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Question 12 pts
Studies have shown that UV radiation rapidly depletes ______, which plays a crucial role in neural tube development of the embryo.
carotene
vitamin C
melanin
folate
melanocytes
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Question 22 pts
According to lecture, thus far, the oldest skeletal evidence for anatomically modern Homo sapiens could be as old as:
125,000 years
1.8 million years
400,000 years
600,000 years
195,000 years
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Question 32 pts
This tool is an example of a __________ tool using ________. They are found with increased frequency during the ______.
compound; microliths; neolithic
integrated; microliths; mesolithic
compound; burian; neolithic
composite; microliths; mesolithic
composite; mousterian flakes; mesolithic
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Question 42 pts
A person raised in the Andean highlands has relatively larger lung volume than does a person raised in the lowlands. This difference is best explained by:
Physical adaptation
Physiological adaptation
Hormonal adaptation
Developmental acclimatization
Genetic acclimatization
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Question 52 pts
Which of the following are basic changes that mark the transition from Neolithic village life to life in the first urban centers? Choose all that apply:
diversification of food resources.
agricultural innovation.
diversification of labor.
central government.
social stratification.
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Question 62 pts
Which of the following are seen in the pattern of human evolution history? Choose all that apply.
Natural selection acting on anatomically modern Homo sapiens within the last 10,000 years
Evidence of an adaptive shift starting around 1.8 mya relating to changes in body size, subsistence patterns, and technology changes
A shift from extractive foraging to food production starting about 40,000 years ago
Several groups of hominins that are not directly in the modern human lineage (our evolutionary cousins)
Evolution of increased brain size then bipedal locomotion
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Question 72 pts
As discussed in class, genetic adaptations to environmental stresses are
seen only in nonhuman animals
long term microevolutionary changes within a population
always temporary
short-term evolutionary changes within an individual
the same as acclimatization responses
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Question 82 pts
Molecular information from Ust’-Ishim Man, an anatomically modern Homo sapiensfossil dated to 45,000 years ago shows about _________% admixture with Neandertals.
10
50
2
20
0
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Question 92 pts
Nonconcordant variation means:
traits vary between populations at the same rate
the presence of one trait can predict another
traits vary gradually between neighboring populations
traits vary between populations in a predictable pattern
traits vary between populations, but not at the same rate
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Question 102 pts
Primary innovation differs from secondary innova ...
Flag this QuestionQuestion 12 ptsStudies have shown that UV .docx
1. Flag this Question
Question 12 pts
Studies have shown that UV radiation rapidly depletes ______,
which plays a crucial role in neural tube development of the
embryo.
carotene
vitamin C
melanin
folate
melanocytes
Flag this Question
Question 22 pts
According to lecture, thus far, the oldest skeletal evidence for
anatomically modern Homo sapiens could be as old as:
125,000 years
1.8 million years
400,000 years
600,000 years
2. 195,000 years
Flag this Question
Question 32 pts
This tool is an example of a __________ tool using ________.
They are found with increased frequency during the ______.
compound; microliths; neolithic
integrated; microliths; mesolithic
compound; burian; neolithic
composite; microliths; mesolithic
composite; mousterian flakes; mesolithic
Flag this Question
Question 42 pts
A person raised in the Andean highlands has relatively larger
lung volume than does a person raised in the lowlands. This
difference is best explained by:
Physical adaptation
Physiological adaptation
Hormonal adaptation
Developmental acclimatization
3. Genetic acclimatization
Flag this Question
Question 52 pts
Which of the following are basic changes that mark the
transition from Neolithic village life to life in the first urban
centers? Choose all that apply:
diversification of food resources.
agricultural innovation.
diversification of labor.
central government.
social stratification.
Flag this Question
Question 62 pts
Which of the following are seen in the pattern of human
evolution history? Choose all that apply.
Natural selection acting on anatomically modern Homo
sapiens within the last 10,000 years
Evidence of an adaptive shift starting around 1.8 mya relating to
changes in body size, subsistence patterns, and technology
changes
A shift from extractive foraging to food production starting
about 40,000 years ago
4. Several groups of hominins that are not directly in the modern
human lineage (our evolutionary cousins)
Evolution of increased brain size then bipedal locomotion
Flag this Question
Question 72 pts
As discussed in class, genetic adaptations to environmental
stresses are
seen only in nonhuman animals
long term microevolutionary changes within a population
always temporary
short-term evolutionary changes within an individual
the same as acclimatization responses
Flag this Question
Question 82 pts
Molecular information from Ust’-Ishim Man, an anatomically
modern Homo sapiensfossil dated to 45,000 years ago shows
about _________% admixture with Neandertals.
10
50
2
5. 20
0
Flag this Question
Question 92 pts
Nonconcordant variation means:
traits vary between populations at the same rate
the presence of one trait can predict another
traits vary gradually between neighboring populations
traits vary between populations in a predictable pattern
traits vary between populations, but not at the same rate
Flag this Question
Question 102 pts
Primary innovation differs from secondary innovation because:
it involves modification of primary knowledge
it involves careful experimentation to create a new technique
it involves chance discovery of a new idea
it rarely leads to changes in technology
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Question 112 pts
6. Lactase persistence is a _________ that typifies __________
communities.
developmental adaptation; foraging
developmental acclimatization; pastoralist
genetic adaptation; pastoralist
genetic adaptation; agricultural
genetic adaptation; foraging
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Question 122 pts
In regards to hominin tool kits, a blade is defined as being:
made only out of obsidian
twice as wide as it is long
a tool that takes fewer steps to make than a flake tool
twice as long as it is wide
a tool that occurs in high frequency during the middle
paleolithic
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Question 132 pts
Which is a term applied to an evolutionary process whereby
humans modify, either intentionally or unintentionally, the
7. genetic makeup of a population of plants or animals?
