Chinese climate change and health - Cordia Chu
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An introduction to some of the health risks associated with climate change. This presentation was part of the provincial researcher workshops conducted as part of the Adapting to Climate Change in China II project.
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Chinese climate change and health - Cordia Chu
- 1. 朱明若
- 2. 报告提纲 1. 简介：气候变化对全球健康的挑战 2. 气候变化与健康的研究空白 : 综合多学科方 法于气候变化和适应
- 3. 3 Future temperature changes CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Global warming by 2100: 450 ppm: 0.8 – 2.1 °C 550 ppm: 1.1 – 2.7 °C No mitigation: 2.4 – 6.4 °C
- 4. Sources: WHO 2003 Variations in Earth's average surface temperature, over the past 20,000 years Ice Age
- 5. I. 介绍 : 气候变化对全球健康的挑战 从 90’s 早期 WHO 气候变化警告 WHO 的一项研究估计，在亚洲及太平洋，气候变化每年直接或间接导致大约 77 000 人死亡— 气候变化导致了全球半数的死亡 10 年后 , Dr Shigeru Omi, World Health Organization Regional Director for the Western Pacific, warned: “ 我们现在已经进入了全球气候变暖严重影响生活和 身体健康的关键阶段，如果我们现在不采取行动， 这一问题将在未来几十年对人类 . 带来更大的威胁”
- 6. 全球变暖的潜在影响 : 以前没有蚊子的地方出现了蚊子 :- 增加了虫媒疾病的威胁，如疟疾 和登革热 . 有些地区可能降雨量减少了，导致水资源短缺，引起水源性疾病的发 生 . 耕地面积减少导致数百万人面临营养不良和饥饿 Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO 西太平洋区域主管 , 对气候变 化和人类健康发出警告 : 从 90’s 早期 WHO 气候变化警告 Research on climate change and health were limited 相比气候研究的投资，必要的投入是非常小的
- 7. Why should an extra degree or two (or 4) matter? Global mean temperature is likely to rise by 1.4-5.8°C between 1990 and 2100 with associated changes (IPCC, 2007)
- 8. 8 Thornton & Jones. 4 degrees and beyond 2009. Projected climate change will shorten growing seasons in equatorial regions and increase the risk of hunger where communities depend on local agriculture
- 9. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Temperature o C Salmonellacount Perth Brisbane Adelaide Melbourne Sydney D’Souza et al., 2003 Food-borne infections are more common when temperatures rise – 5 major Australian cities
- 10. Significant collective work informing policy direction for climate change, health and environment March 8, 2014 政府间气候变化专门委员会（ IPCC ） The Final Report of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5), titled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (31 March 2014.) Lancet, 2012 2009 The latest: what science tells us about climate change
- 11. Is it global warming or just the weather? Indeed, heat waves and cold spells, increasing incidences of floods, droughts, typhoons and rise in sea level are just some of the many examples around us of a changing climate. 加上气候 化有 的 端天气事件，海平面上升变 关 极 ，超 灾害，和 境 染有 的用水安全，食品级 环 污 关 安全问题… .
- 12. Rising atmospheric temperature Rising sea level Reductions in North Hemisphere snow cover Climate change is Unequivocal
- 13. • 1900-2100 年，全球平均气温很可能上升 1.4-5.8°C (IPCC, 2007) • 海平面上升 0.18 - 0.79 米 (IPCC, 2007) • 洪水是发生最频繁的自然灾害 (EM-DAT, 2006) • 气候变化影响全球食物产量 气候变化是 21 世纪全球健康的最大威胁 (The Lancet Commissions, 2009)
- 14. Types of disasters in the world in 2011 (EM-DAT, 2011) Increasing flood risks (EM-DAT, 2011) 16
- 15. Water Security
- 17. Desertification
- 18. Searching for water Extreme weather and climate change related disasters: Water crisis
- 19. 用水安全和水源性疾病 • 人得不到干 的水，亿 净 220 万 5 以下的儿童由于水源 染而岁 污 死亡。 • 在 展中国家，腹 、周 境发 泻 围环 温度与降水 量明 相 。总 显 关 Source: UN
- 20. Multiple impacts of food shortage: hunger & starvation, human suffering, malnutrition, lower immunity, increased morbidity and mortality!! Malnutrition population distribution 食物短缺和饥饿
- 21. Land Degradation, Food Insecurity, Poverty, Starvation, and human suffering • 8 人得不到足 的食物亿 够 • 每年至少有 350 万儿童死亡，其中 1 / 3 的儿童在 5 以下，其根本原因是 不良。岁 营养 • 不良容易引 疾病营养 发 食品安全和 不良营养
- 22. 极端气候事件 全球变暖 WHO 2007 Climate change & human health-risks and responses 新的传染病 Displacement & Refugees 迁移 洪水
- 23. • 疾病模式的改变 , • 水和食物的不安全 , • 脆弱的住房和人类住区 • 极端气候事件 • 生态迁移和难民 • 虫媒疾病将影响更多的地区，并导致更多人死亡， 尤其是脆弱群体，如老年人 • 气候变化对政府尤其是卫生部门是一个直接的挑战 –包括急性医疗和公共卫生体系 气候变化相关的健康威胁的趋势 直接或间接增加死亡、疾病和伤害 --The Lancet Commissions-- 气候变化是 21 世纪全球健康的最大威胁 (The Lancet Commissions, 2009)
