Paper presented at the 3rd International Conference on Current & Future State of Water Resources and Environment, Chennai, India 2010

2. Study area and objectives
Defining the issues
Study organization
Study approach & peer review process
Study strategy
Scientific and technical projects
Science questions & key findings
2010/01/07 2EWRI Conference - Chennai, India

3. Lake Superior Outflow &
Lakes Michigan -Huron
Inflow
Lake Huron Outflow & St.
Clair River Inflow
Harbor Beach,
Michigan
Cleveland,
Ohio
2010/01/07 3EWRI Conference - Chennai, India

4.  To investigate St. Clair River flow characteristics and
determine how the natural regime of the river has been
changed by human activities.
 Assess relative importance of St. Clair River conveyance,
hydroclimatic and other factors in the decline in levels since
1997.
 To investigate whether the current Lake Superior outflow
management procedures could be improved considering
evolving upper Great Lakes interests and climate change.
 To make recommendation to the IJC on changes and actions
that may be necessary.
To2009To2012
2010/01/07 4EWRI Conference - Chennai, India

5. 2.2 m
2.4 m
2.6 m
2.8 m
21ft
Dredging
25ft
Dredging
27ft
Dredging
Drought
1999
2010/01/07 5EWRI Conference - Chennai, India

6. 6
Core
Science
Questions
Sediment
Factors
Hydraulic &
GIA Factors
Hydroclimatic
Factors
Modelling
 Methodology /
Strategies
 Sub-products
 Synthesis
 Final Report

7. Lake Superior
Regulation
Task Team
International
Joint
Commission
Public /
Stakeholders
IJC Study
Liaison
Independent
Review
Group
Communications
Group
IUGLS
Study
Board
Study
Managers
Public
Interest Advisory
Group
Information
Management
Physical Data &
Visualization
Continued with
Task Framework
St. Clair River
Task Team
Continued from
Management Framework
Lake Superior
Regulation
Task TeamPlan
Evaluation
Coastal ZoneEcosystem
Water
Uses
Commercial
Navigation
Hydro
Recreation
Boating &
Tourism
Data
Verification &
Reconciliation
Surveys &
Monitoring
Hydraulic
Modelling
Sediment
Studies
Mitigation Issues
(if required)
Hydroclimatic
St. Clair River
Task Team

8. 2010/01/07 8EWRI Conference - Chennai, India

9. Sediment
Science Questions:
Has the "Morphology" of the St. Clair River been altered since the 1962
dredging?
a) Is the St. Clair River bed stable or eroding?
b) If the bed of the St Clair river is eroding, what initiated it, and when?
9
1. Bathymetry changed between 1971 and 2007 (an enlarged channel).
2. Since 2000 there has been no net change in the bathymetry.
3. There is a limited bed mobility (bed forms) but no net change.
4. Shear stresses along entire river are insufficient to erode the bed.
5. Shipping, ice jams can increase shear stress.

10. Hydraulic
Science Questions:
What is causing the declining head difference between Lake
Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie?
a) Has the conveyance capacity of the St. Clair River changed since 1962?
b) If the conveyance capacity has changed what were the causes?
10
1. Increase in conveyance capacity accounts for 11 cm decrease in Lake Huron level
between 1971 and 2000 and is now stable.
2. Conveyance capacity increased by about 270 m3/s (less than 5% of the mean flow)
for a brief period in the mid 1980s.
3. About 88% of the change in conveyance has occurred in the lower river. The
mouth of the river is not a control section.
4. Conveyance probably changed in mid 1980s due to ice jam (1984).

11. Hydroclimatic
11
1. Hydroclimatic models suggest that increased conveyance capacity (8-
9 cm/3.5 in) and climatic factors (9-27 cm/3.5 to 10.5 in) account for a
drop of Lake Michigan-Huron between 1986-2005.
2. From 1962 to 1986, climate and conveyance were major factors.
3. Climate was by far the major factor for 1996 to 2005 period.
• Science Question:
How has climate affected the change in lake level relationship between Lake
Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie?

12. 12
Type of Analysis
Water Level
Change
Flow Change
1-D Basic HEC-RAS Modelling 10 cm (3.9 in)
290 m3
/s
(10,233 ft3
/s)
1-D Inverse HEC-RAS Modelling -
320 m3
/s
(11,292 ft3/s)
1-D Conveyance analysis* 2.5 to 3.2% 140 - 290 m3
/s
(4940 to 9350 ft3/s)
RMA2 2-D Modelling 12 cm (4.7 in)
290 m3/s
(10,233 ft3/s)
TELEMAC 2-D Modelling 13 cm (5.1 in) -
HydroSed 2-D Sediment Modelling 9 cm (3.6 in) -
Lake-to-lake water level analysis
8 to 10 cm
(3.1 to 3.9 in) -
Gauge-to-gauge water level analysis
Up to 14 cm
(5.5 cm) -
Flow generation with HPG**
-
170 m3/s
(6000 ft3/s)
HPG analysis
12 cm (4.7 in)
290 m3/s
(10,233 ft3/s)
Stage-Fall-Discharge equation analysis 8 cm (3.1 in) -
Mid-lakes Routing 13 cm (5.1 in) -
Coordinated Routing - Component 8 cm (3.1 in) -
Coordinated Routing - Residual 7 cm (2. 8 in)
Deterministic Mid-lakes Routing 7 cm (2. 8 in) -
Hydraulic Modelling
Data and Flow Analysis
Hydroclimate Modelling
* Change expressed as percent change in conveyance since 1971
** Value reported from dynamic simulation of flows; average change reported.

13. 2010/01/07 13EWRI Conference - Chennai, India

14. Compensation Measures
Remedial measures not be undertaken in the St. Clair River
at this time.
Addressing Effects of Long-Term Climate
Change
The need for mitigative measures in the St. Clair River be
examined as part of the comprehensive assessment of the
future effects of climate change on water supplies in the
upper Great Lakes basin in Report 2 of the Study, on Lake
Superior regulation.
2010/01/07 14EWRI Conference - Chennai, India

15. Strengthening Data Collection
Conduct bathymetric surveys every five years
Support the operation of the Study’s four new stream
flow gauging stations
Maintain the operation of the two eddy co-variance
(evaporation) gauges
Accountability Structure
2010/01/07
15EWRI Conference - Chennai, India