Transition
Revolution
Conversion
Modification
Domestication
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Question 142 pts
Many characteristics that have traditionally been used to define
'races' in human populations:
are polygenic.
are the product of Mendelian inheritance.
do not vary within groups.
can easily be altered
easily draw distinct boundaries between populations.
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Question 152 pts
Admixture is a term used by population geneticists to indicate:
the exchange of genetic information between different species
8. population separation due to behavioral boundaries
population separation due to geographic boundaries
the exchange of cultural information between populations that
have been separated for a long time
the exchange of genetic information between populations that
have been separated for a long time
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Question 162 pts
What is the benefit of an atlatl?
It is used for fishing.
It can be used as a drill
It is used for starting fires.
It is used to increase the force and distance of a spear throw.
It is a unique type of projectile point
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Question 172 pts
Bergmann’s rule
is based on the principle that heat is retained at the body surface
states that a linear body with long arms and legs is optimal for
9. cold climates
states that bodies with increased mass or volume to surface area
are optimal for cold climates
is based upon the principle that as arms increase in length, there
is a corresponding increase in surface area
concerns the relationship between climate and shape and size of
appendages
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Question 182 pts
According to the complete replacement model, the transition
from premodern to modern Homo sapiens
only occurred once, in Africa
began about 200,000 years ago in Asia
occurred first in Europe
occurred in several regions of the Old World simultaneously
began about 10,000 years ago in Indonesia
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Question 192 pts
Which of the following is NOT a physiological acclimatization
to thermal stress:
vasodilatation
10. vasoconstriction
sweating
increased hemoglobin production
shivering
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Question 202 pts
According to the Regional Continuity Model, ________
prevented local populations of pre-modern Homo sapiens from
becoming separate species.
gene flow
displacement by African Homo sapiens
genetic drift
founder’s effect
mitochondrial DNA
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Question 212 pts
Ultraviolet radiation from the sun:
stimulates the production of a vitamin D precursor
causes mutations leading to darker skin
11. increases in northern latitudes
provides vitamin D
causes rickets
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Question 222 pts
The word civilization connotes refinement and progress, but in
anthropology, the term refers to
central inhabited cities where transportation and communication
hubs exist.
societies in which large numbers of people live in political
systems that lack stratification.
societies in which small numbers of people live in socially
stratified political systems.
the independence of people to do what they desire.
societies in which large numbers of people live in socially
stratified political systems.
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Question 232 pts
The distribution pattern of Neandertal DNA in the Ust’-Ishim
Man sample as compared to its distribution pattern in modern
humans relates to:
12. crossover (recombination) during mitosis
there was no Neandertal DNA in Ust’-Ishim Man
sexual selection
the principle of independent assortment
crossover (recombination) during meiosis
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Question 242 pts
The potato, tomato, and peanut were all first domesticated in
North America
South America
Europe
Africa
Southwest Asia
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Question 252 pts
Who were the earliest Mesolithic people known to have stored
plant food, as evidenced by basin-shaped depressions in the
rocks found outside homes and plastered storage pits beneath
the floors of the houses?
Cro-magnon
13. Babylonians
Natufians
Denisovans
Neandertals
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Question 262 pts
Based on the distribution of human genetic variation, if a global
disaster killed everyone on the planet except those people living
in Asia, ______% of human genetic variation would still be
represented.
90
85
15
5
10
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Question 272 pts
Biological systems are balanced systems maintained by the
interaction of physiological mechanisms that compensate for
both external and internal changes. Such a balanced system is in
14. heterostasis
homeostasis
acclimatization
hypoxia
polystasis
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Question 282 pts
Blombos Cave is significant for accomplishments in art and
technology that date to the ________________ but are similar
to accomplishments dated to the __________________ in
Europe.
Middle Paleolithic, Lower Paleolithic
Upper Paleolithic, Middle Paleolithic
Lower Paleolithic, Middle Paleolithic
Middle Paleolithic, Upper Paleolithic
Flag this Question
Question 292 pts
The question of whether modern humans and Neandertals
interbred at some point
was settled about twenty years ago
was never an issue among paleoanthropologists
15. is far from settled
is established based on genetic evidence.
was called into question with the discoveries at Zhoukoudian
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Question 302 pts
All of the following are characteristics commonly associated
with domesticated plants except:
development of simultaneous ripening
reduction of seed protective devices, such as husks
increased size
increase in natural seed dispersal mechanisms
loss of delayed seed germination
Flag this Question
Question 312 pts
The first hominin to spread to North and South America
was______.
Homo erectus
Homo heidelbergensis
16. Homo sapiens
Neandertal
Homo habilis
Flag this Question
Question 322 pts
Which of the following best describes accelerated breathing for
a non-native at high altitude?
