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Spatial presentation of prognosis models in plant protection

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Presentation by Manfred Röhrig from ISIP during CAPIGI 2011 4-6 April 2011 in Amsterdam.

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Spatial presentation of prognosis models in plant protection

  1. 1. Spatial presentation of prognosis models in plant protection – development and usage of risk maps<br />Manfred Röhrig, ISIPBad Kreuznach, Germany<br />CAPIGI 2011, 4-6 April 2011, Amsterdam, NL<br />
  2. 2. Organisations involved<br />ZEPP<br />Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection<br />ISIP<br />Information System for Integrated Plant production<br />
  3. 3. Use of prognosis models<br />ZEPP<br />field data<br />met data<br />model<br />ISIP<br />dissemination<br />
  4. 4. Contents of ISIP<br />Individual<br />Decision Support<br />Regional<br />News<br />General<br />Encyclopaedia<br />
  5. 5. <ul><li>97 stations of the German Meteorological Service
  6. 6. 463 stations of the State Agric. Advisory Services</li></ul>Met data<br />
  7. 7. Which station is relevant?<br />Solution:<br />Interpolation of met data<br />Before: 3 met stations<br />Now: 1367 virtual stations<br />
  8. 8. Based on soil-climate-regions<br /><ul><li>24 zones
  9. 9. Grid cell size 1 km2
  10. 10. ~ 300.000 grid cells</li></ul>Interpolation zones<br />
  11. 11. 24 May 2007<br />1700<br />Convective rainfall<br />0 mm<br />0 – 2.4 mm<br />2.4 – 4.9 mm<br />4.9 – 7.5 mm<br />7.5 – 11.4 mm<br />> 11.4 mm<br />met stations<br />
  12. 12. Solution for rainfall<br />Radar measurements are spatial, but deliver only intensities<br />Rain gauges measure the amount of rain, but only site specific<br /><ul><li>Calibration of radar pictures with rain gauge network</li></ul>+<br />=<br />
  13. 13. Spatialmetdata<br />metdata<br />elevation<br />longitude<br />latitude<br />temperature<br />humidity<br />
  14. 14. Spatialmetdata<br />metdata<br />elevation<br />longitude<br />latitude<br />temperature<br />humidity<br />precip.<br />
  15. 15. Spatialmetdata<br />metdata<br />elevation<br />longitude<br />latitude<br />temperature<br />humidity<br />precip.<br />model<br />
  16. 16. Spatialmetdata<br />metdata<br />elevation<br />longitude<br />latitude<br />temperature<br />humidity<br />precip.<br />model<br />riskmap<br />
  17. 17. From theory to practice<br />300.000 grid cells<br />73 model variations<br />Maps of ten days in retrospect<br /><ul><li>300.000 × 73 × 10 = 219.000.000
  18. 18. model runs
  19. 19. Online provision: Need for optimization</li></li></ul><li>
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  24. 24. iGreen<br />brings<br />theinternet<br />tothefield<br />
  25. 25. digital geo data<br />mobile internet<br />positioning systems<br />Enabling technologies<br />
  26. 26.
  27. 27. Summary<br />Prognosis models<br />Enhanced by geostatistics<br />Riskmaps<br />Ease interpretation of model results<br />Met data with high spatial resolution<br />Enable location based services<br /><ul><li>New generation of online decision support</li></li></ul><li>Special thanks go to ...<br /><ul><li>The colleagues of the advisory services for their constant input and support</li></ul>… The scientific community for their modelling efforts<br />… You for your attention!<br />
  28. 28. Spatial presentation of prognosis models in plant protection – development and usage of risk maps<br />Manfred Röhrig, ISIPBad Kreuznach, Germany<br />CAPIGI 2011, 4-6 April 2011, Amsterdam, NL<br />

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