Indiana Public Finance Weekly Review - Market Data & Analysis (02-19-2019)

1. 1
Municipal Market Data & U.S. Treasury Data (6 Month Comparison)
U.S. TREASURY RATES
Aug 17, 2018 Feb 15, 2019 Change
10 Year U.S. Treasury 2.86% 2.66% -19 bp
30 Year U.S. Treasury 3.02% 2.99% -3 bp
MMD RATES
Aug 17, 2018 Feb 15, 2019 Change
10 Year "AAA" MMD 2.43% 2.11% -32 bp
30 Year "AAA" MMD 3.01% 3.00% -1 bp
30 Year "BBB" MMD 3.82% 3.86% 4 bp
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of February 15, 2019
 The 2019 equity rally continued last week as another government shutdown was avoided and there appeared to be some
progress in the US/China trade negotiations. The DJIA closed at 25,883, up 777 points on the week and 2,556 points on the
year.
 Treasuries continued to be range bound selling off to start the week before rallying into the long weekend. The 10 YR Treasury
ended the week at 2.66%, up 3 basis points in yield.
 One‐month LIBOR was down two basis points resetting at 2.48% on Friday. The SIFMA Index continued to increase resetting
at 1.72% which was up 21 basis points last week and 43 basis points over the past three weeks. SIFMA is now 69% of
one‐month LIBOR.
Headlines

2. 2
Current Municipal Market Data
Maturity "AAA" "AA" "A" "BBB"
5-year 1.69% 1.75% 2.10% 2.45%
10-year 2.11% 2.27% 2.59% 2.96%
20-year 2.82% 3.03% 3.32% 3.68%
30-year 3.00% 3.21% 3.51% 3.86%
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of February 15, 2019
 Rates continue to be lower than historical averages. To date, 30 Year ‘AAA’ MMD is 113 basis points below the 20 year
historical average.
Historical Fixed Rate Analysis
UST Rates 'AAA' MMD Bond Buyer Indices
Data 10-Year 30-Year 10-Year % UST 30-Year % UST 20 GO 25 Rev
Spot Rate 2.66 2.99 2.11 79.2 3.00 100.2 4.24 4.71
1-Mo Prior 2.79 3.10 2.21 79.4 3.06 98.8 4.19 4.66
1-Yr Prior 2.88 3.13 2.46 85.5 3.02 96.4 3.84 4.33
5 Yr Avg 2.34 2.94 2.11 90.0 2.94 100.0 3.75 4.19
10 Yr Avg 2.51 3.33 2.30 91.6 3.40 102.1 4.01 4.58
Historical Data Since February 1999 (20 Years)
Min 1.36 2.10 1.31 96.4 1.95 92.9 2.80 2.98
Max 6.77 6.70 5.37 79.4 6.04 90.2 6.09 6.48
Avg 3.58 4.21 3.15 87.8 4.13 98.1 4.44 4.92
Prepared by George K. Baum & Company As of February 15, 2019
Today’s Capital Markets

3. 3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity As of February 15, 2019
'AAA' MMD
'AA' MMD
'A' MMD
'BBB' MMD
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveCurrent MMD Yield Curve
 The Current MMD yield curve continues to remain positively sloped.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

4. 4
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity February 2018 to Present
Feb 15, 2019
Jan 18, 2019
Aug 17, 2018
Feb 16, 2018
Historical 'AAA' MMD Yield Curve
 Since February 16, 2018, 30 Year ‘AAA’ MMD rates have decreased 2 basis points..
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

5. 5
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
UST 2 Yr
UST 5 Yr
UST 10 Yr
UST 30 Yr
20 Year Historical U.S. Treasury Data
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

6. 6
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
10 Yr 'AAA' MMD
10 Yr 'AAA' MMD Avg
10 Yr UST
10 Yr UST Avg
10 Yr UST to MMD %
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Historical 'AAA' MMD & U.S. Treasury Data
 10 Year U.S. Treasuries and 10 Year ‘AAA’ MMD remain highly correlated at 97%.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

