Political economy determinants
of public investments for
nutrition in Mozambique
Workshop on Approaches and Methods
for Po...
Study motivation and objectives
Political economy
factors

Public
Expenditures

Development
outcomes

• Empirically test t...
Framework
Socio-economic inequality
Political liberties
Rule of law
Political
Corruption
de la Croix &
Delavallade
2009; K...
For this study
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment

… and
their attributes
& incentives

Public
invest...
Qualitative analytical methods
• Process tracing (Beach and Pederson, 2013) – Within-case
inferences on the presence or ab...
Process-tracing: theory-testing
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment

Budget
process

… and
their attri...
Process-tracing: theory-testing
Characteristics of investments
Process-tracing: theory-testing
Causal
mechanism

Visibility and
lag of
investments

Attributabiliy
to decision
maker

Inv...
Process-tracing: theory-building
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment

Budget
process

… and
their attr...
Process-tracing: theory-building

Coordination
across
sectors &
agencies
One agency’s
knowledge of
and influence
on anothe...
Resource flow map
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment

Budget
process

… and
their attributes
& incent...
Resource flow map
Budget process
Funding
sources

• What are the
intermediary
steps?

• Which actors
are involved?
• Who a...
Study area
Country – Mozambique
National level perspective
3 provinces
Tete
Nampula
Sofala
6 districts
2 districts selecte...
National

Provincial

District

Total

Empirical tools

Government

7

9

15

31

NGOs

6

9

Donors

4

4

Other

3

3

T...
Preliminary findings:
Actors and their incentives
• Motivations of government officials impact level of

engagement in inf...
Preliminary findings:
Characteristics of Investments
• High visibility and quick implementation: Vitamin

A distribution d...
Preliminary findings:
Budget Process
• There is no nutrition budget line item so any allocations

for nutrition are made w...
Thank you
Questions?
Feedback?
Analytical strategy
Experience with process tracing analysis
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PPWNov13- Day 2 pm- Mogues and Billings- IFPRI

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Day 2 pm session: Tewodaj Mogues and Lucy Billings, IFPRI: “Drivers of Public Investment in Nutrition—Mozambique”

Workshop on Approaches and Methods for Policy Process Research, co-sponsored by the CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM) and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) at IFPRI-Washington DC, November 18-20, 2013.

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PPWNov13- Day 2 pm- Mogues and Billings- IFPRI

