The Real Estate Report January/February, local market trends San Francisco: San Francisco Home Sales and Prices Up in 2012 by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2013 Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
Inside This Issue
2800 Van Ness Avenue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 San Francisco, CA 94109
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 DRE #01403882
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Dec 12 Nov 12 Dec 11
SAN FRANCISCO
Home Sales: 199 270 231
San Francisco Home Sales and Prices Up in 2012 Median Price: $ 850,000 $ 810,000 $ 610,000
Av erage Price: $1,423,067 $1,118,918 $ 822,533
Single-family, re-sales home sales rose 5.7% in 2012. The median price is now up 33% from the Sale/List Price Ratio: 99.5% 104.8% 99.6%
This is the fourth year in a row home sales have been bottom of the market, and only down 11% from Day s on Market: 59 42 63
higher than the year before. the peak. (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Condo/loft sales rose for the third year in a row, gaining
22.4% over 2011.
SALES MOMENTUM… Dec 12 Nov 12 Dec 11
for single-family, re-sale homes in San Francisco Condo Sales: 236 267 199
Prices of both homes and condos made large gains in ended the year down 1.6 points to +5.4. Sales Median Price: $ 720,000 $ 775,000 $ 625,000
2012. The median price for homes, after falling for four momentum for condos/lofts rose 0.9 of a point to Av erage Price: $ 866,348 $ 973,265 $ 825,444
years in a row, rose 10.4%, while the average price
+18.3. Sale/List Price Ratio: 101.0% 101.0% 94.6%
jumped 16.7%.
Day s on Market: 62 48 85
The median price for condos/lofts rose 12.2%. The PRICING MOMENTUM…
average price was up 10.5%. gained 3.7 points to +8.6. Pricing momentum for San Francisco Price Differences
condos/lofts was up 1.1 points to +11. from January & Peak & Trough
Sales momentum for single-family, re-sale homes in San Hom es: detached
Francisco ended the year down 1.6 points to +5.4. CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS… YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
Pricing momentum gained 3.7 points to +8.6. Sales 29% -11% 33% Jun-07 Feb-12
The median price for condos gained 15.2% year- 3-month
momentum for condos/lofts rose 0.9 of a point to +18.3.
Pricing momentum was up 1.1 points to +11. (See chart over-year. The median price is now up 25% from 12-month 9% -16% 10% Apr-08 Mar-12
below) the bottom of the market, and only down 3% from Hom es: attached
the peak. 3-month 22% -3% 25% Jul-08 Jan-12
DECEMBER MARKET STATISTICS Sales were up 18.6%. That's fourteen months in a 12-month 13% -6% 13% Aug-08 Jan-12
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes ended the
row condo sales have been higher than the year know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
year down 13.9% year-over-year.
before. and let’s discuss your situation and your options.
The median price for homes jumped 39.3% year-
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
over-year. That's four months in a row the median
It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t
price has seen double-digit gains over the year
before.
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
-10.0%
7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
© 2012 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
MORTGAGE RATES CLOSE YEAR ON ALMOST-LOWEST NOTE
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Dec 28, 2012 -- As it comes to a close, it can be said that Given the relative lack of such issues, we may come
2012 was a comparatively great year for housing to look back upon 2012 as a fairly favorable climate
10-12 markets. Home sales have been revived by improved for mortgage lending and borrowing, despite today's
07-12 affordability, produced though record low mortgage obvious challenges.
04-12
01-12
rates and low prices. The market has been pushed
High mortgage rates aren't one of them, though.
10-11 into improvement by a Federal Reserve fully utilizing
07-11 what may be its most effective policy tools: the ability HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
04-11
01-11 to directly manipulate both long-term interest rates weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- re-
10-10 and mortgage markets though various bond purchas- vealed that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-
07-10 ing programs. rate mortgages slipped backward by a single basis
04-10
01-10 point (0.01%) to 3.65%, taking back a bit of last
Including hundreds of thousands of homeowners
10-09 week's rise. The FRMI's 15-year companion was
07-09 without equity stakes, millions of homeowners re-
unchanged, holding steady at an average rate of
04-09 financed during the year, grabbing 60-year low fixed
01-09 2.96% for the week. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs
rate mortgages just as fast as a balky mortgage origi-
10-08 shed two hundredths of a percentage point (.02%),
07-08 nation system would allow them.
touching a record low 3.28% for the fourth time, and
04-08
01-08 While favorable interest rate conditions are expected kept inexpensive mortgage money available to credit-
10-07 as we move into 2013, there are plenty of issues or equity-impaired borrowers. Also, the overall aver-
07-07 which may make getting a mortgage more expensive age rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs rose a single basis
04-07
01-07 and difficult. Regulators have yet to settle upon defi- point to 3.71%.
10-06 nitions of a Qualified Mortgage or Qualified Residen-
07-06 tial Mortgage, there are Basel III accounting rules
04-06
01-06 which may upset how mortgage investments are
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% valued, new RESPA and TIL documents and forms
are due, and trouble in the FHA's finances and prob-
ably additional guarantee-fee increases are expected
to drive up the cost of obtaining mortgage credit.
