Presentation globalfuturesvcm

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Presentation globalfuturesvcm

  1. 1. The Global Futures Project <br />And<br />Virtual Crop Modeling<br />http://www.yannarthusbertrand2.org/<br />Bernardo Creamer<br />CIAT, May 18, 2011<br />
  2. 2. The Challenges Facing Agriculture<br />Price volatility and food scarcity<br />Unprecedented demands on the world’s agricultural systems<br />Rising incomes in the developing countries<br />Unsustainable natural resource degradation <br />Climate change <br />Enhancing the productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems<br />Degradation of agricultural lands<br />Limited space<br />Page 2<br />
  3. 3. Hunger<br />
  4. 4. Hunger<br />Mileniumgoalsachievement (FAO)<br />
  5. 5. Challenge<br />Poverty<br />Hunger<br />Vulnerability<br />Solutions<br />
  6. 6. Vulnerability<br />WB: Risk of hungerfor 60 M people<br />
  7. 7. Search for Solutions<br /><ul><li>Agriculturalproductionsituation
  8. 8. Actual
  9. 9. Predicted
  10. 10. Existence of tecnology?
  11. 11. Howmuch do weknow (uncertainty)?
  12. 12. Can wedevelopmitigatingtechnologies?
  13. 13. Whatstrategies are better?
  14. 14. Priorities
  15. 15. Meassuringresults</li></li></ul><li>Global Futures: Decision Analysis Tool<br />Improve <br />Agricultural productivity and <br />Environmental sustainability <br />in developing countries. <br />Focused on <br />Evaluating promising technologies, <br />Investments, and <br />Policy reforms<br />
  16. 16. Decision Analisis Processes<br />Crop Modeling<br />Geographic information<br />Changes in yields<br />Future scenarios<br />Economic analysis<br />Virtual crop<br />Solutions<br />
  17. 17. Decision Analysis<br />
  18. 18. IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade”<br />Representation of a global competitive agricultural market for water, crops and livestock<br />Global<br />115 countries <br />281 food production units<br />32 agricultural commodities<br />Economic evaluation:IMPACT model<br />
  19. 19. 32 IMPACT Commodities (SPAM)<br />Cereals<br />Wheat, Rice, Maize, Other Coarse Grains + Millet, Sorghum<br />Roots & Tubers<br />Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes & Yams, Cassava & Other Roots and Tubers<br />Dryland legumes<br />Chickpea, Pigeonpea, Groundnut<br />Livestock products<br />Beef, Pork, Sheep & Goat, Poultry, Eggs, Milk<br />Fish<br />Eight capture and aquaculture fish commodities plus fish meals and fish oils<br />High-Value<br />Vegetables, (Sub)-Tropical Fruits, Temperate Fruits, Sugar Cane, Sugar Beets and Sweeteners<br />Other<br />Soybeans, Meals, Oils<br />Non-food<br />Cotton, Biofuel products (ethanol, biodiesel)<br />
  20. 20. Global Economic Regions (115)<br />
  21. 21. Global Basins (126)<br />
  22. 22. Global Food Production Units (281 FPUs)<br />Higher river basin spatial resolution planned for better water availability modeling<br />
  23. 23. Page 16<br />Policy drivers<br />Domestic Biofuel Prodn<br />Other Demand<br />Demand<br />Socioeconomic<br />Drivers <br />Feed<br />Food<br />Trade Equilibrium Balance<br />Agric.<br />Imports/<br />exports<br />Trade<br />policy<br />child<br />malnutrition<br />Price<br />Calorie Availability<br />Irrigation investments<br />Area<br />Female education<br />Clean water access<br />Supply<br />Rural Roads<br />Yield<br />[investments]<br />Ag R&D investments<br />Climate change<br />Environmental driver<br />Key elements of IMPACT model<br />Water usage<br />Water availability drivers<br />
  24. 24. Virtual Crop<br />Crop Model<br />Genetic Coefficients<br />Plant Gene<br />
  25. 25. Virtual Crop<br />
  26. 26. Needforvalidation<br />Challenge: <br />Findfuturescenarios and sitestoconducttrials<br />

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