Conference

1. Governing the impossible mission –
developing transformative policy mixes
to decarbonize
the harder-to-abate sectors in Taiwan
Chia-Wei Chao
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Risk Society and Policy Research Center,
National Taiwan University

2. Enabling Condition for Mission Possible(1/2)
30% of Global CO2 emission
Decarbonization
Technologies:
CCS, Biomass. H2
Energy
Efficiency
Material
Efficiency
( ETC, 2018; Rissman, et al 2020; RMI, 2019 )

3. 3
Enabling Condition for Mission Possible(2/2)1630 K.S. Rogge, K. Reichardt / Research Policy 45 (2016) 1620–1635
Technologicalchange
characteristics
elements
policyprocesses
policystrategy
instrument mix
P o l i c y m i x
1
2
5
8 7
6
9
34
Fig. 3. Framework for analyzing the link between the policy mix and technological change.
• destruction the regime
• societal experimentation
• long term target
• anticipatory
deliberation
• new institutional arrangements
• governance structures
(Rogge and Reichardt, 2016; Rogge et al. 2018)
SET AMBITIOUS
CARBON-INTENSITY
TARGETS
CARBON PRICING
RD&D
PUBLIC PROCURMENT
DISCLOSURE & ESG
( ETC, 2018; Rissman, et al 2020; RMI, 2019 )

4. 4
Harder-to-Abate Sectors and Decarbonization in Taiwan
Short-term
Goals
Incumbents
Oriented
Work in
Silos
Lack of
policy
instruments
Energy Transition
Whitepaper
National GHG
reduction
action plan
Harder-to-Abate Sectors :
37% of CO2 emission in Taiwan
Refinery and
Petrochemical
17%
Iron &
Steel
13%
Cement
3%Othe
Industry
12%
Electronic
Industry
10%
Heavy
Duty
4%
Other
Transportati
on
11%
Building
23%
Legally binding reduction goal : - 50% by 2050 (2005 as base yeas).

5. 5
Research Objectives
Innovate Governance for
Harder-to-Abate sectors
New Methodology for
Transformative Policy Mix
Analysis
Formylating Transformative Policy
Mixes for TW.
Climate Strike @ Taipei, September 27th
photo by Roy Ngerng

6. 6
Hybrid Analytic Framework
Decarbonization
Pathway Analysis
Transition Needs
Assessment
Transformative
Policy Mixes
Formulation
• Quantitative energy system model
for long-term decarbonization pathways.
• Gaps and opportunities analysis
based on MLP.
• Elements of policy mixes
• Practical measures and
actions.

7. Decarbonization Pathway Analysis (1/2)
n Taiwan 2050 calculator
Ø Detail assessment of heavy industry
with material efficiency extension.
n The Global Change Assessment Model
(GCAM ) by US PNNL.
Ø Overall pathway to net zero emission in 2050 for
TW.

8. Decarbonization Pathway Analysis(2/2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Service of Heavy Duty Vehicles
(Billion ton-km)
BEV ICV
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2015 2050
Energy Demand of Heavy Industry (MLOE)
Iron & Steel Petrochemical Cement
Material
Efficiency
Energy
Efficiency
Ø Feedstock of Petrochemical Industry : - 27 %
Ø Physical Energy Intensity of Iron and Steel Industry : -20%
Ø Cement output : - 35%
Ø No new ICE trucks sold after 2040

9. 9
Industry
LANDSCAPE
REGIME
NICHE
Industry 4.0 Trade War
Political
Technology Public
Labor Union Political
Technology
Heavy Industry Heavy Duty Vehicles
Obsolescence Cycle
• Circular Business Model
• CCSU pilot project without
scale-up planning
Lobbying Power
State Ownership
Low
Innovation
Investment
Concern for climate and
local pollution
Industry
Public
Transition Needs Assessment
• Regular multi-stakeholders
dialogue platform
Lobbying Power
Conservative
Attitude toward
Low-Carbon
Technology
Tax
incentive
Dismantling
phase-out
policy of
highly-
polluted
trucks
Climate Delayism

10. Transformative Policy Mixes Formulation
TPM Transition Needs Recommendation Actions
Policy
Process
Destabilizing the incumbent industries
Citizen climate assembly that focus on
Carbon Pricing and Industrial Transition
Enhancing the acceptance of
labor union
Taiwan Mission Possible Platform
Policy
Strategy
Accelerating innovation investment SOE decarbonization strategic plan
Leverage the landscape opportunities
Energy Conditionality of National Flagship
Program for Industry 4.0
Instrument
Mixes
Accelerating Obsolescence Cycle Effective Carbon Pricing.
Setting up scaling-up schedule of
pilot project
Mission-oriented RD&D program
Mainstreaming circular business
model
Criteria of green public procurement.

11. Conclusions
Developing a stepwise analytic framework of Transformative
Policy Mixes that applied to climate and energy policy.
Transformative Policy Mixes can help to orchestrate the low
carbon policies and measures of hard-to-abate sectors.
The application in harder-to-abate sectors prove the value of transformative policy
mixes to guide system reconfiguration.