Physical adaptation
Genetic adaptation
Hormonal adaptation
Developmental acclimatization
Physiological acclimatization
Flag this Question
Question 332 pts
Hypoxia
is the increased availability of oxygen
is the reduced availability of oxygen
is a problem for people living at sea level
occurs at higher altitudes because the atmosphere contains less
17. oxygen than at sea level
exerts no stress on humans
Flag this Question
Question 342 pts
A polytypic species
is one composed of local populations that differ from one
another with regard to the expression of one or moretraits
is one that has very little phenotypic variability
is one composed of local populations that differ from one
another with regard to the expression of no more than three
traits
is composed of narrowly dispersed populations
has never been observed in nature
Flag this Question
Question 352 pts
Scholars attribute the earliest form of writing to__________.
health records for each of its citizens
recordkeeping of state affairs of economic activity
records of warfare accomplishments and titles
Preserving a written form of story-telling and a collection of
18. cultural myths
codification of formal law for judiciary purposes
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Question 362 pts
The application of evolutionary principles to the study of human
variation
allowed scientists to ignore the adaptive significance of most
traits
reinforced traditional views of races as fixed biological entities
that do not change
allowed scientists to divide the human species precisely into
well-defined races
helped replace earlier views based solely on observed
phenotypes
has been of little value for understanding human variation
Flag this Question
Question 372 pts
Indigenous Tibetan populations have a genetic adaptation to
high altitude that:
increases production of hemoglobin
suppresses vasodilatation for oxygen delivery
19. suppresses the typical hypoxia response
increases the risk of pregnancy difficulties due to vascular
supply issues
increases the typical developmental acclimatization response to
high altitude
Flag this Question
Question 382 pts
Upper Paleolithic toolkits are characterized by all except:
bone tools
blades
regional specializations
bronze tools
burins
Flag this Question
Question 392 pts
The Skhûl site is in ____________. One important aspect of
this region in regards to Late Pleistocene hominin evolution is
_____________.
France, contemporaneous occupation by H. erectus and
anatomically modern H. sapiens.
East Africa, contemporaneous occupation by Neandertals and
anatomically modern H. sapiens.
20. Israel, contemporaneous occupation by Neandertals and
anatomically modern H. sapiens.
France, contemporaneous occupation by Neandertals and
anatomically modern H. sapiens.
Israel, contemporaneous occupation by H. erectus and
anatomically modern H. sapiens.
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Question 402 pts
Which statement is NOT true about clinal variation:
traits with clinal variation have clearly defined geographic
boarders
it explains similarities between neighboring populations
traits with clinal variation differ gradually between neighboring
populations
human skin color is a trait with clinal variation
clinal variation refutes typological classifications of modern
humans
Flag this Question
Question 4114 pts
Match the description/definition with the site/subsistence
practice
Located in East Africa and dated to 160,000-154,000 ya; cranial
21. remains with modern human traits; includes remains of a child
Located in South Africa and dated to 165,000 ya; evidence of
microliths
cultivation of crops; uses simple hand tools
Located in East Africa and dated to 196,000-104,000 ya; cranial
framents with features identified as modern human
Located in Central Africa and dated to 80,000 ya; hooks for
fishing are found here
farming that involves large plots of land and/or extensive
irrigation
Located in Southwest Asia and dated to ~110,000 ya; cranial
remains considered to be modern human but have some
Neandertal features;
Flag this Question
Question 422 pts
One of the effects of larger population sizes during the
Neolithic is:
increase in subsistence variety
increase tooth wear
increase in infectious disease
decrease in craft specialization
22. decrease innovation in farming techniques
Flag this Question
Question 432 pts
Based on the genetic adaptations that have been found in
modern human populations that have differing amounts of starch
in their diet, what would you expect to find in a foraging
population that utilizes taro roots and yams?
A majority of people will have at least 6 copies of the amylase
gene in their genome
A majority of people will have only 3 copies of the amylase
gene in their genome
There have been no genetic adaptations found to be associated
with increased frequency of starch in the diet
A majority of people will have at least 6 copies of the lactase
persistence gene in their genome
Older individuals will have more copies of the amylase gene
than do younger individuals
Flag this Question
Question 442 pts
Consider a hypothetical human population with limited access
to medical care. Which of the following diseases is likely to be
affected by natural selection? Choose all that apply.
a heritable disease that kills affected individuals by the age of
10
a disease caused by environmental factors that kills some
23. individuals by the age of 55. Some individuals have immunity
to the effects of the disease.
a disease caused by environmental factors that kills some
individuals by the age of 10. Some individuals have immunity
to the effects of the disease.
a heritable disease that kills affected individuals by the age of
55
[ Choose ]
[ Choose ]
[ Choose ]
[ Choose ]
[ Choose ]
[ Choose ]
[ Choose ]
The Art of Managing
New Product Transitions
S P R I N G 2 0 0 7 V O L . 4 8 N O . 3
R E P R I N T N U M B E R 4 8 3 1 1
Feryal Erhun, Paulo Conçalves and Jay Hopman
24. Please note that gray areas reflect artwork that has
been intentionally removed. The substantive content of
the article appears as originally published.
Faster time to market and shorter product life cycles are
pushing compa-nies into more frequent product transitions,
requiring managers to
confront the potential rewards and challenges associated with
product intro-
ductions and phaseouts. Several studies show that most new
products fail in
the marketplace for a variety of reasons,1 and both academics
and practitio-
ners have identified strategies for improving the chances of
success.2 With a
few exceptions, these studies focus on the success of a single
product.3
However, companies often struggle with product transitions
even when
the new product meets all the requirements for success.
