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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
TIL, one of the oldest construction equipment (CE) suppliers in India, caters to
requirements of the core sectors of the economy such as power, steel and infra.
With the economy on recovery path and likely strong capex on the infrastructure
and industrial fronts, we expect demand for CE to increase and volume to register
a CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13 v/s 13% during CY2005-09. We believe that
TIL is well placed to capitalise on the burgeoning infra and industrial capex.
Overall, we estimate the company to register a CAGR of 31% in revenues and of
24% in profit over FY2010-12. At `681, the stock is trading at inexpensive
valuations of 7.4x FY2012E earnings. We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a
Buy recommendation and Target price of `823.
Rising infra spend and private capex to boost demand for CE: The demand for
CE is driven by infrastructure spend and private capex. Total infrastructure and
industrial capex is expected to register a CAGR of 13% over FY2010-12
increasing from `532,000cr in FY2010 to `684,400cr in FY2012. CE volume is
expected to log a CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13, as against 13% registered over
CY2005-09. Consequently, total demand for CE is expected to increase from
35,000 units at the end of CY2009 to 68,000 units by CY2013.
In sweet spot: TIL has rich experience of over 66 years in supplying construction
equipment to the core sectors. TIL’s strong product alliance-based portfolio places
it sweet spot to capitalise on the vast upcoming opportunities. Overall, we expect
TIL to register a CAGR of 31% and 24% over FY2010-12 in revenues and profit,
respectively.
Attractive valuation: On the valuation front, at current levels, TIL trades at 7.4x
FY2012E earnings, which is at a discount to peers like Bharat Earth Movers
(BEML) and Action Construction Equipment (ACE) that are trading at 12.4x and
9.9x FY2012E earnings, respectively. Moreover, we believe that the discount in
valuation that the stock fetches due to the perceived risk of termination or
discontinuance of CAT dealership is unwarranted. Also on comparing valuations
of companies operating on franchisee business model, we believe TIL’s valuations
are undemanding.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 1,037 1,055 1,394 1,816
% chg (1.9) 1.7 32.2 30.3
Net Profit 45 60 66 92
% chg 3.8 33.1 10.2 39.8
EBITDA (%) 9.1 11.4 9.7 9.9
EPS (`) 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4
P/E (x) 15.3 11.5 10.4 7.4
P/BV (x) 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.6
RoE (%) 21.7 23.4 21.5 24.4
RoCE (%) 24.2 25.9 24.6 28.1
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 6.5 6.2 4.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP `681
Target Price `823
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 50.7
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.1
FII / NRIs / OCBs 3.6
Indian Public / Others 25.6
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 11 20 14
TIL 29 117 128
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
683
0.6
689/243
19627
Capital Goods
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
10
20,165
6,066
TILL.BO
TIL@IN
Sageraj Bariya
22-40403800 Extn: 346
sageraj.bariya@angelbroking.com
TIL
‘Til’l long term
 
Quick take
October 22, 2010 2
TIL
Quick take
Investment Arguments
Rising infra spend, private capex to boost demand for CE
The demand for CE is driven by infrastructure spend and private capex. We expect
the CE sector to achieve strong leg up with the Government of India (GoI) having
chalked out substantial outlay for the infrastructure sector in the Eleventh Five-Year
Plan. As per industry reports, total infra spend and industrial capex is expected to
register a CAGR of 13% over FY2010-12 increasing from `532,000cr in FY2010
to `684,400cr in FY2012.
Exhibit 1: Capex to remain robust
Source: Industry, Angel Research
CE volume is expected to register a CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13 v/s 13%
registered over CY2005-09. Consequently, total demand for construction
equipment is expected to increase from 35,000 units at the end of CY2009 to
68,000 units by CY2013. Overall, we expect opportunity for the CE manufacturers
to remain robust.
Exhibit 2: Construction Equipment – Increasing Industry demand
Source: Off-Highway Research, Angel Research
31
24
14
12
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
(%)
(`cr)
Industrial Capex Infra Capex % YoY
22
31
49
43
35
46
52
61
68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
('000Units)
CAGR - 13%
Total infra spend and private capex is
expected to increase from `532,000cr
in FY2010 to `684,400cr in FY2012
CE volume is expected to increase at a
CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13 v/s 13%
CAGR logged over CY2005-09
October 22, 2010 3
TIL
Quick take
In sweet spot
TIL has rich experience of over 66 years of supplying CE to the core sectors of the
economy. TIL’s strong product alliance-based portfolio places it in an
advantageous position to capitalise on the vast upcoming opportunities.
Exhibit 3: Revenue mix – FY2010
Source: Company, Angel Research Note – CMS & PSS comprises of CAT
dealership business
Exhibit 4: EBIT mix – FY2010
Source: Company, Angel Research
MHE division: Ports and road segments to drive growth
In the MHE segment, the company has a strong product portfolio developed over a
period of time through tie-ups with the best in industry. The segment primarily
comprises Pick-n-Carry (PnC) cranes and truck mounted cranes and others. TIL is a
leader in truck mounted cranes with a market share of approximately
60-70%. TIL’s products find application in road development, port infrastructure
and other ancillary industries. As per the Eleventh Five-year Plan, total demand for
CE arising from road and port sector is valued at `115,800cr.
Exhibit 5: Tie-ups in MHE segment
Product Company
Mobile telescoping cranes Grove Worldwide, USA
Lattice-boom crawler cranes Manitowoc Crane Group, USA
Container handling cranes Paceco Corp, USA
Port cranes FAMAK - SA, Poland
Lift trucks & warehousing equipment Hyster
Hot mix asphalt equipment Astec Inc
Source: Company, Angel Research
Total investment of `401,488cr is expected to flow into the road sector during the
Plan period in turn resulting in demand for CE worth around `84,313-92,342cr.
Port infrastructure comprising cargo handling, container, bulk and liquid handling
systems are also expected to witness robust investment going ahead. Given that
private sector participation in ports is high, we expect investments would continue.
The port sector is expected to attract total investment of `105,000cr during the
Plan period generating demand for CE in the region of `31,500-36,750cr.
