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AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2012                                                                                                     ...
The Real Estate Report                                                   Mortgage Rate Outlook30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates...
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change30.0%20.0%10.0% 0.0%       0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA S...
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT                          San Francisco                 Robb Fleischer                 American Mark...
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As the Market Turns and Mortgage Rate Outlook - The Real Estate Report August/September

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The Real Estate Report August/September. Local Market Trends San Francisco...

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As the Market Turns and Mortgage Rate Outlook - The Real Estate Report August/September

  1. 1. AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2012 Robb Fleischer American Marketing Systems, Inc. Inside This Issue 2800 Van Ness Avenue > LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 San Francisco, CA 94109 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (415) 447-2009 rfleischer@amsiemail.com > HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 DRE #01403882 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 > MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4The Real Estate Report local market trends Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) Jul 12 Jun 12 Jul 11 SAN FRANCISCO Home Sales: 204 248 191 Median Price: $ 800,750 $ 800,000 $ 750,000As the Market Turns Av erage Price: 1,214,707 1,174,385 1,047,571 Sale/List Price Ratio: 100.2% 103.8% 98.8%Its an interesting phenomenon in the real estate market by turning underwater homeowners into Day s on Market: 47 57 59market that when the market turns, it takes awhile potential sellers.for people to catch up. In San Francisco, the (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC) More inventory will alleviate the pricing pressure Jul 12 Jun 12 Jul 11market has definitely turned in favor of sellers. we are under now. Condo Sales: 264 312 220In the current change from a buyers’ market to asellers’ market, we are seeing a great deal of JULY MARKET STATISTICS Median Price: $ 692,500 $ 730,000 $ 627,150 Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 6.8% Av erage Price: 781,287 838,697 693,719angst, particularly among buyers. year-over-year. Sale/List Price Ratio: 101.1% 101.2% 98.5%They feel like the market is getting away from Day s on Market: 59 56 77them: rising prices and inventory, while increasing, Sales are being impacted by the lack of inventory.is still on the low side. This pushed up the sales As of today, there are only 234 homes for sale in PRICING MOMENTUM…price to list price ratio in San Francisco to over the city. Thats down from 379 in June! That’s just continued moving upward in July, gaining 0.9 of a100% since March. It backed off a little in July: over one month of supply. There are 337 point to –2 for homes. The number for condos rose99.4%. condos/lofts for sale, about one and half months 1.1 points to finish in the black for only the third supply. time since December 2008: +1.2.These conditions will resolve themselves, in time.But, it is going to take time for the market to settleThe beneficiary of low inventory has been prices. The median price for homes rose 6.8% year-over- WE CALCULATE…down. momentum by using a 12-month moving average year. The median price has been higher than theIn the meantime, a bright note is the surge in prices year before for six out of the last seven months. to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’ssince the beginning of the year. We calculate the 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get amedian price for single-family homes is up 25% SALES MOMENTUM… percentage showing market momentum.since January. for homes rose 0.8 of a point to +11.2. For condos, sales momentum rose one point to +10.5. CONDO STATISTICS…Rising prices, while not something buyers want to The median price for condos gained 10.4% year-see, will go a long way towards stabilizing the over-year. Sales were up 22% from last July. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It’s important to be calm San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change and realistic. If you don’t know what to 30.0% do or where to begin, give me a call and let’s discuss your situation and 20.0% your options. 10.0% 0.0% 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2-20.0%-30.0%-40.0% © 2012 rereport.com Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
  2. 2. The Real Estate Report Mortgage Rate Outlook30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Aug 3, 2012 -- HSH.coms broad-market mortgage track- Overall, the economy is tepid at best, but the latest er -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator data suggest that there is no continuing free fall after07-12 (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30- a Euro-led downturn in the second quarter. Things04-12 year fixed-rate mortgages rose by a lone basis point are tentative and shaky, no doubt, but things could01-1210-11 (.01%) to 3.86%. The FRMIs 15-year companion be worse. The Federal Reserve is right in holding off07-11 also rose by a single basis point, landing at 3.16%, from taking new measures unless things do become04-11 two ticks above a record low. Important to homebuy- more dire, since the boost from previous policy action01-1110-10 ers and low-equity-stake refinancers, already-low has been limited at best, and there is no indication07-10 FHA-backed 30-year mortgages rose by two basis that even lower interest rates will be the right tonic for04-10 points to 3.42%, the series first bump in six weeks, what ails us. Should the economy worsen, the Fed01-10 while the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs will of course take steps to try to get it going again,10-0907-09 finished the weekly survey at 2.80%, holding at a but their options are limited. It should be noted that a04-09 record low for the most popular kind of ARM. 1.5% growth rate isnt much, but its not a recession01-09 or even an emergency, either, and compares favora-10-08 Spending on new construction projects rose by 0.4% bly with many other economies.07-08 in June, a decline from Mays 1.6% rise but still a04-08 positive. Spending for public projects was un- With the news of the defense of the Euro and the01-0810-07 changed, as cash-strapped governments have no mild improvement in the US economy, the frazzled07-07 funds to power projects. Commercial construction nerves of investors have been soothed somewhat.04-07 projects rose a scant 0.1% for the month, so all the As a result, at least some money has been pulled out01-07 gains actually came from outlays for residential pro- of safe-haven investments like US Treasuries, and10-0607-06 jects, which gained 1.3% for the month. That was a yields have risen a little bit. Theres no reason to04-06 smaller increase than the 3.1% seen in May, but the expect that rates will continue to climb at this point as01-06 last three months have been fairly strong for home- theres little to support any sustained move upward. 