily
temp 1999-
2002
~12...
CRICOS #00212K40
Ambulance attendances: heat-related illnesses
Metropolitan Melbourne heatwave, 2009
Victorian Dept of Hea...
CRICOS #00212K
Night-time
Day-time
‘Heat Island” Effect:
Melbourne, Australia
Heatwave, Jan 2009
From: M Loughnan,
Monash ...
CRICOS #00212K
Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality
Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave
(A...
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
Infectious diseases,
especially vector borne,
allergies, air pollutants,
infrastructure
secondary
Health ef...
CRICOS #00212K
3650m
(13,000 feet)
45
CRICOS #00212K
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Ebi et al., 2005
Climate Change and Malaria
Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Bula...
CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005
Bulawayo
Harare
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Climate Change and Malaria
Potential transmission i...
CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005
Bulawayo
Harare
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Climate Change and Malaria
Potential transmission i...
CRICOS #00212K
Malaria in Papua New Guinea
Old location
New location
courtesy Prof Ivo
Mueller:
Institute of Medical
Resea...
CRICOS #00212K
Dengue’s principal vector: Aedes aegypti
CRICOS #00212K
Effects of Temperature Rise
on Dengue Transmission
 Faster viral incubation in mosquito
 Shorter mosquito...
CRICOS #00212K
Map-projection of
changes to rainfall
across Australia to
2100 under ‘dry’ and
‘wet’ scenarios.
Using evide...
CRICOS #00212K
1998 line of northern limit has moved north during ensuing 8 years.
1950 line from surveillance by U.S. occ...
CRICOS #00212K
1980s 1990s
Based on: Lindgren, et. al. 2000
Sweden: Tick-Borne encephalitis
Spread of Ixodes ricinus
tick ...
CRICOS #00212K
Bats (pteropid species) colonising urban environments Habitat loss,
new-habitat attraction, climate change
...
CRICOS #00212K
tertiary
Health effects of eco-climate-social stress
famine, conflict, pop’n
displacement, refugees,
develo...
CRICOS #00212K
Prevalence of Stunting in Children Under 5 years (2005)
Black et al, Lancet 2008
57
Stunted children
57
CRICOS #00212K
Photo-
synthetic
activity
20o
C 30o
C 40o
C
Food Yields: General Relationship
of Temperature and Photosynth...
CRICOS #00212K
Climate change will impair farm production in many
poor countries and regions
Modelled % change in agricult...
CRICOS #00212K
decline in price due to
Green Revolution
oil, speculation,
rice panic
extreme events
World food price index...
CRICOS #00212K
Climate change will 'lead to battles for food',
says head of World Bank (April 2014)
Jim Yong Kim urges cam...
CRICOS #00212K
1989: Lancet editorial: foreshadows conflict
2011: Jarvis et al: "Climate change, ill health, and
conflict....
CRICOS #00212K
“a risk multiplier”
CRICOS #00212K
Water
scarcity
Regions afflicted by problems
due to environmental stresses:
• population pressure
• water s...
CRICOS #00212KPNAS - 2015
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works
Agency in a great city - large parts of which ha...
CRICOS #00212K
Burden of
Disease
(proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury,
productivity)
SECON...
CRICOS #00212K
Attribution
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse ...
CRICOS #00212K
Trenberth, 2011:
Climate change attribution - null hypothesis: no human role
“science community much too co...
CRICOS #00212K
Oreskes & Conway (2013):
“Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the
premise that it was...
CRICOS #00212K
Toxicity
72
Placebo
Vaccine spectrum
CRICOS #00212K
Panic, despair,
or indifference
73
“Polyanna”
“Social vaccine” spectrum
CRICOS #00212K74
“Peak health”
CRICOS #00212K75
“Peak health”
President Royal Society 2005-2010
CRICOS #00212K
76
“The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be
discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’
Hans Jo...