TIL plans to expand capacity by setting up a new manufacturing facility in
Kharagpur, West Bengal at a total planned capex of `300cr over three phases. We
believe that given TIL’s comfortable debt:equity position of 0.4x at the end of
MHE
16%
CMS
61%
PSS
23% MHE
28%
CMS
51%
PSS
21%
TIL is a market leader in truck mounted
cranes with market share of ~ 60-70%
The MHE division is expected to register
a CAGR of 34.9% over FY2010-12E as
against 1.4% recorded over FY2008-10
October 22, 2010 4
TIL
Quick take
FY2010, it would be easy for company to fund its capex with help of internal
accrual and debt. Under Phase-1 in FY2011 TIL would incur capex of `120cr and
expects to generate revenues of `200-250cr in the first year of operation. On
completion of full capex, we expect the new facility to contribute approximately
`1,000cr at peak utilisation level.
Overall, we expect the MHE division to register a CAGR of 34.9% over FY2010-12
as against 1.4% recorded over FY2008-10.
CMS division: Power, metal and coal sectors to aid growth
TIL is the exclusive dealer for global leader, Caterpillar’s products primarily in
north and east India including West Bengal, all the north-eastern states, Orissa,
Jharkhand, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, J&K,
Rajasthan, NCR region, and Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar. We believe that TIL is
in sweet spot and is likely to benefit over long term given that East India has
approximately 40% of the country’s iron ore reserves and 45% of coal reserves,
and beefed up by CAT’s global brand and leadership position in the CMS market.
Recently, TIL spun off its CAT dealership business (CMS and PSS divisions) into a
100% subsidiary in its bid increase focus on the same. Under this division, TIL
supplies a comprehensive range of Caterpillar construction and mining equipment
as well as engines and gen sets.
The government's focus on the power sector through "Power for all by 2012" is
expected to be achieved via the Accelerated Power Development and Reform
Programme (APDRP), Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) and rising trend of
captive power plants. We believe that higher investments in the power sector would
drive capex plans of the mining industry, which would in turn be primarily led by
the coal industry. Hence, we expect Coal India as well as captive coal mining to
increasingly source equipment. As per the Eleventh Five-year Plan, total demand
for construction equipment arising from the power and related sectors is likely to
be in region of `161,950cr.
Overall, we expect TIL’s CMS division to grow at average rate of 30% over
FY2010-12 as against de-growth of 5% over FY2008-10.
PSS division: Availability of gas to boost growth
Caterpillar is the world's largest manufacturer of medium speed engines, as well
as one of the world's largest manufacturers of high speed diesel engines, with
ratings available from 54 to 13,600hp (40 to 10,000kW). The core focus products
are the diesel generators ranging from 200 to 3500 KVA and gas generators from
1,000 to 3,500KVA.
Current PSS market primarily comprises diesel engines where Cummins is a leader
with +50% market share, while TIL is at around 15%. Going ahead, due to
availability of gas we believe that there would be a shift and expect TIL to benefit
given its leadership position in market with share of 40%.
The Indian genset market is valued at `5,000cr and is expected to register a CAGR
of 15% till 2012 (Source: Frost & Sullivan). In case of TIL, its rich experience and
TIL has been the sole dealer of
Caterpillar products in East and North
India for more than past 66 years
The CMS division is expected to grow at
30% over FY2010-12 as against
de-growth of 5% recorded over
FY2008-10
The PSS division is expected to register
23.5% CAGR over FY2010-12, as
against 12.3% logged during
FY2008-10
October 22, 2010 5
TIL
Quick take
strong product portfolio provides it an edge over peers who either lack strong
product backing (unlike TIL’s CAT) or have limited experience.
Overall, we expect TIL’s PSS division to register 23.5% CAGR over FY2010-12, as
against 12.3% during FY2008-10.
Hidden gems
Spare parts and maintenance business: Apart from pure product sale, TIL also
earns revenue through customer support agreements (CSA) and, maintenance and
repair contract (MARC) and supply of spare parts for products under CMS and PSS.
This business fetches high margins compared to the other main products.
Rental and used equipment business: TIL also has a presence in the rental
equipment business, which has immense potential. The rental business contributes
2-3% of revenues per annum. As per ICRA, the market for used equipment is three
times the primary market. In case of rental equipment business, penetration is
estimated to be in region of 7-8% as against the global average of 50-80% (EU –
30%, UK – 60%). We expect the rental market to grow with the user industries
increasingly preferring to minimise investments and register higher utilisation of
assets on account of renting the construction equipment.
The key equipment rented out in this segment include, backhoe loaders, pick-and-
carry (PNC) cranes, excavators, motor graders and vibratory compactors.
Currently, there are few organised players in the fray apart from TIL like Quippo
Infrastructure Equipment, Sanghvi Movers (for cranes), ABG Infralogistics and
GMMCO. We believe this segment has strong growth potential going ahead as the
economy revives and capex picks up.
Penetration of the equipment rental
business is estimated to be in the region
of 7-8% as against the global average
of 50-80%
October 22, 2010 6
TIL
Quick take
Financials
Sales to revive from hereon
During FY2008-10, TIL’s sales remained largely flat at `1,055cr on account of the
slowdown witnessed in the economy, which resulted in major industrial capex
getting postponed. However, going ahead, on the back of recovering economy,
rising infrastructure spend and prevailing high capacity utilisation, industrial capex
is expected to pick up. Overall, TIL’s revenues are expected to improve and register
healthy CAGR of 31% over FY2010-12.
Exhibit 6: Segment-wise Gross revenue break-up
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Revenue trend
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Total Revenue includes other
operating income
In FY2010 TIL posted one of best EBITDA margins at 11.4% on the back of cost
cutting measures, strong execution and cooling of commodity prices. We however,
expect EBITDA margin to normalise and revert to the long-term average of 10% in
FY2011. In FY2012, post commissioning of the new high-margin MHE plant, we
expect margins to sustain at these levels.
Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Segmental EBITDA margin trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
In FY2011, with margins normalising, PAT is expected to record muted growth of
10% for the year. However, in FY2012 due to almost steady margins, PAT is
expected to rebound and record 40% yoy growth.