Consider, for
example, two consecutive generations of high-volume micropro-
cessors that we observed at Intel Corp., the U.S. semiconductor
manufacturer. For the sake of this discussion, we will refer to
25. the
products as X and Y. (See “About the Research,” p. 74.)
Intel originally designed X as a transitional product to pave the
way for a stronger performance trajectory than was occurring
with
the previous platform. While X itself performed only slightly
better
than the previous generation at launch, its design allowed for
perfor-
mance gains later based on a wide array of computing
benchmarks.
Intel planned to move a substantial portion of the market to X
and
then complete the transition to Y, which offered similar
performance
at lower cost.
Unfortunately, the transition to X did not go smoothly. With
capac-
ity in place to support a moderately strong ramp up, early
production led to
excess inventory. X’s failure to meet customers’ needs and
inability to usurp
sales from its predecessor resulted in continued demand and
26. short supply for
the prior product. Consequently, competitors succeeded at
increasing unit
sales of their products.
Intel quickly realized that there were problems with X’s
components and
pricing strategy. Management seized upon several measures to
improve sales,
including rebates, but X continued to languish. As the
introduction of Y ap-
proached, the company started an ambitious marketing
campaign and price
cut to spur sales and regain market share. These actions led to
record demand
for Y, exceeding all expectations. With limited production
capacity, Intel
SPRING 2007 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 73
P R O D U C T D E V E L O P M E N T
The Art of Managing
New Product Transitions
Feryal Erhun is an assistant professor of management science
and engineering at
Stanford University, in Palo Alto, California. Paulo Gonçalves
is an assistant professor of
27. management science at the University of Miami, in Coral
Gables, Florida. Jay Hopman is
a strategic analyst and researcher at Intel Corp., in Folsom,
California. Comment on this
article or contact the authors through [email protected]
New product launches
are highly complex
and can pose major
challenges to companies.
But managing the
interplay between
product generations
can greatly increase
the chances for success.
Feryal Erhun,
Paulo Gonçalves and
Jay Hopman
P R O D U C T D E V E L O P M E N T
struggled to meet demand for some products within the Y
family.
28. Finally, after several months, Intel succeeded in balancing
demand
and supply, eventually regaining the market share it had lost.
Coordinating supply and demand between two product gen-
erations can be a difficult and costly problem. Although Intel’s
Y
met all the requirements for a successful product introduction,
marketing and pricing decisions enacted in response to limited
market acceptance of X significantly shaped the outcome of the
Y launch. Intel’s operations management team did its best to
satisfy customers through the transition. However, customers
were frustrated by supply shortages, and the transition had sub-
stantial costs: lost revenues from discounting Y, marketing
campaign expenses, significant investments in capital
equipment
and expedited shipping.
If the success of a single product is highly uncertain and can
pose a major challenge to companies, the interplay between gen-
erations of products greatly increases the level of complexity.
For
29. example, when General Motors Corp. redesigned its Cadillac
Se-
ville and Eldorado models in 1992, supply and demand
problems
followed. Based on its initial forecasts, GM had allocated half
of
the capacity of its Detroit-Hamtramck plant to the redesigned
Cadillacs, with the remainder going to Buicks and Oldsmobiles.
But demand quickly exceeded supply, leading to the loss of
thou-
sands of potential customers. By the time GM was able to
produce
enough of the most popular models, the damage had already
been done.4 Cisco Systems Inc. had a similar experience in
early
1998 with the launch of product 3S-0, which was designed to
ap-
peal to the lower end of the market. Unfortunately, because of
its
impressive performance-price ratio, it cannibalized sales from
higher-end products. As a result,
sales of higher-end products suf-
30. fered, but the new product
revenue did not compensate for
the lost sales.5
Companies must learn to man-
age transitions to sustain their
competitive advantage. Our field
studies at Intel show that while
numerous factors affect the rate
and success of product transitions,
inadequate information sharing
and coordination among groups
is one of the more important chal-
lenges to successful transitions.6
Lack of information can prevent
managers from adequately assess-
ing the state of the transition and
impair the effective design and
implementation of contingency
31. planning in the face of unexpected
changes. For instance, during Intel’s product X-Y transition, the
marketing team did not thoroughly investigate the production
ca-
pacity upside to support the new marketing plan for product Y,
leading to supply shortages.
The alignment of actions and decisions across different inter-
nal groups and across organizations helps level expectations and
synchronize responses across the various teams involved in the
transition, thereby improving the company’s ability to
anticipate
and react to environmental changes. The ability to adapt to
change while meeting market objectives is a critical aspect of
managing product transitions. To promote alignment across
groups and the development of prevention and mitigation strate-
gies, we have developed a framework and a process for helping
managers make decisions during product transitions.
Using our framework, managers can design and implement
appropriate policies to ramp up sales for new products and ramp
32. down sales for existing products, balancing the supply and the
demand for both so that combined sales can grow smoothly.
(See
“Smooth and Troubled Product Transitions.”)