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% building relative to what was seen over the last cou- With a lighter calendar of economic news out next ple of years. week, we could see a slight uptick again as we bounce around the bottom. San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit SalesThe chart above shows the Na- (3-month moving average — $000s)tional monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as $1,500 300compiled by HSH.com. The av- $1,300 250erage includes mortgages of allsizes, including conforming, $1,100 200"expanded conforming," and $900 150jumbo. $700 100 $500 50 $300 0 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J 7 8 9 0 1 2 Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com July Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last m onth Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco $ 800,750 $1,214,707 204 47 100.2% 6.8% 16.0% 6.8% 0.1% 3.4% -17.7% D1: Northw est $1,242,050 $1,522,283 18 40 103.1% 3.6% 16.7% 20.0% 59.2% -1.4% -21.7% D2: Central West $ 717,500 $ 769,914 28 30 106.3% 0.1% -3.4% 7.7% -4.0% 1.6% -17.6% D3: Southw est $ 506,000 $ 551,318 17 65 105.0% 0.7% -5.5% -15.0% -15.3% -20.0% -29.2% D4: Tw in Peaks $ 875,000 $ 965,571 21 30 105.3% 0.8% -14.7% -12.5% 2.3% -8.5% -48.8% D5: Central $1,575,000 $1,727,124 37 40 103.0% 23.5% 28.6% 32.1% 24.5% 31.0% 5.7% D6: Central North $1,325,000 $1,904,611 3 38 112.2% 90.6% 174.0% 200.0% -7.0% 29.6% -40.0% D7: North $3,875,000 $6,651,031 8 98 86.6% 56.6% 97.6% -11.1% 47.7% 89.2% -57.9% D8: Northeast $1,725,000 $1,725,000 2 45 101.5% -20.3% -44.1% -60.0% -65.1% -53.2% -33.3% D9: Central East $ 890,000 $ 944,870 23 49 108.6% 8.5% 10.4% 15.0% 6.6% 4.4% 9.5%Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 505,000 $ 450,735 47 55 105.2% 6.3% -2.2% 9.3% 6.9% -1.6% 17.5%
  3. 3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change30.0%20.0%10.0% 0.0% 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2-20.0%-30.0% © 2011 rereport.comFORECLOSURE STATISTICSIn San Francisco, notices of default, the first step in the investor, bids more than the banks opening bid, theforeclosure process, dropped in June from the year property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will gobefore by 44.6%. They were down 12.6% from May. back to the bank and become part of that banks REO inventory.Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-tion, and serve as the homeowners final notice before In May, cancellations were off 21.7% from May. Year-sale, were down 41.3% from May, and down 57.2% over-year, cancellations were down 27.6%.year-over-year. Properties going back-to-bank fell 9.1% from May, andAfter the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are were down 60% year-over-year.only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be The total number of homes that have had a notice ofcancelled for reasons that include a successful loan default filed decreased by 26.9% compared to last year.modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone- The total number of homes scheduled for sale de-ments. creased by 21.4% year-over-year.Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank (Continued on page 4)will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically anSan Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000s) $1,000 350 Table Definitions $900 300 _______________ $800 250 $700 200 Median Price The price at which 50% of pric- $600 150 es were higher and 50%were $500 100 lower. $400 50 $300 0 Average Price 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J Add all prices and divide by the 7 8 9 0 1 2 number of sales. Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com SP/LP July Sales Statistics Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) divided by the asking price. Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last m onth Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales DOI San Francisco $ 692,500 $ 781,287 264 59 101.1% 10.4% 12.6% 20.0% -5.1% -6.8% -15.4% Days of Inventory, or how many D1: Northw est $ 799,500 $ 813,071 14 45 104.0% 25.7% 15.9% 16.7% 0.9% 3.2% -33.3% days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current D2: Central West $ 751,500 $ 739,500 6 60 100.8% -15.4% -16.8% 200.0% 1.6% 1.4% -14.3% rate of sales. D3: Southw est $ - $ - 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a D4: Tw in Peaks $ 459,000 $ 530,200 5 82 100.6% 31.1% 36.2% 66.7% -8.1% 3.3% -16.7% Pend D5: Central $ 875,000 $ 856,833 33 46 102.6% 22.9% 10.8% -5.7% 19.0% 8.7% -32.7% Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow.D6: Central North $ 690,500 $ 696,288 26 50 100.7% 0.1% -4.7% 23.8% 9.2% 2.5% -18.8% D7: North $ 880,000 $ 924,453 31 74 102.3% 20.2% -0.1% 47.6% -20.0% -29.2% -16.2% Inven D8: Northeast $ 759,750 $ 917,489 44 67 98.2% 38.9% 32.4% -10.2% -3.5% 0.7% -17.0% Number of properties actively D9: Central East $ 650,000 $ 703,933 101 60 101.3% 12.7% 15.6% 40.3% -8.3% -13.3% 7.4% for sale as of the last day of the month. D10: Southeast $ 280,000 $ 323,333 3 34 104.5% -11.9% -0.4% 0.0% -17.0% 6.0% -50.0%
  4. 4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT San Francisco Robb Fleischer American Marketing Systems, Inc. 2800 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109Go online to see the full reportwith the district by district breakdown:HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum(Continued from page 3) 25.0The number of homes owned by the 20.0bank fell 13.2% year-over-year. Banks 15.0now own about 579 properties in San 10.0Francisco. At the current rate of sales, 5.0this is about a five weeks supply. Five 0.0to six months supply is normal. -5.0 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ J 7 8 9 0 1 2 -10.0Data supplied by -15.0http://foreclosureradar.com. -20.0 -25.0 Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ J -10.0 7 8 9 0 1 2 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.

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