Seven Years of the Implementation of the Malabo Declaration: Making Sense of the Malabo Theory of Change

1. Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
SEVEN YEARS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MALABO
DECLARATION: MAKING SENSE OF
THE MALABO THEORY OF CHANGE
Dr. John Ulimwengu (Presenter)

2. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Motivation
• From Maputo to Malabo
• Maputo: allocate 10% budget to agriculture to achieve 6% agriculture
growth, and reduce poverty rate by 50% by 2015
• Malabo: Maputo +: 7 commitments
• The BR framework
• Mute on causation
• Mute on spillover
• Mute on tradeoffs.
• Need for a Theory of Change for Malabo

3. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Making the case for a Theory of Change
for Malabo Declaration
• Clarify interventions: Map out the causal pathways from specific
interventions to desired outcomes.
• Enhance stakeholder alignment: Align the diverse array of
stakeholders, including governments, development partners, private
sector players, and farmers, around a common understanding of the
goals and how they can be achieved.
• Improve communication: Offer a clear and compelling narrative that
can be used to communicate the objectives and strategies of
CAADP/Malabo to a broader audience, thereby garnering wider
support and understanding.

4. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Making the case for a Theory of Change
for Malabo Declaration (III)
Benin, Ulimwengu,
and Tefera (2018).

5. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Econometric Analysis (II)
• Over 2017-2021 period, out
of the 45 BR performance
categories (pc), only 14,
about 31.1%, have had
significant total effects on
the Africa Agricultural
Transformation Score
(AATS).
• This implies that either the
selection of drivers may
have been overly ambitious,
or the implementation
process has not been very
effective.

6. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Examples of key results (I)
•Budget lines on social protection: increases the
proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the
minimum acceptable diet and agricultural labor
productivity.
•Domestic food price volatility index : stability increases
the proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the
minimum acceptable diet.
•Domestic private sector investment in agriculture as % of
agriculture value added: increases agricultural land
productivity.

7. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Examples of key results (II)
• Proportion of men and women engaged in agriculture with access to
financial services: increases the proportion of 6-23 months old
children who meet the Minimum Acceptable Diet
• Reduction rate of Post-Harvest Losses for (at least) the 5 national
priority commodities: decreases the prevalence of underweight (% of
children under 5 years old) while increasing the growth rate of the
agriculture value added and growth rate agricultural labor
productivity.
• Share of agriculture land under sustainable land management
practices : increases the growth rate of yields for the 5 national
priority commodities
• Total Agricultural Research Spending as a share of Agricultural GDP :
reduces the prevalence (%) of food insecure adults.

8. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Concluding Remarks
• Across the continent, some countries have made significant progress in
implementing the CAADP/Malabo agenda or related processes, while
others still face greater challenges.
• In general, commitment to CAADP values and principles have been
achieved has not always produced the expected results.
• Several policy outcomes have failed to produce the expected impact on
development outcomes.
• Improving data quality is critical in designing, implementing and
monitoring policy-relevant evidence in support of CAADP/Malabo
agenda.
• Continued learning from both failed and successful pathways.
• Develop a clear theory of change for post-Malabo Agenda.

9. THANK YOU