Indiana Public Finance Weekly Review - Market Data & Analysis (05-13-19)

1. 1
Municipal Market Data & U.S. Treasury Data (6 Month Comparison)
U.S. TREASURY RATES
Nov 09, 2018 May 10, 2019 Change
10 Year U.S. Treasury 3.18% 2.47% -71 bp
30 Year U.S. Treasury 3.39% 2.89% -50 bp
MMD RATES
Nov 09, 2018 May 10, 2019 Change
10 Year "AAA" MMD 2.72% 1.75% -97 bp
30 Year "AAA" MMD 3.41% 2.43% -98 bp
30 Year "BBB" MMD 4.27% 3.16% -111 bp
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of May 10, 2019
 Last week was all about trade as Tweets and rumors of both positive and negative developments moved stocks. The DJIA
closed at 25,942, down 562 points.
 The prospects of an escalating trade war with China and a breakdown with the Iran nuclear deal were catalysts for a Treasury
rally. The 10 YR Treasury ended the week at 2.47%, down 6 basis points in yield.
 The SIFMA index rebounded after a late tax season spike. The index reset down 53 basis points to 1.59% which was 65% of
one‐month LIBOR.
Headlines

2. 2
Current Municipal Market Data
Maturity "AAA" "AA" "A" "BBB"
5-year 1.56% 1.62% 1.88% 2.20%
10-year 1.75% 1.87% 2.11% 2.45%
20-year 2.27% 2.47% 2.70% 3.00%
30-year 2.43% 2.63% 2.86% 3.16%
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of May 10, 2019
Historical Fixed Rate Analysis
UST Rates 'AAA' MMD Bond Buyer Indices
Data 10-Year 30-Year 10-Year % UST 30-Year % UST 20 GO 25 Rev
Spot Rate 2.47 2.89 1.75 70.9 2.43 84.1 3.63 4.11
1-Mo Prior 2.57 2.98 1.93 75.2 2.68 90.0 3.85 4.32
1-Yr Prior 2.97 3.11 2.44 82.1 2.95 95.0 3.88 4.37
5 Yr Avg 2.34 2.91 2.09 89.3 2.89 99.5 3.73 4.15
10 Yr Avg 2.50 3.32 2.27 90.9 3.36 101.2 3.99 4.55
Historical Data Since May 1999 (20 Years)
Min 1.36 2.10 1.31 96.4 1.95 92.9 2.80 2.98
Max 6.77 6.70 5.37 79.4 6.04 90.2 6.09 6.48
Avg 3.55 4.18 3.12 87.8 4.10 98.2 4.43 4.91
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of May 10, 2019
 Rates continue to be lower than historical averages. To date, 30 Year ‘AAA’ MMD is 167 basis points below the 20 year
historical average.
Historical Fixed Rate Analysis
UST Rates 'AAA' MMD Bond Buyer Indices
Data 10-Year 30-Year 10-Year % UST 30-Year % UST 20 GO 25 Rev
Spot Rate 2.53 2.92 1.84 72.8 2.52 86.3 3.73 4.21
1-Mo Prior 2.50 2.90 1.93 77.3 2.70 93.0 3.88 4.35
1-Yr Prior 2.95 3.12 2.43 82.3 2.97 95.1 3.89 4.38
5 Yr Avg 2.34 2.91 2.09 89.4 2.90 99.6 3.73 4.15
10 Yr Avg 2.50 3.32 2.27 90.9 3.36 101.3 3.99 4.56
Historical Data Since May 1999 (20 Years)
Min 1.36 2.10 1.31 96.4 1.95 92.9 2.80 2.98
Max 6.77 6.70 5.37 79.4 6.04 90.2 6.09 6.48
Avg 3.55 4.18 3.12 87.8 4.11 98.2 4.43 4.92
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of May 03, 2019
Today’s Capital Markets

3. 3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity As of May 10, 2019
'AAA' MMD
'AA' MMD
'A' MMD
'BBB' MMD
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveCurrent MMD Yield Curve
 The Current MMD yield curve continues to remain positively sloped.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

4. 4
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity May 2018 to Present
May 10, 2019
Apr 12, 2019
Nov 09, 2018
May 11, 2018
Historical 'AAA' MMD Yield Curve
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates
 Since May 11, 2018, 30 Year ‘AAA’ MMD rates have decreased 52 basis points.