165 187 170 221 309
708 658 646
840
1,092
196 206 247
301
377
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
(`cr)
MHE CMS PSS
1,069 1,050 1,063
1,362
1,778
1,058 1,037 1,055
1,394
1,816
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
(%YoY)
(`cr)
Net Sales % YoY
9.8
8.9
7.6 8.1
9.1
11.4
9.7 9.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011E
FY2012E
(%)
17
20
24
17 18
8
10
12
8 8
9
14 13
9 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011E
FY2012E
(%)
MHE CMS PSS
October 22, 2010 7
TIL
Quick take
Exhibit 10: PAT trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Healthy return ratios to persist
On the back of strong top-line growth and improving EBITDA margins TIL has
been posting healthy return ratios. The company’s RoCE and RoE improved from
15% and 14% in FY2006 to 26% and 23% in FY2010, respectively. In FY2011
however, we estimate the company’s RoCE and RoE to drop 25% and 21%
respectively, owing to the decline in EBITDA margin. In FY2012 however, return
ratios would recover and post 28% and 24%, respectively.
Exhibit 11: Healthy profitability
Source: Company, Angel Research
43 45
60
66
92
(15)
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
(%)
(`cr)
Adj PAT % YoY
15
20
29
24
26
25
28
14
21
29
22
23
21
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
(%)
RoCE RoE
October 22, 2010 8
TIL
Quick take
Exhibit 12: DuPont Analysis
FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
EBITDA / Sales (%) 9.1 11.4 9.7 9.9
Sales / Total Asset (x) 3.3 2.8 3.2 3.6
PBT / EBITDA (x) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
PAT / PBT (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Total Asset / Networth (x) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
RoE (%) 21.7 23.4 21.5 24.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concerns
Cancellation of CAT’s dealership – TIL’s dealership agreement with CAT has no
time-line specified. Hence, there exist possibilities of CAT canceling the dealership
with minimum notice period. However, we believe there are minimal chances of
this eventuality as globally CAT operates on a dealership model and till date it has
cancelled only 2-3 dealerships of the total 193 dealerships in operation.
Moreover, TIL has developed The CAT dealership (since 1944) and currently has
strong network and support centre.
Threat of low-cost imports from countries like China: The Chinese’s domestic
market for CE is estimated to be 6x that of India’s size. Hence, the Chinese market
has many home-grown players with huge capacity coupled with strong cost
advantage. Many of these players have also entered India and have been
increasing their share. However, we believe that the threat from Chinese players is
short term in nature given lack spare parts and warranty support as well as poor
resale value for the products.
Economic risks: The company is exposed to broader economic risks including
contraction in private capex activity and increase in competition.
Volatility in basic commodity prices- Any abnormal up-move in the basic metal
prices could adversely impact the company’s operating margins.
Forex fluctuations: Around 30% of TIL's cost of material are denominated in
currencies other than the rupee. Hence, any volatility in the exchange rate could
impact the company's profit.
October 22, 2010 9
TIL
Quick take
Outlook and Valuation
We believe that an improving economic scenario, continued government focus on
infrastructure spend and pick up in private capex augurs well for companies
supplying CE to the core sectors of the economy. We expect TIL’s CMS and PSS
division to revert to high growth path, while the MHE division would continue to
post healthy growth with the new plant coming on stream by April 2011. Overall,
we estimate TIL to register a CAGR of 31% and 24% in net sales and PAT over
FY2010-12, respectively.
On the valuation front, at `681 TIL is trading at 7.4x FY2012E earnings, which is
at a discount to peers like BEML and Action Construction Equipment (ACE) that are
trading at 12.4x and 9.9x FY2012E earnings, respectively. The discount in
valuation that the stock fetches is due to the perceived risk of termination or
discontinuance of the CAT dealership, which we believe is unwarranted. This is
because there are minimal chances of this eventuality as globally CAT operates on
a dealership model and till date has cancelled only 2-3 dealerships. Moreover, TIL
since 1944 when it entered into the CAT dealership has developed a strong
network and support centre.
Exhibit 13: Peer Valuations
CMP Mkt Cap Sales ` cr CAGR -FY10-12 (%) RoIC (%)* P/E (x) P/B (x)
Company ` ` cr FY11E FY12E Sales PAT FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
ACE 65 586 611 826 39 67 22.7 28.0 15.5 9.9 2.8 2.1
BEML 1,144 4,764 3,400 4,105 20 20 7.2 7.4 14.8 12.4 1.9 1.7
Average 15.0 17.7 15.2 11.2 2.3 1.9
TIL 681 683 1,394 1,816 31 24 23.2 28.0 10.4 7.4 2.0 1.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research. *Note – Angel RoIC
Given that the CAT dealership contributes bulk of revenue and profit, one can view
TIL’s business as a franchisee operations. On comparing valuation of companies
operating on similar business model (franchisee), we believe TIL’s valuations are
undemanding.
Exhibit 14: Valuations – Key Franchisee Business
CMP Mkt Cap Sales ` cr CAGR -FY10-12 (%) RoIC (%)* P/E (x) P/B (x)
Company ` ` cr FY11E FY12E Sales PAT FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12
Redington 83 3,288 16,574 19,452 19 13 17.0 21.0 14.1 11.2 2.5 2.1
Jubliant FoodWorks 507 3,262 594 800 37 53 55.0 71.0 50.2 41.9 18.9 13.8
Page Industries 1,235 1,473 456 608 34 27 41.8 43.9 28.0 21.3 12.1 10.1
HCL Infosystem 119 2,588 12,608 14,035 8 22 21.0 25.9 9.2 7.3 1.3 1.2
Average 33.7 40.4 25.4 20.4 8.7 6.8
TIL 681 683 1,394 1,816 31 24 23.2 28.0 10.4 7.4 2.0 1.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research. *Note – Angel RoIC
We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and Target Price of
`823, at which level it would trade at 9x FY2012E earnings.
