A presentation by Greenwell Matchaya, PhD, Coordinator-ReSAKSS-SA & Senior Economics Researcher IWMI (CGIAR)

1. Staple Food System Dynamics and
The Covid-19 Crisis in Southern
Africa
Greenwell Matchaya, PhD
g.matchaya@cgiar.org
Coordinator-ReSAKSS-SA & Senior Economics Researcher-IWMI(CGIAR)
Pretoria - October 15, 2020

2. PRESENTATION STRUCTURE
• Introduction
• COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Mozambique
• COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Malawi
• COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Zambia
• Conclusions and recommendations

3. INTRODUCTION
• After February 2020: COVID 19 introduction in Southern Africa
• Control measures to curb the spread of the pandemic : restrictions
of the movement of people, Market bans, border crossing
restrictions, curfews, etc.
• Market disruptions
• A focus on maize markets in Mozambique, Zambia, Malawi

4. Introduction: Major Maize Production and Consumption Areas
• In Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi, most of maize supply is locally
produced
• But there is also a significant cross-border trade among the three
countries
• Major production regions in Mozambique include Zambezia,
Nampula, Manica, and Tete provinces,
• While Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo are generally deficit areas

5. Introduction: Major Maize Production and Consumption Areas (cont’d)
• In Zambia, the Eastern, and Central provinces may be considered
surplus,
• While the more urban Lusaka and Copperbelt are generally deficit
areas
• The Southern Region in Malawi is generally a food deficit area,
• whereas the Northern and Central regions may be considered food
surplus, although there are internal variations.

6. MAIZE GRAIN PRICES CONSISTENTLY HIGHER IN DEFICIT AREAS IN MOZAMBIQUE
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Mozambique (cont’d)

7. • Prices also showed a general downward trend from end of February in both deficit and
surplus areas
• Although the trends are not homogenous across cities, there was a general decline after
February
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan/19
Feb/19
Mar/19
Apr/19
May/19
Jun/19
Jul/19
Aug/19
Sep/19
Oct/19
Nov/19
Dec/19
Jan/20
Feb/20
Mar/20
Apr/20
May/20
Jun/20
MaizePrice-Mt/KG
Food Surplus Areas
TETE ZAMBEZIA MANICA
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Mozambique(cont’d)

8. • A general downward trend in the price of maize grain in surplus and deficit area markets in
Mozambique compared to model predicted prices
• Maize prices declined significantly in March, April and May but started to recover in June
with the easing of confinement measures. More reduction in surplus markets
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2019m1 2019m2 2019m3 2019m4 2019m5 2019m6 2019m7 2019m8 2019m9 2019m102019m112019m12 2020m1 2020m2 2020m3 2020m4 2020m5 2020m6
MaizePrices-MT/KG
Decift vs Surplus areas
Observed S-Prices Predicted S-Prices Observed D-Prices Predicted D-Prices
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Mozambique

9. • Maize grain prices consistently higher in deficit areas in Malawi
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Malawi
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-19 Fév-19 Mar-19 Avr-19 Mai-19 Juin-19 Juil-19 Aou-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Déc-19 Jan-20 Fév-20 Mar-20 Avr-20 Mai-20
MalawiKwacha/kg
Maize prices
South Centre North

10. • Prices also showed a general downward trend from end of February in both deficit and
surplus areas in Malawi
• Although the trends are not homogenous across cities, there was a general decline after
February
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price
behavior-Malawi
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-19 Fév-19 Mar-19 Avr-19 Mai-19 Juin-19 Juil-19 Aou-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Déc-19 Jan-20 Fév-20 Mar-20 Avr-20 Mai-20
MalawiKwacha/kg
Maize prices
Blantyre Lilongwe Mzimba

11. RAPID INCREASE IN THE SHARE OF MARKETS WITH LOWER-THAN-PREDICTED PRICES FOR
MALAWI
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Rural primary markets
Rising prices Declining prices
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Urban markets
Rising prices Declining prices
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-Malawi