5. 5
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
May 1999 to Present
UST 2 Yr
UST 5 Yr
UST 10 Yr
UST 30 Yr
20 Year Historical U.S. Treasury Data
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

6. 6
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
May 1999 to Present
10 Yr 'AAA' MMD
10 Yr 'AAA' MMD Avg
10 Yr UST
10 Yr UST Avg
10 Yr UST to MMD %
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Historical 'AAA' MMD & U.S. Treasury Data
 10 Year U.S. Treasuries and 10 Year ‘AAA’ MMD remain highly correlated at 97%.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

7. 7
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
September 1986 to Present
BB 25 Rev Bond Index
Average (5.60%)
Current (4.11%)
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveHistorical Bond Buyer 25 Revenue Bond Index
 The Bond Buyer 25 Revenue Bond Index is currently at 4.11% compared to the average of 5.60%.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

8. 8
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
May 2009 to Present
SIFMA Swap 30 Yr
SIFMA Swap 20 Yr
SIFMA Swap 10 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 30 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 20 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 10 Yr
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve10 Year Hist Swap Rates: 10, 20, 30 Yr SIFMA & 67% of 1M LIBOR
 The 30 Year SIFMA swap rate decreased 5 basis points, while the 30 Year 67% of 1M LIBOR swap rate decreased 3 basis
points from the prior week.
Long Term Swap Rates

9. 9
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
May 1999 to Present
SIFMA Index
67% of 1M LIBOR
SIFMA Index
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Variable Rate History: 67% of 1M LIBOR & SIFMA DataCurrent Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Variable Rate History: 67% of 1M LIBOR & SIFMA Data
 The SIFMA Index set at 1.59, down 53 basis points from the prior week.
Short Term Variable Interest Rates

10. 10
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity As of May 10, 2019
BBB
SIFMA Swap Rate
67% of 1M LIBOR Swap Rate
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveCurrent Market 'BBB' MMD Yield Curve & Swap Rates
 Current 30 Year 67% of 1M LIBOR swap rates and 30 Year SIFMA swap rates are showing much lower rates than Current
‘BBB’ rates in the market.
Current ‘BBB’ MMD & Variable Interest Rates

11. 11
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
May 1999 to Present
SIFMA Index
1M LIBOR
BB 25 Rev Index
UST 10 Yr
20 Year Historical Benchmark Rates
 The following data shows the divergence between current variable and fixed rate indices.
Historical Benchmark Rates

12. 12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Spread
(bps)%
May 1999 to Present
30 Yr 'BBB' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'A' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'AA' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'AAA' MMD
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Historical 'AAA' MMD Tax -Exempt Credit Spread Data
 Current Tax Exempt Credit Spreads are 20, 43, and 73, basis points for ‘AA’, ‘A’, and ‘BBB’ respectively
‘AAA’ MMD Tax-Exempt Credit Spreads

13. 13
($4,000)
($2,000)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
May 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Municipal Bond Fund Flow Changes
 Municipal Bond Funds increased by $1.26 Billion from the prior week
Municipal Bond Fund Flow Changes

14. 14
$(70,000)
$(50,000)
$(30,000)
$(10,000)
$10,000
$30,000
$50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
May 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Money Market Fund Flow Changes
Money Market Fund Flow Changes
Tax Exempt Money
Market Funds
increased $1.87
Billion from the prior
week.
Money Market Funds
increased $21.99
Billion from the prior
week.
$(10,000)
$(5,000)
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
May 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund Flow Changes

15. 15
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Jan 2019
$ Millions
January 2016 to Present
Historical Tax-Exempt Bond Issuance
 Tax Exempt Bond Issuance increased by $6.89 Billion from the prior week.
Tax Exempt Bond Issuance

16. 16
George K. Baum & Company does not endorse, guaranty or approve, and assumes no responsibility for, the content, accuracy,
reliability, or completeness of the information contained in the following presentation. The information in the following presentation
was compiled from sources believed to be reliable for informational purposes only. Presentations are intended for educational
purposes only and do not replace independent, professional judgment. You should not take, or refrain from taking action based on
its content. The opinions expressed by each presenter are theirs alone and may not necessarily represent those of employers,
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advice and accordingly, you should consult with your own attorneys regarding the application or impact of any of the information for
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