How Jeremy Rifkin's Zero Marginal Cost Society could disrupt the Food&Beverages Industry

1. Global food production.
An impending disruption.

2. A G E N D A
• INTRODUCTION
• PAST DEVELOPMENT
• STATUS QUO AND NEAR TERM
• LONG TERM OUTLOOK

3. Accelerating demand and stagnating resources
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World Population in Bln
Arable land developing nations in Mln ha
50.3% global increase in calorie consumption since 1999
3Bln TONS of cereals for both food and feed by 2050
Projected global population of 9Bln PEOPLE
PRODUCTION would need to DOUBLE in the
developing world
370Mln potentially UNDERNOURISHED
PROBLEMS from rapid URBANIZATION and an
ever declining RURAL WORKFORCE alongside a
growing demand for BIOENERGY are the key challenges
0 1000 1250 1500 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
Source: HLEF2050, Statista
Arable land developed nations in Mln ha

4. A G E N D A
• INTRODUCTION
• PAST DEVELOPMENT
• STATUS QUO AND NEAR TERM
• LONG TERM OUTLOOK

5. The single provider
CONSUMER AND
“PRODUCER”
STONE AGE
KEY POINTS
The individual engaged in no, recorded form of trade,
primary focus on survival
No economy, thus no intermediation
MARGINAL REVENUE
+ More energy
+ Lower chances of famine-related death
MARGINAL COST
- Higher chance of food-related death
- Longer exposure to natural elements

6. Emergence of communal infrastructure
UNTIL MIDDLE AGES
KEY POINTS
As individuals settle into small colonies a rudimentary
division of labor takes place
Real economy, commodity barter
MARGINAL REVENUE
+ Limited, related to the utility and shelf life of the
product
MARGINAL COST
- Extremely high due to no mechanization
PRODUCER CONSUMER

7. Pre-globalization food network
PRODUCER CONSUMER
FOREIGN
CONSUMER
UNTIL 19th CENTURY
KEY POINTS
Flourishing trade, development of international trade
routes
Extensive trade, primarily no-perishables
MARGINAL REVENUE
+ Limited due to insufficient shelf-life
+ Higher than before due to introduction of currency
MARGINAL COST
- High due to low mechanization
- CAPEX intensive production and logistics

8. A G E N D A
• INTRODUCTION
• PAST DEVELOPMENT
• STATUS QUO AND NEAR TERM
• LONG TERM OUTLOOK

9. Current distribution value chain
NOW
KEY POINTS
Fully globalized trade, with complex international supply
chain. Production geographically focused
Inequality in distribution, different food standards,
protectionist national subsidies
MARGINAL REVENUE
+ E-Commerce food sales push consumption
MARGINAL COST
- Medium due to complex logistics and access
- Global collaboration and coordination further
reduces MC
PRODUCER
3rd PARTY
B2B
IM
CONSUMER
WIP
PL

10. Disintermediation of post-processing operations
NEXT 20 YEARS
KEY POINTS
Fully digitalized trade, with direct international supply
chain. Production geographically predominantly
focused
Reduced inequality in distribution through global
access, unified food and health standards
MARGINAL REVENUE
+ Greater reach due to shorter distribution
+ Greater product fit due to closer relation to client
MARGINAL COST
- Reduced due to disintermediation in B2C logistics
PRODUCER
3rd PARTY
B2B
IM
CONSUMER
WIP
PL

11. A G E N D A
• INTRODUCTION
• PAST DEVELOPMENT
• STATUS QUO AND NEAR TERM
• LONG TERM OUTLOOK

12. Completely decentralized, resource-neutral production
NEXT 80 YEARS
KEY POINTS
Effectively no resource scarcity, F&B corp. as service
providers, local decentralized production
Autonomous self-maintaining logistics supply chain,
primarily no-perishables
MARGINAL REVENUE
+ The more consumers the greater the network effects
MARGINAL COST
- Zero
Note: Classical revenue models might be revised
PROSUMER PROSUMER

13. ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING
LOCAL PROCESSING
Full product range producible
Highest sanity and food standards
Self maintaining through e.g. pyrolysis
Holistic automation of operation
CELLULAR AGRICULTURE
NEAR INFINITE RESOURCES
Local fresh produce production
Decentral network of providers
Upgradeable cell cultures
UAV / UGV LOGISTICS
AUTONOMOUS DISTRIBUTION
Self-organizing logistics
infrastructure
Facilitates exchange of locally
produced products and
replenishment
BLOCKCHAIN
SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE
Provides digital infrastructure to
ensure seamless M2M
communication
Modular software design to allow
adaptation and scalability
Foreseeable enabler-technologies