- 24. 1Climate Change and Health Hisashi Ogawa WHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific 9 August 2011
- 25. Pathways by which climate change affects human health Sources: WHO 2003
- 26. Future effects of climate change on human health, IPCC 4th AR, 2007
- 27. Climate change and Health
- 28. More droughts, floods, typhoons Effects on water and food shortage; on water and food borne disease More Extreme Weathers
- 29. Confidence in: Malaria distribution changes – mixed effects (some contractions and some expansion in geographic range and change in seasonality) Less confidence in dengue fever impacts, though WHO and scientists around the world estimated that around 3 billion people globally will be at risk from Dengue fever due to climate change, urbanization, and world trade (ESSP 2006: 10)[1]. Dengue fever is recognised as a serious threat to the world’s population as there is not yet a proven effective treatment. Confalonieri, U and McMichael, A (ed) 2006) Global Environmental Change and Human Health. Earth System Science Partnership Report No. 4. Climatic Changes and Mosquito-born diseases
- 31. Emergence of DEN/DHF Prior to 1970, only 9 countries had experienced cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF); since then the number has increased more than 4-fold and continues to rise
- 32. 925896 479848 295554 122174 908 15497 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1955-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000- 2005 Lancet 2006;368:2194 Global dengue cases reported each year to WHO Global rise in dengue cases reported each year to WHO
- 33. Countries at risk of dengue transmission
- 34. Current global dengue distribution; 35% of the global population is exposed. The dengue distribution will be 50-60% of the population by 2085. Hales et al., 2002 Global Model for Dengue Distribution
- 35. Zika: a serious threat for pregnant women and their foetus
- 36. European heat waves – summer of 2003 and again in 2006 Figure depicts 2003 temperatures compared to same time in 2001 2003 Heat wave responsible for 35,000 deaths across Europe, 3000 deaths in France alone
- 37. Excess mortality density (1990s and 2090s) in East Asia 1990s 2090s 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100 (persons/km2 ) Honda, Y. Presentation at IEEE, September 2010
- 38. Desertification, dust and sand storm, forest fires Effects on water and food shortage and on air pollution
- 39. Impacts of climate change and air pollution
- 40. Children with cancer are comforted by a charity worker. Of the estimated 11,700 deaths from cancer in Guangzhou each year, the biggest killer is lung cancer, and there are no prizes for guessing why that is. LUNG CANCER THE LEADING KILLER IN GUANGZHOU The Guangzhou CDC has reported that cancer is the leading cause of death in the city, causing 25% of all deaths, Nanfang Daily reports. Increases in Lung Cancer in Beijing and Guangzhou
- 41. Hurricane Katrina 2005 – around 1800 deaths
- 42. 80-90% of disasters during 2001-2011 have resulted from floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heat waves and severe storms. In 2011, 332 disasters in 101 countries, causing 30770 deaths, affecting 244 million people, damages amounted to over US$366 billion. (2012 Atlas of Health and Climate by WHO and World Meteorological Organisation) disasters
- 43. Health and Emergency ServicesHealth and Emergency Services being stretched to the limitbeing stretched to the limit
- 44. The UN warns that the number of people forced to leave home due to pollution, rising sea levels and expanding deserts could soar from 25 million in 2005 to 50 million in 2010 (Newsweek October 24, 05)
- 45. Climate change-- the multiplier of risks: climate change related extreme weather events, heat waves, droughts, sea level rises, and environmental pollution related water security, food security problems….