CRICOS #00212K
“Coal is good for humanity”
CRICOS #00212K
78
very dangerous
catastrophic
IPCC 2013
CRICOS #00212K
me
my nephew
a baby
79
CRICOS #00212K
This changes everything – Naomi Klein
80
CRICOS #00212K
Crisis = opportunity
81
CRICOS #00212K
Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816)
82
CRICOS #00212K
Rod Simpson
83
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
86
86
CRICOS #00212K87
CRICOS #00212K
Solar Power Will Become Cheaper Than Coal By 2017
HuffPost India | By Anirvan Ghosh
Posted: 14/05/2015 16:1...
CRICOS #00212K
He Had a dream
89
CRICOS #00212K
http://www.saskwind.ca/blogbackend/2014/9/17/wind-solar-cost-declines-renewables-growth
CRICOS #00212K
CRICOS #00212K
Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warming
April 28, 2015
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Climate change and health (ANU slides October 2015)

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Two one hour lectures on climate change and health, presented to 1st year medical students (postgrads) at the Australian National University, October 2015

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Climate change and health (ANU slides October 2015)

  1. 1. CRICOS #00212K October 12, 2015 Prof Colin D Butler Climate change and health ANU Medical School Oct 12, 2015
  2. 2. CRICOS #00212K Tony McMichael, 2014
  3. 3. CRICOS #00212K
  4. 4. CRICOS #00212K June, 2015
  5. 5. CRICOS #00212K “Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century”
  6. 6. CRICOS #00212K “The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable” Health in the Greenhouse Editorial (Lancet, 1989) 6
  7. 7. CRICOS #00212K Outline Basic science of climate change Health effects – 3 levels of effect Next week: what doctors can do
  8. 8. CRICOS #00212K “…slight change in [the atmosphere’s] constituents….” John Tyndall, 1859 8 Climate change: an old science
  9. 9. CRICOS #00212K John Tyndall water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane reduce heat loss, oxygen, nitrogen virtually transparent to heat. without these, Earth's surface would be "held fast in the iron grip of frost."
  10. 10. CRICOS #00212K Earth’s Temperature Chart, since Dinosaur Extinction 65m yrs ago West Antarctic ice sheet begins Arctic ice sheets appear East Antarctic ice sheet begins 60myr 50myr 40myr 30myr 20myr 10myr Now 1961-90 av temp Millions of Years Before Present 12 8 4 0 -4 Tempo C* (vs. 1961-90) 5o C warmer than 1961-90 ? Paleocene * Global temperature, measured at deep ocean 3o C warmer than 1961-90 1.5o C warmer than 1961-90 s s Sea level 25-40 metres higher than now Sea level ~70 metres higher than now Paleocene- Eocene Catastrophe Last 2m yr = ice-age 10
  11. 11. CRICOS #00212K Last Glaciation CO2 has not been this high in >half a million years. CO2 from fossil fuels, deforestation, agriculture main cause Last interglacial 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Atmosphere over past 650,000 years 280 ppm (‘pre-industrial’) Modern Homo sapiens Agriculture begins, 10K BP Holocene 400 ppm CO2 (2013) 11
  12. 12. CRICOS #00212K CO2 CH4 N2O 2005 CO2 now CO2 ppm N2O ppb CH4 ppb Year Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Methane (CH4) “Anthropocene” Concentrations of main greenhouse gases - other than H2O - over past 2,000 years (IPCC 2007) 12
  13. 13. Number of Years Before Present (quasi-log scale) -2 -3 -4 -5 3 2 1 0 Agriculture emerges Mesopotamia flourishes End of last ice age glaciation Younger Dryas event (rapid re-cooling) Little Ice Age in Europe (14th-19th centuries) Holocene Optimum Global Temperature: Past 20,000 Years; Next 100 Years Temp. change (ºC) 10,000 2,000 1,000 300 100 Now +10020,000 Medieval Warm in Europe (& drying in Central America) Av. temp. over past 10,000 yrs =15 ºC 1940 -6 Dark Ages in Europe White wine grown in Sth England 4 Vikings in Greenland Rome ascendant 1975
  14. 14. Most radiation absorbed by Earth, warming it Most radiation absorbed by Earth, warming it Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared waves Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared waves The strength of the sun varies a littleThe strength of the sun varies a little Aerosols: net cooling effect Aerosols: net cooling effect Feedback - additional GHGs Some outgoing infrared radiation trapped by atmosphere, warming it Some outgoing infrared radiation trapped by atmosphere, warming it
  15. 15. CRICOS #00212K CH4 CO2 Green house gases N2O Sulfate particles Radiative forcing NO2 CH4 O3 CH4 CH4 CO2 Slide adapted from one courtesy Prof Steffen Loft, University of Copenhagen, Denmark wetlands, rice, tundra, biomass burning, deforestation CO2 CH4, black carbon CO2 15
  16. 16. CRICOS #00212KCRICOS #00212K IPCC, Wkg Gp 1 Report, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, p. 703 anthropogenic forcings How valid are Global Climate Models (for predicting future change?)