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
The chart above shows the Na- (3-month moving average — $000's)
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as $1,500 300
compiled by HSH.com. The av- $1,300 250
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming, $1,100 200
"expanded conforming," and $900 150
jumbo.
$700 100
$500 50
$300 0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
7 8 9 0 1 2
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Unit Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 850,000 $1,423,067 199 58.84 99.5% 39.3% 73.0% -13.9% 4.9% 27.2% -26.3%
D1: Northw est $1,010,000 $1,479,671 14 52 104.2% 18.8% 31.9% -17.6% -13.5% 2.1% -36.4%
D2: Central West $ 785,500 $ 805,960 30 40 106.5% 29.2% 23.7% -3.2% -2.6% -3.2% -25.0%
D3: Southw est $ 615,000 $ 651,269 13 46 104.8% 22.8% 20.8% -40.9% -11.9% -7.6% -31.6%
D4: Tw in Peaks $1,067,000 $1,180,820 32 61 100.4% 36.3% 37.7% -5.9% 12.3% 8.3% -30.4%
D5: Central $1,517,500 $1,584,405 30 43 103.8% 12.5% 16.8% 50.0% 0.5% -1.5% -23.1%
D6: Central North $1,774,000 $1,740,667 6 54 103.1% 38.1% 9.9% 100.0% 42.5% 39.8% 200.0%
D7: North $5,500,000 $7,251,154 13 202 92.2% 91.3% 153.5% 44.4% 84.5% 76.6% 8.3%
D8: Northeast $1,057,500 $1,057,500 2 10 106.1% -64.2% -64.2% 100.0% -43.6% -43.6% 0.0%
D9: Central East $ 800,250 $ 860,656 16 59 106.8% 10.6% 7.3% 0.0% 1.2% -3.1% -20.0%
Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 541,944 $ 509,541 40 48 103.0% 16.5% 16.3% -37.5% 4.2% -2.2% -31.0%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2011 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure pro- investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
cess, in San Francisco plunged 25.6% in November property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
from October. Year-over-year, notices were off 65.3%. back to the bank.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc- In September, cancellations were up 0.8% from Octo-
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before ber, and up 23% year-over-year. The banks are obvi-
sale, fell 14% from October, and were down 55.3% ously more amenable to working out solutions to avoid
year-over-year. foreclosure. What took them so long?
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are Properties going back to the bank were down 9.1% in
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be November from October. Year-over-year, the number of
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan properties going back to the back was down 58.3%.
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
The total number of properties that have had a notice of
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-
default filed fell by 57.1% compared to November 2011.
ments.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
(Continued on page 4)
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,000 350
Table Definitions
$900 300 _______________
$800 250
$700 200 Median Price
The price at which 50% of pric-
$600 150
es were higher and 50%were
$500 100 lower.
$400 50
$300 0 Average Price
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND Add all prices and divide by the
7 8 9 0 1 2 number of sales.
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
SP/LP
December Sales Statistics Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) divided by the asking price.
Prices Unit Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales DOI
San Francisco $ 720,000 $ 866,348 236 61.94 101.0% 15.2% 5.0% 18.6% -7.1% -11.0% -11.6% Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
D1: Northw est $ 684,500 $ 717,583 12 82 101.8% 2.9% 1.4% -25.0% -17.0% -14.1% -29.4%
property for sale at the current
D2: Central West $ 847,500 $ 889,750 4 50 103.4% 160.0% 173.0% 100.0% 16.9% 20.2% -20.0% rate of sales.
D3: Southw est $ - $ - 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 515,000 $ 467,400 5 138 102.1% 52.1% 38.1% 150.0% 5.7% 1.3% 66.7% Pend
Property under contract to sell
D5: Central $ 730,000 $ 776,995 29 63 103.3% -5.8% -1.7% 7.4% -11.2% -13.7% -27.5%
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D6: Central North $ 793,000 $ 812,595 18 72 104.8% 31.7% 31.5% -21.7% 13.1% 0.2% -21.7%
D7: North $ 929,500 $1,043,444 18 45 98.8% 10.0% 8.7% 0.0% -10.7% -23.4% -47.1% Inven
D8: Northeast $ 712,000 $ 977,062 34 56 99.4% 8.8% 33.2% 0.0% -4.4% -2.0% -19.0% Number of properties actively
D9: Central East $ 653,000 $ 934,457 60 66 99.6% 7.0% -16.6% 5.3% -10.5% -0.2% -31.8% for sale as of the last day of the
month.
D10: Southeast $ 330,000 $ 311,667 3 115 112.3% 24.5% 19.2% -40.0% -20.1% -24.5% 50.0%

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
(Continued from page 3)
25.0
The total number of properties sched- 20.0
uled for sale declined by 40% year- 15.0
over-year 10.0
5.0
The total number of properties owned 0.0
by the bank was down 29.7% year- -5.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
over-year. The banks now own approxi- -10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
mately 474 properties in the city. -15.0
For further details and a city-by-city -20.0
breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go -25.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
to http://foreclosureradar.com.
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND
-10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.