October 22, 2010 10
TIL
Quick take
Exhibit 15: One-year forward P/E
Source: C-line, Angel Research
Exhibit 16: One-year forward EV/EBITDA
Source: C-line, Angel Research
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Apr-04
Aug-04
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
(`)
Price 3x 6x 9x 12x 15x
-
150
300
450
600
750
900
1,050
Apr-04
Aug-04
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
(EV`cr)
EV 3x 4x 5x 6x 7x
October 22, 2010 11
TIL
Quick take
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Gross sales 766.4 1,055.3 1,024.3 1,021.3 1,362.5 1,778.3
Less: Excise duty 19.1 25.8 23.1 13.8 27.2 35.6
Net Sales 747.4 1,029.5 1,001.2 1,007.4 1,335.2 1,742.7
Other operating income 20.3 28.4 36.2 47.1 58.9 73.7
Total operating income 767.7 1,057.9 1,037.4 1,054.6 1,394.2 1,816.4
% chg 40.2 37.8 (1.9) 1.7 32.2 30.3
Total Expenditure 711.0 974.9 945.8 939.3 1,264.8 1,644.4
Net Raw Materials 615.0 855.9 795.5 784.9 1,061.0 1,378.6
Other Mfg costs 48.0 57.7 69.6 54.0 69.7 90.8
Personnel 37.2 48.4 66.7 87.4 120.2 156.8
Other 10.9 12.9 13.9 13.1 13.9 18.2
EBITDA 56.7 83.0 91.6 115.2 129.4 171.9
% chg 21.6 46.4 10.4 25.8 12.3 32.9
(% of Net Sales) 7.6 8.1 9.1 11.4 9.7 9.9
Depreciation& Amortisation 12.2 12.8 16.6 19.4 22.3 30.1
EBIT 44.5 70.2 75.0 95.9 107.0 141.8
% chg 33.7 58.0 6.8 27.8 11.7 32.5
(% of Net Sales) 5.9 6.8 7.5 9.5 8.0 8.1
Interest & other Charges 13.4 16.8 22.8 16.0 14.7 12.0
Other Income 4.5 12.3 13.0 11.5 7.0 9.1
(% of PBT) 12.5 18.7 19.9 12.6 7.0 6.5
Recurring PBT 35.5 65.7 65.3 91.4 99.4 138.9
% chg 68.9 85.1 (0.6) 39.9 8.8 39.8
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 35.5 65.7 65.3 91.4 99.4 138.9
Tax 12.2 22.6 20.6 31.8 33.8 47.2
(% of PBT) 34.3 34.4 31.5 34.8 34.0 34.0
PAT (reported) 23.3 43.1 44.7 59.5 65.6 91.7
Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
Prior period items - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 23.3 43.1 44.7 59.5 65.6 91.7
ADJ. PAT 23.4 43.1 44.7 59.5 65.6 91.7
% chg 68.9 84.0 3.8 33.1 10.2 39.8
(% of Net Sales) 3.1 4.2 4.5 5.9 4.9 5.3
Basic EPS (`) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4
% chg 68.9 78.5 3.8 33.1 10.2 39.8
October 22, 2010 12
TIL
Quick take
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 112 170 223 266 325 406
Shareholders Funds 122 180 233 276 335 416
Minority Interest - - - - - -
Total Loans 89 88 113 109 135 105
Deferred Tax Liability 2 3 3 6 8 11
Total Liabilities 212 271 349 391 477 531
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 134 160 182 211 236 366
Less: Acc. Depreciation 59 68 81 95 118 148
Net Block 76 91 100 116 118 218
Capital Work-in-Progress 1 11 19 20 130 26
Goodwill / Intangibles - - - - - -
Investments - - - - - -
Current Assets 379 457 436 518 543 712
Cash 4 6 46 43 16 25
Loans & Advances 37 55 66 96 73 80
Other 338 396 324 379 453 607
Current liabilities 243 288 206 262 314 425
Net Current Assets 136 169 230 256 229 287
Others - - - - - -
Total Assets 212 271 349 391 477 531
October 22, 2010 13
TIL
Quick take
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Profit before tax 35 66 65 91 99 139
Depreciation 24 25 39 32 37 42
Change in Working Capital 10 (37) (24) (28) 2 (50)
Less: Other income - - - - - -
Direct taxes paid (13) (21) (19) (31) (34) (47)
Cash Flow from Operations 56 33 61 64 105 84
(Inc)./ Dec. in Fixed Assets (5) (31) (36) (34) (135) (26)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 1 2 3 1 - -
Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances - - - - - -
Other income - - - - - -
Cash Flow from Investing (4) (29) (33) (33) (135) (26)
Issue of Equity (2) 19 - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (35) (1) 26 (4) 26 (30)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (2) (3) (5) (5) (7) (7)
Others (15) (15) (9) (25) (15) (12)
Cash Flow from Financing (56) (1) 12 (34) 4 (49)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (3) 3 40 (3) (27) 8
Opening Cash balances 7 4 6 46 43 16
Closing Cash balances 4 6 46 43 16 25
October 22, 2010 14
TIL
Quick take
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 28.3 15.8 15.3 11.5 10.4 7.4
P/CEPS 18.6 12.2 11.1 8.7 7.8 5.6
P/BV 5.4 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3
EV/Sales 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4
EV/EBITDA 13.2 9.2 8.2 6.5 6.2 4.4
EV / Total Assets 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4
EPS (fully diluted) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4
Cash EPS 36.6 55.7 61.1 78.6 87.7 121.4
DPS 3.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 9.0
Book Value 125.0 179.6 232.2 275.2 333.5 414.4
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin 5.9 6.8 7.5 9.5 8.0 8.1
Tax retention ratio 65.7 65.6 68.5 65.2 66.0 66.0
Asset turnover (x) 3.5 4.5 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.8
ROIC (Post-tax) 13.8 20.0 18.7 20.1 18.2 20.2
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 8.3 12.5 15.5 9.4 7.9 6.6
Leverage (x) 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Operating ROE 18.7 24.2 19.9 22.9 21.4 23.8
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 19.9 29.1 24.2 25.9 24.6 28.1
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 21.3 26.5 24.7 27.5 23.2 28.0
ROE 20.6 28.6 21.7 23.4 21.5 24.4
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 5.7 7.2 6.1 5.4 6.2 6.0
Inventory / Sales (days) 70 67 73 65 72 70
Receivables (days) 76 55 47 51 55 60
Payables (days) 73 67 58 47 60 70
Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 67 50 54 69 59 47
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2
Net debt to EBITDA 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 3.1 4.2 3.3 6.0 7.3 11.8
October 22, 2010 15
TIL
Quick take
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement TIL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
October 22, 2010 16
TIL
Quick take
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angelbroking.com
Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com
Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Anand Shah FMCG, Media anand.shah@angelbroking.com
Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angelbroking.com
Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angelbroking.com
Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angelbroking.com
Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angelbroking.com
Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angelbroking.com
Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com
Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angelbroking.com
John Perinchery Capital Goods john.perinchery@angelbroking.com
Srishti Anand IT, Telecom srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angelbroking.com
Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com
Naitik Mody Mid-cap naitiky.mody@angelbroking.com
Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angelbroking.com
V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com
Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angelbroking.com
Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com
Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angelbroking.com
Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com
Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angelbroking.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com
Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angelbroking.com
Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com
Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angelbroking.com
Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angelbroking.com
Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angelbroking.com
Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angelbroking.com
Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angelbroking.com
Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angelbroking.com
Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com
Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com
Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angelbroking.com
Simran Kaur Research Editor simran.kaur@angelbroking.com
Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angelbroking.com
Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com
Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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Til quick take-221010

  • 1. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 TIL, one of the oldest construction equipment (CE) suppliers in India, caters to requirements of the core sectors of the economy such as power, steel and infra. With the economy on recovery path and likely strong capex on the infrastructure and industrial fronts, we expect demand for CE to increase and volume to register a CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13 v/s 13% during CY2005-09. We believe that TIL is well placed to capitalise on the burgeoning infra and industrial capex. Overall, we estimate the company to register a CAGR of 31% in revenues and of 24% in profit over FY2010-12. At `681, the stock is trading at inexpensive valuations of 7.4x FY2012E earnings. We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and Target price of `823. Rising infra spend and private capex to boost demand for CE: The demand for CE is driven by infrastructure spend and private capex. Total infrastructure and industrial capex is expected to register a CAGR of 13% over FY2010-12 increasing from `532,000cr in FY2010 to `684,400cr in FY2012. CE volume is expected to log a CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13, as against 13% registered over CY2005-09. Consequently, total demand for CE is expected to increase from 35,000 units at the end of CY2009 to 68,000 units by CY2013. In sweet spot: TIL has rich experience of over 66 years in supplying construction equipment to the core sectors. TIL’s strong product alliance-based portfolio places it sweet spot to capitalise on the vast upcoming opportunities. Overall, we expect TIL to register a CAGR of 31% and 24% over FY2010-12 in revenues and profit, respectively. Attractive valuation: On the valuation front, at current levels, TIL trades at 7.4x FY2012E earnings, which is at a discount to peers like Bharat Earth Movers (BEML) and Action Construction Equipment (ACE) that are trading at 12.4x and 9.9x FY2012E earnings, respectively. Moreover, we believe that the discount in valuation that the stock fetches due to the perceived risk of termination or discontinuance of CAT dealership is unwarranted. Also on comparing valuations of companies operating on franchisee business model, we believe TIL’s valuations are undemanding. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,037 1,055 1,394 1,816 % chg (1.9) 1.7 32.2 30.3 Net Profit 45 60 66 92 % chg 3.8 33.1 10.2 39.8 EBITDA (%) 9.1 11.4 9.7 9.9 EPS (`) 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4 P/E (x) 15.3 11.5 10.4 7.4 P/BV (x) 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.6 RoE (%) 21.7 23.4 21.5 24.4 RoCE (%) 24.2 25.9 24.6 28.1 EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 6.5 6.2 4.4 Source: Company, Angel Research BUY CMP `681 Target Price `823 Investment Period 12 months Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 50.7 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.1 FII / NRIs / OCBs 3.6 Indian Public / Others 25.6 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 11 20 14 TIL 29 117 128 Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code 683 0.6 689/243 19627 Capital Goods Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low 10 20,165 6,066 TILL.BO TIL@IN Sageraj Bariya 22-40403800 Extn: 346 sageraj.bariya@angelbroking.com TIL ‘Til’l long term   Quick take
  • 2. October 22, 2010 2 TIL Quick take Investment Arguments Rising infra spend, private capex to boost demand for CE The demand for CE is driven by infrastructure spend and private capex. We expect the CE sector to achieve strong leg up with the Government of India (GoI) having chalked out substantial outlay for the infrastructure sector in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. As per industry reports, total infra spend and industrial capex is expected to register a CAGR of 13% over FY2010-12 increasing from `532,000cr in FY2010 to `684,400cr in FY2012. Exhibit 1: Capex to remain robust Source: Industry, Angel Research CE volume is expected to register a CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13 v/s 13% registered over CY2005-09. Consequently, total demand for construction equipment is expected to increase from 35,000 units at the end of CY2009 to 68,000 units by CY2013. Overall, we expect opportunity for the CE manufacturers to remain robust. Exhibit 2: Construction Equipment – Increasing Industry demand Source: Off-Highway Research, Angel Research 31 24 14 12 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E (%) (`cr) Industrial Capex Infra Capex % YoY 22 31 49 43 35 46 52 61 68 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E ('000Units) CAGR - 13% Total infra spend and private capex is expected to increase from `532,000cr in FY2010 to `684,400cr in FY2012 CE volume is expected to increase at a CAGR of 18% over CY2009-13 v/s 13% CAGR logged over CY2005-09