12. • Prices declined in both urban and rural areas in Malawi, relative to model predictions
• Maize prices declined significantly in March, April and May but started to recover in June
with the easing of confinement measures. More reduction in surplus markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
PRICEPERKG(MK)
Urban Maize prices
Actual Price Predicted Price
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
PRICEPERKG(MK)
Rural primary maize markets
Actual Price Predicted Price
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price
behavior-Malawi

13. Maize grain prices consistently higher in deficit areas in Zambia
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20
ZMW/Kg
Maize Grain Prices
Average Prices in Surplus Provinces Average Prices in Deficit Provinces
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior
Zambia

14. Prices also showed a general downward trend from end of february in both deficit and
surplus areas in Zambia
• Although the trends are not homogenous across cities, there was a general decline after
February
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Jan
19
Feb
19
Mar
19
Apr
19
May
19
Jun
19
Jul
19
Aug
19
Sep
19
Oct
19
Nov
19
Dec
19
Jan
20
Feb
20
Mar
20
Apr
20
May
20
Jun
20
ZMW/Kg
Maize Grain Prices in Surplus Provinces
Central Province Eastern Province
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Jan
19
Feb
19
Mar
19
Apr
19
May
19
Jun
19
Jul
19
Aug
19
Sep
19
Oct
19
Nov
19
Dec
19
Jan
20
Feb
20
Mar
20
Apr
20
May
20
Jun
20
ZMW/Kg
Maize Grain Prices in Deficit Provinces
Lusaka Province Copperbelt Province
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price
behavior-Zambia

15. • A general downward trend in the price of maize grain in surplus and deficit area markets in
Zambia
• Maize prices declined significantly in March, April and May but started to recover in June
with the easing of confinement measures. More reduction in surplus markets
-40.00
-35.00
-30.00
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
January February March April May June Total
ZMW/Kg
Surplus Provinces
Central Province Eastern Province -40.00
-35.00
-30.00
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
January February March April May June Total
ZMW/Kg
Deficit Provinces
Lusaka Province Copperbelt Province
COVID-19-related market disruptions and maize price behavior-
Zambia

16. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
 COVID-19 pandemic has led to some governments measures to control
the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic
 Government pronouncements relating to the need to observe social
distancing to limit the spread, have impeded arbitrage between markets
and further led to rising supplies relative to demand,
 The reduced demand, together with an increase in supplies from the
harvest season have led to rapidly falling prices in local markets

17. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)
 Other direct confinement and containment measures too have led to a
general downward trend in prices.
 Affecting the movement of goods and impacting on the cost of food
consumed in the population.
 This happened in each of the focus countries ie Mozambique, Zambia and
Malawi
• The confinements may have created difficulties in cross-border trade and
may have played a greater role in determining price behavior across the
board in each country, not just in border areas.

18. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)
 The potential negative impact from the observed decline in prices shows
the critical importance of trans-border trade for smallholder farmers and
small businesses.
 For instance, while the downward prices many have been good for
consumers, they likely hurt the ability of producers and aggregators to
produce in future.
• To avoid enormous negative effects on demand, future restrictions and
interventions should be sequenced such that the impact on domestic
markets and cross-border operations are minimized

19. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)
 Government support to small food supply businesses would be a good
initiative to minimize the impact on producer and aggregator households.
 In particular:
 Better plan confinements and other restrictions so as to minimize domestic and
international market disruptions and ensure continuity of flows of food staples
between surplus and deficit areas.
 Better targeting and early identification and isolation of affected areas to avoid large
scale disruptions.

20. FURTHER INFORMATION
https://www.akademiya2063.org/events.php?lang=en
www.resakss.org
Take note: 2020 ReSAKSS continental Conference is planned for 03-05 November,
online
The theme of the conference is “Sustaining Africa's Agrifood System
Transformation: The Role of Public Policies.” (resakss@akademiya2063.org for
more information)
https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/

21. Thank
You