Conference presentation on 06/14/2023 at International Energy Workshop (IEW) at Colorado School of Mines, USA.

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Transitioning to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions in Taiwan:
A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of
Clean Energy Technology Development
Presenter
Ya-Hsuan Chiu
Associate Researcher
Green Energy & Environment Research Lab, ITRI
1
2023.06.13
Authors: Ya-hsuan Chiu, Meng-ying Lee, Pei-ling Wen, Jing-wei Kuo
2023 International Energy Workshop

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Introduction
Methodology
Results and Conclusion
2
Outline

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• Over 140 countries has declared their net-zero emission targets
• November 2020, Taiwan’s Legislature requested the Environmental Protection
Administration to deliver Taiwan’s national net-zero pathway and scenario analysis
• April 22nd 2021, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen announced goal of net-zero by 2050
3
Introduction
Net-Zero Pathway Task Force
Energy System
Decarbonization
Industry and
Energy Efficiency
Vehicle
Electrification
Carbon
Negative
contributed to ⁄
2
3 of carbon emissions in Taiwan in 2020
Policy Background
(Bureau of Energy,
Ministry of Economics Affairs)
(Bureau of Industry,
Ministry of Economics Affairs)
(Ministry of
Transportation)
(Ministry of Science
and Technology)
Five Working Groups
Governance
(Environmental
Protection
Administration)

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Procedure for Decarbonization Energy WG
Introduction Policy Background

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Introduction
• IEA (2021) Net-zero by 2050 report:
• “The path to net‐zero emissions requires immediate and massive deployment of all
clean and efficient energy technologies”
• “In 2050, almost half the reductions come from technologies that are currently at the
demonstration or prototype phase.”
• IEA (2020) Energy Technology Perspective:
• Database for countries when performing scenario analysis for net-zero target.
• Reviewed over 400 clean energy technologies across supply- and demand- side
• Assessed their Technology Readiness Level, developments, goals and significance to NZ
Energy planning from the perspective of technologies

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• Learning from other countries: South Korea, 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy; Australia, Technology
Investment Roadmap Discussion Paper
• Key strategies for the process
1. Technology-oriented: reviewed long-term feasible carbon reduction technologies and
strategies, rather than focus on existing technologies.
2. Multi-dimension assessment: Readiness and industrial development taken into
consideration. Discussed various aspects of technology.
3. Hierarchical discussion structure:
• Technology assessment teams handled technical details
• technical review committee set strategic directions
4. Participatory approach since early stage: external experts and stakeholders involved
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Shaping technology pathways through discussion
Introduction

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Methodology Framework of the multi-dimensional analysis
4-steps to establish a pathway considering the deployment of available and new technologies

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• Design procedure and scope
• Review assessment results
and technologies screening
• Set the deployment plan of
key technologies
• Evaluate technology
properties, comparative
advantage, carbon
abatement performance
• Develop pathways for key
technologies
Energy Technology
Review Committee
8 Technology Assessment Teams
Renewables
Power
System
Innovative
Energy
Solar
Wind
Geo-
thermal
Ocean
Energy
Bioenergy
Hydrogen
System
Integration
Energy
Storage
Energy System Decarbonization
Working Group
Methodology
Net-Zero Pathway Task Force
• Government reps. and
public energy utilities
• Academia
• Academia, industry: specific
technology
• Competent authorities for the
technology development
• R&D thinktanks
• Stakeholders: industrial
associations and NGOs
Composition and function of the working group
WHO
MISSION

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Methodology Composition and function of the working group
• Three rounds of discussion and ~20 participants for each meeting for every
technology team
• March to September 2021, over 50 meetings completed with the Energy
Technology Review Committee and the Technology Assessment Teams

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Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
Comparative advantage
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Methodology Assessment of technology properties (Step 2-1)
Current maturity stage of a technology in global markets from stage of
concept, prototype, demonstration, to adoption. (score: 1 to 11)
Advantages of developing domestic industry considering current status of
domestic supply chain, skilled labor, R&D capabilities, and natural resources
in Taiwan. (score: 1 to 5)

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Methodology Calculation of carbon abatement performance (Step 2-2)
Input
Output
Calculation
Yearly carbon abatement
volume of a technology in
the given scenario compared
to BaU (unit: ton)
Carbon abatement
potential
Per-ton Abatement Cost
Average cost for reducing
one ton of CO2e of a
technology in the given
scenario compared to BaU
(unit: $/ton)

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Methodology Calculation of carbon abatement performance (Step 2-2)
• Carbon abatement potential and per-ton abatement cost were estimated in
two scenarios for 2050
• mainly differ in: availability of land, penetration rate, efficiency and cost
Progressive scenario
• Progressive technology development
• Practical considering the feasibility of deployment
• Technology breakthrough occurs
• Only limited by physical/ resource/ environmental conditions
Breakthrough scenario

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 Based on the results of four indicators for each technology (abatement potential, cost, TRL and
comparative advantage), while considering critical issues for electricity system (e.g., stability and
flexibility), this study highlighted 4 types of key technology categories.
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Methodology
Priority abatement
technologies
Power generation
technologies with
high capacity factor
Technologies with
comparative
advantage
Supporting
technologies
• Weighted score: 75% for
potential and 25% for cost
• The first 2/3 ranked
technologies &
abatement potential > 1
million tons in 2050
• Potential installed
capacity > 1GW in
2050 & yearly
capacity factor
higher than 0.6
• Technologies score
higher than 3.5 in
comparative
advantage
• Technologies related
to power system
integration, energy
storage, and hydrogen
production/transport
/storage
Categorization principles of key technologies (Step3)