  • 3. October 22, 2010 3 TIL Quick take In sweet spot TIL has rich experience of over 66 years of supplying CE to the core sectors of the economy. TIL’s strong product alliance-based portfolio places it in an advantageous position to capitalise on the vast upcoming opportunities. Exhibit 3: Revenue mix – FY2010 Source: Company, Angel Research Note – CMS & PSS comprises of CAT dealership business Exhibit 4: EBIT mix – FY2010 Source: Company, Angel Research MHE division: Ports and road segments to drive growth In the MHE segment, the company has a strong product portfolio developed over a period of time through tie-ups with the best in industry. The segment primarily comprises Pick-n-Carry (PnC) cranes and truck mounted cranes and others. TIL is a leader in truck mounted cranes with a market share of approximately 60-70%. TIL’s products find application in road development, port infrastructure and other ancillary industries. As per the Eleventh Five-year Plan, total demand for CE arising from road and port sector is valued at `115,800cr. Exhibit 5: Tie-ups in MHE segment Product Company Mobile telescoping cranes Grove Worldwide, USA Lattice-boom crawler cranes Manitowoc Crane Group, USA Container handling cranes Paceco Corp, USA Port cranes FAMAK - SA, Poland Lift trucks & warehousing equipment Hyster Hot mix asphalt equipment Astec Inc Source: Company, Angel Research Total investment of `401,488cr is expected to flow into the road sector during the Plan period in turn resulting in demand for CE worth around `84,313-92,342cr. Port infrastructure comprising cargo handling, container, bulk and liquid handling systems are also expected to witness robust investment going ahead. Given that private sector participation in ports is high, we expect investments would continue. The port sector is expected to attract total investment of `105,000cr during the Plan period generating demand for CE in the region of `31,500-36,750cr. TIL plans to expand capacity by setting up a new manufacturing facility in Kharagpur, West Bengal at a total planned capex of `300cr over three phases. We believe that given TIL’s comfortable debt:equity position of 0.4x at the end of MHE 16% CMS 61% PSS 23% MHE 28% CMS 51% PSS 21% TIL is a market leader in truck mounted cranes with market share of ~ 60-70% The MHE division is expected to register a CAGR of 34.9% over FY2010-12E as against 1.4% recorded over FY2008-10
  • 4. October 22, 2010 4 TIL Quick take FY2010, it would be easy for company to fund its capex with help of internal accrual and debt. Under Phase-1 in FY2011 TIL would incur capex of `120cr and expects to generate revenues of `200-250cr in the first year of operation. On completion of full capex, we expect the new facility to contribute approximately `1,000cr at peak utilisation level. Overall, we expect the MHE division to register a CAGR of 34.9% over FY2010-12 as against 1.4% recorded over FY2008-10. CMS division: Power, metal and coal sectors to aid growth TIL is the exclusive dealer for global leader, Caterpillar’s products primarily in north and east India including West Bengal, all the north-eastern states, Orissa, Jharkhand, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, J&K, Rajasthan, NCR region, and Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar. We believe that TIL is in sweet spot and is likely to benefit over long term given that East India has approximately 40% of the country’s iron ore reserves and 45% of coal reserves, and beefed up by CAT’s global brand and leadership position in the CMS market. Recently, TIL spun off its CAT dealership business (CMS and PSS divisions) into a 100% subsidiary in its bid increase focus on the same. Under this division, TIL supplies a comprehensive range of Caterpillar construction and mining equipment as well as engines and gen sets. The government's focus on the power sector through "Power for all by 2012" is expected to be achieved via the Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme (APDRP), Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) and rising trend of captive power plants. We believe that higher investments in the power sector would drive capex plans of the mining industry, which would in turn be primarily led by the coal industry. Hence, we expect Coal India as well as captive coal mining to increasingly source equipment. As per the Eleventh Five-year Plan, total demand for construction equipment arising from the power and related sectors is likely to be in region of `161,950cr. Overall, we expect TIL’s CMS division to grow at average rate of 30% over FY2010-12 as against de-growth of 5% over FY2008-10. PSS division: Availability of gas to boost growth Caterpillar is the world's largest manufacturer of medium speed engines, as well as one of the world's largest manufacturers of high speed diesel engines, with ratings available from 54 to 13,600hp (40 to 10,000kW). The core focus products are the diesel generators ranging from 200 to 3500 KVA and gas generators from 1,000 to 3,500KVA. Current PSS market primarily comprises diesel engines where Cummins is a leader with +50% market share, while TIL is at around 15%. Going ahead, due to availability of gas we believe that there would be a shift and expect TIL to benefit given its leadership position in market with share of 40%. The Indian genset market is valued at `5,000cr and is expected to register a CAGR of 15% till 2012 (Source: Frost & Sullivan). In case of TIL, its rich experience and TIL has been the sole dealer of Caterpillar products in East and North India for more than past 66 years The CMS division is expected to grow at 30% over FY2010-12 as against de-growth of 5% recorded over FY2008-10 The PSS division is expected to register 23.5% CAGR over FY2010-12, as against 12.3% logged during FY2008-10
  • 5. October 22, 2010 5 TIL Quick take strong product portfolio provides it an edge over peers who either lack strong product backing (unlike TIL’s CAT) or have limited experience. Overall, we expect TIL’s PSS division to register 23.5% CAGR over FY2010-12, as against 12.3% during FY2008-10. Hidden gems Spare parts and maintenance business: Apart from pure product sale, TIL also earns revenue through customer support agreements (CSA) and, maintenance and repair contract (MARC) and supply of spare parts for products under CMS and PSS. This business fetches high margins compared to the other main products. Rental and used equipment business: TIL also has a presence in the rental equipment business, which has immense potential. The rental business contributes 2-3% of revenues per annum. As per ICRA, the market for used equipment is three times the primary market. In case of rental equipment business, penetration is estimated to be in region of 7-8% as against the global average of 50-80% (EU – 30%, UK – 60%). We expect the rental market to grow with the user industries increasingly preferring to minimise investments and register higher utilisation of assets on account of renting the construction equipment. The key equipment rented out in this segment include, backhoe loaders, pick-and- carry (PNC) cranes, excavators, motor graders and vibratory compactors. Currently, there are few organised players in the fray apart from TIL like Quippo Infrastructure Equipment, Sanghvi Movers (for cranes), ABG Infralogistics and GMMCO. We believe this segment has strong growth potential going ahead as the economy revives and capex picks up. Penetration of the equipment rental business is estimated to be in the region of 7-8% as against the global average of 50-80%
