This document discusses social transmission and what is still unknown about its impact and characteristics. It questions how the volume and valence of social transmission affect outcomes over time, whether negative transmission can increase sales, and what makes content viral. It also examines the role of opinion leaders, network structure, and optimal seeding strategies in viral marketing. Going forward, it suggests rethinking assumptions about indicators, consequences, and the linearity of impact, taking a more dynamic, integrated perspective that considers contents, networks, behaviors and seeding strategies actively rather than passively.

1. Social Transmission:
What We Still Don’t Know?
School of Management, Fudan University
Liyin Jin
June 12, 2012 • Shanghai

2. 2

3. Social Transmission
3

4. Social Transmission:
4

5. Social Transmission :
5

6. Social Transmission: A Bite of China
6

7. Social Transmission: A Bite of Fudan
7

8. Social Transmission: A Bite of Taobao
8

9. Social Transmission: A Bite of Chemistry
9

10. Social Transmission: A BT of China
10

11. The Impact of Social Transmission
• Sharing online content is an integral part of
modern life.
• Such social transmission also has an important
impact on both consumers and brands
– Product adoption(Chevalier & Mayzlin 2006)
– Sales(Godes & Mayzlin 2009)
– Stock price(Tirunillai &Tellis, 2011)
• Most researches focused on the consequences of
social transmission
11

12. What Characteristics of Social
Transmission Matter?
• Volume (Liu, 2006; Liu, Rui & Whinston, 2012)
• Valence(Chintagunta, Gopinath &
Venkataraman, 2010; Chevalier & Mayzlin, 2006)
12

13. Volume of social transmission
• How does the quantity of social transmission, and its
distribution over time impact sales?
– A linear or non-linear impact?
– A sub-additive or diminishing marginal impact?
Quantity
Time 13

14. Valence of social transmission
• Can negative social transmission about a
product increase sales? and if so, when and why?
Source: Berger et al.(2010) 14

15. Valence of Social Transmission
• Valence changes
Source: Jansen et al.(2009)
15

16. What Makes Online Content Viral?
• While it is clear that social transmission is
both frequent and important……but,
• Why certain pieces of online content are
more viral than others?
• Is virality just random, or might certain
characteristics predict whether content will
be highly shared?
16

17. The Role of Psychological Arousal
Source: Berger et al.(2012) 17

18. 18

19. Social Transmission Over Different
Time Horizons
• Immediate and ongoing social transmission
– More interesting products vs. visible products
Quantity
Time 19

20. Who Influence Whom and How?
20

21. The Value of Opinion Leaders
• Different role of Hub, Pumps, Bridges, Followers,
and Fringes…
21

22. The Value of Network Structure
• Centrality, Connectivity
• Susceptibility, Activity
22

23. Seeding Strategy
• Optimal seeding strategies for viral
marketing campaigns
– High-Degree Seeding (hubs)
– Low-Degree Seeding (fringes)
– High-Betweenness Seeding (bridges)
– Random Seeding
23

24. Seeding Strategy
Source: Hinz et al.(2012) 24

25. Rethinking the Assumptions…
• The indicators of social transmission
– Volume distribution over time
– Valence changes
– Emotional icons, arousal
– Network structure…
• The consequences of social transmission
– Width, length, time, speed…
– Brand involved…
– Topic transition…
– Market response…
• The linear impact of social transmission
– Sub-additive or diminishing marginal impact
25

26. Rethinking the Directions…
• What happened Why happened
– Outcomes  Process
• Static  dynamic
– Cross-sectional  Longitudinal
• Separated perspective Integrated perspective
– Contents, network structure, behavioral characteristics of the
participants, and seeding strategies
• Passively  Actively
– Monitoring  Seeding
26

27. Go beyond the business area...
27

28. Thanks!
谢谢！
28