- The document compares municipal market data and U.S. Treasury rates from August 2018 to February 2019, showing decreases in most rates over that period. It also provides current municipal market data by credit rating and maturity. Rates continue to be lower than their historical averages. [/SUMMARY]
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Municipal Market Data & Treasury Rates Comparison
1. 1
Municipal Market Data & U.S. Treasury Data (6 Month Comparison)
U.S. TREASURY RATES
Aug 10, 2018 Feb 08, 2019 Change
10 Year U.S. Treasury 2.87% 2.64% -23 bp
30 Year U.S. Treasury 3.03% 2.98% -5 bp
MMD RATES
Aug 10, 2018 Feb 08, 2019 Change
10 Year "AAA" MMD 2.45% 2.12% -33 bp
30 Year "AAA" MMD 3.04% 2.97% -7 bp
30 Year "BBB" MMD 3.85% 3.83% -2 bp
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of February 08, 2019
Equities moved up to start the week before trade and global growth concerns emerged again putting a halt to the rally. The
DJIA hit 25,411 on Tuesday before closing the week at 25,106, up 43 points.
Treasuries rallied last week as growth concerns persist both domestically and abroad. The 10 YR Treasury closed at 2.64%,
down 5 basis points in yield on the week and down 12 basis points over the past two weeks.
One‐month LIBOR was down one basis point resetting at 2.50% on Friday. The SIFMA Index continued to increase last week
rising by 8 basis points last week (and 22 basis points over the past two weeks) resetting at 1.51%, which was 60% of
one‐month LIBOR.
Headlines
2. 2
Current Municipal Market Data
Maturity "AAA" "AA" "A" "BBB"
5-year 1.70% 1.76% 2.11% 2.46%
10-year 2.12% 2.28% 2.60% 2.97%
20-year 2.81% 3.02% 3.31% 3.67%
30-year 2.97% 3.18% 3.48% 3.83%
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of February 08, 2019
Historical Fixed Rate Analysis
UST Rates 'AAA' MMD Bond Buyer Indices
Data 10-Year 30-Year 10-Year % UST 30-Year % UST 20 GO 25 Rev
Spot Rate 2.64 2.98 2.12 80.4 2.97 99.6 4.23 4.70
1-Mo Prior 2.70 3.03 2.21 81.8 3.03 99.9 4.20 4.67
1-Yr Prior 2.85 3.16 2.42 84.9 2.97 94.0 3.73 4.22
5 Yr Avg 2.34 2.94 2.11 90.1 2.94 100.1 3.75 4.19
10 Yr Avg 2.51 3.33 2.30 91.7 3.41 102.1 4.01 4.59
Historical Data Since February 1999 (20 Years)
Min 1.36 2.10 1.31 96.4 1.95 92.9 2.80 2.98
Max 6.77 6.70 5.37 79.4 6.04 90.2 6.09 6.48
Avg 3.58 4.21 3.15 87.8 4.13 98.1 4.45 4.93
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of February 08, 2019
Rates continue to be lower than historical averages. To date, 30 Year ‘AAA’ MMD is 116 basis points below the 20 year
historical average.
Today’s Capital Markets
3. 3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity As of February 08, 2019
'AAA' MMD
'AA' MMD
'A' MMD
'BBB' MMD
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveCurrent MMD Yield Curve
The Current MMD yield curve continues to remain positively sloped.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates
4. 4
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity February 2018 to Present
Feb 08, 2019
Jan 11, 2019
Aug 10, 2018
Feb 09, 2018
Historical 'AAA' MMD Yield Curve
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates
Since February 9, 2018, 30 Year ‘AAA’ MMD rates have remained the same at 2.970%.
5. 5
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
UST 2 Yr
UST 5 Yr
UST 10 Yr
UST 30 Yr
20 Year Historical U.S. Treasury Data
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates
6. 6
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
10 Yr 'AAA' MMD
10 Yr 'AAA' MMD Avg
10 Yr UST
10 Yr UST Avg
10 Yr UST to MMD %
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Historical 'AAA' MMD & U.S. Treasury Data
10 Year U.S. Treasuries and 10 Year ‘AAA’ MMD remain highly correlated at 97%.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates
7. 7
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
June 1986 to Present
BB 25 Rev Bond Index
Average (5.62%)
Current (4.70%)
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveHistorical Bond Buyer 25 Revenue Bond Index
The Bond Buyer 25 Revenue Bond Index is currently at 4.70% compared to the average of 5.62%.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates
8. 8
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 2009 to Present
SIFMA Swap 30 Yr
SIFMA Swap 20 Yr
SIFMA Swap 10 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 30 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 20 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 10 Yr
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve10 Year Hist Swap Rates: 10, 20, 30 Yr SIFMA & 67% of 1M LIBOR
The 30 Year SIFMA swap rate decreased 5 basis points, while the 30 Year 67% of 1M LIBOR swap rate decreased 3 basis
points from the prior week.
Long Term Swap Rates
9. 9
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
SIFMA Index
67% of 1M LIBOR
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Variable Rate History: 67% of 1M LIBOR & SIFMA Data
The SIFMA Index reset at 1.51, up 8 basis points from the prior week.
Short Term Variable Interest Rates
10. 10
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity As of February 08, 2019
BBB
SIFMA Swap Rate
67% of 1M LIBOR Swap Rate
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveCurrent Market 'BBB' MMD Yield Curve & Swap Rates
Current 30 Year 67% of 1M LIBOR swap rates and 30 Year SIFMA swap rates are showing much lower rates than Current
‘BBB’ rates in the market.
Current ‘BBB’ MMD & Variable Interest Rates
11. 11
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
SIFMA Index
1M LIBOR
BB 25 Rev Index
UST 10 Yr
20 Year Historical Benchmark Rates
The following data shows the divergence between current variable and fixed rate indices.
Historical Benchmark Rates
12. 12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Spread
(bps)%
February 1999 to Present
30 Yr 'BBB' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'A' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'AA' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'AAA' MMD
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Historical 'AAA' MMD Tax -Exempt Credit Spread Data
Current Tax Exempt Credit Spreads are 21, 51, and 86, basis points for ‘AA’, ‘A’, and ‘BBB’ respectively
‘AAA’ MMD Tax-Exempt Credit Spreads
13. 13
($4,000)
($2,000)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
February 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Municipal Bond Fund Flow Changes
Municipal Bond Funds increased by $1.53 Billion from the prior week
Municipal Bond Fund Flow Changes
14. 14
Money Market Fund Flow Changes
Money Market Funds
increased $20.51
Billion from the prior
week.
Tax Exempt Money
Market Funds
decreased by $250
Million from the prior
week.
$(70,000)
$(50,000)
$(30,000)
$(10,000)
$10,000
$30,000
$50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
February 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Money Market Fund Flow Changes
$(10,000)
$(5,000)
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
February 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund Flow Changes
15. 15
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Oct 2015 Apr 2016 Oct 2016 Apr 2017 Oct 2017 Apr 2018 Oct 2018
$ Millions
October 2015 to Present
Historical Tax-Exempt Bond Issuance
Tax Exempt Bond Issuance increased $8.46 Billion from the prior week.
Tax Exempt Bond Issuance
16. 16
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