  17. 17. CRICOS #00212K Physical effects of climate change Heat Cold? Storms Rainfall changes Sea level rise Ocean acidification
  18. 18. CRICOS #00212K
  19. 19. CRICOS #00212K Average global land ocean temp 0.88°C > 20th century average of 15.6°C, hottest August in 136-year record, 0.09°C higher than previous record (2014) https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201508
  20. 20. CRICOS #00212Khttp://www.attn.com/stories/2621/middle-east-heat-wave-climate-change July 30, 2015 “heat dome”
  21. 21. CRICOS #00212K
  22. 22. CRICOS #00212K Australia: Getting Hotter from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010 60 50 40 30 20 10 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Data source: Bureau of Meteorology Average number of record hot days per year, by decade No. of record hot days [max temperature] at Australian climate reference stations, 1960-2009 No. of record hot days
  23. 23. CRICOS #00212K Australia: Getting Less Cold from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010 No. of record cold days [max daily temperature] at Australian climate reference stations, 1960-2009 Average number of record cold days per year, by decade 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 40 30 20 10 Data source: Bureau of Meteorology No. of record cold days
  24. 24. CRICOS #00212K 1. Thermal expansion 2. Melting land ice – Greenland, Antarctica 3. Other glaciers (eg Alaska, Himalayas) 4. Partly offset by dams
  25. 25. CRICOS #00212K Global mean sea level (mm) Hay et al, Nature, 2015
  26. 26. CRICOS #00212K Observed global mean sea level and derived instantaneous sea level rise Global Environmental Outlook – not peer reviewed
  27. 27. CRICOS #00212K Outline Health effects – 3 levels of effect
  28. 28. CRICOS #00212K “Secondary” “Tertiary” “Primary” 28
  29. 29. CRICOS #00212K Prof Colin D Butler Climate change and health (2/2) ANU Medical School Oct 19, 2015 Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)
  30. 30. CRICOS #00212K Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The Philippines Strongest recorded storm to make landfall Direct death toll: >5,000 Displaced: >4 million Total Burden of Disease? Fraction attributable to climate change? 30
  31. 31. CRICOS #00212K A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14 Country: PHILIPPINES Tacloban Mayor: <100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes built, (7m storm surges destroyed around 90% of city) “The nephew of Imelda Marcos did not mention graft as factor in one of Asia's most corrupt countries” 31
  32. 32. CRICOS #00212K 32 A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam
  33. 33. CRICOS #00212K http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ Tyhhoon Koppu, The Philippines, 18/10/2015
  34. 34. CRICOS #00212K Interaction, warm air helps trap Koppu for a number of days ... 1 metre rain forecast
  35. 35. CRICOS #00212K
  36. 36. CRICOS #00212K “surges exceeding 11m in Tampa and 7m in Dubai .. non-negligible probabilities, especially towards end of century.”