Although the approach does not eliminate the uncertainty of
product transitions, it provides managers with an overall under-
standing of the risks and challenges and suggests possible
courses
of action. Early experience suggests that the process can lead to
more robust, efficient and effective product transitions. 7
Managing Product Transitions
The process of managing product transitions begins by identify-
ing specific market objectives. Once these have been selected,
companies need to understand the product drivers and risks and
74 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW SPRING 2007
Our research is based on a three-year study between 2001 and
2004 at Intel Corp. on the
risks and drivers affecting product transitions. We conducted
about 40 semi-structured inter-
views with managers in supply chain management, demand
forecasting, sales, marketing
33. and product development. After studying multiple historical and
current product transitions
at Intel, we learned that smooth transitions are difficult to
achieve. The complexity of de-
mand and supply dynamics causes tremendous uncertainty
before a product launch that is
not fully resolved until several quarters after it. We observed
that functional teams across the
organization had access to specific information (for example,
about macroeconomic condi-
tions in Asia or the availability of a particular part) that had
significant bearing on the relative
demand and supply of old and new products. However, the lack
of a formal mechanism to ag-
gregate and utilize such diverse information frequently caused
misalignment. We saw the
need for a new process to overcome this obstacle. The process
we designed begins with de-
fining a specific market objective. Subsequent steps involve
identifying and measuring a set
of factors across departments for each product (old and new) to
assess product drivers and
risks; exploring possible risks arising from interactions between
products using the transition
34. grid; and developing a transition playbook, including prevention
and contingency strategies
with which to manage and mitigate transition risks.
About the Research
SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU/SMR
conduct a factor assessment, which involves monitoring and
measuring the factors affecting both old and new products. The
process also necessitates a detailed analysis of the risks arising
from interactions between products and the development of a
transition playbook, which amounts to a catalog of primary and
contingency strategies for preventing and mitigating transition
risks. As market conditions change, managers need to be pre-
pared to initiate the process again.
Identifying Product Drivers and Risks Our research on multiple
generations of products at Intel suggests numerous factors
that affect the adoption rate and success of a new product.
The factors fall into two general categories of risks and drivers:
demand and supply. Although either a demand risk or a supply
35. risk can lead to a complete product failure, successful product
introductions depend on a balance between demand and sup-
ply. Demand risks reflect the market’s uncertainty about a new
product (for example, concerns about product attributes and
transition policies). Supply risks often stem from the challenges
of utilizing new manufacturing processes or product designs,
or the difficulties of producing and distributing the product.
Across demand and supply risks, we focused on a set of factors
that influence the success of product transitions. (See “Product
Drivers and Risk Factors,” p. 76.)
The eight factors cover most of the risks affecting the adop-
tion rate of a new product. They encompass product features
(product capability); process features (internal execution);
supply
chain features (external alignment and execution); managerial
policies (pricing, timing and marketing); and externalities
(envi-
ronmental indicators and competition).
Although organizations may have access to de-
36. tailed information about the product drivers and
the risk factors affecting them, individual func-
tional groups rarely have a complete picture of the
overall forces impacting a product introduction.
Our process provides a method for developing a
cross-organizational transition assessment. This
structured and repeatable process benchmarks the
prospects and sales forecasts of new products
against the experience of current and prior genera-
tions of products.
Assessing Relevant Factors Effective planning de-
pends on collaboration and shared insight across
the organization. If the best information is distrib-
uted among many different groups, the most one
can expect is disjointed decisions. During the fac-
tor assessment phase, managers conduct a complete
evaluation of the risks impacting a product, high-
lighting the different challenges. This provides
managers with an opportunity to make decisions based on spe-
37. cific information.
To assess the actual values of specific factors, it is necessary to
interview key players in functional groups involved in managing
the new product (including marketing, sales, planning and fore-
casting). Each group scores all eight factors from their
particular
vantage point, using a five-point scale (with one very favorable
and five very unfavorable). The scores can be compared with
baselines from past products. Since different functional groups
typically have privileged understanding and information about
specific areas, each group scores every factor and documents
the
reasons motivating their scores. Sharing the comments and con-
solidating the information provides everyone with an
understanding of how each group assesses the overall risks for a
given product. After meeting with all groups, a cross-functional
product management team can develop a composite score for
each factor, providing a simple metric for the state of a product.
(See “Mapping Intel’s Transition from X to Y,” p. 78.)
38. Since managerial and environmental changes continually im-
pact product sales, updating factor assessments allows managers
to identify risky areas and evaluate the results of previously im-
plemented strategies. In our experience, however, updating
information too frequently can be a distraction since it often
takes time for strategies to kick in. Frequent updates may also
induce managers to take premature or unnecessary actions. The
frequency of updates should depend on the industry in question
and the life expectancy of the products. For example, in high
tech, the appropriate interval between updates might be
monthly,
whereas in other industries it might be no more than every quar-
ter or any time a significant change occurs in one of the factors
SPRING 2007 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 75
New product transitions should be organized to allow companies
to
increase sales over time without disrupting sales or
profitability. When
transitions are rocky, total revenues decline.
39. Smooth and Troubled Product Transitions
SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU/SMR
Time (years)
Sales
(units/month)
71 2 3 4 5 6
Old
Product
New
Product
New
Generation
Total Sales
P R O D U C T D E V E L O P M E N T
76 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW SPRING 2007
(such as competitors launching a marketing campaign or lower-
ing their prices). Managers should balance the availability of
new
information and the amount of time required for decisions to
have a measurable impact.