  • 6. October 22, 2010 6 TIL Quick take Financials Sales to revive from hereon During FY2008-10, TIL’s sales remained largely flat at `1,055cr on account of the slowdown witnessed in the economy, which resulted in major industrial capex getting postponed. However, going ahead, on the back of recovering economy, rising infrastructure spend and prevailing high capacity utilisation, industrial capex is expected to pick up. Overall, TIL’s revenues are expected to improve and register healthy CAGR of 31% over FY2010-12. Exhibit 6: Segment-wise Gross revenue break-up Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 7: Revenue trend Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Total Revenue includes other operating income In FY2010 TIL posted one of best EBITDA margins at 11.4% on the back of cost cutting measures, strong execution and cooling of commodity prices. We however, expect EBITDA margin to normalise and revert to the long-term average of 10% in FY2011. In FY2012, post commissioning of the new high-margin MHE plant, we expect margins to sustain at these levels. Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin trend Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 9: Segmental EBITDA margin trend Source: Company, Angel Research In FY2011, with margins normalising, PAT is expected to record muted growth of 10% for the year. However, in FY2012 due to almost steady margins, PAT is expected to rebound and record 40% yoy growth. 165 187 170 221 309 708 658 646 840 1,092 196 206 247 301 377 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E (`cr) MHE CMS PSS 1,069 1,050 1,063 1,362 1,778 1,058 1,037 1,055 1,394 1,816 (10) 0 10 20 30 40 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E (%YoY) (`cr) Net Sales % YoY 9.8 8.9 7.6 8.1 9.1 11.4 9.7 9.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E (%) 17 20 24 17 18 8 10 12 8 8 9 14 13 9 9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E (%) MHE CMS PSS
  • 7. October 22, 2010 7 TIL Quick take Exhibit 10: PAT trend Source: Company, Angel Research Healthy return ratios to persist On the back of strong top-line growth and improving EBITDA margins TIL has been posting healthy return ratios. The company’s RoCE and RoE improved from 15% and 14% in FY2006 to 26% and 23% in FY2010, respectively. In FY2011 however, we estimate the company’s RoCE and RoE to drop 25% and 21% respectively, owing to the decline in EBITDA margin. In FY2012 however, return ratios would recover and post 28% and 24%, respectively. Exhibit 11: Healthy profitability Source: Company, Angel Research 43 45 60 66 92 (15) 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E (%) (`cr) Adj PAT % YoY 15 20 29 24 26 25 28 14 21 29 22 23 21 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E (%) RoCE RoE
  • 8. October 22, 2010 8 TIL Quick take Exhibit 12: DuPont Analysis FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E EBITDA / Sales (%) 9.1 11.4 9.7 9.9 Sales / Total Asset (x) 3.3 2.8 3.2 3.6 PBT / EBITDA (x) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 PAT / PBT (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total Asset / Networth (x) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 RoE (%) 21.7 23.4 21.5 24.4 Source: Company, Angel Research Concerns Cancellation of CAT’s dealership – TIL’s dealership agreement with CAT has no time-line specified. Hence, there exist possibilities of CAT canceling the dealership with minimum notice period. However, we believe there are minimal chances of this eventuality as globally CAT operates on a dealership model and till date it has cancelled only 2-3 dealerships of the total 193 dealerships in operation. Moreover, TIL has developed The CAT dealership (since 1944) and currently has strong network and support centre. Threat of low-cost imports from countries like China: The Chinese’s domestic market for CE is estimated to be 6x that of India’s size. Hence, the Chinese market has many home-grown players with huge capacity coupled with strong cost advantage. Many of these players have also entered India and have been increasing their share. However, we believe that the threat from Chinese players is short term in nature given lack spare parts and warranty support as well as poor resale value for the products. Economic risks: The company is exposed to broader economic risks including contraction in private capex activity and increase in competition. Volatility in basic commodity prices- Any abnormal up-move in the basic metal prices could adversely impact the company’s operating margins. Forex fluctuations: Around 30% of TIL's cost of material are denominated in currencies other than the rupee. Hence, any volatility in the exchange rate could impact the company's profit.
  • 9. October 22, 2010 9 TIL Quick take Outlook and Valuation We believe that an improving economic scenario, continued government focus on infrastructure spend and pick up in private capex augurs well for companies supplying CE to the core sectors of the economy. We expect TIL’s CMS and PSS division to revert to high growth path, while the MHE division would continue to post healthy growth with the new plant coming on stream by April 2011. Overall, we estimate TIL to register a CAGR of 31% and 24% in net sales and PAT over FY2010-12, respectively. On the valuation front, at `681 TIL is trading at 7.4x FY2012E earnings, which is at a discount to peers like BEML and Action Construction Equipment (ACE) that are trading at 12.4x and 9.9x FY2012E earnings, respectively. The discount in valuation that the stock fetches is due to the perceived risk of termination or discontinuance of the CAT dealership, which we believe is unwarranted. This is because there are minimal chances of this eventuality as globally CAT operates on a dealership model and till date has cancelled only 2-3 dealerships. Moreover, TIL since 1944 when it entered into the CAT dealership has developed a strong network and support centre. Exhibit 13: Peer Valuations CMP Mkt Cap Sales ` cr CAGR -FY10-12 (%) RoIC (%)* P/E (x) P/B (x) Company ` ` cr FY11E FY12E Sales PAT FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E ACE 65 586 611 826 39 67 22.7 28.0 15.5 9.9 2.8 2.1 BEML 1,144 4,764 3,400 4,105 20 20 7.2 7.4 14.8 12.4 1.9 1.7 Average 15.0 17.7 15.2 11.2 2.3 1.9 TIL 681 683 1,394 1,816 31 24 23.2 28.0 10.4 7.4 2.0 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research. *Note – Angel RoIC Given that the CAT dealership contributes bulk of revenue and profit, one can view TIL’s business as a franchisee operations. On comparing valuation of companies operating on similar business model (franchisee), we believe TIL’s valuations are undemanding. Exhibit 14: Valuations – Key Franchisee Business CMP Mkt Cap Sales ` cr CAGR -FY10-12 (%) RoIC (%)* P/E (x) P/B (x) Company ` ` cr FY11E FY12E Sales PAT FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 Redington 83 3,288 16,574 19,452 19 13 17.0 21.0 14.1 11.2 2.5 2.1 Jubliant FoodWorks 507 3,262 594 800 37 53 55.0 71.0 50.2 41.9 18.9 13.8 Page Industries 1,235 1,473 456 608 34 27 41.8 43.9 28.0 21.3 12.1 10.1 HCL Infosystem 119 2,588 12,608 14,035 8 22 21.0 25.9 9.2 7.3 1.3 1.2 Average 33.7 40.4 25.4 20.4 8.7 6.8 TIL 681 683 1,394 1,816 31 24 23.2 28.0 10.4 7.4 2.0 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research. *Note – Angel RoIC We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and Target Price of `823, at which level it would trade at 9x FY2012E earnings.