  37. 37. CRICOS #00212K Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, fires Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure secondary primary tertiary Health effects of eco-climate-social stress famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 3737 Mentalhealth
  38. 38. CRICOS #00212K Miami: especially vulnerable to sea level rise
  39. 39. CRICOS #00212K Paris, Heatwave (2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths 30 Mean daily temp, 2003 Mean daily temp 1999- 2002 ~12 o C above season norm 25 15 o C 20 35 o C ~900 extra deaths during heatwave 350 300 250 200 150 100 0 Daily deaths 50 van den Torren, 2004 +8o C +12o C Daily deaths: 2003 1999-2002 ~100 extra deaths June …..……………… July …………………. ………… August ……….
  40. 40. CRICOS #00212K40 Ambulance attendances: heat-related illnesses Metropolitan Melbourne heatwave, 2009 Victorian Dept of Health Elderly at most risk: vulnerable to exacerbation of chronic illness?
  41. 41. CRICOS #00212K Night-time Day-time ‘Heat Island” Effect: Melbourne, Australia Heatwave, Jan 2009 From: M Loughnan, Monash University
  42. 42. CRICOS #00212K Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave (Azhar et al, 2014) (adapted) May 1-31 Max temp 2010 Max temp 2009-and 2011 42 Daily deaths 2009 & 2011, 2010
  43. 43. CRICOS #00212K
  44. 44. CRICOS #00212K Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure secondary Health effects of eco-climate-social stress 4444 Mentalhealth
  45. 45. CRICOS #00212K 3650m (13,000 feet) 45
  46. 46. CRICOS #00212K Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Ebi et al., 2005 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Bulawayo Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low High probability Medium probability Low probability Harare Highland s
  47. 47. CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005 Bulawayo Harare Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
  48. 48. CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005 Bulawayo Harare Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
  49. 49. CRICOS #00212K Malaria in Papua New Guinea Old location New location courtesy Prof Ivo Mueller: Institute of Medical Research, PNG 49
  50. 50. CRICOS #00212K Dengue’s principal vector: Aedes aegypti
  51. 51. CRICOS #00212K Effects of Temperature Rise on Dengue Transmission  Faster viral incubation in mosquito  Shorter mosquito breeding cycle  Increased mosquito feeding frequency  More efficient transmission of dengue virus from mosquito to human
  52. 52. CRICOS #00212K Map-projection of changes to rainfall across Australia to 2100 under ‘dry’ and ‘wet’ scenarios. Using evidence from published literature, modelled how these changes would affect dengue distribution over space and time. Areas suitable for dengue transmission in 2100 under 4 climate change scenarios (grey = ≥50% likelihood of transmission) Bambrick et al., 2009, Global Hlth Action 4. Warm (strong mitigation)3. Hot & Wet 2. Hot, Median humidity1. Hot & Dry
  53. 53. CRICOS #00212K 1998 line of northern limit has moved north during ensuing 8 years. 1950 line from surveillance by U.S. occupation army.   Confirmed city Non-confirmed 1998 2000 100 Km 1950 2006 Northern range of Ae. albopictus in Tohoku district, Japan Tokyo Courtesy of: Dr Mutsuo Kobayashi N 2003
  54. 54. CRICOS #00212K 1980s 1990s Based on: Lindgren, et. al. 2000 Sweden: Tick-Borne encephalitis Spread of Ixodes ricinus tick to higher latitudes (and altitudes) Warmer winters
  55. 55. CRICOS #00212K Bats (pteropid species) colonising urban environments Habitat loss, new-habitat attraction, climate change Potential source of many new viruses Nipah, Ebola, Hendra, …
  56. 56. CRICOS #00212K tertiary Health effects of eco-climate-social stress famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 5656 Mentalhealth
  57. 57. CRICOS #00212K Prevalence of Stunting in Children Under 5 years (2005) Black et al, Lancet 2008 57 Stunted children 57
  58. 58. CRICOS #00212K Photo- synthetic activity 20o C 30o C 40o C Food Yields: General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis 0% 100% e.g.: Field & Lobell. Environ Res Lett, 2007: Globally averaged estimate: +0.5o C reduces crop yields by 3-5%. +2o C +2o C Plus: •Flood/storm/fire damage •Droughts – range, severity •Pests (climate-sensitive) •Diseases (ditto)