40. Looking Across Product Generations To understand the risks of
a
transition from one product to another, it is important to evalu-
ate the interplay between products. A simple method for doing
this is to study the interactions between demand and supply
risks
for the products. Using the composite factor analysis, managers
can assess an overall demand risk and an overall supply risk for
each product by assigning weights to each factor that composes
demand and supply, and then creating a weighted average. For
example, by comparing the overall demand risk of a given prod-
uct to a threshold value, managers can rate the risk above that
level as high and below it as low. As a result, the demand and
sup-
ply risks for either the old or the new product can be either high
or low. For any product transition, there are 16 possible
combina-
tions of risks, which can be represented in something we call a
transition grid. (See “A Sample Transition Grid: Demand and
Supply Risks of Two Products.”)
41. Generally, comparative rankings of demand and supply risks
indicate that risks for the new product have a stronger impact on
profitability than risks for the old product and that companies
have less ability to manage demand risks than supply risks.
Therefore, demand risks and new product risks tend to have
higher risk scores than supply risks and old product risks, re-
spectively. Based on comments from the functional groups,
transition team members can use these comparisons to gain in-
sight into key questions, including: Are we producing the right
products? Can we meet customer demand? And do customers
want the products we supply?
Positioning a particular product transition within the grid
enables transition teams to look beyond a single product and
evaluate the potential impact that products may have on each
other. Even when only one of the products is prone to supply or
demand risks, managers should consider potential demand can-
nibalization and spillover effects on the other product as well as
the potential for supply imbalances.
42. Developing a Transition Playbook Companies often resort to
contin-
gency strategies to rescue a product after it is launched.
However,
their ability to rescue a product using contingency strategies is
limited.8 Factor analysis and the transition grid provide
strategic
and tactical assessment tools for anticipating potential
challenges
in launching new products. However, they do nothing to
generate
Eight factors significantly contribute to demand and supply risk
during product transitions.
Risks Factors Definition (Example)
D
e
m
a
n
d
R
is
k
s
43. Environmental Indicators Demand due to macroeconomic and
business forces/cycles
(overall business climate)
Competition Overall threat posed by competitive products
(market share, manufacturing capacity)
Product/Platform Pricing Product/platform price relative to
alternative products
(bill-of-material cost, expected price changes)
Timing Timing relative to past, present and future alternative
products
(time since last introduction, time until next introduction)
Marketing Indicators/Policies Positioning and measures of
market response
(market size, number of potential product applications, budget
size, breadth
and timing of advertising, promotions)
S
u
p
p
ly
R
44. is
k
s
Product Capability Product capability relative to alternative
products
(performance, quality, longevity, reliability, compatibility with
previous
generations, complementarity with other products)
External Alignment and Execution Acceptance and drive from
supply chain partners
(partners’ ability to manufacture products using state-of-the-art
technology
and standards, acceptance of the new product within the product
platform)
Internal Execution Ability to supply the product in volume
(execution of internal design, designing products for
manufacturability,
manufacturing (or testing) capacity and flexibility, distribution)
Product Drivers and Risk Factors
SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU/SMR
specific strategies or fallback alternatives when the original
45. plans
don’t materialize. By assessing the state of a transition early on,
companies can gain an overall understanding of the risks
impact-
ing the transition and factors requiring immediate attention,
allowing them to adopt prevention strategies.
Rather than having to react to problems in the heat of battle,
companies can use prevention strategies to help identify the le-
vers that may have the most direct impact on the outcomes they
are trying to achieve. Some levers can impact several high-risk
factors at once, but only in a longer time frame. As such, these
holistic levers target the product road maps rather than the im-
mediate transition. Others affect specific factors that hinder
supply or demand during the transition at hand. Managers con-
sidering prevention strategies need to consider cost as well as
ease
of implementation, recognizing which levers are available and
which ones they control. For example, companies can have
strong
influence over pricing, the timing of product introductions,
46. product capability and internal execution but only indirect con-
SPRING 2007 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 77
Rank
Old Product New Product
Comment
Risk
CategoryDemand
Risk
Supply
Risk
Demand
Risk
Supply
Risk
1 Low Low Low Low Most desirable transition. 1
2 High Low Low Low Customers do not want old product
(indifferent to line below).
1
3 Low High Low Low Limited availability of old product
indifferent to line above).
1
47. 4 High High Low Low Customers do not want old product;
challenging to supply it.
2
5 Low Low Low High Challenging to supply new product. 2
6 Low Low High Low Customers do not want new product. 3
7 Low Low High High Customers do not want new product;
challenging to supply it.
3
8 High Low Low High Challenging to supply new product;
customers do not want old.
4
9 Low High Low High Challenging to supply either product. 4
10 High Low High Low Customers do not want either product. 5
11 Low High High Low Customers do not want new product;
challenging to supply old.
5
12 High High Low High Customers want new product; challeng-
ing to supply it.
5
13 Low High High High Customers want old product;
challenging
to supply old and new.
48. 5
14 High High High Low Can only supply new product, but cus-
tomers do not want it.
5
15 High Low High High Can only supply old product, but cus-
tomers do not want it.
5
16 High High High High Customers do not want either product;
challenging to supply them.
5
A Sample Transition Grid: Demand and Supply Risks of Two
Products
The table below provides a snapshot assessment of a typical
transition. When both products have high demand or supply
risks,
the product interactions may further intensify the risks. For
example, demand risk is high for both generations of products
in
rows 10, 14, 15 and 16, suggesting that managers need to
monitor inventories closely.
SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU/SMR
49. 78 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW SPRING 2007
P R O D U C T D E V E L O P M E N T
trol over what their competitors do. Managers need to be
mindful
that prevention strategies can have unintended consequences;
once they signal a new strategy, competitors might follow suit.
Weighing these kinds of considerations in advance allows
managers to address potential weaknesses before they become
crippling. Although a well-designed strategy often takes several
factors into account, companies are frequently most vulnerable
to factors they have the least control over and rely too heavily
on
the factors they can control most easily. For instance, a
company
might have several different ways to mitigate the risk of a
supply
problem caused by development or production issues. One op-
tion may be to increase prices, thereby reducing the likelihood
In transitioning from product X to product Y, Intel’s primary
market objective was to recover market share lost by X. The
transition
50. was built on four main factors. On the demand side, the
product/platform pricing risk fell from high (for X) to medium
(for Y) based
on lower component costs and price cuts that accompanied the
launch of Y. The risk linked to marketing indicators also
improved,
from medium to low, since the price-performance ratio made Y
an attractive mainstream product. In addition, external
alignment
improved from medium to low as customers, many of whom had
resisted X, looked forward to using Y. On the supply side, risk
asso-
ciated with internal execution rose (from low to medium) for
two main reasons: Capacity for producing Y was limited, and
the
higher-speed products in the Y family reduced factory output.
(Since Y was larger than X, it required more factory runs to
produce
the same number of units.) Overall, the factor assessment
process highlighted the differences between the two products:
There was
high demand risk for X, whereas for Y there was little demand
risk but some new supply risk.
Based on this analysis, it should not have been surprising that Y
would cannibalize sales of X. In fact, that is what happened:
Intel
faced shortages of Y and excess inventory of X. An effective
51. strategy for Intel would have been to set a higher price for Y
rather than of-
fering it at a discount. As contingencies, Intel could have
lowered the price of X in hopes of promoting sales and
allocated more
manufacturing capacity to Y. Such actions would have
rebalanced demand between the two products both in the short
term and in the
long term. Although price discounting and a marketing
campaign potentially might have helped X, using them on Y led
to shortages.
Intel recouped its lost market share in the quarters following the
launch of Y, so the transition achieved some success. However,
the lack of supply strained customer relationships, and by
pushing factories to the limit and operating with insufficient
inventory,
Intel’s operating costs rose during that period.
Factor Product X Score Product Y Score
Environmental
Indicators
Demand and economy relatively slow;
no imminent improvement on horizon
3 Demand and economy relatively slow;
no imminent improvement on horizon
52. 3
Competition Competing products are better aligned
to mainstream market
3 Competitors’ sales strong relative
to historical levels but limited by
manufacturing capacity
2.75
Product/
Platform Pricing
Platform cost significantly higher than
prior generation
4 Reduction in overall platform cost and
marketing decision to cut prices
2.5
Timing Released less than one year after prior
generation; Y known to be only a few
quarters away
3.5 Release closely follows X; Y will not be
replaced in the near term
53. 3
Marketing
Indicators
Positioned toward higher end of market
with higher price and performance
2.75 Price reduction brings product back to
mainstream market segments
1.5
Product
Capability
Faster clock speed than prior generation,
but benchmarks show only modest
performance gains in many applications
3.5 Potential clock speed is high, but overall
speed gains are impaired by localized
bottlenecks
2.5
External
Alignment and
Execution
54. Strong resistance to adopting some new
technologies in the platform; higher
materials cost; platform architecture
will change with Y
3.5 New architecture and accompanying plat-
form materials cost reduction bring record
number of design wins; price cuts enable
greater performance at lower price points
2
Internal
Execution/Risk
Supply positioned for moderately paced
ramp up
1 Decreased supply capability due to less
efficient production and lower yields
associated with road map acceleration
2
Mapping Intel’s Transition From X to Y
SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU/SMR
55. SPRING 2007 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 79
that the products customers order
are out of stock. This approach
could shift demand to the future,
but it may prompt customers to
buy competing products. In con-
sidering their options, companies
need to evaluate the costs. Rather
than increase prices, the company
may be better off outsourcing ca-
pacity to other producers. But that
is not always feasible in light of
concerns about proprietary infor-
mation and lead times. To preserve
the option of using outsourcing as
a contingency strategy when the
need arises, companies may need a
56. corresponding prevention strategy
to line up alternative resources
ahead of time.
Once companies complete their
transition risk assessments, man-
agers can create playbooks
containing relevant transition sce-
narios, prevention strategies and
contingency strategies. A good
playbook identifies events or sce-
narios that lead to major risks,
assesses the impact these events
may have on new and current
products and lays out prevention
and contingency strategies for the
transition team. (See “A Sample
Transition Playbook.”)
Even well-planned and well-executed product transitions
57. often require strategy updates. By mapping out prevention strat-
egies, risks and contingency strategies in advance, a transition
playbook can minimize risks. It allows managers to monitor key
supply and demand risk indicators, so they can make strategy
revisions and invoke contingency strategies as needed.
