sociology note

1. What is Theory?

2. Theory is NOT:
 Correlation
 Description
 Interpretation
 Absence of data
 Ideology

3. Theory IS:
 A general, abstract explanation

4. Theories simplify reality
 The world is complex
 Theories tell us what to pay attention to

5. Theories have empirical
implications
 Assume the existence of a real world
 Aim to increase understanding, not to
accomplish political, moral, or social ends
 Have empirical implications
 If X, then Y, where X and Y are
observables

6. Social theories
 Explain social rather than individual
outcomes
 We are interested in explaining the
behavior of social systems rather than of
individuals

7. Social theories
 Are composed of
 Causal relations
 Causal mechanisms

8. Causal Relations
 The outcome
 The thing you are trying to explain
 Also called
 Dependent variable
 Effect

9. Causal Relations, cont’d
 The cause
 A factor such that change in it is associated
with change in the outcome
 Also called
 Independent variable

10. Causal Relations, cont’d
 So, X causes Y if by modifying X, one
can affect Y
 An explanation includes an assertion of
such a causal relation

11. Causal Mechanisms
 The link between the cause and the
outcome
 In other words, the process through which
the cause leads to the outcome
We will say more about this later

12. How do we know which theory is
best?
 Empirical evidence
 Theories produce empirical predictions
about how change in a causal variable will
affect an outcome variable
 These predictions are called hypotheses

13. Example: Durkheim’s theory of
suicide
 The level of individualism in a group affects
the rate of suicide in the group
 Individualism – a cause
 The degree to which individual activities are
controlled by individuals themselves rather than
by others
 Suicide rate – an outcome
 Some countries/groups have a low rate; others a
relatively high one

14. Empirical implications
 If Protestants are more individualistic than
Catholics
 Then Protestants in France will have higher
suicide rates than Catholics in France
 If unmarried men are more individualistic
than married men
 Then unmarried men will have a higher rate of
suicide than married men

15. Empirical implications, cont’d
 To determine whether the predictions
are supported by the data, we must pay
attention to three things:
 Correlation
 Causal Order
 Spuriousness

16. Correlation
 A change in X is associated with a
change in outcome Y

17. Causal order
 The cause must occur before the effect
 It is possible to change the value of the
dependent variable by changing the causal
variable
 In other words, if you change X, Y will
change
Cause Outcome
(x) (Y)

18. Non-spuriousness
 To infer causality, all possible spurious
causes of Y (the dependent variable)
must be ruled out
 That is, the researcher must determine
that a third variable is not responsible for
the observed relation between X and Y

19. Example: The Protestant Ethic
 Max Weber noted that the initial geographic
distribution of European industrial capitalism
seemed correlated with the % of Protestants
in a country
 Protestantism  industrial capitalism
 Possible spurious causes
 Perhaps countries with large coal reserves tended
to be Protestant
 If coal reserves  industrial capitalism, then
Protestantism is a spurious relation

20. Example The Protestant Ethic
Capitalism
Protestantism
Coal Reserves

21. Assessing theories
 If the theoretical predictions are
consistent with what we observe, then
we have more confidence in the theory

22. Caveats
 Very few ‘classical theories’ live up to
these expectations
 They do not always explicitly articulate
causal relations and causal mechanisms
 Not many contemporary ones do, either

23. Theories are imperfect
 Theories simplify reality
 Theories must omit much, must
overemphasize much
 Hence, all theories are imperfect

24. How to choose between rival
theories?
 Ultimate criterion: empirical adequacy
 The best theory is the one that is most
consistent with observable empirical
phenomena