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Methodology Application of Taiwan TIMES model (Step 4)
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Taiwan TIMES
model
2020-2050
66 inter-annual
timeslices
Demand-side assumptions:
• Trends of industrial transformation, electrification, economic growth were set to
obtain the annual electricity demand and load curve.
Supply-side assumptions:
1. Capacity potential and deployment criteria (installed capacity limits, capacity
factors, efficiencies, lifetime and costs for renewable energies)
2. Technologies in category 2 and 3 were prioritized
3. Additional cost for power system integration
4. Commercialization timeframe for new technologies (hydrogen/ammonia co-firing,
CCS in new gas-fired power plants) and decommission plan for current generators
5. Fuel supply constraints (Hydrogen, carbon neutral LNG imports)
 To establish the long-term net-zero pathway, feedback and data obtained from the expert groups
were converted into parameters and constraints, and fully applied in Taiwan TIMES model (The
Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System).
 Times model is a bottom-up, technology-rich, dynamic, and linear programming optimization model

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Result Clean energy technologies list for Taiwan
Based on IEA’s clean energy technology database, 55 technologies feasible for Taiwan were listed.
Note:
TRL 9-11: mature
technology
TRL 5-8: technology
about to be mature
TRL 1-4: immature
technology

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Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for the technologies in 2050
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Result
• The abatement performance of each technology in 2050 in Progressive scenario and Breakthrough
scenario is estimated and shown in the MACC graphs. In the graphs, the X-axis shows the abatement
volume of a technology in the year 2050, and the Y-axis gives the marginal abatement cost.
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negative: cost-efficient
large abatement volume

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Visualization of Multi-dimensional analysis (1/2)
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Result
• Each bubble represents a technology that varies in four dimensions: TRL (The x-axis), abatement cost (the
y-axis), abatement potential (size of the bubbles), and comparative advantage (colors of the bubbles).
Progressive Scenario Breakthrough Scenario

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Result
3. Hydrogen fueled
gas turbine
● High abatement
potential, cost is close
to mature renewables.
● Rely on import.
4. Fixed-bottom
offshore wind
● High abatement
potential, low cost,
mature.
● Domestic industry still
lack behind.
2. Silicon tandem PV
● Low TRL.
● Complete domestic
industry chain,
requires investment
in R&D.
1. Ocean current
● Costly, low TRL.
● Abundant marine
resource and R&D
capacity.
1
2
4
3
Visualization of Multi-dimensional analysis (2/2)
Breakthrough Scenario
Technology Readiness Level

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Policy recommendations for key technology categories
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Result
Priority Abatement
Technologies
High Capacity Factor
Technologies
Technologies with
Comparative Advantage
Supporting
Technologies
Long-term deployment
plans, investment in
related software and
hardware
Increase composition
to maintain power
system stability, plan
for necessary
infrastructures
Encourage technology
breakthroughs in
manufacturing / R&D, assist
deployment in global
market
Deployment roadmaps for the
supporting infrastructure and
technologies to keep up with the
net-zero progress
TRL>9: Fixed-bottom
offshore wind,
conventional crystalline
silicon PV
TRL<8: Floating offshore
wind, hydrogen-fueled
gas turbine, ocean
current power
TRL>9: Biomass-based
power plants
TRL<8: Ocean current,
hydrogen-fueled gas
turbine, enhanced
geothermal power
TRL>9: Conventional
crystalline silicon PV, grid
digitalization, lithium-ion
battery storage
TRL<8: Biofuel power
generators or boilers, marine
energy, silicon tandem PV,
hydrogen fuel cell
TRL>9: Grid digitalization, renewable
energy forecasting, pumped storage,
lithium-ion battery storage, alkaline
electrolysis for hydrogen production,
NH3 transport
TRL<8: FACTS, dynamic line rating,
compressed-air energy storage, redox
flow battery, PEM for hydrogen
production, hydrogen transport in
natural gas pipelines

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Result Net-zero pathway for electricity sector
• The 2050 net-zero pathway for electricity sector
• based on the results from the TIMES model
• adjustments considering practical issues (e.g., challenges from high renewable penetration rate,
availability of CCS and carbon-neutral LNG volume).

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Conclusion
• This study designed a multi-dimensional assessment mechanism that
evaluated the potential development and characteristics of 55 clean energy
technologies within the 2050 net-zero timeframe.
• By launching a series of scientific assessment and review meetings and
applying energy modelling, we could provide more solid technology-based
perspectives for future development planning toward net-zero emissions
target.
• Future works:
• Tracking progress of working group
• Stakeholder engagement

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Acknowledgements:
1. The work was financially supported by the “Energy Economic Model and Strategy Simulation and Assessment” project
(110-A0102) from the Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan.
2. The authors would like to thank the experts from Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratories of ITRI for the
assistance of analysis in the process: Hom-Ti Lee, Ming-Shan Jeng, Hou-Peng Wan, Chih-Wen Liu, Fu-Ming Lin, Chong-Jie
Huang, Tung-Po Hsieh, Chih-Wei Yen, Yun-Yuan Chang, Shih-Sheng Hsu, Wen-Yang Hsu, Wen-Chi Chang, Yin-Lung Han, Bo-
Heng Lee, Wen-Sheng Chang, Cheng-Hsien Shen, Chien-Hsuan Yeh, Wen-Chang Lu, Tzu-Yueh Yang, Pei-Fang Liang, Shu-Wei
Liu, Chang-Chung Yang, Sheng-Cheng Chiu, Tzu-Yar Liu, Ming-Lung Hung, Chia-Yeh Hung, Hsiu-Chuan Lin, Yun-Chu Chen.
Thank you
Ya-hsuan Chiu chiu.yahsuan@itri.org.tw

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Methodology
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve, MACC
Calculation of carbon abatement performance (Step 2-2)