  1. 1. Political economy determinants of public investments for nutrition in Mozambique Workshop on Approaches and Methods for Policy Process Research November 18 - 20, 2013 Lucy Billings*, Tewodaj Mogues* and Domingos M. do Rosário+ *International Food Policy Research Institute + Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
  2. 2. Study motivation and objectives Political economy factors Public Expenditures Development outcomes • Empirically test theory on political economy drivers for public investment decisions • Apply theory to a complex multi-sector topic – Nutrition • Examine the topic in a context with extensive development and nutrition challenges – Mozambique • From the perspective of this workshop’s themes: • Analysing policy processes • Using research evidence to influence/engage with policy processes • Evaluating the contribution fo research to policy process formulation Mode 1.2
  3. 3. Framework Socio-economic inequality Political liberties Rule of law Political Corruption de la Croix & Delavallade 2009; Keefer & Knack 2007 economic governance environment Donors ● Bureaucrats ● Beneficiaries NGOs ● Politicians ● Researchers Actors... and Budget-maximizing Vote-seeking Knowledge Collective action … and their attributes & incentives Public investment decisions de facto Olson 1985; Tridimas 2001; Binswanger & Deininger 1997 Visibility de jure Budget process Cohen et al. 1972; Davis 1971; Cowart et al. 1975; Ostrom 1977; Reinikka & Svensson, 2004 Characteristics of investments Lag Keefer & Khemani 2005
  4. 4. For this study Actors... Political and economic governance environment … and their attributes & incentives Public investment decisions Budget process Characteristics of investments
  5. 5. Qualitative analytical methods • Process tracing (Beach and Pederson, 2013) – Within-case inferences on the presence or absence of causal mechanisms Theory-testing: Identify if the theorized causal mechanisms are present and if they function as anticipated Theory-building: Investigate the empirical material to identify causal mechanisms between defined explanatory and outcome variables • Resource flow map – A component of PETSs (Reinikka and Svensson 2006, Koziol and Tolmie 2010), which seek to identify public expenditure inefficiencies. We will not conduct a full PETS in this study, but will develop a RFM to track budgeting and spending processes • Identification of emerging themes – Apply the Grounded Theory method (Glaser and Strauss, 2012) to analyse data across sites within Mozambique, and identify themes that further develop theoretical framework
  6. 6. Process-tracing: theory-testing Actors... Political and economic governance environment Budget process … and their attributes & incentives Public investment decisions Characteristics of investments
  7. 7. Process-tracing: theory-testing Characteristics of investments
  8. 8. Process-tracing: theory-testing Causal mechanism Visibility and lag of investments Attributabiliy to decision maker Investment is recognisable; Time between resource allocation and outcomes Identification of decision makers responsible for allocation Causal mechanism Outcome Political credit Public resource allocation to nutrition Greater support for politician Level of & change in public expenditures on nutrition EMPIRICAL Explanatory THEORETICAL Characteristics of investments
  9. 9. Process-tracing: theory-building Actors... Political and economic governance environment Budget process … and their attributes & incentives Public investment decisions Characteristics of investments
  10. 10. Process-tracing: theory-building Coordination across sectors & agencies One agency’s knowledge of and influence on another Causal mechanism Causal mechanism Outcome ? Public resource allocation to nutrition ? Inferred existence Observable manifestations Observable manifestations Facts of the case Level of & change in public expenditures on nutrition EMPIRICAL Explanatory THEORETICAL Actors and their incentives
  11. 11. Resource flow map Actors... Political and economic governance environment Budget process … and their attributes & incentives Public investment decisions Characteristics of investments
  12. 12. Resource flow map Budget process Funding sources • What are the intermediary steps? • Which actors are involved? • Who are the decision makers? • What are the different types of allocations? Beneficiaries • What is the budget process direction?
  13. 13. Study area Country – Mozambique National level perspective 3 provinces Tete Nampula Sofala 6 districts 2 districts selected from each province: one high and one low-investment district Selected districts so far Maputo (capital)
  14. 14. National Provincial District Total Empirical tools Government 7 9 15 31 NGOs 6 9 Donors 4 4 Other 3 3 TOTAL 20 Key informant interviews Data processing approach • Full transcription of all interviews • Coding using NVivo • Translation of Portuguese sections of coded material Document review • Government fiscal documents • Donor initiative commitments • NGO project and program planning documents 18 15 15 53
  15. 15. Preliminary findings: Actors and their incentives • Motivations of government officials impact level of engagement in information sharing and opportunity seeking • Attempts at even geographic coverage of resource allocations: Strong donor coordination body for nutrition • Still many gaps in inter-agency coordination: some NGOs implement nutrition projects without strong awareness of government nutrition initiatives and programs
  16. 16. Preliminary findings: Characteristics of Investments • High visibility and quick implementation: Vitamin A distribution during National Health Week, vs. nutrition education for behavioural change • Ability to show measurable impacts • Alignment with international nutrition priorities and employment of evidence-based interventions
  17. 17. Preliminary findings: Budget Process • There is no nutrition budget line item so any allocations for nutrition are made within sector budgets • Nearly all funding for nutrition comes from donor contributions • Donor priorities drive budget allocations (mostly in a top-down process) • Donor allocation pathways include: Through government – within a single sector (usually health) Through NGOs – easier to employ a cross-sector approach
  18. 18. Thank you Questions? Feedback? Analytical strategy Experience with process tracing analysis

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