- 46. 49 Climate Change and human health Source: CDC, 2015. Retrieved on 25th March 2016 from http://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/effects/default.htm Climate change will continue to exacerbate health problems that already exist (IPCC, 2014a), new health threats will emerge (CDC, 2015)
- 47. 报告提纲 1. 简介：气候变化对全球健康的挑战 2. 气候变化与健康的研究空白 : 综合多学科方法于 气候变化和适应 3. 公共卫生关注点及主要概念 : 健康不平等性、脆弱性 、适应和适应能力 4. 从范围界定到适应规划的渐进式问题解决步骤 5. 健康和气候变化应用研究的路线图 6. 未来的方向：气候变化和全球研究伙伴关系
- 49. 学科间的、综合的方法，包括 气候变化适应的多个部门和 利益相关方 卫生部门必须发展适应性策略以使由气候变化引 起的健康危害最小化。 对脆弱人群的需求给予更多的关注。 评估和提高公共卫生系统反应能力。 实施适应性措施。 卫生部门必须发展适应性策略以使由气候变化引 起的健康危害最小化。 对脆弱人群的需求给予更多的关注。 评估和提高公共卫生系统反应能力。 实施适应性措施。
- 52. The role of international experts in the Adapting to Climate Change in China (The ACCC project) Sponsored jointly by DFID/SWISS/CHINA Example oneExample one
- 53. DFID-Swiss-China ProjectDFID-Swiss-China Project June 2009-June 2012June 2009-June 2012 Guangdong project team with International Health Experts
- 54. Scoping Vulnerability Assessment (VA) Scenario development & testing Adaptation planning Spiral Steps to climate change adaptation research Building research team Risk Assessment (VA)
- 56. ACCC Policy Brief: Climate change and Impact on Agriculture in China
- 57. ACCC Policy Brief on CC Impact on Agriculture in China
- 58. ACCC Policy Brief: Climate Change and its impact on population health in Southern China (Heat waves, cold spell, foot and mouth diseases, and risk perception & heat stroke) ACCC Policy Brief: Climate Change and its impact on population health in Southern China (Heat waves, cold spell, foot and mouth diseases, and risk perception & heat stroke)
- 61. Three examples of translational research: 3. Conduct stakeholder engagement workshops in Hangzhou to inform, consult, gain feedback, and invite inputs on the revision of the brooklet to better meet their needs; Revise the booklet, conduct another stakeholder engagement workshop in Guangdong intensive heat; Revise the booklets Provide the booklets to research partners and stakeholders group as a basis for designing the next phase of the action research focussing on local area adaptation strategies for prioritised target group.
- 65. 74 将来研究的优先领域包括 : –区域风险的鉴定 (Risk Assessment ) –当地基本保健服务和职业健康服务的准备 ; – 初级、二级、三级卫生服务气候相关健康数据的 整合 – 发展适应性策略 澳大利亚—国家气候变化适应研究设施 气候变化和健康知识和研究的空白未来的方向
- 66. 气候变化与人类健康 气候变化引起的健康效应的管理需要政府和民间 团体所有部门的参与，学术学科间的合作以及国 际合作 . 当地政府社区和相关部门参 与监测、讨论、倡导和支持 适应过程是非常关键的 ! -Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission vol 373, May 16, 2009
- 67. Thanks you
- 68. 朱明若 Thanks you!
Editor's Notes
- Key messages: Results form CSIRO climate model under mid-case emission scenario Land warms faster than ocean, poles warm faster than tropics Cite the average global warming figures for the various scenarios on the right
- In its Third Assessment Report (2001), the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."
- To see the implication of increased temperature in terms of Salmonella notifications we used the fitted Model with only temperature of the previous month, with ‘season’ omitted, to predict Salmonella counts over a range of monthly mean temperatures. So that the different long-term trends do not interfere with a comparison across cities, we fixed the ‘time’ variable at a value that reflects the recent past, so that the predicted values can be thought of as predictions of current counts. In doing so we avoid the most recent times because they may be influenced by edge effects in the fitted trend curves. For different temperatures, the number of cases predicted by the fitted Model at time 120 (December 2000) are calculated. In all five cities there is an increase in the number of cases as temperature increases. On the scale of actual counts all the graphs are curved upwards slightly, more so for Brisbane than for other cities. The gradient is linear for the logarithm of counts for each city.
- Fossil fuel CO2 emissions continued to grow strongly in 2008 at 2% per year. This growth lead to an all time high of 8.7 PgC emitted to the atmosphere (1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons), 29% above emissions in 2000, and 41% above the Kyoto reference year 1990. Coal is now the largest fossil-fuel source of CO2 emissions. Over 90% of the growth in coal emissions results from increased coal use in China and India. Global emissions per capita reached 1.3 tonnes of carbon but the developed countries still lead. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes were calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2006 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2007 and 2008 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6%. Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
- The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report tells us that although there is debate about the details, we can be sure of three main points. Firstly, that the climate is changing. The world is warming, at an accelerating rate. Sea levels are rising; The snow and glaciers that supply freshwater to many populations are receding. We are seeing increasing droughts, floods and storms. 2) Secondly, human actions, mainly the burning of fossil fuels, are now the main cause of climate change. Our actions will therefore determine how much we change the climate for future generations. 3) Thirdly, even if we cut greenhouse gas emissions, we are still committed to some climate change, for at least the next 100 years. By the end of 2100, the global average surface temperature is expected to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 ℃, and the sea level rise by 30-60 cm.