  59. 59. CRICOS #00212K Climate change will impair farm production in many poor countries and regions Modelled % change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080 Source: Cline WR, 2007: Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development, Peterson Institute for International Economics (cited in von Braun J (IFPRI), 2007 < -25% > + 25% 0 to 5% NA -15 to -5% LESS MORE - 5 to 0% 5 to 15% 15 to 25% -25 to -15%
  60. 60. CRICOS #00212K decline in price due to Green Revolution oil, speculation, rice panic extreme events World food price index (deflated) (1961-2015) (data FAO)
  61. 61. CRICOS #00212K Climate change will 'lead to battles for food', says head of World Bank (April 2014) Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a coherent plan in the fight against climate change 61
  62. 62. CRICOS #00212K 1989: Lancet editorial: foreshadows conflict 2011: Jarvis et al: "Climate change, ill health, and conflict." BMJ 342: 777-778. 2014: Stern, N. “Climate change is here now and it could lead to global conflict.” The Guardian Conflict and climate change 62
  63. 63. CRICOS #00212K “a risk multiplier”
  64. 64. CRICOS #00212K Water scarcity Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture] Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
  65. 65. CRICOS #00212KPNAS - 2015
  66. 66. CRICOS #00212K
  67. 67. CRICOS #00212K Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works Agency in a great city - large parts of which have been destroyed by civil war, along with basic food supply infrastructure
  68. 68. CRICOS #00212K Burden of Disease (proportion) Year widely accepted now 2050? PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large- scale migration, economic collapse 68
  69. 69. CRICOS #00212K Attribution For want of a nail the shoe was lost For want of a shoe the horse was lost For want of a horse the rider was lost For want of a rider the battle was lost For want of a battle the kingdom was lost And all for the want of a horseshoe nail 1390 C.E. “Prisoners of the Proximate: Loosening the Constraints on Epidemiology in an Age of Change”
  70. 70. CRICOS #00212K Trenberth, 2011: Climate change attribution - null hypothesis: no human role “science community much too conservative .. too many authors make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in error) – ie conclude any particular extreme event has no anthropogenic (human) component” 70 “Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities” WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
  71. 71. CRICOS #00212K Oreskes & Conway (2013): “Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”. 71 Type 1 error spectrum Type 2 conservative? risky? precautionary? risky?
  72. 72. CRICOS #00212K Toxicity 72 Placebo Vaccine spectrum
  73. 73. CRICOS #00212K Panic, despair, or indifference 73 “Polyanna” “Social vaccine” spectrum
  74. 74. CRICOS #00212K74 “Peak health”
  75. 75. CRICOS #00212K75 “Peak health” President Royal Society 2005-2010
  76. 76. CRICOS #00212K 76 “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
  77. 77. CRICOS #00212K “Coal is good for humanity”
  78. 78. CRICOS #00212K 78 very dangerous catastrophic IPCC 2013
  79. 79. CRICOS #00212K me my nephew a baby 79
  80. 80. CRICOS #00212K This changes everything – Naomi Klein 80
  81. 81. CRICOS #00212K Crisis = opportunity 81
  82. 82. CRICOS #00212K Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816) 82
  83. 83. CRICOS #00212K Rod Simpson 83
  84. 84. CRICOS #00212K
  85. 85. CRICOS #00212K
  86. 86. CRICOS #00212K 86 86
  87. 87. CRICOS #00212K87
  88. 88. CRICOS #00212K Solar Power Will Become Cheaper Than Coal By 2017 HuffPost India | By Anirvan Ghosh Posted: 14/05/2015 16:12 IST Updated: 21/05/2015 14:45 IST
  89. 89. CRICOS #00212K He Had a dream 89
  90. 90. CRICOS #00212K http://www.saskwind.ca/blogbackend/2014/9/17/wind-solar-cost-declines-renewables-growth
  91. 91. CRICOS #00212K
  92. 92. CRICOS #00212K Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warming April 28, 2015

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