GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICA

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Presentation of Dr. Ousmane Badiane at the Global Food Policy Report 2013 Launch at Dakar - April 7, 2014

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  • Double click on the Millions Fed image to play the MF trailer video, which is 1 minute, 34 seconds long
  • Double click on the Millions Fed image to play the MF trailer video, which is 1 minute, 34 seconds long
  • Double click on the Millions Fed image to play the MF trailer video, which is 1 minute, 34 seconds long
  • Double click on the Millions Fed image to play the MF trailer video, which is 1 minute, 34 seconds long
  • GFPR Ousmane Badiane Presentation - IFPRI AFRICA

    1. 1. 2013 IPFRI Global Food Policy Report AFRICA OUSMANE BADIANE Director for Africa | International Food Policy Research Institute
    2. 2. Progress in CAADP implementation 01 Food Policy Development and Issues In Africa in 2013 Resilience agenda in West Africa 02 Input subsidy policies03
    3. 3. Progress in CAADP implementation 01 Food Policy Development and Issues In Africa in 2013 Resilience agenda in West Africa 02 Input subsidy policies03
    4. 4. CAADP in 2013…•Launched in 46 countries •39 signed Compacts •28 country investment plans •2 regional compacts •Ecowas Regional Agency for Agriculture and Food •Ecowas Regional Fund in 2012
    5. 5. CAADP in 2013…•Benin, Malawi, Nigeria, and Senegal Joined New Alliance •Progress in implementation by first six countries: BF CIV ETH GH MoZ TZ •Bulk of donor commitment honored •Grow Africa Investment commitments on track
    6. 6. CAADP in 2013…•Advancing Mutual Accountability •Two major training events in Dakar •IFPRI/ReSAKSS TA for improved JSRs •Methodology, tools, inclusivity • Ghana, Rwanda, Moz launched JSRs •Burkina, Senegal, Tanzania, Malawi, E thiopia next
    7. 7. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET – BY RECs Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 COMESA Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 ECCAS Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 ECOWAS Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 SADC
    8. 8. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY - COMESA Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 COMESA
    9. 9. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY - ECCAS Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 ECCAS
    10. 10. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY - ECOWAS Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 ECOWAS
    11. 11. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY - SADC Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 SADC
    12. 12. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY RECs Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 COMESA Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 ECCAS Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 ECOWAS Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 SADC
    13. 13. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY - COMESA Agriculture expenditure share by country - COMESA
    14. 14. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY - ECCAS Agriculture expenditure share by country - ECCAS
    15. 15. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY - ECOWAS Agriculture expenditure share by country - ECOWAS
    16. 16. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY - SADC Agriculture expenditure share by country - SADC
    17. 17. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF PUBLIC AG. EXPENDITURE – 2003 - 2010 Source: Benin and Yu. ATOR 2012.
    18. 18. Progress in CAADP implementation 01 Food Policy Development and Issues In Africa in 2013 Resilience agenda in West Africa 02 Input subsidy policies03
    19. 19. Resilience Key events in 2013… •AU, Lula Inst., FAO Partnership to End Hunger by 2025 •NPCA Nutrition Capacity Initiative •Integration of nutrition into NAIPs •Regional AGIR roadmap •Ecowas Food Reserve
    20. 20. THE NATURE OF THE RECENT CRISIS IN THE SAHEL: NOT A PRODUCTION CRISIS
    21. 21. REGIONAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE: THE SUPPLY STABILIZATION CHANNELCoted'Ivoire ECOWAS Togo Guinea Benin BurkinaFaso GuineaBissau Ghana Nigeria Niger Senegal Mali Gambia Liberia 0 10 20 30 40 50 ECOWAS Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 COMESA Comoros Egypt Uganda Burundi DRC Kenya Madagascar Angola Namibia Malawi Sudan Swaziland Zambia Rwanda Zimbabwe Mauritius 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 COMESA Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 SADC South.Africa Angola Namibia Malawi Mozambique Swaziland Zambia Lesotho Zimbabwe Bostowana Mauritius 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 SADC cereal production instability, 1980--2010 The difference between the average regional production volatility levels and individual country volatility indicates scope of domestic market stabilization through regional trade