7. 7
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
June 1986 to Present
BB 25 Rev Bond Index
Average (5.62%)
Current (4.71%)
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveHistorical Bond Buyer 25 Revenue Bond Index
 The Bond Buyer 25 Revenue Bond Index is currently at 4.71% compared to the average of 5.62%.
Long Term Fixed Interest Rates

8. 8
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 2009 to Present
SIFMA Swap 30 Yr
SIFMA Swap 20 Yr
SIFMA Swap 10 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 30 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 20 Yr
67% 1M LIBOR Swap 10 Yr
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve10 Year Hist Swap Rates: 10, 20, 30 Yr SIFMA & 67% of 1M LIBOR
 The 30 Year SIFMA swap rate remained the same, while the 30 Year 67% of 1M LIBOR swap rate increased 2 basis points
from the prior week.
Long Term Swap Rates

9. 9
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
SIFMA Index
67% of 1M LIBOR
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Variable Rate History: 67% of 1M LIBOR & SIFMA Data
 The SIFMA Index set at 1.72, up 21 basis points from the prior week.
Short Term Variable Interest Rates

10. 10
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Maturity As of February 15, 2019
BBB
SIFMA Swap Rate
67% of 1M LIBOR Swap Rate
Current Market "MMD" Yield CurveCurrent Market 'BBB' MMD Yield Curve & Swap Rates
 Current 30 Year 67% of 1M LIBOR swap rates and 30 Year SIFMA swap rates are showing much lower rates than Current
‘BBB’ rates in the market.
Current ‘BBB’ MMD & Variable Interest Rates

11. 11
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
February 1999 to Present
SIFMA Index
1M LIBOR
BB 25 Rev Index
UST 10 Yr
20 Year Historical Benchmark Rates
 The following data shows the divergence between current variable and fixed rate indices.
Historical Benchmark Rates

12. 12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Spread
(bps)%
February 1999 to Present
30 Yr 'BBB' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'A' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'AA' MMD Spread
30 Yr 'AAA' MMD
Current Market "MMD" Yield Curve20 Year Historical 'AAA' MMD Tax -Exempt Credit Spread Data
 Current Tax Exempt Credit Spreads are 21, 51, and 86, basis points for ‘AA’, ‘A’, and ‘BBB’ respectively
‘AAA’ MMD Tax-Exempt Credit Spreads

13. 13
($4,000)
($2,000)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
February 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Municipal Bond Fund Flow Changes
 Municipal Bond Funds increased by $1.45 Billion from the prior week
Municipal Bond Fund Flow Changes

14. 14
Money Market Fund Flow Changes
Money Market Funds
increased $18.69
Billion from the prior
week.
Tax Exempt Money
Market Funds
decreased by $2.84
Billion from the prior
week.
$(70,000)
$(50,000)
$(30,000)
$(10,000)
$10,000
$30,000
$50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
February 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Money Market Fund Flow Changes
$(10,000)
$(5,000)
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$000's
February 2014 to Present
5 Year Historical Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund Flow Changes

15. 15
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Oct 2015 Apr 2016 Oct 2016 Apr 2017 Oct 2017 Apr 2018 Oct 2018
$ Millions
October 2015 to Present
Historical Tax-Exempt Bond Issuance
 Tax Exempt Bond Issuance increased $8.80 Billion from the prior week.
Tax Exempt Bond Issuance

16. 16
George K. Baum & Company does not endorse, guaranty or approve, and assumes no responsibility for, the content, accuracy,
reliability, or completeness of the information contained in the following presentation. The information in the following presentation
was compiled from sources believed to be reliable for informational purposes only. Presentations are intended for educational
purposes only and do not replace independent, professional judgment. You should not take, or refrain from taking action based on
its content. The opinions expressed by each presenter are theirs alone and may not necessarily represent those of employers,
institutions or other entity affiliated with each presenter. Any and all information contained therein is not intended to constitute legal
advice and accordingly, you should consult with your own attorneys regarding the application or impact of any of the information for
your specific situation, needs or use.
Disclaimer