  • 10. October 22, 2010 10 TIL Quick take Exhibit 15: One-year forward P/E Source: C-line, Angel Research Exhibit 16: One-year forward EV/EBITDA Source: C-line, Angel Research - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 (`) Price 3x 6x 9x 12x 15x - 150 300 450 600 750 900 1,050 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 (EV`cr) EV 3x 4x 5x 6x 7x
  • 11. October 22, 2010 11 TIL Quick take Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Gross sales 766.4 1,055.3 1,024.3 1,021.3 1,362.5 1,778.3 Less: Excise duty 19.1 25.8 23.1 13.8 27.2 35.6 Net Sales 747.4 1,029.5 1,001.2 1,007.4 1,335.2 1,742.7 Other operating income 20.3 28.4 36.2 47.1 58.9 73.7 Total operating income 767.7 1,057.9 1,037.4 1,054.6 1,394.2 1,816.4 % chg 40.2 37.8 (1.9) 1.7 32.2 30.3 Total Expenditure 711.0 974.9 945.8 939.3 1,264.8 1,644.4 Net Raw Materials 615.0 855.9 795.5 784.9 1,061.0 1,378.6 Other Mfg costs 48.0 57.7 69.6 54.0 69.7 90.8 Personnel 37.2 48.4 66.7 87.4 120.2 156.8 Other 10.9 12.9 13.9 13.1 13.9 18.2 EBITDA 56.7 83.0 91.6 115.2 129.4 171.9 % chg 21.6 46.4 10.4 25.8 12.3 32.9 (% of Net Sales) 7.6 8.1 9.1 11.4 9.7 9.9 Depreciation& Amortisation 12.2 12.8 16.6 19.4 22.3 30.1 EBIT 44.5 70.2 75.0 95.9 107.0 141.8 % chg 33.7 58.0 6.8 27.8 11.7 32.5 (% of Net Sales) 5.9 6.8 7.5 9.5 8.0 8.1 Interest & other Charges 13.4 16.8 22.8 16.0 14.7 12.0 Other Income 4.5 12.3 13.0 11.5 7.0 9.1 (% of PBT) 12.5 18.7 19.9 12.6 7.0 6.5 Recurring PBT 35.5 65.7 65.3 91.4 99.4 138.9 % chg 68.9 85.1 (0.6) 39.9 8.8 39.8 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - - PBT (reported) 35.5 65.7 65.3 91.4 99.4 138.9 Tax 12.2 22.6 20.6 31.8 33.8 47.2 (% of PBT) 34.3 34.4 31.5 34.8 34.0 34.0 PAT (reported) 23.3 43.1 44.7 59.5 65.6 91.7 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - - Prior period items - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 23.3 43.1 44.7 59.5 65.6 91.7 ADJ. PAT 23.4 43.1 44.7 59.5 65.6 91.7 % chg 68.9 84.0 3.8 33.1 10.2 39.8 (% of Net Sales) 3.1 4.2 4.5 5.9 4.9 5.3 Basic EPS (`) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4 Fully Diluted EPS (`) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4 % chg 68.9 78.5 3.8 33.1 10.2 39.8
  • 12. October 22, 2010 12 TIL Quick take Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 112 170 223 266 325 406 Shareholders Funds 122 180 233 276 335 416 Minority Interest - - - - - - Total Loans 89 88 113 109 135 105 Deferred Tax Liability 2 3 3 6 8 11 Total Liabilities 212 271 349 391 477 531 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 134 160 182 211 236 366 Less: Acc. Depreciation 59 68 81 95 118 148 Net Block 76 91 100 116 118 218 Capital Work-in-Progress 1 11 19 20 130 26 Goodwill / Intangibles - - - - - - Investments - - - - - - Current Assets 379 457 436 518 543 712 Cash 4 6 46 43 16 25 Loans & Advances 37 55 66 96 73 80 Other 338 396 324 379 453 607 Current liabilities 243 288 206 262 314 425 Net Current Assets 136 169 230 256 229 287 Others - - - - - - Total Assets 212 271 349 391 477 531
  • 13. October 22, 2010 13 TIL Quick take Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Profit before tax 35 66 65 91 99 139 Depreciation 24 25 39 32 37 42 Change in Working Capital 10 (37) (24) (28) 2 (50) Less: Other income - - - - - - Direct taxes paid (13) (21) (19) (31) (34) (47) Cash Flow from Operations 56 33 61 64 105 84 (Inc)./ Dec. in Fixed Assets (5) (31) (36) (34) (135) (26) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 1 2 3 1 - - Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances - - - - - - Other income - - - - - - Cash Flow from Investing (4) (29) (33) (33) (135) (26) Issue of Equity (2) 19 - - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans (35) (1) 26 (4) 26 (30) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (2) (3) (5) (5) (7) (7) Others (15) (15) (9) (25) (15) (12) Cash Flow from Financing (56) (1) 12 (34) 4 (49) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (3) 3 40 (3) (27) 8 Opening Cash balances 7 4 6 46 43 16 Closing Cash balances 4 6 46 43 16 25
  • 14. October 22, 2010 14 TIL Quick take Key Ratios Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 28.3 15.8 15.3 11.5 10.4 7.4 P/CEPS 18.6 12.2 11.1 8.7 7.8 5.6 P/BV 5.4 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 EV/Sales 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 EV/EBITDA 13.2 9.2 8.2 6.5 6.2 4.4 EV / Total Assets 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4 EPS (fully diluted) 24.1 43.0 44.6 59.3 65.4 91.4 Cash EPS 36.6 55.7 61.1 78.6 87.7 121.4 DPS 3.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 9.0 Book Value 125.0 179.6 232.2 275.2 333.5 414.4 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 5.9 6.8 7.5 9.5 8.0 8.1 Tax retention ratio 65.7 65.6 68.5 65.2 66.0 66.0 Asset turnover (x) 3.5 4.5 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.8 ROIC (Post-tax) 13.8 20.0 18.7 20.1 18.2 20.2 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 8.3 12.5 15.5 9.4 7.9 6.6 Leverage (x) 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Operating ROE 18.7 24.2 19.9 22.9 21.4 23.8 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 19.9 29.1 24.2 25.9 24.6 28.1 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 21.3 26.5 24.7 27.5 23.2 28.0 ROE 20.6 28.6 21.7 23.4 21.5 24.4 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 5.7 7.2 6.1 5.4 6.2 6.0 Inventory / Sales (days) 70 67 73 65 72 70 Receivables (days) 76 55 47 51 55 60 Payables (days) 73 67 58 47 60 70 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 67 50 54 69 59 47 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 Net debt to EBITDA 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 3.1 4.2 3.3 6.0 7.3 11.8
  • 15. October 22, 2010 15 TIL Quick take Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement TIL 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
  • 16. October 22, 2010 16 TIL Quick take Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angelbroking.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com Anand Shah FMCG, Media anand.shah@angelbroking.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angelbroking.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angelbroking.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angelbroking.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angelbroking.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angelbroking.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angelbroking.com John Perinchery Capital Goods john.perinchery@angelbroking.com Srishti Anand IT, Telecom srishti.anand@angelbroking.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angelbroking.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com Naitik Mody Mid-cap naitiky.mody@angelbroking.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angelbroking.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angelbroking.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angelbroking.com Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) nitin.arora@angelbroking.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angelbroking.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angelbroking.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angelbroking.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angelbroking.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angelbroking.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angelbroking.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angelbroking.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angelbroking.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angelbroking.com Simran Kaur Research Editor simran.kaur@angelbroking.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angelbroking.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302