- The figure shows the factors that lead to human-induced (anthropogenic) climate change, particularly population dynamics and unsustainable economic development and consumption patterns that lead to burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, both major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The concentration of future emissions will depend on policy choices made in the short term. Climate change can affect health directly and indirectly. Directly, changes in temperatures, precipitation, and weather extremes can affect each of us when the weather is too hot or cold, or there is a windstorm, flood, or drought. Indirectly, these same changes in weather patterns can affect various pathways of disease transmission. For example, increasing temperatures may provide opportunities for disease vectors to change their geographic range or to survive for longer periods of time each year, thus setting the stage for increased disease transmission. Increasing temperatures can increase pathogen replication rates and/or survival in the environment, allowing for increased transmission of food- and waterborne diseases. Air quality also can be affected through increased or decreased formation of air pollutants, as well as from a longer or more intense pollen season. Changes in growing conditions for crops are projected to affect food security in many areas around the world. Reduced precipitation in the primarily dry areas of the world are projected to increase water stress in many regions. All of these changes could affect mental health. The extent to which health impacts occur will depend on a wide range of moderating influences, particularly policy choices to address the health risks of climate change.
- The figure summarizes the conclusions of the IPCC Human Health chapter (IPCC, 2007a). The arrows are qualitative, not quantitative, and are relative to each other. Note that the confidence bands have to do with the quality and quantity of the literature. There was medium confidence that diarrheal diseases would increase because there are few studies. However, experience on the ground suggests a higher confidence that diarrheal diseases could increase with increased water stress and increased number of flooding events in some areas. It is a summary, indicative only, not comprehensive and very much semi-quantitative. There are a number of points from this diagram, I would like to highlight: There will be some positive outcomes (for example, in parts of the world it will become too hot and dry for transmission of malaria to be sustained), but overwhelmingly, the balance of health effects is on the negative side; The largest effect, globally, is projected to be from malnutrition. There are indications that it will take approximately 35 additional years to reach the World Food Summit 2002 target of reducing world hunger by half by 2015 (Rosegrant and Cline, 2003; UN Millennium Project, 2005). Child malnutrition is projected to persist in regions of low-income countries, although the total global burden is expected to decline without considering the impact of climate change. Attribution of current and future climate-change-related malnutrition burdens is problematic because the determinants of malnutrition are complex. Due to the very large number of people that may be affected, malnutrition linked to extreme climatic events may be one of the most important consequences of climate change. For example, climate change is projected to increase the percentage of the Malian population at risk of hunger from 34% to between 64% and 72% by the 2050s, although this could be substantially reduced by the effective implementation of a range of adaptive strategies (Butt and McCarl, 2005). Climate-change models project that those likely to be adversely affected are the regions already most vulnerable to food insecurity, notably Africa, which may lose substantial agricultural land. Overall, climate change is projected to increase the number of people at risk of hunger (FAO, 2008a). Of course, as illustrated in the earlier presentation there will be some winners and losers, in particular in the first half of this century.
- The study also allows us to show the need for a shared global response. Scaling countries and regions according to their greenhouse gas emissions on one hand, and the estimated health impacts on the other, shows that it is those that are least responsible for climate change that are most vulnerable to its effects.
- Different types of hazards affect Indonesia on weekly basis. Recently we have a dam collapsed in Situ Gintung, Tangerang, DKI Jakarta, earthquake in Tasikmalaya-West Java and Padang Pariaman West Sumatera, Mount Merapi Eruption, That’s why we use to say, Indonesia has Emergency Hypermarket. More than a super market.
- There are numerous pathways that climate change affects human health. For example, rising temperatures cause severe weather and extreme heat that result in heat-related illness and death, cardiovascular failure, and metal health impacts. Impacts of CC on quantity and quality of water and food supply results in undernutrition and food- and water-borne diseases. Increasing respiratory allergies, asthma and cardiovascular diseases are caused by an increase of allergens and air pollution. And it is expected that climate change will continue to exacerbate health problems that already exist, and new health threats will emerge. One health problem that is always a threat to human health is infectious diseases. In the context of climate change, the patterns of infectious diseases are changing and posing more threat to human health.
- I hope this video has given you an idea of what we are aiming to achieve and address in the Adapting to Climate Change in China project. I’d like now to give you a bit more information about what we’ll do in the project. Will introduce some details of the project: why it’s important principles for project operation activities we will undertake