Although companies place enormous emphasis on new prod-
uct introductions, products with many successful attributes still
experience difficulty when they interact in unexpected ways
with
current products. Transition mapping provides a structured ap-
proach to collecting information and coordinating actions across
the organization. It pulls together the key differences in
perspec-
tives from different functional groups, saving companies from
some of the second-guessing and manipulation that often occurs
when important information is revealed later. While our process
was developed at Intel and has been used successfully in transi-
tions there, it can be applied broadly to different settings. The
implementation details will change depending on the industry,
58. the company and the product, but the overall methodology will
stay essentially the same.
EVALUATING PRODUCT INTERACTIONS is central to the
success of
product transitions. By anticipating risks, companies can seek
ways to align their products. Playbooks can help managers de-
velop robust prevention and contingency strategies to deal with
the supply and demand risks identified by the transition grid.
They can help managers see potential shifts in the business
envi-
ronment before they occur, allowing managers to make timely
adjustments that are particularly critical for products with short
life cycles and long production delays.
REFERENCES
1. See, for example, G.S. Lynn and R.R. Reilly, “Blockbusters:
The Five
Keys to Developing Great New Products” (New York:
HarperBusiness,
2002); E.E. Bobrow and D.W. Shafer, “Pioneering New
Products: A
A transition playbook identifies relevant scenarios and maps
their impact on old products
59. (OP) and new products (NP) to outline possible prevention and
contingency strategies.
Scenarios should be developed in response to risks identified in
the factor assessment
and the transition grid.
Events/
Scenarios
Demand for
NP higher than
expected
Supply problems
for NP
Demand for
NP lower than
expected
Impact on OP • Demand
cannibalization
• Demand spillover • Demand spillover
Expected
Outcome
• Supply shortage
for NP
• Excess supply for
OP
60. • Excess demand and
hence possible supply
shortage for OP
• Supply shortage for NP
• Supply shortage
for OP
• Excess supply for NP
Prevention
Strategies
• Supply portfolio
• Product pricing
• Internal execution
• Product design
• Internal execution
(process yield)
• Product pricing
• Product
characteristics
• External alignment
and execution
Contingency
Strategies
61. • Gradually phase
out OP
• Outsource OP
• Decrease OP price
• Increase NP price
• Allocate more
capacity to NP
• Gradually phase out OP
• Outsource OP or NP
• Decrease OP price
• Increase NP price
• Allocate more capacity
to NP
• Gradually phase
out OP
• Increase OP price
• Increase production
of OP
• Accelerate road map
• Decrease NP price
(rebates/promos)
62. • Heavy marketing
of NP
• Work on external
alignment and
execution
A Sample Transition Playbook
SLOANREVIEW.MIT.EDU/SMR
80 MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW SPRING 2007
P R O D U C T D E V E L O P M E N T
Market Survival Guide” (New York: Irwin, 1987); and R.M.
McMath and T.
Forbes, “What Were They Thinking?” (New York: Crown
Business, 1998).
2. See R.G. Cooper, “How New Product Strategies Impact On
Perfor-
mance,” Journal of Product Innovation Management 1, no. 1
(January
1984): 5-18.
3. See N.P. Trepanning, “Understanding Fire Fighting in New
Product
Development,” Journal of Product Innovation Management 18,
no. 5
(September 2001): 285-300. See also C. Billington, H.L. Lee
and C.S.
Tang, “Successful Strategies For Product Rollovers,” Sloan
Manage-
63. ment Review 39, no. 3 (spring 1998): 23-30.
4. M.L Fisher, J.H. Hammond, W.H. Obermeyer and A. Raman,
“Making
Supply Meet Demand in an Uncertain World,” Harvard Business
Review
72, no. 3 (May-June 1994): 83-93.
5. The Cisco Systems transition example is based on a 2001
white
paper, “Strategizing for Success: Cisco Systems Overcomes a
Product
Transition Dilemma,” ZDNet UK, London, February 20, 2001,
http://
whitepapers.zdnet.co.uk/0,39025945,60045032p-
39000468q,00.htm.
6. Billington, Lee and Tang corroborate this finding and present
a high-
level process for managing new product transitions. They
recommend
dual-product rollovers (that is, introducing the new product
before the
end of life of the old one) for transitions with high demand and
supply
risks and solo-product rolls (the new product introduction
concurring
with the old product’s end of life) for low demand and supply
risk envi-
ronments. Oftentimes, however, the industry dictates the choice
of solo
versus dual roll. Dual-product roll is standard in the high-tech
industry
where product platforms are common, even for products with
low de-
mand and supply risks. Further, the process proposed by
64. Billington, Lee
and Tang does not provide much insight into tactical and
operational de-
cisions regarding pricing, capability, marketing budgets or
product
deployment, all of which can have a substantial impact in the
success of
a transition.
7. We tested the transition mapping process, particularly the
factor analy-
sis process, using a large-scale product transition at Intel. For
this
transition, Intel’s central business planning group felt that sales
of the
new product would come in fairly strong. Defining x as the
realistic
“whisper” estimate among forecasters, a figure of roughly 1.2x
was cir-
culated to drive supply. Meanwhile, estimates aggregated from
the
geographical sales organizations suggested lower sales, ranging
over
time from 0.65x to 0.9x. Based on the results of the factor
analysis and
historical sales in the same product family, the transition
mapping team
predicted that sales were unlikely to exceed 0.93x and would
likely be
lower. The drivers for this recommendation included solid
evidence that
component cost would reduce demand early in the transition and
that
the complexity of the new platform posed significant supply
risk. Sales
forecasts were revised downward from 1.2x prior to the launch
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