    22. 22. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 NumberofcountryPairs Production Similarity Index COMESA ECOWAS SADC Similarity of production patterns within RECs, 2007-2011 SPECIALIZATION AND TRADE EXPANSION POTENTIAL More scope for trade Less scope for trade
    23. 23. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 NumberofCountryPairs Export Similarity Index COMESA ECOWAS SADC Similarity of export patterns within RECs, 2007-2011 SPECIALIZATION AND TRADE EXPANSION POTENTIAL More scope for trade Less scope for trade
    24. 24.  Baseline = 2000-2007  SIM1 = 0.5% reduction in trade cost annually 2013 – 2020  SIM2 = 50% increase in yields by 2020  SIM3 = Combine SIM1 and SIM2 ALTERNATIVE POLICY OPTIONS TO EXPAND REGIONAL TRADE
    25. 25. 0 5 10 15 20 25 BurkinaFaso CapeVerde Chad Gambia Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal Percentage BASE SIM1 SIM2 SIM3 CHANGE IN REGIONAL IMPORTS SAHELIAN COUNTRIES BY 2020 UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
    26. 26. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 BurkinaFaso CapeVerde Chad Gambia Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal Percentage BASE SIM1 SIM2 SIM3 CHANGE IN REGIONAL EXPORTS SAHELIAN COUNTRIES BY 2020 UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
    27. 27. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Baseline SIM1 SIM2 SIM3 PercentageCHANGE IN TOTAL WEST AFRICAN INTRA-REGIONAL EXPORTS BY 2020 UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
    28. 28. Progress in CAADP implementation 01 Food Policy Development and Issues In Africa in 2013 Resilience agenda in West Africa 02 Input subsidy policies03
    29. 29. THEY CAN BOOST PRODUCTDION IN SHORT RUN THEY ARE NOT CERTAIN TO RAISE INPUTS USE AND YIELDS ONCE REMOVED (BROOKS 2012) THEY DISTORT COSTS OF FACTORS, LEADING TO INEFFICIENT ALLOCATION OF INPUTS THEY MAY BYPASS NASCENT LOCAL INPUT DEALERS (BANFUL 2009, BUMB ET AL., 2011; TAKESHIMA ET AL, FORTHCOMING) THEY HAVE BEEN PRONE TO BAD TARGETING AND LEAKAGES (MASON AND RICKER-GILBERT, 2012) EXCESSIVE LEAKAGE BENEFITS LARGER FARMERS FAILURE TO REACH THE POOREST AND MOST VULNERABLE HH 1 WHAT DOES THE EVIDENCE TELLS US? 3 2 4 5
    30. 30. THEY ARE VERY COSTLY FISCALLY: GHANA: FERTILIZER SUBSIDIES: 17 % OF MOFA BUDGET COSTS TRIPLED FROM GHS 29 TO GHS 90 MILL. OVER LAST 3 YEARS COULD REACH 35% OF BUDGET IN 2020. (BENIN ET AL., 2012) MALAWI: FERTILIZER SUBSIDIES: 74% OF AG BUDGET IN 2008/09 AND 6.6% OF COUNTRY’S GDP (DORWARD AND CHIRA, 2011). ZAMBIA: FERTILIZER AND SEED SUBSIDIES: 40% OF AG BUDGET BETWEEN 2004 AND 2011 (MASON AND RICKER-GILBERT, 2012) THEY LEAD TO SERIOUS MACRO IMPLICATIONS IN THE LONG RUN SERIOUS FISCAL DEFICIT / FOREIGN EXCHANGE SHORTAGES CURRENCY OVERVALUATION DECREASED COMPETITIVENESS SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH WHAT DOES THE EVIDENCE TELL US? 5 6
    31. 31. WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE INPUT POLICIES IT IS THE ABSENCE OF A CRITICAL MASS OF:  OPERATORS  NETWORKS  INFRASTRUCTURE, AND  SERVICES IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT INPUTS ARE AVAILABLE AT TIMES AND PLACES NEEDED AT REASONABLE COST
    32. 32. WHAT IS THE SOLUTION? PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE INPUT POLICIES IT IS THE PROMOTION OF:  COST COMPETITIVE  PRIVATE SECTOR BASED  SMALL-HOLDER FRIENDLY INPUT PROCUREMENT AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
    33. 33. UNDERSTANDING THE COST OF SUPPLYING FERTILIZERS Source: Bumb, Johnson and Fuentes, 2012 *Averaged across Ghana, Mali, Senegal, and Nigeria
    34. 34. 1 ADOPT POLICIES THAT SUPPORT EXPANSION OF FERTILIZER MARKET BY:  REMOVING TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF BARRIERS  RATIONALIZING FERTILIZER REGULATIONS AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS o PRODUCT HARMONIZATION o TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS AVOID DIRECT GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT WHICH INVARIABLY  BECOMES FISCALLY UNSUSTAINABLE  DELAYS DEVELOPMENT OF FERTILIZER MARKETS CONCENTRATE GOVERNMENT EFFORTS ON:  STRENGTHENING HUMAN AND INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY FOR POLICY AND REGULATION  IMPROVING ACCESS TO FINANCE AND MARKETING SERVICES,  INCLUDING TARGETED, COST EFFECTIVE, PRIVATE SECTOR BASED SUBSIDIES HOW TO REDUCE POLICY BOTTLENECKS AND LOWER COST 2 3
    35. 35. ETHIOPIA: LOWERING DELIVERY COST Source: Guo et al., 2009 SUCCESSFUL POLICIES TO RAISE FERTILIZER USE
    36. 36. THANK YOU

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