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Life support to_regional_overload

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Tony McMichael public health, ecology & environment award, 2018, lecture delivered in Cairns, Australia September 2018. Public Health Association of Australia

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Life support to_regional_overload

  1. 1. CRICOS #00212K Adjunct Prof Colin D Butler From life support to regional overload PHAA , Leadership in public health: Challenges for local and planetary communities; September 26, 2018 Cairns Tony McMichael Public health, Ecology and Environment award
  2. 2. CRICOS #00212K 1. Eco-social causation 2. Climate change & health 3. Limits to Growth & health 4. BODHI & Health-Earth
  3. 3. CRICOS #00212K
  4. 4. CRICOS #00212K “The most serious potential consequence of global environmental change is the erosion of Earth’s life-support systems.”
  5. 5. CRICOS #00212K “The most serious potential consequence of global environmental change is the erosion of Earth’s life-support systems.” “interventions in and manipulations of the processes of the planetary life support-system (ecosystem) have produced a set of complex problems, problems that constitute the essence of human ecology. (Sargent, F. Man-environment—Problems for public health. Am J Pub Hlth 1972, 62, 628-633.)
  6. 6. CRICOS #00212K “downstream” upstream downstream determinants of health McMichael, A.J. Prisoners of the proximate. Loosening the constraints on epidemiology in an age of change. American Journal of Epidemiology 1999, 149, 887-97.
  7. 7. CRICOS #00212K “downstream” upstream downstream determinants of health McMichael, A.J. Prisoners of the proximate. Loosening the constraints on epidemiology in an age of change. American Journal of Epidemiology 1999, 149, 887-97. President Trump’s apparent world-view
  8. 8. CRICOS #00212K “downstream” upstream downstream determinants of health McMichael, A.J. Prisoners of the proximate. Loosening the constraints on epidemiology in an age of change. American Journal of Epidemiology 1999, 149, 887-97. Life support mechanisms
  9. 9. CRICOS #00212K “downstream” upstream downstream determinants of health McMichael, A.J. Prisoners of the proximate. Loosening the constraints on epidemiology in an age of change. American Journal of Epidemiology 1999, 149, 887-97. Life support mechanismsCivilization
  10. 10. CRICOS #00212K
  11. 11. CRICOS #00212K environmental factor effect environmental determinism (alleged ) climate change Syrian war
  12. 12. CRICOS #00212K internal migration rival groups (including religious) poor governance climate change aquifer depletion high fertility, youth bulges, high unemployment “eco-social” determinismeconomic liberalisation Butler, C.D.; Kefford, B.J. Climate and conflict: magnifying risks. Nature 2018, 555, 587. Butler, C.D. Regional overload” as an indicator of profound risk: a plea for the public health community to awaken. In Medicines for the Anthropocene: Health on a Finite Planet, Quilley, S.; Zywert, K., Eds. University of Toronto Press: Toronto, Canada (in press). Syrian war
  13. 13. CRICOS #00212K Direct effects .. (particularly heatwaves) Indirect effects are “secondary, such as changes in vector-borne diseases”, and tertiary “such as the social and economic impacts of environmental refugees and conflict over fresh water supplies.” Haines, A.; Epstein, P.R.; McMichael, A.J. Global health watch: monitoring impacts of environmental change. Lancet 1993,342, 1464-9. Climate change and health: categories
  14. 14. CRICOS #00212K Burden of Disease (proportion) Time until obvious now 2050? PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) SECONDARY (eg vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) Butler CD (ed) Climate Change and Global Health, CABI (2014)
  15. 15. CRICOS #00212K Burden of Disease (proportion) Time until obvious now 2050? PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) SECONDARY (eg vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) TERTIARY: (“system multiplier”) famine, conflict, large- scale migration, economic collapse Butler CD (ed) Climate Change and Global Health, CABI (2014) 2030? Time until accepted
  16. 16. CRICOS #00212K Butler, CD. Climate change, health and existential risks to civilization: a comprehensive review (1989-2013) (under review) Papers per annum
  17. 17. CRICOS #00212K Butler, CD. Climate change, health and existential risks to civilization: a comprehensive review (1989-2013) (under review) 1.9 1.4 Papers per annum
  18. 18. CRICOS #00212K Score 3 Score 2 Score 1 74 papers, average score 1.99 Papers per annum
  19. 19. CRICOS #00212K Energy return on energy investment (ERoEI) 1900 1950 2000 2018 100 10 oil coal 50 data sources: various (especially C. Hall)
  20. 20. CRICOS #00212K Energy return on energy investment (ERoEI) 1900 1950 2000 2018 100 10 oil coal 50 data sources: various (especially C. Hall) biofuel tarsands
  21. 21. CRICOS #00212K Energy return on energy investment (ERoEI) 1900 1950 2000 2018 100 10 oil coal 50 wind, solar biofuel tarsands data sources: various (especially C. Hall)
  22. 22. CRICOS #00212K 0 40 80 120 160 200 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Food price index (FAO) Energy price (indexed)
  23. 23. CRICOS #00212K 0 40 80 120 160 200 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Extreme events – i.e. climate change? Food price index (FAO) Butler, CD 2014. Famine, hunger, society and climate change. In: Climate Change and Global Health, edited by CD Butler. Wallingford, UK: CABI. (adapted). Energy price (indexed)
  24. 24. CRICOS #00212K REGIONAL
  25. 25. CRICOS #00212K REGIONAL https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-01-06/venezuelas-military-has-turned-its-food-crisis- racket-and-its-profiting-people Venezuela 2017-8
  26. 26. CRICOS #00212K REGIONAL https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/nsw- drought-1-million-packages-and-tax-breaks-on- table/news-story/bb0c2a49a3050e31ef6b5e8f640bb340 Pan evaporation for Eastern Australia (July)
  27. 27. CRICOS #00212KSteffen, W. et al. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS (USA) 2018.
  28. 28. CRICOS #00212K Tipping points in the Earth’s eco-social system Rwanda 1994 boat people 1788 “unwanted” people Bangladesh 2050? Steffen, W. et al. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS (USA) 2018. “dry corridor” 2017-8 Venezuela 2017-8
  29. 29. CRICOS #00212K 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 historical trend (1900- non-renewable resources remaining food per capita services per capita population industrial output per person 1970 Limits to Growth pollution Data: Graham Turner, Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth With Historical Data; Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne: Melbourne, 2014.
  30. 30. CRICOS #00212K 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 historical trend (1900-70) trend estimated non- renewable resources remaining food per capita services per capita populati on 1970 2010 2010 industrial output per person pollution population Data: Graham Turner, Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth With Historical Data; Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne: Melbourne, 2014.
  31. 31. CRICOS #00212K 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 historical trend (1900-70) trend estimated non-renewable resources remaining food per capita services per capita industrial output per person pollution 1970 2010 2010 increasing cases of regional overload? “peak health” Brijnath, B.; McMichael, A.J.; Butler, C.D. Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature 2012, 486, 191 Butler, C.D. Regional overload” as an indicator of profound risk: a plea for the public health community to awaken. In Medicines for the Anthropocene: Health on a Finite Planet, Quilley, S.; Zywert, K., Eds. University of Toronto
  32. 32. CRICOS #00212K
  33. 33. CRICOS #00212K https://www.bodhi-australia.com/
  34. 34. CRICOS #00212K https://health-earth.weebly.com/friends.html

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